This is a really interesting article on JF vs a new QB. Definitely worth the read.
A short excerpt. Mostly just saying that they need to be absolutely sure before they make a decision, but much more and deeper.
The Bears have gone for years without ever having a passer who actually showed he was developing and improving his game. Numbers show Fields has done it, though not to the huge extent needed to win with the team he had. He did it despite a rather shaky offensive system and coordinator, the second failed offensive system and coordinator he had to endure.
Of course he improved. He got a top 10 WR. Problem is. He didn't take the step he needed to.
This shouldn't even be a debate. You have the #1 overall pick with one of the best QB classes we've seen. Williams and Maye would go #1 overall in any other recent draft class. Your starting QB still has so many question marks heading into year 4. You have to reset the clock.
It has been a long time since Ive been on. Came on to see what the takes were on here. Of course there is 78 pages on this topic! (And maybe other similar subject threads). A lot of fans seem to want to draft a new QB and I wondered if they were mostly younger, not having seen decades of 'cant miss' prospects become busts or just be mediocre? It is a tough call any way you look at it. Fields doesnt have the stats to backup passing on a top QB. However, he is only 24 yrs old. If you've watched every snap like I have, you would realize he's improved despite all of the definciencies he's had on offense. He has had some big-time Wow plays. IMHO he still has a very high ceiling and his character & work ethic are a known quantity. He has the physical traits height, arm, mobility. For me, I would have a real tough time if JF1 went on to another team & became a top QB1 in the league and the Bears got a lesser QB. I like the idea of trading down, if there are teams that want to trade a bevy of picks for their QB, and building a team around JF1. I think Shane Waldron will prove to be a tremendous asset along with a top WR (draft/FA or both) and strength up the middle on the Oline (C) to give him a pocket, I believe JF1 can be the guy.
Can't compare NFL from the past. Best sample size is from 2000-to present and even then the rules changed so much from that.
7 QBs from 2000's own 18 rings. All Hall of Famers while 6 QB's own the other 6 rings.
QB is very important. Paying 50 million for Fields. Yes his rookie contract is coming up is not worth it for an at best Tier 2 QB.
It has been a long time since Ive been on. Came on to see what the takes were on here. Of course there is 78 pages on this topic! (And maybe other similar subject threads). A lot of fans seem to want to draft a new QB and I wondered if they were mostly younger, not having seen decades of 'cant miss' prospects become busts or just be mediocre? It is a tough call any way you look at it. Fields doesnt have the stats to backup passing on a top QB. However, he is only 24 yrs old. If you've watched every snap like I have, you would realize he's improved despite all of the definciencies he's had on offense. He has had some big-time Wow plays. IMHO he still has a very high ceiling and his character & work ethic are a known quantity. He has the physical traits height, arm, mobility. For me, I would have a real tough time if JF1 went on to another team & became a top QB1 in the league and the Bears got a lesser QB. I like the idea of trading down, if there are teams that want to trade a bevy of picks for their QB, and building a team around JF1. I think Shane Waldron will prove to be a tremendous asset along with a top WR (draft/FA or both) and strength up the middle on the Oline (C) to give him a pocket, I believe JF1 can be the guy.
Can't compare NFL from the past. Best sample size is from 2000-to present and even then the rules changed so much from that.
7 QBs from 2000's own 18 rings. All Hall of Famers while 6 QB's own the other 6 rings.
QB is very important. Paying 50 million for Fields. Yes his rookie contract is coming up is not worth it for an at best Tier 2 QB.
I think his option is $23-$25M. Again he is 24 years old. I think its too early to say he is at best a Tier 2 QB. Let's see what Waldron can do. Fields is in a MUCH better spot than Geno was when Seattle got him.
Can't compare NFL from the past. Best sample size is from 2000-to present and even then the rules changed so much from that.
7 QBs from 2000's own 18 rings. All Hall of Famers while 6 QB's own the other 6 rings.
QB is very important. Paying 50 million for Fields. Yes his rookie contract is coming up is not worth it for an at best Tier 2 QB.
I think his option is $23-$25M. Again he is 24 years old. I think its too early to say he is at best a Tier 2 QB. Let's see what Waldron can do. Fields is in a MUCH better spot than Geno was when Seattle got him.
Too early? He had 3 seasons in the NFL. Had a legit top 10 WR and a great receiving TE. Name me other QBs that didn't transfer teams have a breakout year in year 4? If we didn't hold the #1 overall pick this year. I would say build around him for two more seasons. The fact we have to top 10 picks. You go after QB and WR/TE.
Fields isn't even a Tier 2 QB. He is bottom in the league in any meaningful passing stats. He's a Tier 3 QB. Those are replaceable.
Murry 46 million average Watson 46 million average Wilson 49 million average
Dak is most likely getting his contract renewed and will be pushing 50 million soon. So expect Fields around the 44-48 million a year average. That's too much for a guy who never shown any real flash as a passer. One of the worst 4th QBs in the NFL as well.
