Brad Biggs: 10 thoughts on the Bears
Jan 2, 2017 15:17:59 GMT -6
AlexM and weneedmorelinemen like this
Post by JABF on Jan 2, 2017 15:17:59 GMT -6
Brad Biggs take on it all. There is a wealth of valuable/interesting information in this one. Dynamite article. The information from scouts that Biggs relays to us here is very interesting.
Biggs is hands down the best beat reporter, IMHO. I love reading his articles.
Biggs is hands down the best beat reporter, IMHO. I love reading his articles.
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10 thoughts on the Bears' 38-10 loss to the Vikings
10 thoughts after the Chicago Bears closed out the 2016 season with a 3-13 record following a 38-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.
1. The Bears are going to wait until Wednesday to tie a bow on the 2016 season. That is when general manager Ryan Pace and coach John Fox will conduct an end-of-season media session at Halas Hall. As I wrote in my column after the game, that gives the general manager and coach almost 72 hours to make sure they are in lockstep with a multitude of issues. It will be interesting to hear what Pace has to say about many topics, particularly about the quarterback position and the future of Jay Cutler as well as the team’s most prominent free-agent-to-be wide receiver Alshon Jeffery.
The delay before the media session also gives Pace and Fox a little time to brush up on some key talking points because they’re not going to walk into this without a clear message that has been carefully constructed to set the tone for the offseason ahead. They’re going to have a script and as best they can, they’re going to stick to it.
There’s no question they will talk about the significant playing time the rookie class got this season, experience that hopefully is a benefit as soon as next year. They might throw some stats out to back that up. Certainly they will talk about widespread injuries that affected the team with 19 players landing on injured reserve. Don’t forget there were a good handful of players that missed time without going on IR. Cornerbacks Bryce Callahan (five games) and Deiondre’ Hall (eight), outside linebackers Leonard Floyd (four) and Pernell McPhee (seven), running back Jeremy Langford (four) and left guard Josh Sitton (three) all missed chunks of time without being shut down.
I’d expect Pace and Fox to talk about a plan already in place to field a healthier 53-man squad in 2017. Fox already revealed some of that plan last week on the team-run coach’s show on WBBM-AM 780.
“Some of it a lot of times is bad luck but you just can’t go with that,” Fox said. “You have to look at approaches. I think with the new CBA (collective bargaining agreement), I think you need to adjust things because the offseason (program) is nine weeks. They’re going to get 105 days off after the Minnesota game. I don’t think you can go sit on the couch for 105 days. When we come back we’re going to have a conditioning test before we even start the offseason. Same thing will happen after that nine-week offseason (program) when we have to give them a six-week break before we even report to camp. Again, putting the pressure on them to stay in shape and report to camp with a conditioning test.
“Those are all new things to make sure players understand you can’t get in shape to be a world-class athlete in nine weeks.”
I don’t know that the Bears had a bunch of sloppy players that were out of shape when training camp kicked off this past summer. They talked about nose tackle Eddie Goldman being in better condition and he was just that. It’s unfortunate a high ankle sprain cost him nearly three-quarters of the season. Goldman played in six games and made five starts but as defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said this past week, he barely played in a couple of those games. That was a major blow for the front seven, arguably the biggest.
Conditioning tests are not uncommon in the NFL during the offseason or at the start of training camp. You will recall former defensive tackle Marcus Harrison showed up out of shape to training camp in 2011, after the lockout ended, and took a while to pass his test to get cleared to practice. Fox can’t exactly call the CBA “new” either. The NFL and NFLPA are six years into the current 10-year agreement and the other 31 teams are working with the same workplace time constraints.
Soft-tissue injuries were not a major factor for the Bears this season either. Did they have some? Sure. Good luck finding a franchise immune to them. High ankle sprains were a problem and there were broken bones, more broken bones than you would ever want to see along with some knee injuries (McPhee, Kyle Fuller, Lamarr Houston, Danny Trevathan and Hroniss Grasu).
Conditioning tests seem like a good idea but that’s just getting started. Yes, Fox is right when he says bad luck plays a part in it. Sometimes, injuries can be cyclical in the NFL. One year you get hit pretty hard. The next year your training room doesn’t look like a MASH unit.
Pace and Fox have expressed a high degree of faith in the strength and conditioning staff led by Jason George and the athletic training staff led by Nate Breske. Pace started a sports science program in the building. I’d be a little surprised if there are changes in these areas but you never know. But it would not be surprising if they change their approach in these areas. In fact, you’d think they’re going to mix a variety of things up, right?
Let’s see if Pace and Fox share a few more details when it comes to their thoughts on reducing injuries in the year to come. It’s early and this is likely something they will spend some time on in the coming weeks so maybe all of the answers aren’t there yet, but my bet is this is a major talking point for them.
2. In between this game and the loss last Sunday to the Redskins at Soldier Field when coach John Fox said he believes the Bears are “closer” than a lot of folks think they are, there was plenty of reaction. Most of it was negative and I think that’s understandable given the circumstances of this season and the team’s position in the basement of the NFC North for the third consecutive season. The Bears haven’t finished in last place three consecutive years since doing it four straight seasons from 1997 to 2000 when they were part of the five-team NFC Central. Maybe you recall the Bears went from those four straight last-place finishes to a division crown in 2001 with a 13-3 record. Unfortunately, they couldn’t sustain success with that team as it struggled mightily from 2002 through 2004.
Just like Fox shared one nugget on the coach’s show on WBBM-AM 780 about instituting conditioning tests in 2017, he expanded a little more on this topic during the radio segment with play-by-play voice Jeff Joniak. Fox said there are “enough holes we can fill in one more offseason.” He added that he sees the roster needing eight to 10 guys, “we’re that close. I finally think we can finally make a push.”
