That's a good point. My hope is that the Bears can keep a healthy inflow of draft talent to backfill most of the guys we lose over the years. It will never be 100%, but at least hit a high percentage in drafting talented guys on rookie deals. The more guys you have in the pipeline to replace older guys the better you manage the money while keeping the talent level high. One thing that I notice is that a significant percentage of these high-priced veterans are guys not drafted in the first round. So many of them are mid to late round picks... or like T. J. Edwards, were never drafted at all. Keenan Allen was a 3rd round pick. My point is that the team talent is high right now. Keep a healthy inflow of draft talent so you don't have to buy as many FA's at full-retail prices - and spend that FA money to re-sign your own talent that you drafted (like we did with JJ... who by the way was a 2nd round guy). If Poles can do this, then we will be able to sustain success here for many years to come, now that we have our QB1 in place.
Exactly. That's why good drafting in the later rounds, and most importantly - not trading away draft picks - is so important. Pipeline Lives Matter!
+1 The key is to have an elite QB1. If you do have that guy, then the draft becomes so much easier. Not easy. But easier. For years now I've made it a habit of looking up "where" these high-priced free agents, (who are demanding top dollar FA salaries), where they were originally drafted. Holy cow it is sobering to see so many mid to late round dudes... and even undrafted guys, who now cost a fortune to sign at full-retail prices. I always think to myself that "why can't we draft these guys here on the Bears?" I believe we can. And my hope is that Poles (with the infrastructure he has in place now) can do just that. Sure, fill some holes with FA's, but don't live-and-die by having to buy full-retail guys in FA.
Post by weneedmorelinemen on May 21, 2024 12:10:45 GMT -6
There are five players left on the Bears from Ryan Pace's draft picks.
Borom Herbert Kmet Jenkins Jaylon Johnson
Borom's probably a goner in training camp. The last standing four are the only players still worth a damn from Pace.
He was the general manager of the Bears for 7 seasons. The Bears have only played 2 seasons of football since he was here. It is a testament to his crappy player evaluation that he has that little of a handprint on this team.
It is not just age that creates urgency. It is also money. Moore, Sweat, Johnson, Edmonds, Edwards, Allen are not on rookie contracts. They won’t be here after 2025-26. Poles won’t extend these guys. If this team isn’t Super Bowl ready by then, we’ve got a problem.
That's a good point. My hope is that the Bears can keep a healthy inflow of draft talent to backfill most of the guys we lose over the years. It will never be 100%, but at least hit a high percentage in drafting talented guys on rookie deals. The more guys you have in the pipeline to replace older guys the better you manage the money while keeping the talent level high. One thing that I notice is that a significant percentage of these high-priced veterans are guys not drafted in the first round. So many of them are mid to late round picks... or like T. J. Edwards, were never drafted at all. Keenan Allen was a 3rd round pick. My point is that the team talent is high right now. Keep a healthy inflow of draft talent so you don't have to buy as many FA's at full-retail prices - and spend that FA money to re-sign your own talent that you drafted (like we did with JJ... who by the way was a 2nd round guy). If Poles can do this, then we will be able to sustain success here for many years to come, now that we have our QB1 in place.
Other than Brax, Poles hasn’t shown he can get much out of the draft past the second round. Those guys I mentioned are Super Bowl ready now. They can’t be replaced with draftees as a group. Also, once you move beyond the 2025-26 window, you are approaching 2028 where Williams and Odunze will devour cap space with their second contracts. Finally, I don’t think Warren is in the mood to give Poles/Flus 7-8 years. At least I hope not.
