Since we're doing a lot of talking about all things draft as well as trading up and down, I'm including a link to a Substack article by a real NFL draft and player metrics gearhead, Steven Patton.
I'm not going to get into a lot of detail on it as it will take me 2 or 3 reads/re-reads to really understand what it says. It has a deep dive into trading up and down as well as how much (or little) the transaction yields each partner in the transaction. For real stat geeks, it is a treasure trove. For many others, likely just a headache.
1. It looks like Poles is ranked at #11 in the NFL as a GM. Green Bay's GM was #7. Lions' GM is #13th. Vikings GM at 27th. Considering it is based on only 2 seasons (with 1 being a tank year) that is decent.
2. Drafting a non-premium position on Day-1 of the draft is an ignorant waste of a draft pick.
3. OT and DL (IDL & Edge) rule as far as non-QB value when picked in the first 64 picks of the draft. WR > IOL though.
4. On day-1 draft picks, QB's of all the positions have a MUCH greater increase in surplus value in that 2nd season. Other day-1 picks are dwarfed in comparison.
5. Hit rates and 95th percentile outcomes favor (in order of value): QB, WR, OT, OG, Edge... and the rest.
Feel free to correct me if I got any of that wrong. My head hurt after trying to decipher all of that data. My overall reaction to the data is to consider OT the best bet for our #9 pick in this draft, when you factor in where the hit rates were averaging (as far as when the positions were "on average" drafted). WR and interior OL looked like good bets in the 2nd round. Edge was 5th, and that's a bit disappointing considering the average draft data point for them was 1st round. There must be a number of misses with the Edge drafting (when you factor in the high draft pick investment there of 1st round average).
I have found that the guys who do the real heaving lifting always give you a headache when you try to understand their work. I've read it once, first thing this morning. Then I had to do a lot of errands and just got back in the house. I was serious when I said I need to read this two or 3 times.
1. It looks like Poles is ranked at #11 in the NFL as a GM. Green Bay's GM was #7. Lions' GM is #13th. Vikings GM at 27th. Considering it is based on only 2 seasons (with 1 being a tank year) that is decent.
2. Drafting a non-premium position on Day-1 of the draft is an ignorant waste of a draft pick.
3. OT and DL (IDL & Edge) rule as far as non-QB value when picked in the first 64 picks of the draft. WR > IOL though.
4. On day-1 draft picks, QB's of all the positions have a MUCH greater increase in surplus value in that 2nd season. Other day-1 picks are dwarfed in comparison.
5. Hit rates and 95th percentile outcomes favor (in order of value): QB, WR, OT, OG, Edge... and the rest.
Feel free to correct me if I got any of that wrong. My head hurt after trying to decipher all of that data. My overall reaction to the data is to consider OT the best bet for our #9 pick in this draft, when you factor in where the hit rates were averaging (as far as when the positions were "on average" drafted). WR and interior OL looked like good bets in the 2nd round. Edge was 5th, and that's a bit disappointing considering the average draft data point for them was 1st round. There must be a number of misses with the Edge drafting (when you factor in the high draft pick investment there of 1st round average).
I have found that the guys who do the real heaving lifting always give you a headache when you try to understand their work. I've read it once, first thing this morning. Then I had to do a lot of errands and just got back in the house. I was serious when I said I need to read this two or 3 times.
But in general, I agree with your take on it.
I think we should contact bearsinhouston and verify that the guy does, in fact, possess a genuine MSU degree. I'm just thinking we should have verification that he is qualified in this area before we believe he knows what he is talking about here.