I wouldn’t disagree that the Bears are eight to 10 guys away. Heck, any football team is going to look significantly different when you talk about finding that many key contributors for a roster. But if that’s what Fox believes and general manager Ryan Pace is of the same mind-set, I’d imagine that foretells a busy period in free agency for the club.
You want your biggest additions to come via the draft and the Bears own the No. overall 3 pick but what’s a realistic number of key contributors from a rookie draft class? Pace’s 2016 class has been praised and there are probably three key contributors as I see it – outside linebacker Leonard Floyd, center Cody Whitehair and running back Jordan Howard. Linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski looks like he has real upside after he was pressed into action by Danny Trevathan’s knee injury and Jerrell Freeman’s suspension but I don’t know he quite reached the level of “key contributor.” The Bears haven’t gotten what they were hoping for from defensive end Jonathan Bullard, the third-round pick. That doesn’t mean he can’t flourish in Year 2. In fact, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio had some positive things to say about him this past week but he showed he needs considerable work and a big offseason to reach that level in 2017.
So, let’s say the team can get three of four key contributors from the 2017 draft class. Their hope has to be that more members of the 2016 draft class emerge. Bullard and cornerback Deiondre’ Hall would be a great place to start. That leaves some heavy lifting to do in free agency, where the Bears (like most teams) have had hits and misses. I’ve often said when you work to build a foundation for your organization through free agency, it’s like building a house on sand. Your structure isn’t going to be very sound. To that end, I think Pace took a little different approach this past year in free agency when he targeted guys that were coming out of their rookie contracts. Those are safer buys, in my opinion, than bringing in clearly descending players like safety Antrel Rolle, one of the free-agent flops from 2015.
The Bears are going to be flush with salary cap room and if the budget is ample, they will be able to add plenty of players via free agency. It’s a good way to plug a hole here and there and certainly the Bears have some holes (think the secondary for starters). Free agency and the draft work like a puzzle and if you plug the right pieces in, you can help the organization. But be careful thinking free agency is the ticket to the Bears turning it around. It’s not a path for sustained, long-term success and their record over the last decade is proof because they’ve routinely been busy in free agency.
3. With the third pick in the 2017 NFL draft, the Chicago Bears select …
With 116 days to go until the first round of the draft on April 27, it’s premature to project who the Bears are going to take. I reached out to an NFC college scouting director and asked him what five names would be to focus in on for the No. 3 pick?
“That list has got to be QB heavy,” he wrote in a text. “So (DeShone) Kizer and (Mitch) Trubisky. But those top two teams could go QB which could push (Texas A&M defensive end Myles) Garrett to the Bears. Garrett and (Leonard) Floyd would be unstoppable. Thrown in (Alabama linebacker) Reuben Foster, maybe (LSU safety) Jamal Adams because safety always seems to be a concern there. Leonard Fournette is elite but at No. 3 after drafting Jordan Howard seems a stretch. Dalvin Cook is good but Fournette is such a rare combo of elite power and speed. He can beat you so many ways. He can run over or around you.”
Then, I called a scout for an AFC club and tossed the same question at him. What five names would make a good but very preliminary watch list for the Bears at No. 3 overall?
“I would spend every single second, every time I had available with the quarterbacks and with their coaching staffs because I would need to know which quarterback has it,” he said. “I would 30 visit them, I would work them out and I would spend every second I could getting to know them.
“They’re not getting Myles Garrett because he’s going to go in the top two. They have to go after a quarterback. Think about it. As much as Trubisky has all the tools, it might be Deshaun Watson. He’s an athlete and at least he can protect himself from not getting killed there. They have to find a No. 1 receiver but they also have to find what? Another pass rusher, a cornerback. Can you name me five positions they’re not sitting there saying, ‘Wow, I need somebody.’ They’re not going to take a running back but at No. 3 they’re not going to take a pick that isn’t sexy. They need a sexy pick. They need the quarterback and there is a good group of cornerbacks. They can get a really good corner in Round 2 and there aren’t quarterbacks after those two (Trubisky and Watson).
“Jonathan Allen, the defensive lineman from Alabama, isn’t really truly an edge guy for the Bears. Is he J.J. Watt? No, he’s not. Is he going to be an edge rusher in a 3-4? No, he’s not. He’s really a good 3-4 defensive end. They’d be thrilled to have him but I don’t think he’s No. 3. I think they need a cornerback but I think they draft the quarterback first and in the second round I think they are still going to get a quality cornerback.
“If I was the general manager and I knew that my ass was on the line next year with the head coach, what do we truly need? Jay Cutler hasn’t worked. Let’s get rid of him. Matt Barkley is a good little backup. They need a good quarterback. They’re not going to wait until the third round to take one. They can’t.
“The LSU safety Jamal Adams? He’s a good player. But how much of an impact can he be? He’s a safety. How many Troy Polamalus do you know? This kid is a really good player. But I think there will be two really quality corners left for the Bears at the top of the second round.
“The first guy has gotta be a sexy pick. It’s gotta be a pass rusher. It’s gotta be a big-time corner but I don’t think there is a big-time corner that’s going No. 3. There’s probably not a pass rusher that is going No. 3. Tim Williams, the kid from Alabama, he’s got a lot of baggage. He’s gonna tumble a little bit.
“The other thing they can do if they take a quarterback early, maybe they can buy a little more time with the understanding he’s going to struggle a little at first like rookie quarterbacks tend to do. They’ve got to take a quarterback. You said you were looking for five names. Five names really isn’t what it’s about.”
4. The Bears will likely find out in the next week or so if they have a chance to coach one of the teams in the Senior Bowl later this month in Mobile, Ala. The Browns, who will own the No. 1 overall pick, will almost certainly be offered one of the slots. The 49ers, who pick No. 2, will not be in play if they blow up their power structure and fire the general manager and head coach, as has been speculated. That would make the Bears the logical next pick but nothing is decided at this point. The team could turn down the chance.
