Far too much digital ink is being spent on the whole #1 pick and it's average value in history. All drafts are not equal. Some have a lot of good prospects others a bunch of duds. The important thing is the player who is going to be the #1 prospect and how he stacks up with picks across other drafts. Williams based on his performance and tape would be the 1st, or near the 1st, of every QB pick in the last 10 drafts compared to their tape coming out of college. I don't know if he is the best prospect since Luck, but he is definitely up there. You just can't pass on something like that.
I really don't get the weird contrarian vibe when it comes to Williams. It's likely he got a little overhyped the year before but now there's this strange backlash against him that goes way over the top. Certain people out there will watch his tape and pick out the tiniest problems and blow them up to crazy proportions while ignoring or disparage all the other incredible stuff he does.
Happens sometimes, I think it's media trying to find something to talk about; and b/c of social media people pick up on it and take it for more than what it really is. This didn't really happen until the NFL network and ESPN constant draft talk got fully ramped up in the early 00's.
I'm trying to take everything with a grain of salt. I also try to do my own research - and not base it on what others tell me to think. And I recognize how "stats" can be manipulated by people to "prove" baseless crap that is an inaccurate conclusion (we see it here on our message board too).
Happens sometimes, I think it's media trying to find something to talk about; and b/c of social media people pick up on it and take it for more than what it really is. This didn't really happen until the NFL network and ESPN constant draft talk got fully ramped up in the early 00's.
I'm trying to take everything with a grain of salt. I also try to do my own research - and not base it on what others tell me to think. And I recognize how "stats" can be manipulated by people to "prove" baseless crap that is an inaccurate conclusion (we see it here on our message board too).
Certain milestones matter, in the NFL qb's w/3, really now 4k yards, 30+ TD's. But the biggest stat is playoff wins. I know teams win in the playoffs. Teams get to the playoffs, and based on QB performance win in them.
KC had a great team, capable of winning in the playoffs, and still decided Smith wasn't it and drafted Mahomes, even a slight upgrade would have done it. Yet some teams allow guys like Dak, Cousins, Ryan to soak away their cap space and ability to build a team all for them to lose in the playoffs, like they always have; you can now add L-Jax to that mix, 1-4. Regular season stats mean nothing. How do players, not just qb's, perform against playoff caliber teams and in the playoffs.
Pay players based on that, not the regular season, let suckers like Dallas and JJ pay for those guys.
As for the draft, no matter what anyone thinks or says, 90+% of the guys drafted have the athletic ability to play in the NFL even in the last round. The question, and no one, not even scouts/gm's can truly know, is how dedicated are they to re-learning and preparing for the NFL. It's not college anymore. There aren't >1 quality DB's on a team, there aren't 1 or 2 good defenders on a team, and there aren't 1 OL and WR on a team. Every team has a quality QB, every team has 2-3 DB's that can guard most WR's. Every team has a legit OL and DL, every qb can make throws.
Difference isn't physical it's mental, emotional, it's the ability to stay disciplined w/millions of dollars to distract you. Are you still working out daily, even in the offseason, are you studying, practicing. My daughters current softball coach, and basketball coaches both say at HS and beyond, high level travel ball, the kids that make it practice daily, and it shows even if they aren't the best athletes.
Well imagine what happens in the pro's, when all of them are elite athletes? Now add in getting drafted by a team that has a quality GM/HC w/a culture and system in place that forces everyone to fall in line. When the HC knows what he needs at QB, and other key positions, instead of trying to learn on the job. Doesn't take long to turn things around when you know what type of player works and what doesn't.
Alex Smith wasn't good enough in SF w/Harbaugh so they moved on and Reid picks him up and boom, uses him to turn around the Chiefs year 1 of Reids reign. Alex Smith is prof of point that system matters. He was mid in SF and DC, but excelled under Reids O. It's not just a player is good or a bust. It's not just a coach changes everything to fit his players. The GM and Coach need to know what is needed from the players and to get those players. MJ is a great Westbrook like PG in most systems, trip dub machine, but not an all time GOAT 6time champ. Jackson and his staff w/the triangle O made him the Central part of the O and won 6 rings.
