The offense can improve just by the fact that our young players (esp. Trubisky) are getting more experience in NFL and with playing together in the system. That is not the way to evaluate this trade. The question remains what Davis+5th are going to CONTRIBUTE to the improvement. Curious that nobody seems to venture an opinion on that question, even though all you guys applaud the trade.
Actually it is the way to evaluate the trade. As long as we improve as a team and go deeper in the playoffs, we are better. To do that we will need to be able to run effectively in certain situations. As long as we can do that, we are getting what we need from the running game. If we do not, then there is an issue. But we have no idea what Nagy's eventual plans of the offense are. So if we do not have a back who gets 1000+ yards of offense a season is that a bad, or is it totally irrelevant?
All any of us can do is to hope the front office and coaching staff are making the right decisions and hope for the best. I am willing to trust Nagy and Pace because they have made huge strides on how the team has played. If that continues, we will all be happy. If things so bad then there will be plenty to bitch about.
Nagy has all but said you won't have a 1000 yrd rusher in this O, probably won't have a 900 one either. Thats not how his O opperates, you'll get multiple backs getting multiple touches based on matchups and situations; and they won't all be rushes either. We'll have to look at all purpose yards from the rb this year to fully understand how they complimented the team.
And also consider that in Howard's first 2 years the Bears O was A) awful and B) entirely one-dimensional. He was their only weapon. Seems strange that the "blocking" was so much better the 1st 2 years when every opponent knew to key on Howard.
He was used differently (i.e., misused) last year, and the blocking was poor. That's my take. If he plays the full season with the Eagles, I expect he will be over 1,000 yards again.
What are you guys expecting from Davis? Or this 5th round pick? We are in Super Bowl mode. We need guys who can produce NOW. Until proven otherwise, I worry that Davis+5th is going to be a big downgrade at the RB position.
First it's "he didn't get the ball enough". When shown fact he received only 2 less carries than when he had his best season his rookie year it becomes "he was misused". I mean come on now. The percentage of stuffed runs this year for the Bears was 20.5%, in Howards rookie year it was 18%. Not a huge difference there.
Why are you expecting him to have over 1000 yards? In 3 years the Eagles haven't had a running back with more than 175 carries or over 1000 yards in a season. How is Howard MAGICALLY going to produce more yards with drastically less carries...especially when the initial defense of his lack of production was him not getting the ball enough?
As for Davis...I'm expecting him to produce similarly to Howard but be much more a part of the pass game. That will help this offense tremendously because when he's in the backfield teams will have to respect him as a pass catcher...which they never had to do for Howard. Howard was a 5th round pick...so why are you assuming that Davis, Cohen(why you left him out I'm not sure) and a pick(I put pick because we don't know if it will be a 5th round pick or not, it could be a third or fourth) will be a "big downgrade"? Especially when you take into account that back will be selected because they fit what Nagy wants to do offensively.
You are aware of where they got Howard in the draft right? Same w/Amos, Jackson, Callaghan, Leno? Pace has shown he can get value out of the 3rd day picks, AND udfa. As for Davis, remember that Hicks was an uknown quantity when he came here, and Most people hated Massie, who has done well enough. People laughed at the idea of Prince. Pace has had hits and misses in both, but he just built a winning team after scrapping all the garbage, feel free to give the guy some space.
btw you keep saying the blocking was poor, but it wasn't poor for the other rb's; why was that? Fact is if you'd watched any of the video's breaking down Howards game you would realize that Howard was missing a lot of open holes and creating a lot of the issues himself. It's why the O worked BETTER w/out Howard in it.
What do I expect, I expect the O to run better then it did last year(if key players remain healthy). I expect the O to continue to score 24-30 ppg and continue to win; unlike when the Bears primary RB/point of emphasis was Howard.
Yes, it is possible that this trade could turn out fabulously. It is also possible that this trade leaves a hole at the RB position that Davis+5th can't really fill. We can both write here for a month, and we still won't know the answers until the season unfolds. Let's just say that I am not optimistic about what will become the trade results. As for Howard, for every example of him missing a hole last season, I could show you 6 where he was surrounded by tacklers with absolutely nowhere to run. The blocking was generally lousy, plus the play-calling was not favorable to his running style.
Yes, it is possible that this trade could turn out fabulously. It is also possible that this trade leaves a hole at the RB position that Davis+5th can't really fill. We can both write here for a month, and we still won't know the answers until the season unfolds. Let's just say that I am not optimistic about what will become the trade results. As for Howard, for every example of him missing a hole last season, I could show you 6 where he was surrounded by tacklers with absolutely nowhere to run. The blocking was generally lousy, plus the play-calling was not favorable to his running style.