“Well, I’ve never done it in 27 years,” coach John Fox said when I asked if he’d considered the possibility. “I really can’t comment other than you get a chance to watch guys and work with the guys almost like you have them in your training camp. So, I see the benefits but I really can’t speak too much to that because I haven’t done it before.”
It’s hardly a foolproof draft aid though. The Jaguars staff coached at the Senior Bowl in 2014 when it had Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo on its roster. Jacksonville turned around and used the No. 3 pick in the draft that year on Blake Bortles, one of the reasons that coaching staff has been fired. So stay tuned on this situation. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like there will be a Carr on either Senior Bowl roster this year.
5. Any other year and Jordan Howard’s 1,313-yard rookie season probably isn’t checking in at No. 5 in the season-ending 10 Thoughts but, well, it’s been that kind of year. Howard’s 135-yard effort vaulted him to No. 2 in the league for the season. While Howard has no shot at NFL offensive rookie of the year honors with the Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott having huge seasons, Howard would be a good bet most other seasons.
Howard finished averaging 5.2 yards per game, the best by a primary Bears’ running back since Walter Payton averaged 5.5 in his 1,852-yard season of 1977. That’s what was really impressive. For some perspective on Howard, I turned to tight end Logan Paulsen, a seven-year veteran who has made a living in the NFL primarily blocking for running backs. I thought he had some really interesting stuff to say that’s worth taking a look at. My question was simple: Does Howard remind him of any other backs?
“Not particularly,” Paulsen said. “He’s got a very unique running style. He’s got amazing vision and he’s kind of got a sense how the run should hit. It’s very unique, very special. He’s got great acceleration. Not super top end (speed) but his zero to 10 is good and that helps him hit the hole real hard. I’m trying to think if there is anyone that comes to mind.
“I would compare him to Alfred (Morris), but I think Jordan’s vision is way better. They run hard. They kind of run physically. But he sees the cut way better, understands the scheme way better. I’m trying to think of big backs but he’s got a little more (stuff) to him than like Eddie George, for example. He’s a unique fella.
“I got here late (signed Sept. 4) so I saw him and I’m like, ‘Oh, he’s a fifth-round draft pick.’ His demeanor is so quiet. He is not very boisterous. And seemingly he’s just average in all areas but then once he gets the ball in his hands and he’s behind the line, the cuts that he sees are next level. One that comes to mind for me is at Indianapolis. I got short-necked on the edge, you know, and the lane was collapsing. Most backs, they see that, and they kind of abort the front-side read and they try to just cram it backside. He stuck it front side, he crammed it between me and the tackle and I swear to god the thing was about this big (holds up hands about 18 inches apart) and he got a 5-yard gain. There is a maturity there and an understanding to what we’re trying to do in the run game that very few backs have. It takes a special guy. Obviously, he had the big run that game (57 yards). It was blocked really well. To me, it’s that run I described to you, that’s what makes Jordan special.”
6. Congratulations to former Bears linebacker Tim Shaw, whose book “Blitz Your Life: Stories from an NFL and ALS Warrior” is being released Tuesday. The book isn’t about Shaw’s life story going from setting a single-season prep rushing record in Michigan to Penn State and then to the NFL as one of the best special teams players in the league. He was diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in April 2014 and he’s seeking to share some life lessons he’s picked up as he tackles the debilitating disease at full speed. He’s traveling to Israel this coming Sunday to undergo stem-cell treatment and is planning to visit South Africa in March to check off a bucket list item by visiting Victoria Falls. Shaw was at Soldier Field when the Bears hosted the Titans in November and was made a consultant for lack of a better term by Tennessee coach Mike Mularkey this season. Shaw would complete scouting reports for the special teams unit and meet with the players on a regular basis.
“I always thought I would write a book,” Shaw said. “I’ve always liked to write. But really I was waiting for that superstar moment or that championship win or that MVP situation, right? I thought, ‘Man, I better be ready to have a book when that moment comes.’ Really, I found myself in a situation where what I am going through is bigger than anything I ever could have imagined and no, it’s not what I wanted, but it is an opportunity to impact lives. So for me that was the motivation, to reach as many people as I can with the message.
“The book is about knowing who you are, embracing who you are and with that pursuing a life of purpose, becoming your best self and living a life that means something. That means eliminating the things that aren’t important and emphasizing and focusing on the things that are the upmost importance.”
Shaw can still walk and while his speech his slowed, he’s easy to understand. Those are obviously huge changes in his life and factors that are forcing him to adjust as he battles the disease. But the physical challenges are not the first things that he focuses on.
“It’s been a very obvious change in me,” he said. “The most obvious change I’ve seen is my lack of time for things that are insignificant. Anything from complaining about something minute or even just wasting time. I just don’t have any tolerance for it, the things that are just not of significance. I have made a big shift of everything I do, I want to matter. I want it to be something. I want it to be important. Also, embracing who I am. I have had to ask myself some really tough questions about who I am? What I am doing and why? It’s forced me to say alright, ‘Take away football. Take away money. Take away your body. Take away your voice. Who are you?’ It is a really difficult question to ask yourself and I think when you do that, you have the freedom to be yourself and the freedom to improve and the freedom to be real with people. Those are huge, huge things that have changed in my life.”
Shaw was busy in 2016, traveling to Australia, Hong Kong, Bali and Mexico, among other places.
“I have to stay on the move,” he said. “I’m doing everything I can. I am doing everything I want to do and I just have a blast. The message from me is find a way. If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. We love excuses and sometimes excuses are real. Shoot, if it is important enough to you, you will find a way. And maybe even more that, it’s about enjoying life and enjoying it with other people. That is what is at the center of what I am doing.”
The chance to reunite with the Titans, who released Shaw in 2013 as the disease took hold of his body before he knew what was going on was huge for him. Shaw has never shown anger toward the game while some wonder if there are connections between football and ALS.
