Stats show taking a QB at 1.01 is your best bet of Success

bearsinhouston
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Stats show taking a QB at 1.01 is your best bet of Success Jan 24, 2024 11:23:48 GMT -6 JABF likes this

Post by bearsinhouston on Jan 24, 2024 11:23:48 GMT -6

Jan 24, 2024 11:15:46 GMT -6 JABF said:

Jan 24, 2024 8:49:31 GMT -6 mpbears68 said:

You "get there" vast majority of time with high level QB play. Yes, I know you can cite a few SBs that were won by teams with mediocre QBs like Dilfer.

Far less common

+1,000
If a team gets a top-tier QB1 it makes sustained winning so much more doable. Sustained winning. The teams with great QBs watch pretty darned good football every year. That's what we need here in Chicago, at least that is what I want. Fields, Caleb, Maye or whomever they end up rolling with this year, I am hoping they get a guy who can do this. I don't want a Dilfer level QB. Yes you can win a SB with a QB like that. It's the exception not the rule though. Look through that list of SB winning QBs over the past decades. By and large those QBs were top-tier guys and also you notice their names often appear in multiple years of starting SB quarterbacks. That's what we need here.

Thank God we've got the people that can pick them. Wait.... how about we just trade for whoever Green Bay picks to follow Love. Those guys just know how to do it.

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davidl
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Stats show taking a QB at 1.01 is your best bet of Success Jan 24, 2024 11:27:49 GMT -6 butkus3595 and bearsinhouston like this

Post by davidl on Jan 24, 2024 11:27:49 GMT -6

Jan 24, 2024 11:15:46 GMT -6 JABF said:

Jan 24, 2024 8:49:31 GMT -6 mpbears68 said:

You "get there" vast majority of time with high level QB play. Yes, I know you can cite a few SBs that were won by teams with mediocre QBs like Dilfer.

Far less common

+1,000
If a team gets a top-tier QB1 it makes sustained winning so much more doable. Sustained winning. The teams with great QBs watch pretty darned good football every year. That's what we need here in Chicago, at least that is what I want. Fields, Caleb, Maye or whomever they end up rolling with this year, I am hoping they get a guy who can do this. I don't want a Dilfer level QB. Yes you can win a SB with a QB like that. It's the exception not the rule though. Look through that list of SB winning QBs over the past decades. By and large those QBs were top-tier guys and also you notice their names often appear in multiple years of starting SB quarterbacks. That's what we need here.

I know all that. However, there’s a saying in baseball, “It only takes one to hit.” One hit is all I want, and I want it ASAP, not two years after I’m dead. My dad died in 1983. I think about that sometimes.

Nobody here can convince me or butkus that Fields performance isn’t a hell of a lot better with Harrison, new OC, and OL upgrades. I’m done debating the point. Everybody here is locked in.

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JABF
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Stats show taking a QB at 1.01 is your best bet of Success Jan 24, 2024 11:41:44 GMT -6

Post by JABF on Jan 24, 2024 11:41:44 GMT -6

Jan 24, 2024 11:27:49 GMT -6 davidl said:

Jan 24, 2024 11:15:46 GMT -6 JABF said:

+1,000
If a team gets a top-tier QB1 it makes sustained winning so much more doable. Sustained winning. The teams with great QBs watch pretty darned good football every year. That's what we need here in Chicago, at least that is what I want. Fields, Caleb, Maye or whomever they end up rolling with this year, I am hoping they get a guy who can do this. I don't want a Dilfer level QB. Yes you can win a SB with a QB like that. It's the exception not the rule though. Look through that list of SB winning QBs over the past decades. By and large those QBs were top-tier guys and also you notice their names often appear in multiple years of starting SB quarterbacks. That's what we need here.

I know all that. However, there’s a saying in baseball, “It only takes one to hit.” One hit is all I want, and I want it ASAP, not two years after I’m dead. My dad died in 1983. I think about that sometimes.

Nobody here can convince me or butkus that Fields performance isn’t a hell of a lot better with Harrison, new OC, and OL upgrades. I’m done debating the point. Everybody here is locked in.

