I don't think stats and feelings can go hand in hand.
Fields is a subpar QB who throws an average of 166.9 yards per game (Career wise) while having 1 TD per game (Career wise).
For 2023. Half of Fields TDs came from the Broncos and Commanders. Which were 4 each. So in the other 11 games, he only scored 8 TDs. His QB rating went from a 85 to 86 adding DJ Moore to this team.
He is one of the worst 4th Quarter QB in the league. 55.3 passer rating which is ranked 48th amount active QBs.
In 40 games he's played as a starter. Only 14 games he passed over 200 yards including one game he passed over 300 yards. 6 games he passed for less than 100.
I'm not trying to use feelings as a way to argue about Fields. Its all about facts which come from stats.
Those that want to keep Fields only use what if's and feelings. Those that want to get rid of Fields are throwing numbers around. I was a huge Field supporter when we drafted him and was 100% ok with Poles not going after a QB last year and to give Fields that one chance. Most here were ok with it and knew we had another 1st to make up for it if he did fail again. Which he did. Now we have the chance to draft his replacement with the first overall and people still trying to pretend he's a Tier 2 QB who can become a Tier 1 with a super team around him?
When you look at the stats above. Are you really willing to ride another season with this type of QB play while Stroud and Love are taking off?
Of course not. We need to get him to play better. I think we agree on that.
He has shown he can't be a Tier 2 QB. He's not going to play better.
I think what David is saying is that Poles wasn't "blown away" (his words) by Stroud when in retrospect he should have been.
No one seriously blames him for doing what he did instead. He needed to get a WR and give Fields a 3rd year to sink or swim. As far as Carter goes, my position on that hasn't changed from 12 years ago. Carter was too big a character risk for an early rebuild and we desperately needed help at OT.
So while Poles was justified at the time in doing what he did, he also did pass on Stroud when he had the #1 pick in hand. That's reason #23 for me why there's no freaking way he's gonna pass again at #1 on Caleb this year. He's NEVER gonna get this chance again and the Bears organization is never gonna have back-to-back #1 picks again for decades, if ever.
And Shane Waldron didn't agree to come here when he had other options to put his ass on the line for a one-year suicide mission trying to salvage Fields. He came here for the opportunity to drop Caleb Williams into an O that will have Moore, Kmet, and a new 1st/2nd round WR to work with for the next few seasons.
But again, context is needed. Stroud wasn't seen as the best QB prospect in the draft, nor at a level of Williams or Maye. Houston, though some want to argue with this, was also in a better place than we would have been had we not made the trade. They already had a very good o-line anchored by a stud left tackle in Laremy Tunsil. They already had a #1 receiver ready to break out in his 3rd year based off a lot of very good things he did the year before, and depth at the position after that. They signed a legit tight end in free agency and they hired a great coaching staff. We draft Stroud here at #1 instead of making the trade and he's throwing to Mooney and Claypool as his best receivers and playing behind a line that has Lucas Patrick at center who knows at right tackle. Night and day different situation. You deal with the information you have at the time and the situation you're in.
We're in a MUCH different situation this time around, as we've discussed...which is why I don't think they trade the pick. Poles worked this masterfully, and yes, some luck was involved too...but what is it they say? Luck is the product of design or something or other. He gave Fields a legit weapon all while improving the infrastructure for a rookie QB to come into should they need to go that route.
I agree with you. The analysts didn't see it.
However, that is Poles job, isn't it? His job is to cut thru the BS and make unbiased decisions even if they are unpopular in the short-term. As I have said before, I'm not a big proponent of the "Bears ruin QBs" manta the fanbase loves to use as a crutch. I have never seen a Bears QB go somewhere else and blossom into a star and I doubt I will see it this time either with Justin. IMHO, the Bears main problem with QBs has been that they suck at scouting them (and later developing them). They seem to excel at scouting defense but at QB they suck and have for many years.
Poles said he needed to be "blown away" and he clearly wasn't when he should have been. That's on scouting once again. Stroud is only gonna get better with experience and Houston adding talent around him. He should have been the pick.
Having said that, I understand why Poles didn't go that route for the reasons I mentioned before. No one serious blames him under those circumstances.
But he WILL BE BLAMED if he repeats that this year and he fully knows that. He's not gonna get another pass. That's my point. Barring an arrest or some major red flag getting uncovered in the interview process, Williams is gonna be the QB next year and Fields will be traded.
He has shown he can't be a Tier 2 QB. He's not going to play better.
Yeah. I disagree, But that's ok as far as I'm concerned
He's currently a borderline starter. Bottom third of the league among starting QBs. First 3 weeks of this season he was the worst starter in the entire NFL, behind even Howell and Dobbs.
I can buy him becoming a mid-level starter with more time and talent around him. That's his ceiling IMO. Many fans are ok with that; I am not. I want a clear top-10 QB, ideally pushing top-5.
Those that say he will become elite or near-elite next year are projecting an enormous jump in production and basing it on hope alone. We have seen nothing to indicate that is a plausible scenario. He has had maybe 2-3 really good games in his whole career and they were against bottom-tier defenses and/or crap QBs.
I like Fields, I always did and still do. His abilities are huge, but theres a mental barrier, slow processor. He is i3, sad to say And, I dont trust in his ability to W games in 4th, no reason to. I find myself wanting Jay back, and that guy let me down a hundred times. Still, I would trust him more than JF in 4th, unfortunately. And that is hardly subjective, its rather objective.
His position as of now is about 20th QB in this league
That's exactly where I am at on this. So far Poles has done well. Not perfect, but he has done a great job overall.
I don't dispute that thus far Poles has drafted well. Even when David complains.
