I have not studied all these QBs, but I have seen Nix, Penix, and Williams. I honestly have trouble seeing anything wrong with Nix. His 45/3 TD/int ratio is really impressive 4,500+ yards, 30 TDs, 77% accuracy, and excellent mobility. So what’s not to like? But I do think Poles will draft Williams unless he blows up the interview.
I did some spreadsheet work on the performance of 6 of the top QB draft prospects. Personally, I prefer to use their performance against ranked opponents as one of the more important metrics.
Here is what I came up with. The stats are all for the 2023 and 2022 seasons, exclusively. And they are ranked from the most successful to the least successful. I can open the source data up if anyone wants more detail.
Michael Penix, Jr JJ McCarthy Bo Nix Jayden Daniels Caleb Williams Drake Maye
I still think Penix is a 'best buy' option. Although Nix is not far off.
I have not studied all these QBs, but I have seen Nix, Penix, and Williams. I honestly have trouble seeing anything wrong with Nix. His 45/3 TD/int ratio is really impressive 4,500+ yards, 30 TDs, 77% accuracy, and excellent mobility. So what’s not to like? But I do think Poles will draft Williams unless he blows up the interview.
I did some spreadsheet work on the performance of 6 of the top QB draft prospects. Personally, I prefer to use their performance against ranked opponents as one of the more important metrics.
Here is what I came up with. The stats are all for the 2023 and 2022 seasons, exclusively. And they are ranked from the most successful to the least successful. I can open the source data up if anyone wants more detail.
Michael Penix, Jr JJ McCarthy Bo Nix Jayden Daniels Caleb Williams Drake Maye
Penix is great if his OL lets him sit in the pocket and throw darts to NFL caliber WRs. I think he will have problems adjusting to NFL pass rushers and secondaries. I wouldn’t draft him.
I don’t know so much about MCCarthy, but he strikes me as a second round prospect. Not sure.
I was just looking at scouting reports on nfldraftbuzz.com. They have a passing category called “release speed” Caleb’s rank is 73% and Bo Nix is 91%.
Interesting. Does it say how they come up with that?
From their web page, they say they combine time-to-throw, ball velocity, and accuracy when throwing under pressure. Nix 91% is the highest in this draft class. CJ Stroud was 87% last year.
Nix has improved, but wasn’t bad at Auburn. He was 9-4 as freshman starter. He beat Alabama and LSU. He had only 10 games one year b/c season-ending injury. No character issues or anything like that.
I did some spreadsheet work on the performance of 6 of the top QB draft prospects. Personally, I prefer to use their performance against ranked opponents as one of the more important metrics.
Here is what I came up with. The stats are all for the 2023 and 2022 seasons, exclusively. And they are ranked from the most successful to the least successful. I can open the source data up if anyone wants more detail.
Michael Penix, Jr JJ McCarthy Bo Nix Jayden Daniels Caleb Williams Drake Maye
Penix is great if his OL lets him sit in the pocket and throw darts to NFL caliber WRs. I think he will have problems adjusting to NFL pass rushers and secondaries. I wouldn’t draft him.
I don’t know so much about MCCarthy, but he strikes me as a second round prospect. Not sure.
I agree you on Penix. If you could guarantee a clean pocket, I think he will do well. But he doesn't seem very mobile and has a terrible injury history.
McCarthy's overall stats aren't the greatest. He had the lowest in both passing yards per season and points scored (combined passing TDs and personal rushing TDs) of all the QBs. But he did play in a top program.
I agree you on Penix. If you could guarantee a clean pocket, I think he will do well. But he doesn't seem very mobile and has a terrible injury history.
McCarthy's overall stats aren't the greatest. He had the lowest in both passing yards per season and points scored (combined passing TDs and personal rushing TDs) of all the QBs. But he did play in a top program.
True, but playing in a top program can also disguise some of your weaknesses. Fields is an example.
Interesting. Does it say how they come up with that?
From their web page, they say they combine time-to-throw, ball velocity, and accuracy when throwing under pressure. Nix 91% is the highest in this draft class. CJ Stroud was 87% last year.