I am just in the middle watching it all go down. Munching my popcorn and hoping Poles gets it right. As far as what is "right" hey, I admit I don't know. This is why Poles gets paid the big bucks. He won't get a third 1st overall pick of the draft. Whether it's Caleb, Maye, HMJ, trade down or whatever. He's got to get THIS one right. I like to believe he will get it right. But I am not locked in as "knowing" myself what is best here. Just a dude on the sidewalk watching the parade go by :-)

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bearsinhouston
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Stats show taking a QB at 1.01 is your best bet of Success Jan 24, 2024 11:42:11 GMT -6

Post by bearsinhouston on Jan 24, 2024 11:42:11 GMT -6

Jan 24, 2024 11:27:49 GMT -6 davidl said:

Jan 24, 2024 11:15:46 GMT -6 JABF said:

+1,000
If a team gets a top-tier QB1 it makes sustained winning so much more doable. Sustained winning. The teams with great QBs watch pretty darned good football every year. That's what we need here in Chicago, at least that is what I want. Fields, Caleb, Maye or whomever they end up rolling with this year, I am hoping they get a guy who can do this. I don't want a Dilfer level QB. Yes you can win a SB with a QB like that. It's the exception not the rule though. Look through that list of SB winning QBs over the past decades. By and large those QBs were top-tier guys and also you notice their names often appear in multiple years of starting SB quarterbacks. That's what we need here.

I know all that. However, there’s a saying in baseball, “It only takes one to hit.” One hit is all I want, and I want it ASAP, not two years after I’m dead. My dad died in 1983. I think about that sometimes.

Nobody here can convince me or butkus that Fields performance isn’t a hell of a lot better with Harrison, new OC, and OL upgrades. I’m done debating the point. Everybody here is locked in.

Of course it will be. And yeah. Everyone is locked in. All we can do is wait and see

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AlexM
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Stats show taking a QB at 1.01 is your best bet of Success Jan 24, 2024 14:39:40 GMT -6 brasilbear likes this

Post by AlexM on Jan 24, 2024 14:39:40 GMT -6

Jan 24, 2024 11:27:49 GMT -6 davidl said:

Jan 24, 2024 11:15:46 GMT -6 JABF said:

+1,000
If a team gets a top-tier QB1 it makes sustained winning so much more doable. Sustained winning. The teams with great QBs watch pretty darned good football every year. That's what we need here in Chicago, at least that is what I want. Fields, Caleb, Maye or whomever they end up rolling with this year, I am hoping they get a guy who can do this. I don't want a Dilfer level QB. Yes you can win a SB with a QB like that. It's the exception not the rule though. Look through that list of SB winning QBs over the past decades. By and large those QBs were top-tier guys and also you notice their names often appear in multiple years of starting SB quarterbacks. That's what we need here.

I know all that. However, there’s a saying in baseball, “It only takes one to hit.” One hit is all I want, and I want it ASAP, not two years after I’m dead. My dad died in 1983. I think about that sometimes.

Nobody here can convince me or butkus that Fields performance isn’t a hell of a lot better with Harrison, new OC, and OL upgrades. I’m done debating the point. Everybody here is locked in.

Thankfully, you are not locked in

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shark86
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Stats show taking a QB at 1.01 is your best bet of Success Jan 24, 2024 17:02:40 GMT -6 AlexM likes this

Post by shark86 on Jan 24, 2024 17:02:40 GMT -6

Jan 24, 2024 14:39:40 GMT -6 AlexM said:

Jan 24, 2024 11:27:49 GMT -6 davidl said:

I know all that. However, there’s a saying in baseball, “It only takes one to hit.” One hit is all I want, and I want it ASAP, not two years after I’m dead. My dad died in 1983. I think about that sometimes.

Nobody here can convince me or butkus that Fields performance isn’t a hell of a lot better with Harrison, new OC, and OL upgrades. I’m done debating the point. Everybody here is locked in.

Thankfully, you are not locked in

Well, after sharing porn around Halas Hall, my wife has me locked out!

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paytonisgod
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Stats show taking a QB at 1.01 is your best bet of Success Jan 24, 2024 17:11:08 GMT -6

Post by paytonisgod on Jan 24, 2024 17:11:08 GMT -6

Jan 23, 2024 23:00:46 GMT -6 davidl said:

Jan 23, 2024 22:47:59 GMT -6 motm said:

Ok here is a question for you. If you have an Aaron Rodgers QB you can draft and own the division for 20 years with one super bowl vs going with a sup bar QB and only winning a Super Bowl because of a super team you created that can last one year. What would you pick?

Sure, if you can GUARANTEE the guy is the next AR. You can’t . By the stats you posted, the failure rate is 30% for QBs drafted #1.

That's a funny way of saying there is a 70% success rate. No gambler would pass on that bet.