“It’s been such an enjoyable season for me,” he said. “I feel like I have been reunited with the game I lost. To be embraced by the Titans organization, to be involved and to be involved in scouting and to be able to talk to the guys and help motivate a little bit, I have just enjoyed it so much just being around the guys.”
Shaw is hoping to make a bookstore appearance in the Chicago area in the near future. I’ll post details on Twitter when they become available. I’m looking forward to receiving the copy I purchased this week. You can order his book via Amazon here.
7. If that was Alshon Jeffery’s final game in a Bears uniform after five seasons, he went out quietly with one catch for 10 yards and only three total targets.
Jeffery will be a free agent following the season and there’s no way the Bears can place the franchise tag on him for a second time at $17.5 million. Previously, I was of the feeling that the Bears could not afford to let Jeffery walk out the front door of Halas Hall. They’re short on talent but Jeffery went from missing seven games because of injuries in 2015 to coming back and having a 52-catch season with 821 yards and two touchdowns. How do you justify doubling down on Jeffery after he was tagged for $14.599 million this year? Sure, the Bears will get a salary-cap credit for the suspension money Jeffery forfeited this season. That means a credit of about $3.43 million. In that light, you could say a second tag of Jeffery will only cost about $14.07 million, but it’s hard to justify he is worth that. The Bears do not have a No. 1 if Jeffery departs and he could very well get big money on the open market because the class of wide receivers is awful thin. But the last two seasons were contract years for Jeffery and if that’s what you are going to get from him in a contract year, what are you going to get from him after he’s been paid?
“I just play football,” Jeffery said when asked if he considered it could be his final game in a Bears uniform. “I didn’t think about that. Right now, I’m a Chicago Bear. It’s business at the end of the day.”
In that business, I asked him if his market value has gone up or down from this point last year?
“That’s for you guys to decide,” Jeffery said. “I know what type of player I am. That’s for you guys to decide. That’s for my agent or you guys to decide.”
Maybe I am wrong but the sense I get is the Bears are not going to want to invest in Jeffery for the long haul. Yes, that makes wide receiver a need, a real need for 2017.
8. The Bears’ future schedule looked pretty good at this time last season when you scanned it and saw the AFC South and NFC East. They had five games against teams that hired new head coaches. But it didn’t materialize. Looking ahead to the 2017 schedule, they have only four opponents that will be in the playoffs: Green Bay and Detroit (twice each), Atlanta and Pittsburgh. The only opponent next season that will be hiring a new coach at this point is the 49ers, who will play at Soldier Field for the third consecutive season with their third coach after facing Chip Kelly this season and Jim Tomsula the year before. It’s possible the Saints have a coaching change if New Orleans agrees to let Sean Payton out of his contract and then explores compensation in a potential trade with the Rams. If that happens, it will probably go down by Tuesday.
2017 home games: Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota, Atlanta, Carolina, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco
2017 road games: Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Philadelphia
9. If this is the end of the road for running back Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, it’s been terrific being able to watch him for so long compete against the Bears. Peterson had knee surgery in September but has been plagued by a groin injury since returning. I would imagine the 31-year-old plays somewhere next season if the Vikings release him and the only he seems likely to return is on a restructured contract. Peterson is due a $6 million roster bonus on March 11 and has a base salary of $11.75 million. There’s no way the Vikings are going to pay him $17.75 million in 2017.
Peterson has rushed for more yards against the Packers (1,.779) than any other team. But he averaged 111.6 against the Bears in 14 games, a tick above the 104.6 against Green Bay and 106.4 against Detroit. Peterson has more rushing touchdowns against the Bears (14) than any other team. Few will forget the game during his rookie season when he carried 20 times for 224 yards and three touchdowns at Soldier Field on Oct. 14, 2007. Hopefully he’s much healthier next season wherever he plays.
10. By my count the Bears had a total of 30 players spend time on the practice squad this season. That is the same number they had a year ago. Of the 30 this season, 14 appeared on the 53-man roster for at least week. That also mirrors what happened on the roster last season when 13 players spent time on the practice squad and the 53-man roster. The list of players to be on the practice squad and 53-man roster this season: CB De’Vante Bausby, TE Ben Braunecker, WR Daniel Braverman, LB John Timu, QB Matt Barkley, DB Demontre Hurst, OL Cornelius Edison, RB Raheem Mostert, DE Jimmy Staten, FB Paul Lasike, LB Jonathan Anderson, CB Jacoby Glenn, RB Bralon Addison and LB Josh Shirley, who was promoted on Saturday.
10a. The Bears finished the season with 11 takeaways, setting a new low for the franchise. Actually, they obliterated the previous mark of 17, which was set last season. They finished with eight interceptions as Cre’Von LeBlanc picked off Sam Bradford in the end zone. As bad as the Bears were on defense in 2014 (remember the 50-spots they allowed), that team had 24 takeaways. The last time the Bears had less was 2003 when there were 20. The Bears also had 20 in 2000 and 1982 (when there was a nine-game season because of the strike). The team’s media guide only goes back to 1965 for such statistics but the Bears always had at least 27 or more takeaways from 1965 through 1977 when there was a 14-game regular season. That was a different era of football and interceptions were far more common. This season, opposing quarterbacks threw 530 passes and there were only eight interceptions. That’s nuts and worse than last season when there were eight picks on 512 pass attempts by opponents.
10b. The Bears finished 15th on defense in the NFL, allowing 346.8 yards per game after slumping badly in the final three weeks. They ranked 24th in scoring allowing 24.9 points per game. The Bears were tied for last in the NFL with the Jets with a minus-20 turnover differential.
10c. Didn’t talk a whole lot about cornerback Sherrick McManis this season but he was a smart signing on a two-year contract back in March and he was really the leader of that unit. The Bears are not where they want to be on special teams but McManis did a nice job.
10d. U.S. Bank Stadium was nothing short of terrific and a huge upgrade over the Metrodome. It’s easily one of the nicest new stadiums in the league and worth checking out if you’re among the many fans that travel to see road games. I see you by the dozens and dozens each time the Bears travel.