That's a good point. My hope is that the Bears can keep a healthy inflow of draft talent to backfill most of the guys we lose over the years. It will never be 100%, but at least hit a high percentage in drafting talented guys on rookie deals. The more guys you have in the pipeline to replace older guys the better you manage the money while keeping the talent level high. One thing that I notice is that a significant percentage of these high-priced veterans are guys not drafted in the first round. So many of them are mid to late round picks... or like T. J. Edwards, were never drafted at all. Keenan Allen was a 3rd round pick. My point is that the team talent is high right now. Keep a healthy inflow of draft talent so you don't have to buy as many FA's at full-retail prices - and spend that FA money to re-sign your own talent that you drafted (like we did with JJ... who by the way was a 2nd round guy). If Poles can do this, then we will be able to sustain success here for many years to come, now that we have our QB1 in place.
Other than Brax, Poles hasn’t shown he can get much out of the draft past the second round. Those guys I mentioned are Super Bowl ready now. They can’t be replaced with draftees as a group. Also, once you move beyond the 2025-26 window, you are approaching 2028 where Williams and Odunze will devour cap space with their second contracts. Finally, I don’t think Warren is in the mood to give Poles/Flus 7-8 years. At least I hope not.
I keep thinking we need to look at this as an ongoing process. If I understand Poles correctly (and I think I do) he is looking to build a team that can sustain winning beyond just a year or two peak (what you call Super Bowl ready). To do that, a team ideally needs an inflow (constant fresh inflow) of quality draft talent and (also the ideal) have an elite QB1. Yes, there are other ways to do this, but the ideal is to have that model in place. Poles first draft was not a great one by any means. But he had basically just arrived here litterally weeks prior to the draft. I give him a pass on that one. Last year, his 2nd draft, looks pretty good to me... he set up this year's draft pretty well with the trade down that got us D.J. Moore, Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen, Ryan Bates, Kiran Amagadjie, Booker Austin, and others... but obviously the rookies there are rookies - so not much to go on so far. The vets we got for those draft picks are solid guys. My main point is that in 2025 we can upgrade the final pieces needed, and then have that steady inflow of draft talent keep this thing going strong - and financially viable. For more than just a couple of peak years. Sustainable success spanning a number of years should be the goal. Poles has skillfully orchestrated building the best Bears roster we have seen here in a long time. It shows the promise of being the best Bears roster I have seen in my lifetime. We'll see, right?
Other than Brax, Poles hasn’t shown he can get much out of the draft past the second round. Those guys I mentioned are Super Bowl ready now. They can’t be replaced with draftees as a group. Also, once you move beyond the 2025-26 window, you are approaching 2028 where Williams and Odunze will devour cap space with their second contracts. Finally, I don’t think Warren is in the mood to give Poles/Flus 7-8 years. At least I hope not.
I keep thinking we need to look at this as an ongoing process. If I understand Poles correctly (and I think I do) he is looking to build a team that can sustain winning beyond just a year or two peak (what you call Super Bowl ready). To do that, a team ideally needs an inflow (constant fresh inflow) of quality draft talent and (also the ideal) have an elite QB1. Yes, there are other ways to do this, but the ideal is to have that model in place. Poles first draft was not a great one by any means. But he had basically just arrived here litterally weeks prior to the draft. I give him a pass on that one. Last year, his 2nd draft, looks pretty good to me... he set up this year's draft pretty well with the trade down that got us D.J. Moore, Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen, Ryan Bates, Kiran Amagadjie, Booker Austin, and others... but obviously the rookies there are rookies - so not much to go on so far. The vets we got for those draft picks are solid guys. My main point is that in 2025 we can upgrade the final pieces needed, and then have that steady inflow of draft talent keep this thing going strong - and financially viable. For more than just a couple of peak years. Sustainable success spanning a number of years should be the goal. Poles has skillfully orchestrated building the best Bears roster we have seen here in a long time. It shows the promise of being the best Bears roster I have seen in my lifetime. We'll see, right?
I don’t see Poles as a great drafter. However, due mostly to luck and fleecing the stupid Panthers owner, I see a great opportunity to be Super Bowl ready in this 2025-26 time-frame. The Bears are in win-now mode. If they don’t, the arrow is going to be pointing down once Moore, Sweat, Johnson, Edwards, Edmunds, Allen are gone. It’s simply not realistic to assume these guys are all replaceable with rookies. The team would be back into “rebuild” territory with new management.