His only real mistake in the draft was Velus and his only real mistake outside of it was Claypool. Admittedly, the CC trade was a bad miss but I get that it happens and they were desperate at the time.
Still, assuming that the "extra picks" they would get from keeping Fields are going to make a huge difference seems like a stretch to me. Remember we are likely to get a 2nd for trading Fields and still have the #9 pick too.
Even the most ardent Fields-fans admit that he has serious flaws as a passer and that he would need a really good team around him to be successful. That's threading a tight needle to me.
Not always, but more often than not, he who has the better QB wins the game. Especially in clutch time in the 4th Q and that's when Justin has been at his worst so far.
A lot of good points there. It looks to me like either path forward could work (The key word is could) as far as one path being with Fields and the other without him. It may in fact be best to draft a QB. The upgrades on offense will benefit the QB1 no matter which path forward the Bears choose to take. I think that there is risk associated with both paths. But if the Bears feel one of the QB’s in this draft is best then hey, I am good with that.
Yeah. I disagree, But that's ok as far as I'm concerned
He's currently a borderline starter. Bottom third of the league among starting QBs. First 3 weeks of this season he was the worst starter in the entire NFL, behind even Howell and Dobbs.
I can buy him becoming a mid-level starter with more time and talent around him. That's his ceiling IMO. Many fans are ok with that; I am not. I want a clear top-10 QB, ideally pushing top-5.
Those that say he will become elite or near-elite next year are projecting an enormous jump in production and basing it on hope alone. We have seen nothing to indicate that is a plausible scenario. He has had maybe 2-3 really good games in his whole career and they were against bottom-tier defenses and/or crap QBs.
I really can't argue with this a whole lot. You are saying that your opinion is that he is a mid level starter. How do you argue with that? You may be right. You say you want a top 10 QB. Again, how do you argue with that? I agree. I actually haven't seen anyone saying he will be elite or next to elite next year. I have seen people (me included) saying he has the tools to be elite or near elite next year with the right changes. I just like the ideal situation (yeah.... I know ideal hardly ever happens) where his abilities seen on the field (such as ability to place the ball perfectly on long throws), ability to stay calm, elite running and elusive ability, sturdy QB that stays healthy, as well as progress made in decisions, progress made in seeing his progressions allow him to grow with the right coaches and plays called to his strenghts. This would allow us to keep the first pick and either trade for more equity or get someone like MHJ, which would really raise the level of play.
I just don't know if Williams would be any better. But I do know we would lose that first pick. However I WOULD GLADLY GIVE UP THE FIRST PICK ON AN ELITE QB if JF is not the guy. We are not going to get anywhere if we do not have good QB play. I have just seen too many QBs being picked here in Chicago and we never get any production. That is not to say that we should not try. That is certain failure. I just like this guys skill set and mental makeup. I think a lot of times, he was held back from the deep plays, WRs were not getting open, he was getting jumped on almost at the snap, etc. I just didn't like what I saw in terms of trying to maximize his potential. Even with his lack of success, this kid does not look to me to have given up or seem defeated. In the past, I have seen a QBs demeanor and style of play change when they did not do well or got sacked a lot. As of now, I have not seen that with him (although I am not in his head). I think this time, given the right tools, this guy is not a lost cause, and I want the picks to build the team? Am I wrong? Honestly, very possibly. I am out on a limb because he has not produced and all I have to say he can is what I see of him and knowing that he has had the tools to be great. But I think in the end, they are going to trade him. If so, how he does is going to depend on where he goes.
But again, context is needed. Stroud wasn't seen as the best QB prospect in the draft, nor at a level of Williams or Maye. Houston, though some want to argue with this, was also in a better place than we would have been had we not made the trade. They already had a very good o-line anchored by a stud left tackle in Laremy Tunsil. They already had a #1 receiver ready to break out in his 3rd year based off a lot of very good things he did the year before, and depth at the position after that. They signed a legit tight end in free agency and they hired a great coaching staff. We draft Stroud here at #1 instead of making the trade and he's throwing to Mooney and Claypool as his best receivers and playing behind a line that has Lucas Patrick at center who knows at right tackle. Night and day different situation. You deal with the information you have at the time and the situation you're in.
We're in a MUCH different situation this time around, as we've discussed...which is why I don't think they trade the pick. Poles worked this masterfully, and yes, some luck was involved too...but what is it they say? Luck is the product of design or something or other. He gave Fields a legit weapon all while improving the infrastructure for a rookie QB to come into should they need to go that route.
I agree with you. The analysts didn't see it.
However, that is Poles job, isn't it? His job is to cut thru the BS and make unbiased decisions even if they are unpopular in the short-term. As I have said before, I'm not a big proponent of the "Bears ruin QBs" manta the fanbase loves to use as a crutch. I have never seen a Bears QB go somewhere else and blossom into a star and I doubt I will see it this time either with Justin. IMHO, the Bears main problem with QBs has been that they suck at scouting them (and later developing them). They seem to excel at scouting defense but at QB they suck and have for many years.
Poles said he needed to be "blown away" and he clearly wasn't when he should have been. That's on scouting once again. Stroud is only gonna get better with experience and Houston adding talent around him. He should have been the pick.
Having said that, I understand why Poles didn't go that route for the reasons I mentioned before. No one serious blames him under those circumstances.
But he WILL BE BLAMED if he repeats that this year and he fully knows that. He's not gonna get another pass. That's my point. Barring an arrest or some major red flag getting uncovered in the interview process, Williams is gonna be the QB next year and Fields will be traded.
Between that and the fact that we probably will be nowhere near the first pick next year, I think he is going with a new QB.
