Just another QB that was not the first taken in the draft who ended up being better than the “experts” predicted.
happens more often than not, actually
For every Purdy or Brady there are 10 QBs drafted in later rounds that are never more than back ups, if that. No one is always going to be right. It's about playing the percentages. It's luck that the 49ers ended up with a guy like Purdy. The percentages are much greater in the first round than the later rounds. That's why teams pick QBs there instead of hoping for miracle in the later rounds.
For every Purdy or Brady there are 10 QBs drafted in later rounds that are never more than back ups, if that. No one is always going to be right. It's about playing the percentages. It's luck that the 49ers ended up with a guy like Purdy. The percentages are much greater in the first round than the later rounds. That's why teams pick QBs there instead of hoping for miracle in the later rounds.
Totaly agree, but two things can be true at the same time. Most of the time the top pros[ect does not end up being the top performer. You just have to get lucky. Or use the right mix of pixie dust.
For every Purdy or Brady there are 10 QBs drafted in later rounds that are never more than back ups, if that. No one is always going to be right. It's about playing the percentages. It's luck that the 49ers ended up with a guy like Purdy. The percentages are much greater in the first round than the later rounds. That's why teams pick QBs there instead of hoping for miracle in the later rounds.
Yep, at least 10:1 ratio. Most of those late rounders get drafted and are never heard from again. They may get a start or two when injuries hit and that's it.
The dropoff in QB talent is massive as the draft goes on. Everyone loves to cite Brady, Purdy, Warner, etc., but those guys are the very rare exceptions. Heck, Bagent is probably a better QB than most late rounders and no one wants him to be their long-term starter.
For every Purdy or Brady there are 10 QBs drafted in later rounds that are never more than back ups, if that. No one is always going to be right. It's about playing the percentages. It's luck that the 49ers ended up with a guy like Purdy. The percentages are much greater in the first round than the later rounds. That's why teams pick QBs there instead of hoping for miracle in the later rounds.
Yep, at least 10:1 ratio. Most of those late rounders get drafted and are never heard from again. They may get a start or two when injuries hit and that's it.
The dropoff in QB talent is massive as the draft goes on. Everyone loves to cite Brady, Purdy, Warner, etc., but those guys are the very rare exceptions. Heck, Bagent is probably a better QB than most late rounders and no one wants him to be their long-term starter.
The one truth is that it is not easy to draft a great QB. There are no sure things. Busts happen.
Just another QB that was not the first taken in the draft who ended up being better than the “experts” predicted.
happens more often than not, actually
Thirteen QBs who have wone more than 1 SB were drafted all over the place. Six were taken as #1 picks (Plunkett, both Mannings, Aikman, Elway and Bradshaw). Three more were taken in the first round (Griese, Roethlisberger and Mahomes). And the rest (Starr, Staubach, Montana and Brady) were all in the 3rd round or much later.
For every Purdy or Brady there are 10 QBs drafted in later rounds that are never more than back ups, if that. No one is always going to be right. It's about playing the percentages. It's luck that the 49ers ended up with a guy like Purdy. The percentages are much greater in the first round than the later rounds. That's why teams pick QBs there instead of hoping for miracle in the later rounds.
Totaly agree, but two things can be true at the same time. Most of the time the top prospect does not end up being the top performer. You just have to get lucky. Or use the right mix of pixie dust.
There is a lot more going on than just where the QB was taken and the QBs skillset, etc. Using the 13 QBs above, look at Plunkett. He was a #1 pick and he won 2 SBs. But he was taken #1 by the Patriots. At the time the Patriots were one of the worst teams in the NFL. He was burned out, generally considered a complete bust and Al Davis brought him into the Raiders and let him chill for a season and resurrected Plunkett's career. He won the two SBs playing QB for the Raiders.
We can never forget that the team's roster, coaching staff and overall management (aka culture) might have as much to do with it as anything.