10e. Hope everyone had a terrific holiday weekend. Best of luck on a safe and prosperous New Year and thanks for following along with 10 Thoughts this season.
10 thoughts on the Bears' 38-10 loss to the Vikings
10 thoughts after the Chicago Bears closed out the 2016 season with a 3-13 record following a 38-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.
1. The Bears are going to wait until Wednesday to tie a bow on the 2016 season. That is when general manager Ryan Pace and coach John Fox will conduct an end-of-season media session at Halas Hall. As I wrote in my column after the game, that gives the general manager and coach almost 72 hours to make sure they are in lockstep with a multitude of issues. It will be interesting to hear what Pace has to say about many topics, particularly about the quarterback position and the future of Jay Cutler as well as the team’s most prominent free-agent-to-be wide receiver Alshon Jeffery.
The delay before the media session also gives Pace and Fox a little time to brush up on some key talking points because they’re not going to walk into this without a clear message that has been carefully constructed to set the tone for the offseason ahead. They’re going to have a script and as best they can, they’re going to stick to it.
There’s no question they will talk about the significant playing time the rookie class got this season, experience that hopefully is a benefit as soon as next year. They might throw some stats out to back that up. Certainly they will talk about widespread injuries that affected the team with 19 players landing on injured reserve. Don’t forget there were a good handful of players that missed time without going on IR. Cornerbacks Bryce Callahan (five games) and Deiondre’ Hall (eight), outside linebackers Leonard Floyd (four) and Pernell McPhee (seven), running back Jeremy Langford (four) and left guard Josh Sitton (three) all missed chunks of time without being shut down.
I’d expect Pace and Fox to talk about a plan already in place to field a healthier 53-man squad in 2017. Fox already revealed some of that plan last week on the team-run coach’s show on WBBM-AM 780.
“Some of it a lot of times is bad luck but you just can’t go with that,” Fox said. “You have to look at approaches. I think with the new CBA (collective bargaining agreement), I think you need to adjust things because the offseason (program) is nine weeks. They’re going to get 105 days off after the Minnesota game. I don’t think you can go sit on the couch for 105 days. When we come back we’re going to have a conditioning test before we even start the offseason. Same thing will happen after that nine-week offseason (program) when we have to give them a six-week break before we even report to camp. Again, putting the pressure on them to stay in shape and report to camp with a conditioning test.
“Those are all new things to make sure players understand you can’t get in shape to be a world-class athlete in nine weeks.”
I don’t know that the Bears had a bunch of sloppy players that were out of shape when training camp kicked off this past summer. They talked about nose tackle Eddie Goldman being in better condition and he was just that. It’s unfortunate a high ankle sprain cost him nearly three-quarters of the season. Goldman played in six games and made five starts but as defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said this past week, he barely played in a couple of those games. That was a major blow for the front seven, arguably the biggest.
Conditioning tests are not uncommon in the NFL during the offseason or at the start of training camp. You will recall former defensive tackle Marcus Harrison showed up out of shape to training camp in 2011, after the lockout ended, and took a while to pass his test to get cleared to practice. Fox can’t exactly call the CBA “new” either. The NFL and NFLPA are six years into the current 10-year agreement and the other 31 teams are working with the same workplace time constraints.
Soft-tissue injuries were not a major factor for the Bears this season either. Did they have some? Sure. Good luck finding a franchise immune to them. High ankle sprains were a problem and there were broken bones, more broken bones than you would ever want to see along with some knee injuries (McPhee, Kyle Fuller, Lamarr Houston, Danny Trevathan and Hroniss Grasu).
Conditioning tests seem like a good idea but that’s just getting started. Yes, Fox is right when he says bad luck plays a part in it. Sometimes, injuries can be cyclical in the NFL. One year you get hit pretty hard. The next year your training room doesn’t look like a MASH unit.
Pace and Fox have expressed a high degree of faith in the strength and conditioning staff led by Jason George and the athletic training staff led by Nate Breske. Pace started a sports science program in the building. I’d be a little surprised if there are changes in these areas but you never know. But it would not be surprising if they change their approach in these areas. In fact, you’d think they’re going to mix a variety of things up, right?
Let’s see if Pace and Fox share a few more details when it comes to their thoughts on reducing injuries in the year to come. It’s early and this is likely something they will spend some time on in the coming weeks so maybe all of the answers aren’t there yet, but my bet is this is a major talking point for them.
2. In between this game and the loss last Sunday to the Redskins at Soldier Field when coach John Fox said he believes the Bears are “closer” than a lot of folks think they are, there was plenty of reaction. Most of it was negative and I think that’s understandable given the circumstances of this season and the team’s position in the basement of the NFC North for the third consecutive season. The Bears haven’t finished in last place three consecutive years since doing it four straight seasons from 1997 to 2000 when they were part of the five-team NFC Central. Maybe you recall the Bears went from those four straight last-place finishes to a division crown in 2001 with a 13-3 record. Unfortunately, they couldn’t sustain success with that team as it struggled mightily from 2002 through 2004.
Just like Fox shared one nugget on the coach’s show on WBBM-AM 780 about instituting conditioning tests in 2017, he expanded a little more on this topic during the radio segment with play-by-play voice Jeff Joniak. Fox said there are “enough holes we can fill in one more offseason.” He added that he sees the roster needing eight to 10 guys, “we’re that close. I finally think we can finally make a push.”
I wouldn’t disagree that the Bears are eight to 10 guys away. Heck, any football team is going to look significantly different when you talk about finding that many key contributors for a roster. But if that’s what Fox believes and general manager Ryan Pace is of the same mind-set, I’d imagine that foretells a busy period in free agency for the club.
