Cannot go back That far to delve I to stats, to many changes in the rules and evolution of the game. Anything before 2000 ,and really there were other rules changes after that, so even 23 years is to far back. Nothing beyond probably 15 yes is accurate. And notice how those that fell outside the trend tended to be from more recent years.
Not disagreing with the findings perse, I think most understand that the top pick should give you the best odds at the best player, kid of the point of the pick. Just the data set was poorly conceived, and my guess was bc the numbers were more blurred so he went back farther to get the contrast he needed.
I argue QB's of today have it far easier with rules helping them get to those milestones that Peyton Manning and Tom Brady had to go through. WR's are almost always going to get calls in their favor. No way a QB like Jarred Goff would survive a 2000 style offense and put up 4k passer ratings, 30+ TDs, and make it up to the super bowl.
It can also be the fact that the more recent players have less games to prove the data right. He's matching them off of 1 playoff win, 1 pro bowl, 1 4k passing season, 1 30+ TD season. 80+ games (Which all the new players where the data isn't there yet) don't have as many x marks on them cause time is required to get them.
That's the point motm, it is FAR easier. So going back 30 years hurts non first overall guys.
I argue QB's of today have it far easier with rules helping them get to those milestones that Peyton Manning and Tom Brady had to go through. WR's are almost always going to get calls in their favor. No way a QB like Jarred Goff would survive a 2000 style offense and put up 4k passer ratings, 30+ TDs, and make it up to the super bowl.
It can also be the fact that the more recent players have less games to prove the data right. He's matching them off of 1 playoff win, 1 pro bowl, 1 4k passing season, 1 30+ TD season. 80+ games (Which all the new players where the data isn't there yet) don't have as many x marks on them cause time is required to get them.
That's the point motm, it is FAR easier. So going back 30 years hurts non first overall guys.
I argue even with the smaller sample size, you can still see the same trend. Let's go back 5 years where rules are still somewhat similar.
2023 so far it looks like CJ is the best one. But did ownership force them to pick young? (Many in the panthers forum say so) 2022 no Qbs taken #1 overall. 2021 out of the QB's taken. Trevor is the best one in the class. Number 1 overall. 2020 out of the QB's taken. Joe is the best one in the class. Number 1 overall. 2019 out of the QB's taken. Kyle is the best one in the class. Number 1 overall.
As of now 3/4 of them match. Kyle might have the least amount of check marks off the list but he came super close to a 4k passing season only needing 29 more yards. With a WR in this year draft. Expect him to explode. Again I'm not saying the #1 overall is going to bring us a Manning. Just that you have a QB that has a better track record.
I thought the stats were interesting and impressive.
When you just look at the list, there's a lot of really good names there and a bunch of pretty good ones too. There's only a small number of big busts.
That's the point motm, it is FAR easier. So going back 30 years hurts non first overall guys.
I argue even with the smaller sample size, you can still see the same trend. Let's go back 5 years where rules are still somewhat similar.
2023 so far it looks like CJ is the best one. But did ownership force them to pick young? (Many in the panthers forum say so) 2022 no Qbs taken #1 overall. 2021 out of the QB's taken. Trevor is the best one in the class. Number 1 overall. 2020 out of the QB's taken. Joe is the best one in the class. Number 1 overall. 2019 out of the QB's taken. Kyle is the best one in the class. Number 1 overall.
As of now 3/4 of them match. Kyle might have the least amount of check marks off the list but he came super close to a 4k passing season only needing 29 more yards. With a WR in this year draft. Expect him to explode. Again I'm not saying the #1 overall is going to bring us a Manning. Just that you have a QB that has a better track record.
Maybe, no idea bc he didn't do it. But again, if you look at the list of non 1st exceptions there were more that were recent then old, which tipped me off to why he went back that far
QBs drafted No. 1 overall (20 total) in the last 30 years hit these benchmarks at an astonishing rate.
4,000+ yards: 70%
30+ TDs: 45%
80+ starts: 81%
Playoff win: 70%
Pro Bowl: 70%
Bryce Young, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, and Tim Couch are the only busts by these standards.
Looking at QBs drafted 2-32 (63 total), the hit rates plummet.
4,000+ yards: 25%
30+ TDs: 24%
80+ starts: 35%
Playoff win: 38%
Pro Bowl: 33%
Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Daunte Culpepper hit.
You'd think trimming down to top-10 and top-5 picks would help, but it doesn't.
Picks 2-10 (34 QBs)
4,000+ yards: 29%
30+ TDs: 26%
80+ starts: 41%
Playoff win: 54%
Pro Bowl: 63%
Picks 2-5 (23 QBs)
4,000+ yards: 26%
30+ TDs: 22%
80+ starts: 39%
Playoff win: 35%
Pro Bowl: 43%
Very interesting, especially the first stat, because it's not like Carr and Couch were busts, they were good QB's, they just didn't live up to 1st overall pick hype. And obviously, the jury is still out on Young. JaMarcus Russell, IMO, is the only true "BUST" listed.