Can't compare NFL from the past. Best sample size is from 2000-to present and even then the rules changed so much from that.
7 QBs from 2000's own 18 rings. All Hall of Famers while 6 QB's own the other 6 rings.
QB is very important. Paying 50 million for Fields. Yes his rookie contract is coming up is not worth it for an at best Tier 2 QB.
I think his option is $23-$25M. Again he is 24 years old. I think its too early to say he is at best a Tier 2 QB. Let's see what Waldron can do. Fields is in a MUCH better spot than Geno was when Seattle got him.
Those are really good points. I agree. I am trusting Poles and the coaches to make a great decision here. They need to accurately assess what these QB's can ultimately be. Not what they were. What they can be. If they decide to go with a draftee, hey, I'm good with that. If they decide to go with Fields, then I'll be good with that too.
Yeah, I'm reading "experts" opinions that are all over the board - most recently the "keep Fields" opinion is gathering steam... we have read everything from draft JJ McCarthy (reading more and more opinions on that one now) to going with Caleb, to draft Maye - and a number of "draft Jayden Daniels" stuff... and on and on and on it goes...
These guys know nothing more than us on this messageboard - and the opinions are just as diverse. And of course everyone garners their "stats" to "prove" their worthless opinions. (I will be so glad when this circus if finally over with).
Post by bearsinhouston on Feb 27, 2024 8:41:00 GMT -6
I have always been a JF advocate. Reading this article, it seems the team is leaning towards moving the pick. I knew no decision would (or could) be made until Poles knew what he could trade both the pick and JF for. In order to weigh a decision, you have to have both sides of the decision to weigh.
So, this article makes the argument that JF had enough talent on the Bears to succeed. I don't know. Maybe he is right and I am wrong. All I hope is that the Bears know and they make the right decision. I want a QB that is elite. I think JF can be. If not, I want a different QB. I don't want Poles passing up an elite QB for Madden trading fame. We need to get the QB right. I still have faith in JF, but the guy makes a good argument.
Yeah, I'm reading "experts" opinions that are all over the board - most recently the "keep Fields" opinion is gathering steam... we have read everything from draft JJ McCarthy (reading more and more opinions on that one now) to going with Caleb, to draft Maye - and a number of "draft Jayden Daniels" stuff... and on and on and on it goes...
These guys know nothing more than us on this messageboard - and the opinions are just as diverse. And of course everyone garners their "stats" to "prove" their worthless opinions. (I will be so glad when this circus if finally over with).
Yes, everyone has opinions but MOST opinions on this are decidedly in one direction. And it ain't for Fields.
I agree with Infante that I wouldn't take Jayden Daniels. I'd keep Fields over him if it came down to those two.
I do thing JJM will end up going 1st round (Pitt wouldn't surprise me). For me, JJM would have been a great option a year ago to sit behind Fields as a Plan B if Justin didn't work out, especially if you could have gotten him in round 2. This year though, he's not in same class as a prospect as Williams or maybe even Maye. Remember we are talking about PROSPECTS here; none of these guys has proven squat yet in the NFL.
Bo Nix and Penix to me are guys you only draft in the 2nd if you have already decided to keep Fields one more year and get the proverbial "haul" from trading the #1 pick. I think that's highly unlikely but I agree with the CHGO guys (yesterdays pod) when they said there's no way they keep Fields without Ryan Poles giving himself an "off-ramp" or "Plan B". Hoge pointed out that the Bears may love JF as a person and as a leader but they clearly don't love him as their future franchise QB or Poles would have already said the #1 pick is up for sale. The only way JF sticks around is if there's a viable Plan B QB to turn to if Fields still isn't looking great as a passer in year 4.
To me, Williams is the OBVIOUS CHOICE and I'm very sure that's where this is going eventually (with JF traded).
The only small caveat I have requires two things to happen: A) Poles has to rate Maye as equal or very, very close to equal with Williams and B) Washington has to be willing to part with next years 1st + BOTH their 2024 2nds to move up one spot.
That's the only plausible scenario I see for Poles trading out of the #1 spot.
PS: Oh and BTW, that theoretical trade with Washington would be a massive overpay by them. Like ridiculously over chart value. They would have to LOVE LOVE LOVE LOVE LOVE Williams >>>>>> Maye to make that move. And they have a brand new GM, right? Is he really gonna push in all his chips like that in his very first few months on the job? I'm skeptical.
To me, Williams is the OBVIOUS CHOICE and I'm very sure that's where this is going eventually (with JF traded).
My gut feeling is that you are right. And it very well could end up to be the best way to go.
EDIT: I like the keep-Fields option, but my batting average has admittedly been pitiful over the years (I even was on the draft Brady Quinn bandwagon back in the day). So maybe THAT is the best draft-Caleb endorsement of all :-)