You want your biggest additions to come via the draft and the Bears own the No. overall 3 pick but what’s a realistic number of key contributors from a rookie draft class? Pace’s 2016 class has been praised and there are probably three key contributors as I see it – outside linebacker Leonard Floyd, center Cody Whitehair and running back Jordan Howard. Linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski looks like he has real upside after he was pressed into action by Danny Trevathan’s knee injury and Jerrell Freeman’s suspension but I don’t know he quite reached the level of “key contributor.” The Bears haven’t gotten what they were hoping for from defensive end Jonathan Bullard, the third-round pick. That doesn’t mean he can’t flourish in Year 2. In fact, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio had some positive things to say about him this past week but he showed he needs considerable work and a big offseason to reach that level in 2017.
So, let’s say the team can get three of four key contributors from the 2017 draft class. Their hope has to be that more members of the 2016 draft class emerge. Bullard and cornerback Deiondre’ Hall would be a great place to start. That leaves some heavy lifting to do in free agency, where the Bears (like most teams) have had hits and misses. I’ve often said when you work to build a foundation for your organization through free agency, it’s like building a house on sand. Your structure isn’t going to be very sound. To that end, I think Pace took a little different approach this past year in free agency when he targeted guys that were coming out of their rookie contracts. Those are safer buys, in my opinion, than bringing in clearly descending players like safety Antrel Rolle, one of the free-agent flops from 2015.
The Bears are going to be flush with salary cap room and if the budget is ample, they will be able to add plenty of players via free agency. It’s a good way to plug a hole here and there and certainly the Bears have some holes (think the secondary for starters). Free agency and the draft work like a puzzle and if you plug the right pieces in, you can help the organization. But be careful thinking free agency is the ticket to the Bears turning it around. It’s not a path for sustained, long-term success and their record over the last decade is proof because they’ve routinely been busy in free agency.
3. With the third pick in the 2017 NFL draft, the Chicago Bears select …
With 116 days to go until the first round of the draft on April 27, it’s premature to project who the Bears are going to take. I reached out to an NFC college scouting director and asked him what five names would be to focus in on for the No. 3 pick?
“That list has got to be QB heavy,” he wrote in a text. “So (DeShone) Kizer and (Mitch) Trubisky. But those top two teams could go QB which could push (Texas A&M defensive end Myles) Garrett to the Bears. Garrett and (Leonard) Floyd would be unstoppable. Thrown in (Alabama linebacker) Reuben Foster, maybe (LSU safety) Jamal Adams because safety always seems to be a concern there. Leonard Fournette is elite but at No. 3 after drafting Jordan Howard seems a stretch. Dalvin Cook is good but Fournette is such a rare combo of elite power and speed. He can beat you so many ways. He can run over or around you.”
Then, I called a scout for an AFC club and tossed the same question at him. What five names would make a good but very preliminary watch list for the Bears at No. 3 overall?
“I would spend every single second, every time I had available with the quarterbacks and with their coaching staffs because I would need to know which quarterback has it,” he said. “I would 30 visit them, I would work them out and I would spend every second I could getting to know them.
“They’re not getting Myles Garrett because he’s going to go in the top two. They have to go after a quarterback. Think about it. As much as Trubisky has all the tools, it might be Deshaun Watson. He’s an athlete and at least he can protect himself from not getting killed there. They have to find a No. 1 receiver but they also have to find what? Another pass rusher, a cornerback. Can you name me five positions they’re not sitting there saying, ‘Wow, I need somebody.’ They’re not going to take a running back but at No. 3 they’re not going to take a pick that isn’t sexy. They need a sexy pick. They need the quarterback and there is a good group of cornerbacks. They can get a really good corner in Round 2 and there aren’t quarterbacks after those two (Trubisky and Watson).
“Jonathan Allen, the defensive lineman from Alabama, isn’t really truly an edge guy for the Bears. Is he J.J. Watt? No, he’s not. Is he going to be an edge rusher in a 3-4? No, he’s not. He’s really a good 3-4 defensive end. They’d be thrilled to have him but I don’t think he’s No. 3. I think they need a cornerback but I think they draft the quarterback first and in the second round I think they are still going to get a quality cornerback.
“If I was the general manager and I knew that my ass was on the line next year with the head coach, what do we truly need? Jay Cutler hasn’t worked. Let’s get rid of him. Matt Barkley is a good little backup. They need a good quarterback. They’re not going to wait until the third round to take one. They can’t.
“The LSU safety Jamal Adams? He’s a good player. But how much of an impact can he be? He’s a safety. How many Troy Polamalus do you know? This kid is a really good player. But I think there will be two really quality corners left for the Bears at the top of the second round.
“The first guy has gotta be a sexy pick. It’s gotta be a pass rusher. It’s gotta be a big-time corner but I don’t think there is a big-time corner that’s going No. 3. There’s probably not a pass rusher that is going No. 3. Tim Williams, the kid from Alabama, he’s got a lot of baggage. He’s gonna tumble a little bit.
“The other thing they can do if they take a quarterback early, maybe they can buy a little more time with the understanding he’s going to struggle a little at first like rookie quarterbacks tend to do. They’ve got to take a quarterback. You said you were looking for five names. Five names really isn’t what it’s about.”
4. The Bears will likely find out in the next week or so if they have a chance to coach one of the teams in the Senior Bowl later this month in Mobile, Ala. The Browns, who will own the No. 1 overall pick, will almost certainly be offered one of the slots. The 49ers, who pick No. 2, will not be in play if they blow up their power structure and fire the general manager and head coach, as has been speculated. That would make the Bears the logical next pick but nothing is decided at this point. The team could turn down the chance.
“Well, I’ve never done it in 27 years,” coach John Fox said when I asked if he’d considered the possibility. “I really can’t comment other than you get a chance to watch guys and work with the guys almost like you have them in your training camp. So, I see the benefits but I really can’t speak too much to that because I haven’t done it before.”