System matters, stability of the team matters(not constant turnover of gm/coaches) and players discipline and ability to work on their craft to point of near perfection matters. None of which has anything to do w/the players athletic ability. That's why the draft is a crap shoot and if you are building via the draft you better have a shit ton of picks and you better give your GM/HC more then 4 drafts to figure out what type of players work and don't.
...But the biggest stat is playoff wins. I know teams win in the playoffs. Teams get to the playoffs, and based on QB performance win in them.
KC had a great team, capable of winning in the playoffs, and still decided Smith wasn't it and drafted Mahomes, even a slight upgrade would have done it. Yet some teams allow guys like Dak, Cousins, Ryan to soak away their cap space and ability to build a team all for them to lose in the playoffs, like they always have; you can now add L-Jax to that mix, 1-4. Regular season stats mean nothing. How do players, not just qb's, perform against playoff caliber teams and in the playoffs.
Pay players based on that, not the regular season, let suckers like Dallas and JJ pay for those guys...
and this is the hardest thing because fan bases go nuts when favorite players or good players are let go. We all say fan bases don't matter, and its true that we as fans have very little to say in day-to-day or even season-to-season operations. But fans drive conversations, conversations drive media and all the owners/GMs want positive media attention. Imagine being the first team that lets Dak Cousins (see what I did there?) walk only to draft Mac Jones in the middle of the first round, or Davis Mills. GMs don't have the stones to do that. A team letting a tier 2 QB walk is not in a position to draft a high rated prospect, they are drafting about 20th in the first round. Anyone remember the flack that Lovie Smith caught when he bench Alex Brown for Mike Anderson following the SB season? Jones was a middling DE, a jag and various portions of the fan base went crazy!
SF is going to have a big decision in a year about Purdy. His $800,000 is going to jump to $50,000,000+. Do you pay him? Has he shown enough with the prime of the 2 WRS, RB and TE he has right now to justify that? Tough decision.
I once thought that McVay would dump Goff as soon as he could and go with a rookie for 5 years and then repeat. But then he traded for Stafford. Maybe SF will let Purdy play it out and then find another rookie.
...But the biggest stat is playoff wins. I know teams win in the playoffs. Teams get to the playoffs, and based on QB performance win in them.
KC had a great team, capable of winning in the playoffs, and still decided Smith wasn't it and drafted Mahomes, even a slight upgrade would have done it. Yet some teams allow guys like Dak, Cousins, Ryan to soak away their cap space and ability to build a team all for them to lose in the playoffs, like they always have; you can now add L-Jax to that mix, 1-4. Regular season stats mean nothing. How do players, not just qb's, perform against playoff caliber teams and in the playoffs.
Pay players based on that, not the regular season, let suckers like Dallas and JJ pay for those guys...
and this is the hardest thing because fan bases go nuts when favorite players or good players are let go. We all say fan bases don't matter, and its true that we as fans have very little to say in day-to-day or even season-to-season operations. But fans drive conversations, conversations drive media and all the owners/GMs want positive media attention. Imagine being the first team that lets Dak Cousins (see what I did there?) walk only to draft Mac Jones in the middle of the first round, or Davis Mills. GMs don't have the stones to do that. A team letting a tier 2 QB walk is not in a position to draft a high rated prospect, they are drafting about 20th in the first round. Anyone remember the flack that Lovie Smith caught when he bench Alex Brown for Mike Anderson following the SB season? Jones was a middling DE, a jag and various portions of the fan base went crazy!
SF is going to have a big decision in a year about Purdy. His $800,000 is going to jump to $50,000,000+. Do you pay him? Has he shown enough with the prime of the 2 WRS, RB and TE he has right now to justify that? Tough decision.
