Justin Fields has improved - but enough?

Whatever you think of Justin and his chances to become an elite QB, there's no question the Bears jacked up the process.  Whether doing it better would have yielded vastly different results 3 years in is unknowable and will be debated for years.  But they still shouldn't have jacked it up.  It's not that complicated or difficult to do.

The Bears just do this shit.  They seemingly can't help themselves.  It's maddening.  It appears they will never change or learn.

They just (likely) DID IT AGAIN. 

When you are bringing in a new rookie QB (I'm talking a 1st rounder here you see as your future, not a scrub), you ensure that the front office and coaching staff are ALIGNED with him.  IOW, you ensure that those people are on the same timeline as the new QB--which in effect means 3 seasons worth of leash.  That way all parties are pulling in the same direction toward the same goal and none of them are tempted by personal motivations such as making short-term moves to save their job rather than focusing exclusively on the 3-year goal of taking a rookie QB to the point you're happy to hand him a huge $250m+ contract.

The Bears organization just can't seem to get that simple concept through their thick skulls.  For instance:

You DON'T allow a lame duck GM to draft a new QB and then fire him a year later.
You DON'T entrust a lame duck HC or OC to oversee the QB's development and then fire him a year later.

If you are planning to draft a QB, and you do not have the infrastructure in place (GM, HC, OC, etc.) that you are comfortable riding with for 3 more years, then you fire them and replace them with a whole new group so that everyone is aligned with the new QB.

It doesn't matter if he/they is "a nice guy" or "showed improvement".  It doesn't matter if one or more of them have money still due to them, you cheap-ass McCaskey/Phillips.  You bite the bullet and reset it properly to maximize the chances of longer-term success.  It is just the cost of doing business.

Just this week the Bears had the ideal opportunity to finally get it right.  For once, this would have been a plum HC job for a prime candidate to want.  You have a rising young core on defense in place, a stud WR, a solid TE, a few young pieces on the OL, plenty of cap space, and two 1st round picks in the top-10 including the #1 overall.  All this with a team that managed to win 7 games and could easily be in the playoff picture next season, even with a rookie QB.

Instead, the Bears did what they always do.  They half-assed it by throwing away almost the entire coaching staff but keeping a replaceable holdover HC with a 10-24 record.  Just like they did with Cutler, Trubisky, and Fields, they have again misaligned the infrastructure and set up potential future perverse incentives.  

If they decide to stick with Justin, that means he and Flus are in "win now mode" for 2024 (last yr of Fields rookie contract) so what OC is gonna want to serve under him knowing he's on the hotseat?  It would also be Fields' 3rd OC and 3rd offensive scheme in 4 years which makes zero sense for an organization that preaches "continuity".

If they decide to draft Caleb (or whoever), they damn well better be fully prepared to keep Flus and the new OC for 3 more seasons to see it through.  Even though its hardly ideal to have a defensive HC whose entire chosen slate of subordinate staff has just been canned, in charge of rookie QB development.

It doesn't have to be this hard.  They make it harder than it needs to be.

It tells me Poles is making a huge bet on Flus.  Let's ignore the record and the 4th Q collapses and all that.  Say he gets a complete pass for his first 2 years.  Even so, Flus's near entire staff has been let go now.  Only the STC and OL coach are left.  Poles is entrusting this guy to rebuild 3/4 of the coaching staff and get it right when he clearly didn't get it right to begin with.  Poles clearly LOVES the Flus so I hope he's correct.

If they don't draft a QB and decide to stick with Fields, how could it not be a decisive year?  What if things don't go well and they finish with 6th wins?  Fields would certainly be done here and I can't see Flus surviving that either.  I'm reminding myself of 2014 and 2019 which were two other seasons where the natural progression turned out to be not very natural. 

You think that potential new OC's would be happy to take on a do-or-die 4th year for Fields.  OK, we will have to agree to disagree on that one.  I think many top candidates would be reluctant to take that on and would much prefer to start fresh with Caleb (or whoever) and have more runway to work with.

As for Herbert, I don't know his coaching history but ok I'll take your word for it.  That's certainly not the typical plan.  His career passing stats in his first 3 seasons averaged 4700 yards and 31 TDs per yr.  Fields would have to roughly DOUBLE to reach that.  As a passer Herbert >> Fields so not sure the comparison is apt at all.  Turns out Herbert is really really good and Fields is well.....not so good.  

Regarding a rookie, the point is to NOT have to constantly reshuffle his scheme and OC once he hits the NFL.  Wasn't that one of the biggest complaints made about Fields first year being ruined and wasted by Nagy?

Yeah, Poles is showing an awful lotta faith in a guy that doesn't have much of a history or pedigree to stand on.  They had a perfect chance to reset.

Fun fact:
The Bears haven't had an OC for longer than 2 seasons in a long, long time.  I saw the stat somewhere and forgot the exact number but it's something like 15-20 years.