It’s hardly a foolproof draft aid though. The Jaguars staff coached at the Senior Bowl in 2014 when it had Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo on its roster. Jacksonville turned around and used the No. 3 pick in the draft that year on Blake Bortles, one of the reasons that coaching staff has been fired. So stay tuned on this situation. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like there will be a Carr on either Senior Bowl roster this year.
5. Any other year and Jordan Howard’s 1,313-yard rookie season probably isn’t checking in at No. 5 in the season-ending 10 Thoughts but, well, it’s been that kind of year. Howard’s 135-yard effort vaulted him to No. 2 in the league for the season. While Howard has no shot at NFL offensive rookie of the year honors with the Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott having huge seasons, Howard would be a good bet most other seasons.
Howard finished averaging 5.2 yards per game, the best by a primary Bears’ running back since Walter Payton averaged 5.5 in his 1,852-yard season of 1977. That’s what was really impressive. For some perspective on Howard, I turned to tight end Logan Paulsen, a seven-year veteran who has made a living in the NFL primarily blocking for running backs. I thought he had some really interesting stuff to say that’s worth taking a look at. My question was simple: Does Howard remind him of any other backs?
“Not particularly,” Paulsen said. “He’s got a very unique running style. He’s got amazing vision and he’s kind of got a sense how the run should hit. It’s very unique, very special. He’s got great acceleration. Not super top end (speed) but his zero to 10 is good and that helps him hit the hole real hard. I’m trying to think if there is anyone that comes to mind.
“I would compare him to Alfred (Morris), but I think Jordan’s vision is way better. They run hard. They kind of run physically. But he sees the cut way better, understands the scheme way better. I’m trying to think of big backs but he’s got a little more (stuff) to him than like Eddie George, for example. He’s a unique fella.
“I got here late (signed Sept. 4) so I saw him and I’m like, ‘Oh, he’s a fifth-round draft pick.’ His demeanor is so quiet. He is not very boisterous. And seemingly he’s just average in all areas but then once he gets the ball in his hands and he’s behind the line, the cuts that he sees are next level. One that comes to mind for me is at Indianapolis. I got short-necked on the edge, you know, and the lane was collapsing. Most backs, they see that, and they kind of abort the front-side read and they try to just cram it backside. He stuck it front side, he crammed it between me and the tackle and I swear to god the thing was about this big (holds up hands about 18 inches apart) and he got a 5-yard gain. There is a maturity there and an understanding to what we’re trying to do in the run game that very few backs have. It takes a special guy. Obviously, he had the big run that game (57 yards). It was blocked really well. To me, it’s that run I described to you, that’s what makes Jordan special.”
6. Congratulations to former Bears linebacker Tim Shaw, whose book “Blitz Your Life: Stories from an NFL and ALS Warrior” is being released Tuesday. The book isn’t about Shaw’s life story going from setting a single-season prep rushing record in Michigan to Penn State and then to the NFL as one of the best special teams players in the league. He was diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in April 2014 and he’s seeking to share some life lessons he’s picked up as he tackles the debilitating disease at full speed. He’s traveling to Israel this coming Sunday to undergo stem-cell treatment and is planning to visit South Africa in March to check off a bucket list item by visiting Victoria Falls. Shaw was at Soldier Field when the Bears hosted the Titans in November and was made a consultant for lack of a better term by Tennessee coach Mike Mularkey this season. Shaw would complete scouting reports for the special teams unit and meet with the players on a regular basis.
“I always thought I would write a book,” Shaw said. “I’ve always liked to write. But really I was waiting for that superstar moment or that championship win or that MVP situation, right? I thought, ‘Man, I better be ready to have a book when that moment comes.’ Really, I found myself in a situation where what I am going through is bigger than anything I ever could have imagined and no, it’s not what I wanted, but it is an opportunity to impact lives. So for me that was the motivation, to reach as many people as I can with the message.
“The book is about knowing who you are, embracing who you are and with that pursuing a life of purpose, becoming your best self and living a life that means something. That means eliminating the things that aren’t important and emphasizing and focusing on the things that are the upmost importance.”
Shaw can still walk and while his speech his slowed, he’s easy to understand. Those are obviously huge changes in his life and factors that are forcing him to adjust as he battles the disease. But the physical challenges are not the first things that he focuses on.
“It’s been a very obvious change in me,” he said. “The most obvious change I’ve seen is my lack of time for things that are insignificant. Anything from complaining about something minute or even just wasting time. I just don’t have any tolerance for it, the things that are just not of significance. I have made a big shift of everything I do, I want to matter. I want it to be something. I want it to be important. Also, embracing who I am. I have had to ask myself some really tough questions about who I am? What I am doing and why? It’s forced me to say alright, ‘Take away football. Take away money. Take away your body. Take away your voice. Who are you?’ It is a really difficult question to ask yourself and I think when you do that, you have the freedom to be yourself and the freedom to improve and the freedom to be real with people. Those are huge, huge things that have changed in my life.”
Shaw was busy in 2016, traveling to Australia, Hong Kong, Bali and Mexico, among other places.
“I have to stay on the move,” he said. “I’m doing everything I can. I am doing everything I want to do and I just have a blast. The message from me is find a way. If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. We love excuses and sometimes excuses are real. Shoot, if it is important enough to you, you will find a way. And maybe even more that, it’s about enjoying life and enjoying it with other people. That is what is at the center of what I am doing.”
The chance to reunite with the Titans, who released Shaw in 2013 as the disease took hold of his body before he knew what was going on was huge for him. Shaw has never shown anger toward the game while some wonder if there are connections between football and ALS.
“It’s been such an enjoyable season for me,” he said. “I feel like I have been reunited with the game I lost. To be embraced by the Titans organization, to be involved and to be involved in scouting and to be able to talk to the guys and help motivate a little bit, I have just enjoyed it so much just being around the guys.”
