DRAFT WEEK Final Poll

dachuckster
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DRAFT WEEK Final Poll Apr 24, 2024 7:43:17 GMT -6 shark86 likes this

Post by dachuckster on Apr 24, 2024 7:43:17 GMT -6

Apr 24, 2024 7:01:48 GMT -6 davidl said:

Apr 23, 2024 22:15:42 GMT -6 mpbears68 said:

I think that's very possible. Wouldn't be my first choice but I admit there's a case for him. Poles hinted today he favors DT over DE.

It was more than a hint. Eberflus sold him on Murphy, and now Poles is preparing us for it, even if Odunze is on the board. On Brugler’s rankings, Odunze is #6 and Murphy #16. If possible, I’d rather trade down for Newton plus 2nd round pick than take Murphy at #9.

While I completely agree with your thoughts on this, I am beginning to think that there are multiple teams in the top 10 who would trade down for the right price. Unless the number of teams wanting to trade up into the top 10 (aka buyers) is really greater than the number of teams who want to trade down out of the top 10 (aka sellers), it is a buyers' market. The trade yield for the seller gets reduced.

So, Poles may feel he will get the best value by staying at #9. But, in all honesty, I haven't a clue as to who wants to do what and how Poles has all the prospects ranked as to their potential value to the Bears.

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JABF
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DRAFT WEEK Final Poll Apr 24, 2024 8:03:29 GMT -6

Post by JABF on Apr 24, 2024 8:03:29 GMT -6

Apr 24, 2024 7:43:17 GMT -6 dachuckster said:

So, Poles may feel he will get the best value by staying at #9. But, in all honesty, I haven't a clue as to who wants to do what and how Poles has all the prospects ranked as to their potential value to the Bears.

+1
I get the feeling the Bears have prepared their draft board and it probably is unique - no two NFL teams' boards are going to be exactly 100% alike. Fit matters. I think us fans believe there is some magical and perfectly sequential ranking of these 1st round prospects. But a guy who might be best at #9 for the Bears may not be who would be best for another NFL team. Poles needs to pick the guy who best impacts the Bears team... the one who MOST makes the overall team better. Yes, fit matters. It matters a lot.

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Last Edit: Apr 24, 2024 8:05:43 GMT -6 by JABF

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bearsinhouston
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DRAFT WEEK Final Poll Apr 24, 2024 8:31:27 GMT -6 brasilbear likes this

Post by bearsinhouston on Apr 24, 2024 8:31:27 GMT -6

Apr 23, 2024 22:03:27 GMT -6 davidl said:

Apr 22, 2024 21:29:31 GMT -6 mpbears68 said:

He's the best edge in this class by far IMO. If not for his neck history, he'd be a surefire top-7 pick. Yes, it's a risk but he has played 2 seasons w/o incident since being cleared to return. He also has the prototypical scheme fit, size, and length that Poles/Flus have repeatedly said they want.

Man, if Poles is ok with his medical eval, he's the defense player I'm most excited about in this draft for us. You hit on Latu and this defense is immediately elite.

Alt/Odunze/Latu -- those are my 3 targets but honestly still don't know where Poles is going with this.

I'm waiting for Thursday morning to vote. I just don't know.

After reading quotes from Poles in The Athletic, if Odunze is gone before #9, he’s going to take Murphy.

Edit: The proverbial cat is out of the bag. The Bears have already decided they are going with Murphy at #9. Adam Schefler nailed it.

I'm not convinced. I want to see what he actually does.

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mpbears68
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DRAFT WEEK Final Poll Apr 24, 2024 8:58:43 GMT -6 brasilbear likes this

Post by mpbears68 on Apr 24, 2024 8:58:43 GMT -6

Apr 24, 2024 5:06:13 GMT -6 bearsinhouston said:

Apr 23, 2024 22:15:42 GMT -6 mpbears68 said:

I think that's very possible. Wouldn't be my first choice but I admit there's a case for him. Poles hinted today he favors DT over DE.

But is Murphy really the best DT? He doesn't like Newton?

I'm not a fan of either option but yeah you better be right if you're gonna go to that well again after doing it twice last draft.

We are gonna learn about how they really feel about Dexter this draft. Not very positive if they draft another DT in round 1.

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DRAFT WEEK Final Poll Apr 24, 2024 9:02:49 GMT -6 dachuckster and brasilbear like this

Post by JABF on Apr 24, 2024 9:02:49 GMT -6

Apr 24, 2024 8:58:43 GMT -6 mpbears68 said:

Apr 24, 2024 5:06:13 GMT -6 bearsinhouston said:

But is Murphy really the best DT? He doesn't like Newton?

I'm not a fan of either option but yeah you better be right if you're gonna go to that well again after doing it twice last draft.

We are gonna learn about how they really feel about Dexter this draft. Not very positive if they draft another DT in round 1.

+1
I don't think anyone knows what Poles is going to do. And nothing wrong with that.

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DRAFT WEEK Final Poll Apr 24, 2024 9:04:45 GMT -6 brasilbear likes this

Post by mpbears68 on Apr 24, 2024 9:04:45 GMT -6

Apr 24, 2024 7:01:48 GMT -6 davidl said:

Apr 23, 2024 22:15:42 GMT -6 mpbears68 said:

I think that's very possible. Wouldn't be my first choice but I admit there's a case for him. Poles hinted today he favors DT over DE.

