"Nobody KNOWS anything" - drafting Caleb Williams would be a bold move for the Bears and NOT a sure thing.
This Brian Billick interview was a good dose of reality and common sense regarding the Bears quarterback situation. It's not pro-Field or pro-Williams or any other QB. He just lays it out there that this is a really tough call for the Bears no matter what they end up deciding. He said you start with the premise that nobody knows anything. He says no matter what you THINK you know, 50% of these guys bust. Period.
He wrote a book about it, "The Q Factor: The Elusive Search for Elite NFL Quarterbacks and Other Great Leaders" - everyone talks about "sure things" and talk about a guy being a "generational quarterback" if you draft him. Nobody knows anything. Period. He said it's a crap shoot.
And that's the bottom line here. I agree, it is a tough call for Chicago. They have to get this right, but it is not a sure thing no matter what the meatball fans & the talking heads in the podcasts spout. I think of all the stuff I've listened to or read on this upcoming decision - THIS - was the most accurate. Nobody knows anything, because in the end it is a crap shoot.
It’s always a crap shoot, but not so much with the #1 pick. The data that motm posted says you have a 70% chance of success with the #1 pick — not 50/50. Of course, this assumes Poles is at least an average GM.
Since most people around here think he’s a genius, his odds should be at least 80-85%.
"Nobody KNOWS anything" - drafting Caleb Williams would be a bold move for the Bears and NOT a sure thing.
This Brian Billick interview was a good dose of reality and common sense regarding the Bears quarterback situation. It's not pro-Field or pro-Williams or any other QB. He just lays it out there that this is a really tough call for the Bears no matter what they end up deciding. He said you start with the premise that nobody knows anything. He says no matter what you THINK you know, 50% of these guys bust. Period.
He wrote a book about it, "The Q Factor: The Elusive Search for Elite NFL Quarterbacks and Other Great Leaders" - everyone talks about "sure things" and talk about a guy being a "generational quarterback" if you draft him. Nobody knows anything. Period. He said it's a crap shoot.
And that's the bottom line here. I agree, it is a tough call for Chicago. They have to get this right, but it is not a sure thing no matter what the meatball fans & the talking heads in the podcasts spout. I think of all the stuff I've listened to or read on this upcoming decision - THIS - was the most accurate. Nobody knows anything, because in the end it is a crap shoot.
I COMPLETELY agree. They plain don't know. The one thing I feel good about is their knowledge of Justin Fields. It is a crap shoot with any of the other guys. They KNOW JF. So they should know if they feel he is not going to get any better of if they can turn him into a winning QB. Since they know this, it makes it easier to know whether to stay or move on. If they stay, the decision is made. If they move on, it is still a crapshoot as to who is "the guy", but at least they should be able to know whether to move on or not. They know enough about Fields to make the right decision there.
"Nobody KNOWS anything" - drafting Caleb Williams would be a bold move for the Bears and NOT a sure thing.
This Brian Billick interview was a good dose of reality and common sense regarding the Bears quarterback situation. It's not pro-Field or pro-Williams or any other QB. He just lays it out there that this is a really tough call for the Bears no matter what they end up deciding. He said you start with the premise that nobody knows anything. He says no matter what you THINK you know, 50% of these guys bust. Period.
He wrote a book about it, "The Q Factor: The Elusive Search for Elite NFL Quarterbacks and Other Great Leaders" - everyone talks about "sure things" and talk about a guy being a "generational quarterback" if you draft him. Nobody knows anything. Period. He said it's a crap shoot.
And that's the bottom line here. I agree, it is a tough call for Chicago. They have to get this right, but it is not a sure thing no matter what the meatball fans & the talking heads in the podcasts spout. I think of all the stuff I've listened to or read on this upcoming decision - THIS - was the most accurate. Nobody knows anything, because in the end it is a crap shoot.
It’s always a crap shoot, but not so much with the #1 pick. The data that motm posted says you have a 70% chance of success with the #1 pick — not 50/50. Of course, this assumes Poles is at least an average GM.
Since most people around here think he’s a genius, his odds should be at least 80-85%.
David, I have to disagree. The first pick guarantees you get who you want. It doesn't guarantee the guy you want is the right guy
It’s always a crap shoot, but not so much with the #1 pick. The data that motm posted says you have a 70% chance of success with the #1 pick — not 50/50. Of course, this assumes Poles is at least an average GM.
Since most people around here think he’s a genius, his odds should be at least 80-85%.
