Tough to pass up the immediate impact Carter would make at a position of need. But if I did trade back there are still very good players at multiple areas of need I would be more than happy getting: Bryan Bressee(DT), Paris Johnson(OT), Myles Murphy(DE), Tyree Wilson(DL), Joey Porter Jr.(CB), Peter Skronski(OT/OG), Quentin Johnson(WR)...so given the needs we have and the options...its certainly worth considering.
I know there are good players you can get at #6. But accept the premise of the question;namely, you sincerely believe that Carter will be on par with Watt or Donald. If you believe that, do you nevertheless trade down to #6 for the package I described? That is the question.
Decisions don't exist in vacuums however. What do I think about the players I could get at 6? And is the value of players I could get comparable enough to make it worth passing up that one? I'd have to feel strongly about those players to pass up a guy like Carter. I can't give a more definitive answer because I haven't done the research on a lot of these guys yet.
I know there are good players you can get at #6. But accept the premise of the question;namely, you sincerely believe that Carter will be on par with Watt or Donald. If you believe that, do you nevertheless trade down to #6 for the package I described? That is the question.
Decisions don't exist in vacuums however. What do I think about the players I could get at 6? And is the value of players I could get comparable enough to make it worth passing up that one? I'd have to feel strongly about those players to pass up a guy like Carter. I can't give a more definitive answer because I haven't done the research on a lot of these guys yet.
What I am trying to ask is, if we assume that Carter is going to be as good as Watt or Donald — and without trying to formulate a specific trade with named players — what would it take in terms of the quality of players received in the trade to consider the trade a better outcome for the team? If we get three solid starters from the trade and one of them makes the Pro Bowl once or twice, while Carter (like Watt or Donald) is Defensive Player of the Year for the Panthers and goes on to have a career like Donald, did we get enough to justify the trade? If not, what more would it take? I think Poles would first need to have a generalized formula like this before he can assess whether the players offered are quality enough to make the trade worthwhile. Does this make sense?
Decisions don't exist in vacuums however. What do I think about the players I could get at 6? And is the value of players I could get comparable enough to make it worth passing up that one? I'd have to feel strongly about those players to pass up a guy like Carter. I can't give a more definitive answer because I haven't done the research on a lot of these guys yet.
What I am trying to ask is, if we assume that Carter is going to be as good as Watt or Donald — and without trying to formulate a specific trade with named players — what would it take in terms of the quality of players received in the trade to consider the trade a better outcome for the team? If we get three solid starters from the trade and one of them makes the Pro Bowl once or twice, while Carter (like Watt or Donald) is Defensive Player of the Year for the Panthers and goes on to have a career like Donald, did we get enough to justify the trade? If not, what more would it take? I think Poles would first need to have a generalized formula like this before he can assess whether the players offered are quality enough to make the trade worthwhile. Does this make sense?
I go back-and-forth over the trade down. We do need a lot of quality players. They key word there is "quality" and not quantity. When I consider the scope of this rebuild effort, it sure seems like a monumental task if the team is truly going to be successful with the rebuild. You've mentioned this as being unprecedented and I agree. In light of this, I can't help but wonder about the importance of having that player piece on defense who is going to be the centerpiece there. Justin Fields is the centerpiece on the offense, and should be the foundation piece for the next 10+ seasons. Who is that guy going to be on defense? Is that foundation piece on D worth spending a #2 (or whatever pick we end up with)? Or is it more important to trade down and hope we still can land that quality of a player? We all understand that no player is ever a "sure thing" in the draft. People use that term every year but "sure thing" guys bust often in the draft (we've seen our share on the Bears over the past 60 or so years). I keep coming back to the thought that we just have to trust that Poles is skilled enough to draft the quality we need and the quantity of GOOD players we need to fill out a strong competitive roster. The coaches can't overcome poor drafting. The GM has to keep the talent flowing into the roster every year. Us fans will have to wait and see what unfolds with player acquisition with Poles. If he DOES trade down then I hope he can still get that guy who can be the centerpiece guy on D.