Do it.
Ha! I said “could” —meaning if I had video of every game and a week to look at it. I don’t. Let’s look at this trade after we can compare Davis+5th next year to Howard.
Ha! I said “could” —meaning if I had video of every game and a week to look at it. I don’t. Let’s look at this trade after we can compare Davis+5th next year to Howard.
again it's not Davis + 5, it's Davis + the rb they draft this year + a 5th(or 6th). Also it's not them vs howard last year, it's the Rb's as a whole vs the Rb's as a whole, 2018 to 2019, not just rushing either, rushing + rec. That's how the RB's will be used from here on out; think of multiple versions of Forte but none getting 250 carries, they will all combine for those rush attempts and receiving attempts that equal previous years rb rushing and receiving attempts.
no bell cows no Payton, Anderson, Forte, Howard. don't know the names of other pass first high potent offenses, you won't here either
We have little else to talk about right now, so I'm going to beat a few points to death here.
1) Replacement: Howard isn't being replaced by Davis. He's being replaced by Davis + a draft pick + Patterson (who will prob average a couple carries/game). That draft pick won't be "a 5th" as David said. There's a 95% chance IMO that Pace will draft a RB in either the 3rd or 4th. That's 1-2 rounds earlier than Howard himself was drafted.
2) Value: Howard was openly on the trading block for months. There was no ambiguity whatsoever about that. It was no secret even to casual fans much less GMs throughout the league. Pace did everything short of hanging a "For Sale" sign around his neck. That means Mr. Market has spoken and Mr. Market knows a lot more than casual (and biased) fans do. Let's face it--we fans naturally tend to overestimate the trade value of our own favorites. 31 other teams knew Howard was available for the right price and 30 of them either offered less than Philly did or weren't even interested at all. No matter how much you may want to believe your house is worth $500k, when you list it for several months and the best offer you get is $350k, then it is only worth 350. Apparently the rest of the NFL doesn't think Howard is some kind of irreplaceable RB or someone would have offered a much higher price for him. #realitycheck
3) 2018: I've been too lazy up to this point to do this but I gave in finally and checked out Howard's actual stats from this past season. My recollection from last year was that he really struggled until the latter part of the season and when I looked up the actual numbers that turned out to be true.
JoHo had a solid game week 1 vs the Pack then all but disappeared for the heart of the season.
Over the next TEN games, he was pretty much trash. He had only 1 game during that stretch where he averaged at least 4 yards/carry. Cumulatively he had 147 carries for 454 yards which is a pathetic average of 3.09 yards/rush.
He had zero 100 yard rushing games until December, only 145 total receiving yards, and 0 receiving TDs all year.
Sorry, but I'm really finding it hard to believe that level of production can't be replaced, especially by RBs who are dual threat and fit Nagy's O better. When you consider that we got a 5th/6th round pick for him (albeit delayed until next year), added ~ $2m in cap space, and he would been gone after the 2019 season anyway, I can't criticize Pace for moving on the way he did.
1. Patterson not part of this trade, and will not be much of a factor in the running game. We are basically counting on Davis to replace Howard.
2. The issue is not what he can be traded for. It is whether he has more value as a Bear than what we are getting. His trade value would have been higher if not for the off-year in 2018. I roughly compare him to Carlos Hyde who had nearly 1,000 yards in the years where he had 200+ carries and a 4.0 average. He was traded for a 5th round pick after an off-year. He is better than that. Watch him and Howard both this coming season.
1) Is just not true. Nagy has repeatedly said no rb is going to get 20-25 carries a game, that is the role people wanted/expected Howard to have, but it's not there. I doubt any get to 250 carries this year which is 15 and 1/2 a game, maybe not 200 which is 12 and 1/2, instead you'll have a lot of rb's getting 8-10 + a handful of receptions.
2) His value was to many touches(270) for to few yards(1070), not enough ypc(3.7)/ypr(7.3) and not enough td's(6) for his increased 2mil cap space. That was his value. That can be replaced more effiecntly through Davis/Patterson/Rookie + everyone else dividing up those 270 touches and getting more yards, better ypc/ypr and more TD's and more cap flexibility added in. The entirity of the NFL disagrees that he has any actual value beyond a maybe 5th next year. There was nothing irreplaceable about his performance last year, which is the only performance that matters b/c it was the only performance in this system.
RB's had 468 attempts last year, 250 from Howard, but I'm guessing they won't get much past 440, Patterson will probably have 50 rushing attempts(he had 42 last year w/NE), Davis will likely have 100(similar to Cohen), the rookie will have 90, Mitch will likely have another 60 or so, then everyone else will make up the rest, probably around 5-6 carries a game for the WR's, FB, TE, other RBs. There is your Howard replacements. But the extra value will come vai increased receptions from the RB's only 101 receptions for the RB's in 17, I'm betting it's closer to 150-180.
