Brad Biggs mailbag. Dynamite read this week!

I'll tackle a couple of these.

1) Eric Berry - I think Biggsy's fingers were flying ahead of his thinker for a minute here. 

"In a perfect world, the Bears get the next Berry. They find an impact safety in the draft and get a player that will be ascending. However, the team has needs across the roster and if they don’t get that impactful safety early in the draft, perhaps pursuing Berry is the way to go."

I do agree with the idea of finding that younger Eric Berry but Berry's fate for 2017 and beyond will likely be sealed long before the draft so either Pace moves on him as soon as FA begins or he passes.  There's no waiting 'til after the draft with a top tier player like Berry.  He'll be signed very quickly.

While I respect Biggsy as one of the better and more realistic guys on the Bears beat the tendency of all of them to overstate age and undervalue experience at certain position seems to me more a bad habit that intelligent thinking.  Many NFL Safeties have played at the top of their game well into the 30s getting by on savvy and leadership.  As it relates to Berry saying that at age 28 his best years are behind him is no more than a personal opinion and what I would deem unfair.

Like QB this is another position where if you can't draft well then you need to pony up for vet talent who can do the job.  I'm not necessarily advocating we pay Berry's price only stating the obvious.  We haven't drafted well at FS so now we have a dilemma there and that position is essentially the QB of the secondary.  It requires both being a ballhawk and strong leadership and we are not getting either from Amos so an upgrade is needed.

2) AJ - I'm probably only half surprise by this.  While the ongoing injuries to KW and his lack of growth have taken away all of the Bears leverage with AJ I tend to agree that Pace simply won't over pay for him.  AJ won't get an offer with top 5 type guarantees this time either.  If he won't accept less coupled with performance incentives which are fair then I don't think they'll come to terms.

Where I might diverge from Biggsy though is on the tag.  Because of his suspension they actually paid him $3.4 mil less this year which can be rolled into the 2017 cap.  If you subtract that from his $17.5 mil cost they're actually getting him for around the same $14 mil in 2017 he was suppose to make in 2016.  So I might tag him anyway simply because I have no one else to use it on and see if a trade can be worked out for less than two 1sts.  I'm opposed to letting valuable draft capital go for free especially when we'd need to replace him.

3) How do they improve from here? - I'll start out by saying that if 8-8 is the best this team can muster in 2017, and in this case I do tend to agree with Biggsy, then I believe the ONLY reason Fox is being retained is money.  They may be hoping to persuade us it'll be better but I see to many "if's" for that to have much of a chance.  So I'll just say it now.  We're gonna be discussing Fox's demise again next year around now as well.  Here's part of the reason why.

"I think they need more talent, more difference makers on both sides of the ball. It’s not a lack of passion and attitude."

Those players either have to be drafted and developed (and kept healthy) or they need to be bought.  Fox has already fallen far short of any established goals as far as the former goes.  Yes we have some key players out but those we are playing aren't executing well and the sheer number of key penalties that have cost us games also smacks of poor discipline and accountability.  Young players fall back on college habits that won't be acceptable in the NFL.  That's coaching.

Biggsy is also clear to point out what I have. The McCaskey checkbook will not bail him out like the Bowlen checkbook did in Denver.  Pace is not his "Fairy God Elway" providing him with All Pro defenders and WRs and a HOF QB.  So where will these talented difference makers come from fast enough to make a difference and again can we keep them healthy even if we did buy them?  This will be a much slower process than has been sold to fans and I'm sorry to say it but John Fox is still one of the reasons for that.


So I'll just leave it at that.  Even with an 8-8 finish his 3 year record if we lose Sunday will be 17-31/.354 if we're lucky.  That would tie him with Jim Dooley as the second worst HC in Bears history.  Would that be good enough to give him one more year?  Yeah right.

So assuming I'm correct and the 1/4/2017 presser is to announce status quo once again we're being hosed by the McCaskeys and Teddy Bears who will ask us to suffer along with them again while they continue to mismanage their team but the season ticket packages will include a bonus this year.  A tube of vaseline so the stick they're shoving up our asses won't be quite as painful.  BOHICA LOL

I think record is overstated. If the Bears go 8-8 and look good and 'seem' to be improving the pressure will be tolerable. If they scrape by 8-8 and look fugly doing so, see ya later.

Compare, for instance, the Vikings (7-8) and the Colts (7-8) with the Ravens and Washington.

OK, but let's look at this.  Fox will be 62 in another 6 weeks.  If he goes 8-8 he'll still be the second losing-est HC in Bears history and the second oldest.  But the oldest was also the winning-est coach in Bears history and he owned the joint so he could pretty much do as he pleased.

If I understand you then if we go 8-8, still miss the playoffs, but look good doing it you'd bring Fox back for year four?  Is that right?  So now we'd have a 63 year old HC trying somehow to get this team back on a winning streak and just for shits and grins he's on his way to a 10-6 record in 2018.  Then what do you do?

He's gonna be 64 years old in 2019 and still won't have won even 50% of his games as your HC.  Are you gonna give him a 4 year extension and hope he ties Marv Levy as the oldest HC to coach in a Super Bowl?  Other than the McCaskeys not wanting to pay him off if they fire him I don't see where this all leads to.

When Fox arrived even with my hesitations I was thinking positive and that within two years if he had them back in the playoffs they might give him a two year extension to get a real shot of 4 years to win a SB figuring it might take two shots to do it.  Guess I was a bit optimistic huh? 

The way it looks it may take two more years just to manage a winning record good enough for him to have one more one and done in the playoffs so again I don't see where it benefits us to keep him even this coming year but it's pretty clear that's they way it's gonna be.

I'm just being honest and straightforward when I say this isn't much different than Cutler.  If he's not your guy for the long term and can't take you to a SB then once the cost of moving on is livable just find your guy then and do it.  I'm tired of this glacier speed approach to success the McCaskeys are trying to sell us.

Bottom line: Regardless of whether or not Fox is your guy, who are you going to replace him with?

If Pace (or the McCaskeys) has his guy that he wants to go all in on, by all means, do it. Maybe that's Fangio. Maybe it's some upstart OC or DC. Maybe it's a college coach or an assistant coach rising, but replacing Fox for someone you're not 100% comfortable tying your career as a GM to makes no sense in my opinion. 

If Fox fails and Pace's draft picks and FA acquisitions continue to 'pan out,' he'll get one more (arguably one - if you think the McCaskeys forced Fox on him) shot at picking an HC. If I were Pace, I think the best move is to keep Fox and use him as the 'rebuild' coach. Once he feels comfortable with the talent on the team, the duties of GM, and the resumes of prospective HCs, make your move. Pace hasn't burned a ton of political capital, yet. I wouldn't burn it now while the team is still acquiring talent. 

The cynical perspective I take on Fox is he's a transitional piece. If the transition isn't complete why move on from him? Pace needs to establish a foundation on this team on top of which a new coach can be successful. That's not present. Moving on to a new coach right now, I think, would likely produce the same results. Keep Fox until your transition is complete (or as complete as it can be) and then move forward.