And I've said the Captain Obvious thing many times here - we need a great team and not just a great unit (O, D or STs). You have to have the overall team talent at a baseline level to win championships. My point is that I don't want to see one unit (even offense) build at the expense of ignoring defense. The challenge for Poles is to get the guys Fields needs on O, while still building a solid D. Both. You can't simply ignore one unit and expect good things to happen. And I figure THIS is why Poles, as GM, gets paid the big bucks. The buck stops with him. He needs to get it done. How, well, I don't exactly know. But he is the pro and we are just meatball fans. It's on him to figure it out.
What I am trying to ask is, if we assume that Carter is going to be as good as Watt or Donald — and without trying to formulate a specific trade with named players — what would it take in terms of the quality of players received in the trade to consider the trade a better outcome for the team? If we get three solid starters from the trade and one of them makes the Pro Bowl once or twice, while Carter (like Watt or Donald) is Defensive Player of the Year for the Panthers and goes on to have a career like Donald, did we get enough to justify the trade? If not, what more would it take? I think Poles would first need to have a generalized formula like this before he can assess whether the players offered are quality enough to make the trade worthwhile. Does this make sense?
I go back-and-forth over the trade down. We do need a lot of quality players. They key word there is "quality" and not quantity. When I consider the scope of this rebuild effort, it sure seems like a monumental task if the team is truly going to be successful with the rebuild. You've mentioned this as being unprecedented and I agree. In light of this, I can't help but wonder about the importance of having that player piece on defense who is going to be the centerpiece there. Justin Fields is the centerpiece on the offense, and should be the foundation piece for the next 10+ seasons. Who is that guy going to be on defense? Is that foundation piece on D worth spending a #2 (or whatever pick we end up with)? Or is it more important to trade down and hope we still can land that quality of a player? We all understand that no player is ever a "sure thing" in the draft. People use that term every year but "sure thing" guys bust often in the draft (we've seen our share on the Bears over the past 60 or so years). I keep coming back to the thought that we just have to trust that Poles is skilled enough to draft the quality we need and the quantity of GOOD players we need to fill out a strong competitive roster. The coaches can't overcome poor drafting. The GM has to keep the talent flowing into the roster every year. Us fans will have to wait and see what unfolds with player acquisition with Poles. If he DOES trade down then I hope he can still get that guy who can be the centerpiece guy on D.
And I've said the Captain Obvious thing many times here - we need a great team and not just a great unit (O, D or STs). You have to have the overall team talent at a baseline level to win championships. My point is that I don't want to see one unit (even offense) build at the expense of ignoring defense. The challenge for Poles is to get the guys Fields needs on O, while still building a solid D. Both. You can't simply ignore one unit and expect good things to happen. And I figure THIS is why Poles, as GM, gets paid the big bucks. The buck stops with him. He needs to get it done. How, well, I don't exactly know. But he is the pro and we are just meatball fans. It's on him to figure it out.
You just did a good job of describing the decision Poles will face when the Panthers call him and offer the #6 plus another first and second. That becomes a very tough decision if he thinks Carter is going to have a career like JJ Watt or Luke Donald. I have not been thinking about it in terms of specific named players. My question is more like “What would I need to get out of the trade to justify trading away this guy?” If you can’t answer that general question, how can you assess what’s “quality enough” in the draft package the Panthers are offering? I suppose you could just use the famous number chart, but that’s not using your own brain to make the decision.
We don’t even know what the Panthers draft position will be in 2024, which makes it even harder to put a value on it. So, my current thinking is that I want a stud player off their roster (Brian Burns) plus #6 and a second to move up to draft QB. Now I know more concretely exactly what I’m getting. If they won’t accept that deal, then just draft Carter or Alexander and be done with it. Anyway, I would like to know what butkus thinks about this.
A good GM and his scouts are going to have many "lists," chief among these is a list ranking all players, regardless of position and another list ranking their needs in order of importance. Marrying those up is crucial to surviving any draft. As players come off the board, some positions pack up, i.e., no one is selecting safeties at the top of the draft even though there are one or two who are blue-chippers. The GM scrutinizes assessments his people have made of the teams in front of him and that gives him the picture he needs.
