We are talking about this too much in the draft thread. So who is Cutler's market? Who would realistically want him? What makes him desirable, undesirable? How does he compare against the market? Etc, etc..
I'd say a fifth, but you ain't getting my bottle of Jack Daniels for cutler so I'll say a 3rd. Somebody always overpays. Usually it's us, hopefully we start getting our ROI.
I'd like to think he's able to fetch a 4th, or better, but realistically think a 6th is the best outcome and nothing is the most probable.
Who wants to list off all the issues Cutler has had in Chicago for me? How many OC has he had and how many excuses have been made for him. He is a .500 QB at his best. He played 5 games last season and only won one game. He threw 5 INTs, fumbled 6 times, and only accounted for 4 TDs. He's just a guy! A winning franchise that just needs a QB will look at Romo before Jay. Bad franchises will look to the draft before Jay. There are younger QBs on the market that can be a guy. Jay isn't special, we should know that after 8 seasons. He will only get worse at 34 years of age, not better. He is not worth a trade for any franchise, I hope I'm wrong.
Worth noting, most people have labeled me a Cutler lover, or whatever. I love the guys attitude, but he's run his course and hasn't really done anything to impress other franchises.
I went with a 6th round pick. Every player I've seen the Bears trade away I thought were worth more and all they got was a 6th so I'm sticking with that. Maybe I'll be wrong and they get a 5th or 4th.
Let me first list teams that don't need a starting QB (right now) for next season: Atlanta, New England, Dallas, Green Bay, Washington*, New Orleans, Indianapolis, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, "San Diego", Seattle, Oakland, Minnesota**, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Carolina, New York Giants, Jacksonville***, Los Angeles Rams [By my count, that's 23 teams]
* - Assuming Cousin's returns ** - Assuming Bradford is their man, he should be with Shurmur now their OC and the connection they have. *** - With Doug Marrone promoted to HC, Blake is probably safe as the starter
That leaves: Cleveland, San Francisco, {obviously Chicago} New York Jets, Buffalo, Arizona, Denver, Miami, Houston
Let's break these down:
Cleveland - They have RG3. He could be gone, or the guys they have could be the bridge to the QB they draft next. They stuck with Cody Kessler for much of this season, no reason they won't utilize him again over Cutler. There are rumors they like JimmyG. There are connections between Jackson and McCarron.
San Francisco - New GM, New HC still to be decided. I'm not sure a new GM wants to make their mark on a new team by adding an often criticized QB. Making this destination even less likely is the fact Josh McDanials could be the next HC. Add in the fact they have a top 2 draft pick and may prefer a cheaper, backup bridge option compared to Cutler.
Chicago - With the value with think he has, should we keep him? The rumors are the franchise is ready to cut ties, but what are our options... I'm sure there's another thread to debate this.
New York Jets - At pick 6, they could be in prime position for a QB to fall to them. This team is hard to judge with the retiring of Chan Gailey. They could also be gutting heir entire offense this offseason. If that happens, Cutler would probably not be preferred by them, or he could be. Lots of moving parts here, but this seems like a logical spot.
Buffalo - Tyrod is as good as gone, right? If he is, they have a hole to fill. This is another spot that is hard to gauge with a new HC and looking for a new OC. They do have a developmental prospect in Cardale Jones who cold earn a shot, but that shouldn't stop them from looking into Jay. Cutler could be an option here.
Arizona - This may raise a few eyebrows, but Palmer is currently 37 years old and Arians does have a preference towards older QBs. This might be a premature move, but he would be a fit...there just isn't a spot right now.
Denver - A common theme, new HC, needs new OC. They have options on the roster that are as good or better than Cutler. I would look at Romo as an upgrade before Jay.
Miami - Not that Ryan Tannehill has been spectacular, he could need major knee surgery this offseason. There is a connection with Gase, I'm not sure how strong it is though. Matt Moore is signed on through next season. This is another team I could see adding in the draft vs adding Jay and his contract.
Houston - Brock Osweiler... can you have two guys getting paid well on the team? I don't see them panicking to add Jay, rather, trusting O'brien to fix his QB.
So out of my list of teams that may want a new starting QB, I only see two logical fits... Bills and Jets, and both of those teams have moving parts that could remove their need for his services. That's not a whole lot of competition. I don't exactly see Jay as a backup, but that could be his reality. Do you pay a backup 12.5M to sit the bench? I wouldn't.
I think we can expect more than Bear's fans think. Think about the ludicrous contracts and draft picks teams throw around for QBs. Cutler, in some GM's eyes, could be the different between a playoff birth and another season of mediocrity. Still, I've learned to temper my expectations when dealing with the Bears.
I think we can expect more than Bear's fans think. Think about the ludicrous contracts and draft picks teams throw around for QBs. Cutler, in some GM's eyes, could be the different between a playoff birth and another season of mediocrity. Still, I've learned to temper my expectations when dealing with the Bears.
I think you have to keep two concepts separate. One is his value based on what you believe he can contribute to a team in a system. The other is what other teams will be willing to give up to get him. The second is significantly influenced by other teams's estimation of what we will do if no one bites on any trade talks. IMO teams will be willing to wait well into May or June on Cutler because we get the maximum cap savings by cutting him post June 1 (link).
If we pick up a day 1 starter QB in the draft (and I sure hope we do), Jay's trade value will really drop. Every GM in the league will just wait for us to cut him. And this has nothing to do with his relative merits as a pro QB.
The only way we will get anything for Cutler is if the market value for a 34 year old career .500 QB is higher than his 2017 contract salary (12.5 million).