I keep thinking we need to look at this as an ongoing process. If I understand Poles correctly (and I think I do) he is looking to build a team that can sustain winning beyond just a year or two peak (what you call Super Bowl ready). To do that, a team ideally needs an inflow (constant fresh inflow) of quality draft talent and (also the ideal) have an elite QB1. Yes, there are other ways to do this, but the ideal is to have that model in place. Poles first draft was not a great one by any means. But he had basically just arrived here litterally weeks prior to the draft. I give him a pass on that one. Last year, his 2nd draft, looks pretty good to me... he set up this year's draft pretty well with the trade down that got us D.J. Moore, Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen, Ryan Bates, Kiran Amagadjie, Booker Austin, and others... but obviously the rookies there are rookies - so not much to go on so far. The vets we got for those draft picks are solid guys. My main point is that in 2025 we can upgrade the final pieces needed, and then have that steady inflow of draft talent keep this thing going strong - and financially viable. For more than just a couple of peak years. Sustainable success spanning a number of years should be the goal. Poles has skillfully orchestrated building the best Bears roster we have seen here in a long time. It shows the promise of being the best Bears roster I have seen in my lifetime. We'll see, right?
I don’t see Poles as a great drafter. However, due mostly to luck and fleecing the stupid Panthers owner, I see a great opportunity to be Super Bowl ready in this 2025-26 time-frame. The Bears are in win-now mode. If they don’t, the arrow is going to be pointing down once Moore, Sweat, Johnson, Edwards, Edmunds, Allen are gone. It’s simply not realistic to assume these guys are all replaceable with rookies. The team would be back into “rebuild” territory with new management.
It's too early to know if Poles can draft well enough for this model to work over the long haul. Only time will tell if he can or not. But if he can draft well, and supplement that, as needed with FA's (hopefully we re-sign our own players who merit it too) - then we should never have to rebuild. Ever. But that means you have ascending youngsters in the pipeline to replace those guys you choose to not keep. No, it's never going to be perfect. Yes, you will always need some level of FA signings. But I do believe it is in the realm of possibility - if - you have the GM in place who can draft well. Great GM's make their own luck. They position the team so that luck can happen. Bad GMs just crap the bed and get fired.
Post by bearsinhouston on May 21, 2024 20:44:49 GMT -6
It's about getting better every year. IMO, we did that this year. If we can do it again next year and the year after.... we WILL hit our goal. But it's not easy. Getting better long term has to take into account good players aging out, getting them replaced..... If you have a top tier QB, working around his salary. So it is really hard. Teams have done it, but only the best teams. That is really what separates the perpetual winners from everyone else. I do not want to belittle what Poles has done in any way, as I consider it borderline miraculous, but compared to trying to keep this team improving long term year after year.... Very hard, unless he plans on nuking it every 4 or 5 years and that's not really feasable
It's about getting better every year. IMO, we did that this year. If we can do it again next year and the year after.... we WILL hit our goal. But it's not easy. Getting better long term has to take into account good players aging out, getting them replaced..... If you have a top tier QB, working around his salary. So it is really hard. Teams have done it, but only the best teams. That is really what separates the perpetual winners from everyone else. I do not want to belittle what Poles has done in any way, as I consider it borderline miraculous, but compared to trying to keep this team improving long term year after year.... Very hard, unless he plans on nuking it every 4 or 5 years and that's not really feasable
He will have to be a generational GM
But yeah, getting serious, it's going to take a very special GM to sustain something like this. It's one thing to have the plan. It's another thing to actually execute it at a high level. I think we just need to wait and see if he can, or not. The huge piece is the QB1. If he got that right, then it does make the rest of this possible. If you don't have the QB, then it's not happening. We just gotta hope Caleb is the real deal. There is still a lot that has to go right, in addition to the QB, but that is (by far) the hardest part.