QBs drafted No. 1 overall (20 total) in the last 30 years hit these benchmarks at an astonishing rate.
4,000+ yards: 70%
30+ TDs: 45%
80+ starts: 81%
Playoff win: 70%
Pro Bowl: 70%
Bryce Young, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, and Tim Couch are the only busts by these standards.
Looking at QBs drafted 2-32 (63 total), the hit rates plummet.
4,000+ yards: 25%
30+ TDs: 24%
80+ starts: 35%
Playoff win: 38%
Pro Bowl: 33%
Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Daunte Culpepper hit.
You'd think trimming down to top-10 and top-5 picks would help, but it doesn't.
Picks 2-10 (34 QBs)
4,000+ yards: 29%
30+ TDs: 26%
80+ starts: 41%
Playoff win: 54%
Pro Bowl: 63%
Picks 2-5 (23 QBs)
4,000+ yards: 26%
30+ TDs: 22%
80+ starts: 39%
Playoff win: 35%
Pro Bowl: 43%
Very interesting, especially the first stat, because it's not like Carr and Couch were busts, they were good QB's, they just didn't live up to 1st overall pick hype. And obviously, the jury is still out on Young. JaMarcus Russell, IMO, is the only true "BUST" listed.
Carr actually seemed to me to be a good QB when he started. But he absolutely got pounded. Relentlessly. And then he just was never the same. I have heard (and used) the term "he got Carred" to refer to ruining a QB. We have Carred a lot in Chicago.
Carr actually seemed to me to be a good QB when he started. Nut he absolutely got pounded. Relentlessly. And then he just was never the same. I have heard (and used) the term "he got Carred" to refer to ruining a QB. We have Carred a lot in Chicago.
+1 I figure 1/3 of the equation for offense success is the QB, and 1/3 is the coach (includes scheme, game planning & for sure play-calling), and 1/3 is the supporting talent on the offensive unit (OL, receivers, TE unit, RBs...yes, even your RBs matter to the success of a QB to some extent). But the meatball fans just figure you "draft a QB" and call it all "good" because a good QB is all you need - and if the offense fails it is on the QB.
My hope is that Warren/Poles/Eberflus can give the QB the best coaching and player support as the team moves forward. Even a 2nd tier QB1 can win a super bowl if the other 2/3's of the equation is fixed here. I get so very tired of watching this franchise make the same mistakes on offense over and over and over again. It is time to figure it out and fix those 2/3's of the equation that have been broken here for a long time. Then watch us begin to have success on offense in general, and with our QB1 in particular - no matter who that QB will be in 2024.
Carr actually seemed to me to be a good QB when he started. Nut he absolutely got pounded. Relentlessly. And then he just was never the same. I have heard (and used) the term "he got Carred" to refer to ruining a QB. We have Carred a lot in Chicago.
+1 I figure 1/3 of the equation for offense success is the QB, and 1/3 is the coach (includes scheme, game planning & for sure play-calling), and 1/3 is the supporting talent on the offensive unit (OL, receivers, TE unit, RBs...yes, even your RBs matter to the success of a QB to some extent). But the meatball fans just figure you "draft a QB" and call it all "good" because a good QB is all you need - and if the offense fails it is on the QB.
My hope is that Warren/Poles/Eberflus can give the QB the best coaching and player support as the team moves forward. Even a 2nd tier QB1 can win a super bowl if the other 2/3's of the equation is fixed here. I get so very tired of watching this franchise make the same mistakes on offense over and over and over again. It is time to figure it out and fix those 2/3's of the equation that have been broken here for a long time. Then watch us begin to have success on offense in general, and with our QB1 in particular - no matter who that QB will be in 2024.
So going by the stats above. Would you prefer Fields or Williams?
Bears: Never had a QB throw 4k yards Never had a QB throw 30 TDs in a season Only one QB to play for more than 80 games (Jay Cutler 102) Can win a playoff game (Jay Cutler) Pro Bowl (Trubisky)
I don't see Fields doing any of the above. Maybe a Pro Bowl at most. You don't really start a rebuild until you got the right QB. I don't see Fields being the QB that can bring us to the promise land. I even take a Goff or Stafford QB which Fields isn't close to as talented as those QB.
You don't really start a rebuild until you got the right QB.
I believe you need a baseline of talent (coaches and players) to support a new QB. That doesn't mean you have to have everything perfect. But there is a minimum base of coaching and player talent needed for a QB to transition successfully from college ball to being a starting QB1 in the NFL. Whether we draft a QB or keep Fields here, we need the coaching and players here THIS YEAR to best support the QB. Bears have failed there for years now. My point is that I'm fine if they draft yet another QB1 this year, but if they do, my hope, motm, is that the Bears don't end there - that they ALSO focus on the offense coaching and supporting player talent to give that guy a fighting chance to succeed here. Our OL is broken. It has been broken. Our WR room - other than DJ - is trash. We have not had a decent Offense coaching staff in a long time here. These things matter - the new QB will need these things in place THIS year in order to best transition to the NFL successfully. JMO.