Shaw is hoping to make a bookstore appearance in the Chicago area in the near future. I’ll post details on Twitter when they become available. I’m looking forward to receiving the copy I purchased this week. You can order his book via Amazon here.
7. If that was Alshon Jeffery’s final game in a Bears uniform after five seasons, he went out quietly with one catch for 10 yards and only three total targets.
Jeffery will be a free agent following the season and there’s no way the Bears can place the franchise tag on him for a second time at $17.5 million. Previously, I was of the feeling that the Bears could not afford to let Jeffery walk out the front door of Halas Hall. They’re short on talent but Jeffery went from missing seven games because of injuries in 2015 to coming back and having a 52-catch season with 821 yards and two touchdowns. How do you justify doubling down on Jeffery after he was tagged for $14.599 million this year? Sure, the Bears will get a salary-cap credit for the suspension money Jeffery forfeited this season. That means a credit of about $3.43 million. In that light, you could say a second tag of Jeffery will only cost about $14.07 million, but it’s hard to justify he is worth that. The Bears do not have a No. 1 if Jeffery departs and he could very well get big money on the open market because the class of wide receivers is awful thin. But the last two seasons were contract years for Jeffery and if that’s what you are going to get from him in a contract year, what are you going to get from him after he’s been paid?
“I just play football,” Jeffery said when asked if he considered it could be his final game in a Bears uniform. “I didn’t think about that. Right now, I’m a Chicago Bear. It’s business at the end of the day.”
In that business, I asked him if his market value has gone up or down from this point last year?
“That’s for you guys to decide,” Jeffery said. “I know what type of player I am. That’s for you guys to decide. That’s for my agent or you guys to decide.”
Maybe I am wrong but the sense I get is the Bears are not going to want to invest in Jeffery for the long haul. Yes, that makes wide receiver a need, a real need for 2017.
8. The Bears’ future schedule looked pretty good at this time last season when you scanned it and saw the AFC South and NFC East. They had five games against teams that hired new head coaches. But it didn’t materialize. Looking ahead to the 2017 schedule, they have only four opponents that will be in the playoffs: Green Bay and Detroit (twice each), Atlanta and Pittsburgh. The only opponent next season that will be hiring a new coach at this point is the 49ers, who will play at Soldier Field for the third consecutive season with their third coach after facing Chip Kelly this season and Jim Tomsula the year before. It’s possible the Saints have a coaching change if New Orleans agrees to let Sean Payton out of his contract and then explores compensation in a potential trade with the Rams. If that happens, it will probably go down by Tuesday.
2017 home games: Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota, Atlanta, Carolina, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco
2017 road games: Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Philadelphia
9. If this is the end of the road for running back Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, it’s been terrific being able to watch him for so long compete against the Bears. Peterson had knee surgery in September but has been plagued by a groin injury since returning. I would imagine the 31-year-old plays somewhere next season if the Vikings release him and the only he seems likely to return is on a restructured contract. Peterson is due a $6 million roster bonus on March 11 and has a base salary of $11.75 million. There’s no way the Vikings are going to pay him $17.75 million in 2017.
Peterson has rushed for more yards against the Packers (1,.779) than any other team. But he averaged 111.6 against the Bears in 14 games, a tick above the 104.6 against Green Bay and 106.4 against Detroit. Peterson has more rushing touchdowns against the Bears (14) than any other team. Few will forget the game during his rookie season when he carried 20 times for 224 yards and three touchdowns at Soldier Field on Oct. 14, 2007. Hopefully he’s much healthier next season wherever he plays.
10. By my count the Bears had a total of 30 players spend time on the practice squad this season. That is the same number they had a year ago. Of the 30 this season, 14 appeared on the 53-man roster for at least week. That also mirrors what happened on the roster last season when 13 players spent time on the practice squad and the 53-man roster. The list of players to be on the practice squad and 53-man roster this season: CB De’Vante Bausby, TE Ben Braunecker, WR Daniel Braverman, LB John Timu, QB Matt Barkley, DB Demontre Hurst, OL Cornelius Edison, RB Raheem Mostert, DE Jimmy Staten, FB Paul Lasike, LB Jonathan Anderson, CB Jacoby Glenn, RB Bralon Addison and LB Josh Shirley, who was promoted on Saturday.
10a. The Bears finished the season with 11 takeaways, setting a new low for the franchise. Actually, they obliterated the previous mark of 17, which was set last season. They finished with eight interceptions as Cre’Von LeBlanc picked off Sam Bradford in the end zone. As bad as the Bears were on defense in 2014 (remember the 50-spots they allowed), that team had 24 takeaways. The last time the Bears had less was 2003 when there were 20. The Bears also had 20 in 2000 and 1982 (when there was a nine-game season because of the strike). The team’s media guide only goes back to 1965 for such statistics but the Bears always had at least 27 or more takeaways from 1965 through 1977 when there was a 14-game regular season. That was a different era of football and interceptions were far more common. This season, opposing quarterbacks threw 530 passes and there were only eight interceptions. That’s nuts and worse than last season when there were eight picks on 512 pass attempts by opponents.
10b. The Bears finished 15th on defense in the NFL, allowing 346.8 yards per game after slumping badly in the final three weeks. They ranked 24th in scoring allowing 24.9 points per game. The Bears were tied for last in the NFL with the Jets with a minus-20 turnover differential.
10c. Didn’t talk a whole lot about cornerback Sherrick McManis this season but he was a smart signing on a two-year contract back in March and he was really the leader of that unit. The Bears are not where they want to be on special teams but McManis did a nice job.
10d. U.S. Bank Stadium was nothing short of terrific and a huge upgrade over the Metrodome. It’s easily one of the nicest new stadiums in the league and worth checking out if you’re among the many fans that travel to see road games. I see you by the dozens and dozens each time the Bears travel.
10e. Hope everyone had a terrific holiday weekend. Best of luck on a safe and prosperous New Year and thanks for following along with 10 Thoughts this season.
