Stats show taking a QB at 1.01 is your best bet of Success

QBs drafted No. 1 overall (20 total) in the last 30 years hit these benchmarks at an astonishing rate.



4,000+ yards: 70%

30+ TDs: 45%

80+ starts: 81%

Playoff win: 70%

Pro Bowl: 70%



Bryce Young, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, and Tim Couch are the only busts by these standards.




Looking at QBs drafted 2-32 (63 total), the hit rates plummet.



4,000+ yards: 25%

30+ TDs: 24%

80+ starts: 35%

Playoff win: 38%

Pro Bowl: 33%



Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Daunte Culpepper hit.






You'd think trimming down to top-10 and top-5 picks would help, but it doesn't.



Picks 2-10 (34 QBs)

4,000+ yards: 29%

30+ TDs: 26%

80+ starts: 41%

Playoff win: 54%

Pro Bowl: 63%



Picks 2-5 (23 QBs)

4,000+ yards: 26%

30+ TDs: 22%

80+ starts: 39%

Playoff win: 35%

Pro Bowl: 43%