Thirteen QBs who have wone more than 1 SB were drafted all over the place. Six were taken as #1 picks (Plunkett, both Mannings, Aikman, Elway and Bradshaw). Three more were taken in the first round (Griese, Roethlisberger and Mahomes). And the rest (Starr, Staubach, Montana and Brady) were all in the 3rd round or much later.
Just a data point.
+1 Often I think about how every player and team is unique. Championship teams find a way to win, and it may be different than other teams who have won SB's before them. It does get a bit tiresome when someone points to a team/player and says to look at that - as if it were easy for ANYONE to replicate that. LOL. It's not possible because every situation is unique.
Thirteen QBs who have wone more than 1 SB were drafted all over the place. Six were taken as #1 picks (Plunkett, both Mannings, Aikman, Elway and Bradshaw). Three more were taken in the first round (Griese, Roethlisberger and Mahomes). And the rest (Starr, Staubach, Montana and Brady) were all in the 3rd round or much later.
Just a data point.
+1 Often I think about how every player and team is unique. Championship teams find a way to win, and it may be different than other teams who have won SB's before them. It does get a bit tiresome when someone points to a team/player and says to look at that - as if it were easy for ANYONE to replicate that. LOL. It's not possible because every situation is unique.
I am hoping that I get a better feeling about Flus this year. I have to be honest, he is not a guy that I am excited about being the Bears HC.
+1 Often I think about how every player and team is unique. Championship teams find a way to win, and it may be different than other teams who have won SB's before them. It does get a bit tiresome when someone points to a team/player and says to look at that - as if it were easy for ANYONE to replicate that. LOL. It's not possible because every situation is unique.
I am hoping that I get a better feeling about Flus this year. I have to be honest, he is not a guy that I am excited about being the Bears HC.
I keep reminding myself that his primary job is to be a leader of men. He has a coaching staff of 25 or so veteran guys who can do the more hands-on stuff. His job is to lead. And there are different styles of leadership. I admire the Andy Reid style. None of this rah-rah stuff. Andy is Andy. He has the respect of the men in that locker room (that's why I didn't think the Kelce thing was a big deal - because those men idolize Andy Reid... they love him, including Kelce. That is the kind of guy we need as HC here. Like many HC's, 'Flus want to call plays. That's okay, as long as he does a good job at it. But like you, I am hoping he has a great year and settles any fan feelings of doubt about him. LOL, so we'll see :-)
For every Purdy or Brady there are 10 QBs drafted in later rounds that are never more than back ups, if that. No one is always going to be right. It's about playing the percentages. It's luck that the 49ers ended up with a guy like Purdy. The percentages are much greater in the first round than the later rounds. That's why teams pick QBs there instead of hoping for miracle in the later rounds.
They also drafted Trey Lance. Motm posted the research on this. The QB drafted #1 has a 30% failure rate. For the rest of the entire first round it is about 50%, and it doesn’t matter much where you pick in the first round. You can hit gold outside the first round, so if you need a QB, go ahead and buy a lottery ticket.
For every Purdy or Brady there are 10 QBs drafted in later rounds that are never more than back ups, if that. No one is always going to be right. It's about playing the percentages. It's luck that the 49ers ended up with a guy like Purdy. The percentages are much greater in the first round than the later rounds. That's why teams pick QBs there instead of hoping for miracle in the later rounds.
They also drafted Trey Lance. Motm posted the research on this. The QB drafted #1 has a 30% failure rate. For the rest of the entire first round it is about 50%, and it doesn’t matter much where you pick in the first round. You can hit gold outside the first round, so if you need a QB, go ahead and buy a lottery ticket.
It is just so very hard to get this right. It's not like the Bears want to get it wrong. Same with the rest of the NFL... so many many teams can't get it right either. We all talk about percentages of this or that. But in the end it all comes down to the fact that the Bears have failed decade after decade to get it done. This is why I hate hearing that "can't miss" thing thrown around. Yes, the Bears could miss. Again.