Also do you believe Fields has a greater percentage chance to suddenly become that much better in one year despite 3 years of play where he hasn't?

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dachuckster
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Stats show taking a QB at 1.01 is your best bet of Success Jan 24, 2024 18:07:54 GMT -6

Post by dachuckster on Jan 24, 2024 18:07:54 GMT -6

Jan 24, 2024 17:11:08 GMT -6 paytonisgod said:

Jan 23, 2024 23:00:46 GMT -6 davidl said:

Sure, if you can GUARANTEE the guy is the next AR. You can’t . By the stats you posted, the failure rate is 30% for QBs drafted #1.

That's a funny way of saying there is a 70% success rate. No gambler would pass on that bet.

Also do you believe Fields has a greater percentage chance to suddenly become that much better in one year despite 3 years of play where he hasn't?

I've researched it another way. I look at who has achieved the highest levels of performance. Like what QBs have had multiple SB appearances. And only about 30% were even taken in the 1st round.

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paytonisgod
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Stats show taking a QB at 1.01 is your best bet of Success Jan 24, 2024 20:23:29 GMT -6

Post by paytonisgod on Jan 24, 2024 20:23:29 GMT -6

Jan 24, 2024 18:07:54 GMT -6 dachuckster said:

Jan 24, 2024 17:11:08 GMT -6 paytonisgod said:

That's a funny way of saying there is a 70% success rate. No gambler would pass on that bet.

Also do you believe Fields has a greater percentage chance to suddenly become that much better in one year despite 3 years of play where he hasn't?

I've researched it another way. I look at who has achieved the highest levels of performance. Like what QBs have had multiple SB appearances. And only about 30% were even taken in the 1st round.

Given that there are literally dozens and dozens of QBs selected outside of the 1st round in past years that makes the likelihood you'll win a SB with one selected in later rounds even less. The difference would be like a 1 in 3 chance of selecting a QB in the 1st round who can get you to the SB vs a 1 in 10 chance selecting a QB in the 2nd round or later who might do the same. For every Brock Purdy or Tom Brady there are 10 other QBs selected who went nowhere.

On that alone I'll take the 1 in 3 chance over the 1 in 10*.

*I'm just spitballing here, the odds are likely worse than even that.

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JABF
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Stats show taking a QB at 1.01 is your best bet of Success Jan 24, 2024 21:13:18 GMT -6

Post by JABF on Jan 24, 2024 21:13:18 GMT -6

Jan 24, 2024 20:23:29 GMT -6 paytonisgod said:

Jan 24, 2024 18:07:54 GMT -6 dachuckster said:

I've researched it another way. I look at who has achieved the highest levels of performance. Like what QBs have had multiple SB appearances. And only about 30% were even taken in the 1st round.

Given that there are literally dozens and dozens of QBs selected outside of the 1st round in past years that makes the likelihood you'll win a SB with one selected in later rounds even less. The difference would be like a 1 in 3 chance of selecting a QB in the 1st round who can get you to the SB vs a 1 in 10 chance selecting a QB in the 2nd round or later who might do the same. For every Brock Purdy or Tom Brady there are 10 other QBs selected who went nowhere.

On that alone I'll take the 1 in 3 chance over the 1 in 10*.

*I'm just spitballing here, the odds are likely worse than even that.

Yeah, I keep thinking it's not easy getting a great franchise QB no matter how we parse the stats. I think we can all agree on that. And even if you do get a guy who has that level of talent, the team still needs to have the ability to do something with that talent. I am so hoping the Bears can figure it out and make the right moves here, this year. We are all tired of watching bad offense here in Chicago. It sure would be a nice change to watch a Bears offense that is solid.

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Stats show taking a QB at 1.01 is your best bet of Success

Post by bearsinhouston on Jan 24, 2024 11:23:48 GMT -6

Post by davidl on Jan 24, 2024 11:27:49 GMT -6

Post by JABF on Jan 24, 2024 11:41:44 GMT -6

Post by bearsinhouston on Jan 24, 2024 11:42:11 GMT -6

Post by AlexM on Jan 24, 2024 14:39:40 GMT -6

Post by shark86 on Jan 24, 2024 17:02:40 GMT -6

Post by paytonisgod on Jan 24, 2024 17:11:08 GMT -6

Post by dachuckster on Jan 24, 2024 18:07:54 GMT -6

Post by paytonisgod on Jan 24, 2024 20:23:29 GMT -6

Post by JABF on Jan 24, 2024 21:13:18 GMT -6