I once thought that McVay would dump Goff as soon as he could and go with a rookie for 5 years and then repeat. But then he traded for Stafford. Maybe SF will let Purdy play it out and then find another rookie.
When will caps limit pay per person? Like, rule that one guy cannot have more than 10% of the cap on the date of the contract!? Even 7-8% sounds good enough.
and this is the hardest thing because fan bases go nuts when favorite players or good players are let go. We all say fan bases don't matter, and its true that we as fans have very little to say in day-to-day or even season-to-season operations. But fans drive conversations, conversations drive media and all the owners/GMs want positive media attention. Imagine being the first team that lets Dak Cousins (see what I did there?) walk only to draft Mac Jones in the middle of the first round, or Davis Mills. GMs don't have the stones to do that. A team letting a tier 2 QB walk is not in a position to draft a high rated prospect, they are drafting about 20th in the first round. Anyone remember the flack that Lovie Smith caught when he bench Alex Brown for Mike Anderson following the SB season? Jones was a middling DE, a jag and various portions of the fan base went crazy!
SF is going to have a big decision in a year about Purdy. His $800,000 is going to jump to $50,000,000+. Do you pay him? Has he shown enough with the prime of the 2 WRS, RB and TE he has right now to justify that? Tough decision.
I once thought that McVay would dump Goff as soon as he could and go with a rookie for 5 years and then repeat. But then he traded for Stafford. Maybe SF will let Purdy play it out and then find another rookie.
When will caps limit pay per person? Like, rule that one guy cannot have more than 10% of the cap on the date of the contract!? Even 7-8% sounds good enough.
NFLPA, despite being run by hypocritical idiots, would never agree to that. Their motto is every man for himself, everyone gets as much as they can. The NFLPA celebrated the last adjustment to the CBA that brought new cap rules only to watch in horror as teams cut mid-priced vets to pay QBs more and teams filled rosters with league min vets. All that money that used to go to draft picks now goes to QBs.
When will caps limit pay per person? Like, rule that one guy cannot have more than 10% of the cap on the date of the contract!? Even 7-8% sounds good enough.
NFLPA, despite being run by hypocritical idiots, would never agree to that. Their motto is every man for himself, everyone gets as much as they can. The NFLPA celebrated the last adjustment to the CBA that brought new cap rules only to watch in horror as teams cut mid-priced vets to pay QBs more and teams filled rosters with league min vets. All that money that used to go to draft picks now goes to QBs.
Well, it sounds like fewer people are happy this way..
NFLPA, despite being run by hypocritical idiots, would never agree to that. Their motto is every man for himself, everyone gets as much as they can. The NFLPA celebrated the last adjustment to the CBA that brought new cap rules only to watch in horror as teams cut mid-priced vets to pay QBs more and teams filled rosters with league min vets. All that money that used to go to draft picks now goes to QBs.
Well, it sounds like fewer people are happy this way..
The only people unhappy are the fans and the mid-priced vets.
Owners have a cap, so they are protected from being idiots with their own money. Without a cap certain owners would spend the rest of the league into their dust, so the "less rich" owners are happy with a cap. the JJs of the world like the cap as well because "their hands are tied" when it comes to paying everyone.
Players are happy because they can get whatever they can talk an owner into, well all players except the mid-priced vets. The mid-priced vets are forced to sign smaller and smaller contracts each year as a class. Rookies and UDFA are happy because there are more roster spots held for them then in the past. Given equal ability (not counting experience) would a team rather pay a 5th CB a rookie/UDFA rate to cover kicks than a 6 year vet? Absolutely. Saves millions they can pour into EDGE, Tech-2 DTs, LTs and QBS.
Starting QBs are happy because they get whatever they want and tier 2 QBs are ecstatic. At the top, the elite QBs are living the life.
IMO Mahomes winning another SB with a receiving core made up of Kelce + Rice + nobodies is only going to push this model further. Teams still want that Elite AAA QB who can win SBs will less than elite tools around them. Draft well on DEF (which all GMs believe they can dp), pay your QB, 2-3 pieces on OFF, 2-3 pieces on DEF and paper over holes with FAs. The SF model didn't work (yes its a hot-take but we've all heard it), despite elite skill players across the board on OFF their bargain QB couldn't get it done. Mahomes > Purdy means KC > SF.