David, I have to disagree. The first pick guarantees you get who you want. It doesn't guarantee the guy you want is the right guy
I didn’t say it guarantees anything. But motm’s historical data says there’s a 70% success rate.
It’s always a crap shoot, but not so much with the #1 pick. The data that motm posted says you have a 70% chance of success with the #1 pick — not 50/50. Of course, this assumes Poles is at least an average GM.
Since most people around here think he’s a genius, his odds should be at least 80-85%.
David, I have to disagree. The first pick guarantees you get who you want. It doesn't guarantee the guy you want is the right guy
Nothing is guarantee but going by data. Your best bet for a 4k passer, pro bowl QB, one playoff win, 30+ TDs, and starting 80+ games is the first pick.
David, I have to disagree. The first pick guarantees you get who you want. It doesn't guarantee the guy you want is the right guy
I didn’t say it guarantees anything. But motm’s historical data says there’s a 70% success rate.
The point is this is not a sure thing that some want you to believe. And that includes the Justin Fields decision. No matter what final decision Poles makes there is no sure thing here. That 70% "success" rate may be accurate. Different people would define "success" with that pick differently though. Just for example, were guys like Jaimis Winston or Baker Mayfield busts? They both most certainly were Pro Bowl players (2015 and 2023 respectively). How about Heisman winner Sam Bradford? JaMarcus Russell surely was. Carson Palmer made 3 Pro Bowls but man, I wasn't impressed with him. Alex Smith... maybe a solid 2nd tier-QB1. Tim Couch and Courtney Brown were busts...
From 1992 to 1995 the #1 picks were: Steve Emtman, Drew Bledsoe, Dan Wilkinson, Ki-Jana Carter (1990 was the mighty Jeff George out of Illinois). As I go over the list - going back to 1936 - there were a lot of 2nd tier and below guys taken at #1. LOL, that's almost 90 years (even older than me :-)
I just get frustrated when people talk like this is a lock that the #1 pick of the draft will be a top-tier player. And making a Pro Bowl or two doesn't necessarily define a player as Tier-1 for a career. Mitch Trubisky made the Pro Bowl in 2018 and no way is he an elite QB, right? Granted we only traded up to pick-2 of the draft to get him.
And I know you definitely understand this... I'm not saying you don't. Do we draft Williams/Maye at #1? I'm not saying we don't or shouldn't. Just pointing out it is risky. Go in with your eyes open and realize the guy drafted isn't a sure thing no matter what the meatballs say about "generational talent" guys. There ARE no sure things in the draft. Never has been.
I didn’t say it guarantees anything. But motm’s historical data says there’s a 70% success rate.
The point is this is not a sure thing that some want you to believe. And that includes the Justin Fields decision. No matter what final decision Poles makes there is no sure thing here. That 70% "success" rate may be accurate. Different people would define "success" with that pick differently though. Just for example, were guys like Jaimis Winston or Baker Mayfield busts? They both most certainly were Pro Bowl players (2015 and 2023 respectively). How about Heisman winner Sam Bradford? JaMarcus Russell surely was. Carson Palmer made 3 Pro Bowls but man, I wasn't impressed with him. Alex Smith... maybe a solid 2nd tier-QB1. Tim Couch and Courtney Brown were busts...
From 1992 to 1995 the #1 picks were: Steve Emtman, Drew Bledsoe, Dan Wilkinson, Ki-Jana Carter (1990 was the mighty Jeff George out of Illinois). As I go over the list - going back to 1936 - there were a lot of 2nd tier and below guys taken at #1. LOL, that's almost 90 years (even older than me :-)
I just get frustrated when people talk like this is a lock that the #1 pick of the draft will be a top-tier player. And making a Pro Bowl or two doesn't necessarily define a player as Tier-1 for a career. Mitch Trubisky made the Pro Bowl in 2018 and no way is he an elite QB, right? Granted we only traded up to pick-2 of the draft to get him.
And I know you definitely understand this... I'm not saying you don't. Do we draft Williams/Maye at #1? I'm not saying we don't or shouldn't. Just pointing out it is risky. Go in with your eyes open and realize the guy drafted isn't a sure thing no matter what the meatballs say about "generational talent" guys. There ARE no sure things in the draft. Never has been.
Motms’ data quantifies what production a QB must achieve to be in the 70%. If Williams meets that standard, he’s a legit QB1. That doesn’t mean he’ll ever win a Super Bowl. There is a 30% risk factor on the other side. What’s the risk factor with Fields? That’s what Poles needs to calculate.