It was more than a hint. Eberflus sold him on Murphy, and now Poles is preparing us for it, even if Odunze is on the board. On Brugler’s rankings, Odunze is #6 and Murphy #16. If possible, I’d rather trade down for Newton plus 2nd round pick than take Murphy at #9.

It would be a totally-Bears thing to do to pass up a higher rated WR for "their" defense guy.

I hope Poles tells Flus that he was kept as HC and a DL-guru was brought in at DC so do what you're paid to do with what you have. I'm definitely not a fan of drafting any DT in round 1.

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DRAFT WEEK Final Poll Apr 24, 2024 9:06:31 GMT -6 JABF and brasilbear like this

Post by mpbears68 on Apr 24, 2024 9:06:31 GMT -6

Apr 24, 2024 7:43:17 GMT -6 dachuckster said:

Apr 24, 2024 7:01:48 GMT -6 davidl said:

It was more than a hint. Eberflus sold him on Murphy, and now Poles is preparing us for it, even if Odunze is on the board. On Brugler’s rankings, Odunze is #6 and Murphy #16. If possible, I’d rather trade down for Newton plus 2nd round pick than take Murphy at #9.

While I completely agree with your thoughts on this, I am beginning to think that there are multiple teams in the top 10 who would trade down for the right price. Unless the number of teams wanting to trade up into the top 10 (aka buyers) is really greater than the number of teams who want to trade down out of the top 10 (aka sellers), it is a buyers' market. The trade yield for the seller gets reduced.

So, Poles may feel he will get the best value by staying at #9. But, in all honesty, I haven't a clue as to who wants to do what and how Poles has all the prospects ranked as to their potential value to the Bears.

Unless there's a QB there at #9, I don't see many teams being eager to trade up. Besides, they could wait till #10 and still get ahead of Minnesota.

I have a feeling we are gonna stick-and-pick at #9.

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DRAFT WEEK Final Poll Apr 24, 2024 9:15:46 GMT -6

Post by brasilbear on Apr 24, 2024 9:15:46 GMT -6

I wonder what talks they have had with Allen and his reps about a new contract. If the FO feels like they can resign Allen it might impact what they do. I'd rather they upgrade at WR because I don't have much faith that Allen plays more than 70% of the season because of injury.

I don't have an opinion of the DT/DEs and am not privy to conversations the FO has had internally or with the HC. I can guess that Flus wants a DT, but I'm guessing based on how the Bears have acted in prior drafts and FAs.

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dachuckster
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DRAFT WEEK Final Poll Apr 24, 2024 9:17:25 GMT -6 JABF likes this

Post by dachuckster on Apr 24, 2024 9:17:25 GMT -6

Since we're doing a lot of talking about all things draft as well as trading up and down, I'm including a link to a Substack article by a real NFL draft and player metrics gearhead, Steven Patton.

I'm not going to get into a lot of detail on it as it will take me 2 or 3 reads/re-reads to really understand what it says. It has a deep dive into trading up and down as well as how much (or little) the transaction yields each partner in the transaction. For real stat geeks, it is a treasure trove. For many others, likely just a headache.

pattonanalytics365.substack.com/p/evaluating-nfl-draft-picks

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DRAFT WEEK Final Poll Apr 24, 2024 10:36:02 GMT -6

Post by JABF on Apr 24, 2024 10:36:02 GMT -6

Apr 24, 2024 9:17:25 GMT -6 dachuckster said:

Since we're doing a lot of talking about all things draft as well as trading up and down, I'm including a link to a Substack article by a real NFL draft and player metrics gearhead, Steven Patton.

I'm not going to get into a lot of detail on it as it will take me 2 or 3 reads/re-reads to really understand what it says. It has a deep dive into trading up and down as well as how much (or little) the transaction yields each partner in the transaction. For real stat geeks, it is a treasure trove. For many others, likely just a headache.

pattonanalytics365.substack.com/p/evaluating-nfl-draft-picks

If I'm reading that correctly,

1. It looks like Poles is ranked at #11 in the NFL as a GM. Green Bay's GM was #7. Lions' GM is #13th. Vikings GM at 27th. Considering it is based on only 2 seasons (with 1 being a tank year) that is decent.

2. Drafting a non-premium position on Day-1 of the draft is an ignorant waste of a draft pick.

3. OT and DL (IDL & Edge) rule as far as non-QB value when picked in the first 64 picks of the draft. WR > IOL though.

4. On day-1 draft picks, QB's of all the positions have a MUCH greater increase in surplus value in that 2nd season. Other day-1 picks are dwarfed in comparison.

5. Hit rates and 95th percentile outcomes favor (in order of value): QB, WR, OT, OG, Edge... and the rest.

Feel free to correct me if I got any of that wrong. My head hurt after trying to decipher all of that data. My overall reaction to the data is to consider OT the best bet for our #9 pick in this draft, when you factor in where the hit rates were averaging (as far as when the positions were "on average" drafted). WR and interior OL looked like good bets in the 2nd round. Edge was 5th, and that's a bit disappointing considering the average draft data point for them was 1st round. There must be a number of misses with the Edge drafting (when you factor in the high draft pick investment there of 1st round average).

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Last Edit: Apr 24, 2024 10:37:03 GMT -6 by JABF

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