Stats show taking a QB at 1.01 is your best bet of Success

GB has only done it once though, in the 60's and he started 2 games in the NFL. Last 3 guys, 2 HoF's and 2 sb winners came from another teams 2nd rd pick and taking a qb to sit for 4 years drafted in the 20's; same w/what appears to be their next franchise qb. It doesn't HAVE to be one way; the thing about first overall is you are getting the best shot at the best player. 

I was in Indy for my daughter to have surgery thurs evening through yesterday, but lets take a look at 2004-2023 drafts, 1st overall vs 1st rd. # of qb's taken and who has 4k yards and 30tds(unfair imo as there is a recency bias on those types of #'s, really the norm for franchise/elite qb's up until recently was 3-3.5 k and 25+. but we'll start at the OG posts #'s. 
*4k/30 pretty obvious, 3.5k and 25+ indicate it they didn't meet the 4k or 30 standard, but in the same season could have met 1 or the other, ie 4k yards would meet 3.5k but only had 27 tds wouldn't meet 30 tds

Since 2004 there have been 60 QB's taken in the 1st round. 14 first overall, 15 2-5, 9 6-10 and 22 after the top 10
27 threw for 4k yards 45%, 18 30 tds 30%, 16 did those in the same season 27%,
32 threw for 3.5k yards 53%, 25 25 tds 42%, 24 did those in the same season 40%.

1st overall picks there were 14 since 2004
10 threw for 4k yards 71%, 6 30+ tds 43%, 6 did those in the same season 43%
11 threw for 3.5k yards 79%, 9 25 tds, 64%, 9 did those in the same season 64%

2-5th picks, 15 since 04
6 threw for 4k yards, 40%, 3 30 tds 20%, 3 threw for both in the same season 20%
6 threw for 3.5k yards 40%, 6 25 tds 40%, 5 threw for both in the same season 33%

6-10th picks 9 since 04
4 threw for 4k yards 44%, 4 for 30+ tds 44%, 3 in the same season 33%
4 threw for 3.5k yards 44%, 3 for 25 tds, 33$, 3 in the same season 33%

11-32nd. 22 drafted
7 threw for 4k yards 32%, 5 threw for 30+ tds 23%, 4 in the same season 18%
11 threw for 3.5k yards 50%, 7 threw for 25tds 32 %, 7 in the same season 32%

Now since it's been a more qb/offensive driven league even since 04 compared to the 90's and previously I also did since 2014

32 qb's drafted since 2014
14 threw for 4k yards, 44%, 10 for 30+ tds 31%, 9 in the same season 28%
16 threw for 3.5k yards 50%, 12 for 25 tds 38%, 11 in the same season 34%

first overall 7 drafted since 2014
5 threw for 4k yards 71%, 3 for 30+ tds 43%, 3 in the same season 43%
5 threw for 3.5 k yards 71 %, 5 for 25 tds, 71%, 5 in the same season 71%

2-5 10 drafted since 2014
4 threw for 4k yards 40%, 1 threw for 30+ tds 10%, 1 in the same season 10%
4 threw for 3.5k yards 40%, 3 for 25 tds 30%, 2 in the same season 20%

5 drafted 6-10
3 threw for 4k yards 60%, 3 threw for 30+ tds 60%, 3 in the same season 60%
3 threw for 3.5k yards 50%, 2 for 25+ tds, 40%, 2 in the same season 40%

10 drafted 11th-32nd
2 threw for 4k yards 20%, 3 for 30+ tds 30%, 2 in the same season 20%
3 threw for 3.5k yards 40%, 2 for 25 tds 20%, 2 in the same season 20%


So yes, the league has made it easier on qbs, and seems to have decided to do so even more frequently since the 2000's. Oddly enough your best shot at drafting a qb that throws for 4k yards and 30+ tds is drafting 6-10, probably b/c your team is in a better position to support said qb, and very possibly could afford to move up from mid teens ish area to outside the top 5 w/out it being to exorbitant, which allows them to continue to build the team and the O around the qb. 

Also, 4k and 30+ tds, is an absurd number to expect, most don't do it, and most don't do it more than a few times in their career. Hell most don't do 3.5 and 25+ more than a handful. Its a testament to what Reid had done in KC b/c even Alex Smith pulled down 4k and did 3.5k and 25+ tds. And some of these other modern nfl Offenses that are extremely close to pulling it off year over year.

*JF has done NONE of this. Fields #'s are historically sad, he wouldn't have great #'s in the 90's. Sorry that isn't all on the OC, nor on the supporting cast. Some of that is on him. Just like it was w/Mitch. IMO JF is a more extreme version of him actually. Stunted in his ability to process w/in the playcall, but good outside of it and good when well-practiced via scripted plays. JF is just a far superior athlete w/a far better deep ball.  

Take all this w/a grain of salt, it doesn't mean C-Will is going to be one of those 4 in 10 hits, or whoever else might got #1 overall; but it should indicate they will be far superior to what JF is doing. I'm not going to go 2.5 and 25, but I guarantee most of the top 10 that have played 4+ years have hit those #'s, or at least close, they are very average for the league now. If your qb isn't throwing 2.5 and 25 you don't have a franchise starting qb, and if you do have a qb throwing for those, he's not even really a franchise qb, he's average and you should be looking for better.