So the questions becomes "can I drop and still pick up an elite player who meets my needs" and "how far can I drop" ...
Until the draft kicks off, there's no way to say what he's going to do. But I know (and I love) playing "what if" so...
The Bears are now #3 Overall with the Broncos losing. QBs go 1-2, leaving ALL OTHER POSITIONS open to the Bears' pick.
Last Edit: Dec 12, 2022 19:22:51 GMT -6 by matsellah: I actually pasted in part of a post I was leaving on another website. I took it out because it made the information in this post wrong.
A good GM and his scouts are going to have many "lists," chief among these is a list ranking all players, regardless of position and another list ranking their needs in order of importance. Marrying those up is crucial to surviving any draft. As players come off the board, some positions pack up, i.e., no one is selecting safeties at the top of the draft even though there are one or two who are blue-chippers. The GM scrutinizes assessments his people have made of the teams in front of him and that gives him the picture he needs.
So the questions becomes "can I drop and still pick up an elite player who meets my needs" and "how far can I drop" ...
Until the draft kicks off, there's no way to say what he's going to do. But I know (and I love) playing "what if" so...
The Bears are now #3 Overall with the Broncos moving up. Do they need a QB? I believe they're going to fire their HC during the off-season so this very fluid. Personally, I think they would be incompetent to pass on a QB, which means QBs go 1-2, leaving ALL OTHER POSITIONS open to the Bears' pick.
It's like having the #1 pick.
That is all true, but if you trade down from #3 to #7, you should assume that you just lost your chance to get Carter, which leaves you looking at what you might get at #7. Even on draft night it is unpredictable what player on your list will still be there in second round, much less their first round pick in 2024. I’m just trying to figure out what calculus Pole will use to accept/decline a trade offer, assuming he sees Carter as the next JJ Watt or Luke Donald.
Post by bearsfaninaz on Dec 11, 2022 19:11:09 GMT -6
Looks like we're at 3rd now since Denver lost. With their remaining schedule Cardinals Rams Chiefs Chargers. Not sure if they will win one from that schedule. Rams probably the best chance barring any major injury(s) to other teams.
Looks like we're at 3rd now since Denver lost. With their remaining schedule Cardinals Rams Chiefs Chargers. Not sure if they will win one from that schedule. Rams probably the best chance barring any major injury(s) to other teams.
If the Seahawks get #2, you can kiss Carter good-bye. Their run defense today was beyond pathetic.
Post by brasilbear on Dec 11, 2022 20:34:05 GMT -6
Currently (and this could change several times by the time the draft comes around)...if I can get Carter I'm staying put, otherwise I'm trading down for as many day 1 and day 2 picks I cam get. Problem is, teams drafting right behind the Bears know the Bears aren't picking a QB, so a trade up is doing to come from someone further down the list. While that type of drop down will gather more picks in return (according to the pick value charts), it will take the Bears out of the "sure thing" territory.
All this is IMO, and my wife claims I'm only right about stuff less than 1/2 of the time so....
Currently (and this could change several times by the time the draft comes around)...if I can get Carter I'm staying put, otherwise I'm trading down for as many day 1 and day 2 picks I cam get. Problem is, teams drafting right behind the Bears know the Bears aren't picking a QB, so a trade up is doing to come from someone further down the list. While that type of drop down will gather more picks in return (according to the pick value charts), it will take the Bears out of the "sure thing" territory.
All this is IMO, and my wife claims I'm only right about stuff less than 1/2 of the time so....
Who would you rather have — a QB taken second in the draft or one taken last in the draft? I watched Purdy yesterday. I’ll take him over Wilson. You can draft a winner or a bust in any round of the draft. I don’t know what the chart says, but if Seattle gets Carter at #2 and some sucker GM wants to trade whatever the chart says to move up from #15 to #3, I would trade down. Otherwise, I’m taking Alexander at #3. Right now, I think we get Carter if the Bears lose out and Denver can beat the Rams, which knocks the Seahawks down to #3. That’s definitely possible.
