Analytics guy not too high on Bears this year

We have read/heard a lot of predictions from the experts regarding how the team will do this year.  It's all over the board.  It is all over the board because there are a LOT of unknowns in the equation at this point.  We don't know how the team will actually perform in "real" games this year.  Personally I keep coming back to the fact that:

1.  Rookie QBs usually do have a steep learning curve that first season.  CJ was an aberration.  This isn't Mahomes & the Chiefs or even Houston and CJ.  Probably not happening.
2.  We don't know how good or bad the D and Olines will be this year.  Preseason isn't real football.  Let's see how these units actually perform when the bullets start flying.  And a few injuries can really hurt these units (think someone like Sweat or Wright or Brax going on IR).  I guarantee you some key players WILL be injured this year and yes, that will hurt the team.
3.  The Division is going to be brutal competition this year.  
4.  Key injuries can change everything (not just the linemen but now I'm talking about the other units on the team).
5.  The Bears are not the only team that improved this off-season.  That schedule won't be as easy as some want to make it sound.
6.  Our coaching staff still needs to prove itself as being good.  Especially Eberflus.  I like him and want him to succeed... but it's still a hope-thing at this point.  We need to see it happen now in the real football games.

My only point is that nobody knows for sure how this season will play out.  I'm as optimistic as anyone.  But I also understand this could easily be an 8 win team.  If anyone does not believe that is possible, hey, read those 6 points above, again.  Anything is possible this year (more so than most years in the past... lots of moving parts here).  

If this could “easily” be an 8-win season, I could “easily” lose my $100 bet on over 8.5.  If Bears win 8 games (1 more than last year), a lot of things would have to play out badly on most of those things he’s talking about. You have to be a cynical glass half-empty person like this guy to assign high probability to that.

Valid points but sheesh did you have to say what you did in #2. Knock on some wood!

I think the bottom line is what David said. No one knows. We can start to get a feel for how things will shake out after a few games.