It is very possible to have a good idea what you're going to get with the right amount of research. Are you going to be a 100%? No, that's not possible but you can definitely narrow things down.
I don't know if this is some kind of emotional defense mechanism that many Bears' fans have. Where past failures mean future success is impossible.
I agree that teams need to do their due diligence to find out as much as they can about these QB1s. They still whiff at times anyway. It is not saying success is impossible (where did you get that?) but rather success is not a dead-bang certainty just because you draft a guy high. There is a level of risk there. That was my only point.
That's a bizarre take to me. Coaches don't matter nearly as much as the players you have. A coach might push things 10% one way or the other. But it's the players that are going to be the one's executing things. Give me Mahomes and a lousy OC over Fields and a great OC every day of the week. The players are the main difference makers.
If Williams (or whoever) is everything many think he is and Waldron can't fit him into his system then he's incompetent and shouldn't even be an OC in this league. Sure it would be great if things sync up nicely. But you don't choose your QB based on your OC. OC's are a dime a dozen. Franchise QBs not so much.
No scheme can survive lack of talent; but not all talent is capable of living outside of scheme's their talent works in. Example outside QB, DB's can normally play man OR zone, very few can do both; let alone at a high level. So yes talent matters more than scheme, but most of the time that talent will only matter if it's in the correct scheme. Brady isn't the greatest of all time running the Colts/Manning offense, Mahomes needed Reid to reach his ceiling; further proof, KC didn't change what they did from Smith to Mahomes; Mahomes just could do it a bit better. KC was only targeting Mahomes bc he fit what they wanted to do, is Ried incompetent b/c he couldn't use Watson or Mitch? Or course not, fit matters.
Hope that makes since.
I get what you're saying. I guess my point is trying to fit your players to an OC scheme seems the backwards way of doing things. You want to get the best talent possible and then find a way to use them. Listening too much to your OC results in shit like the Bears trading away Greg Olson because Martz was too dumb to figure out how to use a TE like Greg. If the OC is worth anything he should be able to adapt things to the players he has.
I want the best QB in the draft (whoever it is). I don't want to draft someone who is best for some scheme for a particular coach who may or may not even be around in a year or two.
Manziel is just a name I threw out there. Actually size wise he is similar to Caleb. Both were Heisman winners. And the ad-hoc play by both is a bit similar. And the questions about Caleb also include his mental make up. But my point is simply that you don't KNOW what you are getting until you get them. It is a totally different game at the NFL level. That's obviously why so many QBs who are great in college, don't make it in the NFL, or disappoint at the NFL level. You really don't know what the floor is until the guy actually performs at the NFL level.
The only similarity between Williams and Manziel is they both play QB. There is almost nothing alike about their game if you watch the tape. Also unless Williams is also a secret coke head, mentally he's nothing like Manziel. People need to stop grabbing one or two impressions off of social media and then spouting off "concerns" and other grand narratives they have about somebody. It's the whole Cutler = Jeff George nonsense all over again. Do some actual research first and then you can at least make an informed opinion.
It is very possible to have a good idea what you're going to get with the right amount of research. Are you going to be a 100%? No, that's not possible but you can definitely narrow things down.
I don't know if this is some kind of emotional defense mechanism that many Bears' fans have. Where past failures mean future success is impossible. Like we have this idea we can never get the QB situation right so it must be all just a crap shoot. But it is possible to get a good idea of what you are getting. Is it ever a guarantee? No, but there is big difference between a 20% chance and 80% chance. From what I have seen so far on tape Williams is very much in that 80% range. We can't be scared to pull the trigger just because of past failures. How else are you ever going to get success otherwise?
Problem with Bear fans is they get to personally attach with their QB. I still remember many here saying we should of kept Jay Cutler longer. The same people who are saying to keep Fields. When you look at your QB, do you really see a Allen or Love? If your QB isn't in the top 10. They are easily replaceable. Fields isn't a top 10 QB and from the way he plays. Will never reach his ceiling.
Its just like Jay Cutler. Super talented guy but he could never get us a ring. We even built a nice offensive team and had the #2 offense in 2013 to end up 8-8. Jay Cutler played for one other team before leaving NFL. Trubisky is a backup in the NFL. Fields ceiling is a low level starting QB to a great backup.
You don't get the #1 pick often in the NFL. When Bears were in mediocrity 8-8 or should I say always picking in the mid teens. It becomes harder and harder to find a starting QB. There is a reason this is the only franchise in NFL history to not have a 4k QB throwing. If Williams is #15 QB in the NFL. That's still a HUGE upgrade over Fields. With the NFL being a passer league now. QB is the most important thing on your team. It will make or break your team unlike years past.
Problem with Bear fans is they get to personally attach with their QB.
There is a lot of truth to that. And I am certainly guilty of it too.
I think there is some truth to that, but there is also truth in looking at more than the QB and seeing that it would be hard for him to do much better than he has. I don't think that he has been given as many long plays as what I would have liked. But the line was not able to hold for long either. Which makes for holding the ball trying to find a target, lots of sacks and low production. Some of those, he should have thrown away and not gotten sacked. Would not have added to the production but would have helped on the wear and tear. I still have not seen as dynamic a QB in Chicago for a long time. He can make the long throws. He does have some issues with intermediate throws and holding the ball too long. And he needs to see the field better. But it helps to do that when you are not being run down.
I am not saying that I want him. I am saying that what I see tells me that he can be better than he is. I don't know how much better. And I also know that if he can get to a better level, the resources we have in this draft can be used to REALLY make some headway THIS YEAR. That is why I keep hoping that the real solution lies in keeping him and getting him to where he needs to be.