Post by dachuckster on Feb 13, 2024 16:59:37 GMT -6
I will be looking for this interview on WGN. Jarret Payton interviewing Kevin Warren. I went all through the comment and did a couple of internet searches. I do not see when this will hit, anywhere. So please post f you see when it will be broadcast.
Well, it sounds like fewer people are happy this way..
The only people unhappy are the fans and the mid-priced vets.
Owners have a cap, so they are protected from being idiots with their own money. Without a cap certain owners would spend the rest of the league into their dust, so the "less rich" owners are happy with a cap. the JJs of the world like the cap as well because "their hands are tied" when it comes to paying everyone.
Players are happy because they can get whatever they can talk an owner into, well all players except the mid-priced vets. The mid-priced vets are forced to sign smaller and smaller contracts each year as a class. Rookies and UDFA are happy because there are more roster spots held for them then in the past. Given equal ability (not counting experience) would a team rather pay a 5th CB a rookie/UDFA rate to cover kicks than a 6 year vet? Absolutely. Saves millions they can pour into EDGE, Tech-2 DTs, LTs and QBS.
Starting QBs are happy because they get whatever they want and tier 2 QBs are ecstatic. At the top, the elite QBs are living the life.
IMO Mahomes winning another SB with a receiving core made up of Kelce + Rice + nobodies is only going to push this model further. Teams still want that Elite AAA QB who can win SBs will less than elite tools around them. Draft well on DEF (which all GMs believe they can dp), pay your QB, 2-3 pieces on OFF, 2-3 pieces on DEF and paper over holes with FAs. The SF model didn't work (yes its a hot-take but we've all heard it), despite elite skill players across the board on OFF their bargain QB couldn't get it done. Mahomes > Purdy means KC > SF.
That's pretty much "it" in a nutshell (LOL, a long nutshell tho). You pretty much have to have a top-tier QB to win Super Bowls now. Winning with a 2nd tier guy may be possible but pretty much an aberration now. You need a top-tier coaching staff too. The rest of the supporting cast needs to be as good as you can get with the $$$ you have left after paying that QB. These QBs are in such limited supply that you can't just "get another one" in the draft... it might take awhile for that (unless you are Green Bay). Also, it makes sense to "make hay" with your rookie QB while you have him on that rookie contract. That's why it's hard to let a guy sit on the bench for a year or more of that rookie contract.
The problem is the NFL spent the last decade changing the rules in favor of QB play for their fanasty football and higher viewership. Unless the NFL goes back on "Player safety" for these rules they put down. QBs are going to continue being the most important position.
Let's look at Tom Brady for example.
2001, 2003, and 2004 champion with a 2019 Super Team visit. Took him 5 years to enter after the early 2000's. 2011 (Lost), 2014 (Won), 2017 (Won), 2017(Lost), 2018(Won), 2020 (Won, First year on a new team)
Just two different decades Brady went to 2 more Super Bowls and had some of the best stats in his career in the later part compared to the first 3. Mahomes have been to 4 Super Bowls and won 3 of them. I expect Mahomes to have a similar amount of Super Bowl wins as Brady.
Gone are the days of a Tier 2 QB getting you a ring with an elite defense and elite offense. You need a Tier 1 QB to get you those rings. Jackson is never going to get a ring. 1-4 in the playoffs. The one person I can see cometing with Mahomes if they get a new Head Coach is Josh Allen who is 5-5 in the playoffs and had an even better offense from 2020-2023 compared to Mahomes lead chiefs.
If Williams is truly a Tier 1 QB similar to Allen or Burrow. This franchise is set up for success the next 10-15 years. We don't have a Mahomes in the NFC to stop us. I would expect many Super Bowl runs going forward.