Stats show taking a QB at 1.01 is your best bet of Success

It is a calculated risk either way. Some of us differ in how we estimate the risks.  Poles job is not just to improve the roster. With #1 and #9 plus $60+ million cap space, that’s a given. No. His job is to get ahead of Packers and Lions in 2024, and field a Super Bowl ready team in 2025.  I’m not going to “crown his ass” (Denny Green) until I see the finished product.  The Lions have been beating him in the draft. That needs to change.

Unfortunately, all the statistical stuff is a nice mental exercise to go through (and fun to discuss).  But well over 90% of this stuff is simply a correlation between two things (events, actions, measurements, whatever).  And there is no guarantee that there is anything more than a simple random association between the two.  If you have a correlative relationship between two things, there is a potentially enormous amount of work needed to establish that there even a true association between the two.

One of my other pastimes in my retirement has been in the true crime and, to a lesser extent, an interest in forensic psychology.  There is currently a minor storm of interest between the comparative lengths of your ring and index fingers and psychotic behavior.  It may sound crazy, but it is really going on (link, link, etc).  Personally, I suspect this is just one of the random associations.  Maybe if they find a common DNA sequence in your genome for both.  But short of that, I simply find the discussion somewhat amusing and, in all likelihood, pointless.

But, back to football, I am sure there are some really telling things that can accurately identify factors for success in NFL QBs.  But it seems that they are much deeper and require a huge amount of time and effort to identify.  I am still going through the link that someone here (brasilbear ??) posted on YT about Caleb WIlliams (link).  It is over an hour long and is extremely detailed (and can be very tedious to watch).  But this is the kind of work needed to determine if a prospect will be successful or not.  And unfortunately, not much else wil do.

My wife recently retired from teaching in a local public high school.  I showed this finger stuff to her, and she laughed so hard that I thought she was going pee.  We both instantly had thought that if this caught on that school psychologists will start measuring kids' fingers lengths and referring them for counseling.