And I also realize that may be a pipe dream. I'm not saying this stuff because I am personally attached to the guy. I already have a wife. I am saying it because it would be the best course of action if it worked out that way. I also know the HUGE risk of being wrong and then missing out on a pick of the litter on this QB class. It would set us back years. Management knows more about what they have in Fields than anyone here. They have to know best what the odds are of getting Fields to a level of production that we need, vs the risk of getting a new QB, having him be the right guy, us being able to develop him, and getting fewer picks in the draft. But no good QB, no good team, so they have to pick the right path.
Included in this is what I believe is the tendency for Poles to play Madden. The thing is that he seems to be pretty good at it. Can he pass up the opportunity to get a bunch more picks? If he is going to get a QB, I will be pissed if he trades down and picks a QB. If he wants to go in that direction, don't play games with the pick. Take the guy that you feel is your franchise QB and start building around him. We won't have as much trade equity to build out the rest of the team (my fear he will play Madden with the ninth pick and then not get the kind of impact plays we need make major impacts). That is why I want the first option to work so much. It solves all our problems. I just don't know if its realistic in terms of making Fields better. From the glimpses I see, I think it is. But I am usually wrong, so there is that.
The only similarity between Williams and Manziel is they both play QB. There is almost nothing alike about their game if you watch the tape. Also unless Williams is also a secret coke head, mentally he's nothing like Manziel. People need to stop grabbing one or two impressions off of social media and then spouting off "concerns" and other grand narratives they have about somebody. It's the whole Cutler = Jeff George nonsense all over again. Do some actual research first and then you can at least make an informed opinion.
It is very possible to have a good idea what you're going to get with the right amount of research. Are you going to be a 100%? No, that's not possible but you can definitely narrow things down.
I don't know if this is some kind of emotional defense mechanism that many Bears' fans have. Where past failures mean future success is impossible. Like we have this idea we can never get the QB situation right so it must be all just a crap shoot. But it is possible to get a good idea of what you are getting. Is it ever a guarantee? No, but there is big difference between a 20% chance and 80% chance. From what I have seen so far on tape Williams is very much in that 80% range. We can't be scared to pull the trigger just because of past failures. How else are you ever going to get success otherwise?
The only thing that worries me about Williams is if he'll win over the locker room and how he'll handle the scrutiny/pressure of the situation in Chicago. None of the on the field stuff worries me with him. Not to say he doesn't have flaws in his game, but he can make every throw, he is elusive and athletic, he's got a quick release, etc.
The quick release and anticipatory throws are what attracts me. Those two are elements that Fields really doesn't excel at.
You're right that Justin definitely has the "leadership" thing down and he's endeared himself to many. CW does have his work cut out for him there.
The only thing that worries me about Williams is if he'll win over the locker room and how he'll handle the scrutiny/pressure of the situation in Chicago. None of the on the field stuff worries me with him. Not to say he doesn't have flaws in his game, but he can make every throw, he is elusive and athletic, he's got a quick release, etc.
The quick release and anticipatory throws are what attracts me. Those two are elements that Fields really doesn't excel at.
You're right that Justin definitely has the "leadership" thing down and he's endeared himself to many. CW does have his work cut out for him there.
I thought Williams was almost the same as Fields in release time. That's what I thought I remembered reading..... Am I going crazy? ok... maybe too late for that, but am I wrong?
The only thing that worries me about Williams is if he'll win over the locker room and how he'll handle the scrutiny/pressure of the situation in Chicago. None of the on the field stuff worries me with him. Not to say he doesn't have flaws in his game, but he can make every throw, he is elusive and athletic, he's got a quick release, etc.
The quick release and anticipatory throws are what attracts me. Those two are elements that Fields really doesn't excel at.
You're right that Justin definitely has the "leadership" thing down and he's endeared himself to many. CW does have his work cut out for him there.
I'd just caution there's LOT'S of film of him passing up those throws and waiting for someone to get open deep, holding the ball to long, etc. Ya know...the things people complained a lot about with Fields.
The quick release and anticipatory throws are what attracts me. Those two are elements that Fields really doesn't excel at.
You're right that Justin definitely has the "leadership" thing down and he's endeared himself to many. CW does have his work cut out for him there.
I thought Williams was almost the same as Fields in release time. That's what I thought I remembered reading..... Am I going crazy? ok... maybe too late for that, but am I wrong?
You're thinking Time To Throw...which yes, is very similar to Fields. He holds onto the ball for a long time...I've said this repeatedly warning people cause people in here lost their minds when Fields did it.
However, his release of the ball...from wind up to throw, is MUCH quicker than Fields.
The only thing that worries me about Williams is if he'll win over the locker room and how he'll handle the scrutiny/pressure of the situation in Chicago. None of the on the field stuff worries me with him. Not to say he doesn't have flaws in his game, but he can make every throw, he is elusive and athletic, he's got a quick release, etc.
The quick release and anticipatory throws are what attracts me. Those two are elements that Fields really doesn't excel at.
You're right that Justin definitely has the "leadership" thing down and he's endeared himself to many. CW does have his work cut out for him there.
Fields average time to throw was 3.23 seconds this past season. Caleb's is 3.21 seconds this past season. They are the same guy when it comes to holding onto the ball too long.
LINK "Now, an honest critique of Williams’ game is that he holds onto the ball for too long. On throws five or more yards down the field (to eliminate schemed-up quick throws like screens) in 2023, Williams’ average time to throw is 3.21 seconds. That is the highest mark of any of the quarterbacks featured on PFF's 2024 big board. In fact, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy is the only other quarterback on that list with an average time to throw above 3.0 seconds (3.02)."