There is no bell cow rb anymore, to paraphrase Monty Python: E's passed on! This position is no more! He has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! ... 'e's s pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! This is an EX position!
1) Is just not true. Nagy has repeatedly said no rb is going to get 20-25 carries a game, that is the role people wanted/expected Howard to have, but it's not there. I doubt any get to 250 carries this year which is 15 and 1/2 a game, maybe not 200 which is 12 and 1/2, instead you'll have a lot of rb's getting 8-10 + a handful of receptions.
2) His value was to many touches(270) for to few yards(1070), not enough ypc(3.7)/ypr(7.3) and not enough td's(6) for his increased 2mil cap space. That was his value. That can be replaced more effiecntly through Davis/Patterson/Rookie + everyone else dividing up those 270 touches and getting more yards, better ypc/ypr and more TD's and more cap flexibility added in. The entirity of the NFL disagrees that he has any actual value beyond a maybe 5th next year. There was nothing irreplaceable about his performance last year, which is the only performance that matters b/c it was the only performance in this system.
RB's had 468 attempts last year, 250 from Howard, but I'm guessing they won't get much past 440, Patterson will probably have 50 rushing attempts(he had 42 last year w/NE), Davis will likely have 100(similar to Cohen), the rookie will have 90, Mitch will likely have another 60 or so, then everyone else will make up the rest, probably around 5-6 carries a game for the WR's, FB, TE, other RBs. There is your Howard replacements. But the extra value will come vai increased receptions from the RB's only 101 receptions for the RB's in 17, I'm betting it's closer to 150-180.
There is no bell cow rb anymore, to paraphrase Monty Python: E's passed on! This position is no more! He has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! ... 'e's s pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! This is an EX position!
What rookie? Is this person really getting nearly as many carries as Davis (100 vs. 90)? So, if they get about 200 carries together, we will have something to compare. Overall, is the Bears running offense going to rank lower in the NFL stats than last year? Of course, none of us cares, so long as we are in the Super Bowl. That is the question that will be answered when the season gets rolling.
1) Is just not true. Nagy has repeatedly said no rb is going to get 20-25 carries a game, that is the role people wanted/expected Howard to have, but it's not there. I doubt any get to 250 carries this year which is 15 and 1/2 a game, maybe not 200 which is 12 and 1/2, instead you'll have a lot of rb's getting 8-10 + a handful of receptions.
2) His value was to many touches(270) for to few yards(1070), not enough ypc(3.7)/ypr(7.3) and not enough td's(6) for his increased 2mil cap space. That was his value. That can be replaced more effiecntly through Davis/Patterson/Rookie + everyone else dividing up those 270 touches and getting more yards, better ypc/ypr and more TD's and more cap flexibility added in. The entirity of the NFL disagrees that he has any actual value beyond a maybe 5th next year. There was nothing irreplaceable about his performance last year, which is the only performance that matters b/c it was the only performance in this system.
RB's had 468 attempts last year, 250 from Howard, but I'm guessing they won't get much past 440, Patterson will probably have 50 rushing attempts(he had 42 last year w/NE), Davis will likely have 100(similar to Cohen), the rookie will have 90, Mitch will likely have another 60 or so, then everyone else will make up the rest, probably around 5-6 carries a game for the WR's, FB, TE, other RBs. There is your Howard replacements. But the extra value will come vai increased receptions from the RB's only 101 receptions for the RB's in 17, I'm betting it's closer to 150-180.
There is no bell cow rb anymore, to paraphrase Monty Python: E's passed on! This position is no more! He has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! ... 'e's s pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! This is an EX position!
What rookie? Is this person really getting nearly as many carries as Davis (100 vs. 90)? So, if they get about 200 carries together, we will have something to compare. Overall, is the Bears running offense going to rank lower in the NFL stats than last year? Of course, none of us cares, so long as we are in the Super Bowl. That is the question that will be answered when the season gets rolling.
go to the mock draft thread there are a bunch of names that should be there 3rd through 5.
rookie Howard had 200 plus carries why is it hard to believe one couldnt get a fraction of that? rb is one of the easiest transitions from college to pro.
rushing might be similar or lower to last year but all purpose yards and tds should be higher
I'm not a believer in sb this year Nagy said 3 yrs to fully install his o. they should be in the playoffs, but if they aren't it wont be bc of the howard trade. it will be bc Mitch wasnt good enough and the defense fell back in the rankings; neither of which is helped by Howard. when he was the key to the offense the O was bad and the team lost more then won