Nix has improved, but wasn’t bad at Auburn. He was 9-4 as freshman starter. He beat Alabama and LSU. He had only 10 games one year b/c season-ending injury. No character issues or anything like that.
He also never threw for more than 2500 yards at Auburn. His production at Oregon SMOKES everything he did at Auburn...yardage, TD's, all went way up...INT's stayed the same. Perhaps its as simple as being around competent coaching and having some weapons being the cause of the improvement...which to some around here sounds like an impossibility...but can happen!! LOL
As for that stat...I wonder how they're getting the velocity of the ball. I'm not aware of that being measured in the games...but maybe it is and we just don't know it.
I did some spreadsheet work on the performance of 6 of the top QB draft prospects. Personally, I prefer to use their performance against ranked opponents as one of the more important metrics.
Here is what I came up with. The stats are all for the 2023 and 2022 seasons, exclusively. And they are ranked from the most successful to the least successful. I can open the source data up if anyone wants more detail.
Michael Penix, Jr JJ McCarthy Bo Nix Jayden Daniels Caleb Williams Drake Maye
I still think Penix is a 'best buy' option. Although Nix is not far off.
I like Fields staying but admit that Caleb Williams could be an incredible QB for us if the Bears finish the rebuild this year to provide him a better OL and another stud WR. And if the new coaches can truly build the offense around him (everything the Bears didn't do for Fields). It would be a better situation than past Bears QBs have stepped into here.
yeah. I don't know, so am not going to one pick over the other. All I am going to continue to say is that the best solution both long and short term were if JF could be made to play better. I think it would take a new OC, better O-line and more offensive weapons to have any hope of that happening. I think he has the tools and the mental toughness. Whether he has the ability to excel in a fast paced offense where he can put the ball where it needs to be prior to the WR getting there, I don't know. I just don't know. I saw Goff today do well when he had time and I saw him do poorly when he did not. Not much different in that respect than JF.
I get that there are valid arguments on both sides of this Fields debate.
Of course, every QB ever born is gonna produce better results with more time than with less. That's where the similarity ends between Goff vs Fields. Last 2 seasons Goff has thrown for 10,000 yards and 59 TDs. Fields would have to DOUBLE to match that.
Let's be serious here. They aren't in the same ballpark right now.
But that was Justin Fields' situation when he arrived at Chicago. I'll be honest. I could see Williams turn out to be Patrick Mahomes level, but just as easily I could see him being a "poor man's Justin Fields" here too. If we draft him I hope it is the former and not the latter case.
I'm a Fields guy, but I think the infrastructure here is LIGHT YEARS better than what Fields came into if we were to draft Caleb. He's got a legit #1 receiver, he's got a legit tight end, and he's got a decent to good o-line that could be very good if they address the center position. He will also be getting an experienced play caller with a track record of results. Fields had none of that.
There's something we can agree upon.
No one disputes that Justin didn't get drafted into a good situation (I won't rehash again why Pace/Nagy shouldn't have been allowed to make the pick in the first place). What's been disappointing has been the amount of his improvement since. As you just said, he had a "decent to good o-line", a legit #1 WR, and a legit TE this past season.
I wonder if folks realize that fully half of JF's TD passes the whole season happened in just two games against bad defenses--Denver and Washington. In the other 11 games, he had only 8 passing TDs total.
Sorry, guys, but that's a pretty brutal stat.
Here's another thing: Those that want to "build around Justin", cite the 'haul' of picks we'd be getting from trading #1. Well, you can't trade down past #3 if you want to draft Harrison. Let's say you get a 2nd and next years 1st for that -- an overpay but let's just say for argument's sake. The 1st wouldn't help us this year and the 2nd is the same you'd likely get by just trading him. Even if you want to trade further down for a true 'haul' this year, you're just assuming all those extra picks are gonna hit. Well, they didn't hit for the Raiders when they traded Mack to us so what makes you so sure you're gonna automatically "build a great team" around Fields?