2024 QB Class QBase Evaluation Model (interesting read)

davidl
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2024 QB Class QBase Evaluation Model (interesting read) Apr 13, 2024 9:36:40 GMT -6

Post by davidl on Apr 13, 2024 9:36:40 GMT -6

Apr 12, 2024 17:22:29 GMT -6 JABF said:

Apr 12, 2024 17:09:11 GMT -6 bearsinhouston said:

Looks like its behind a paywall.

Also looks incomplete - no Potential to be generational

Here is what is says about Caleb:

Bust 28.9%
Adequate Starter 25.8%
Upper Tier 24.1%
Elite 21.2% (Hall of Fame level guy)

They have J.Daniels as a 37.7% bust risk.
J.J. McCarthy as a 45.9% bust risk.
They have Maye as a 49.2% bust risk.
Bo Nix as a 54.1% bust risk.
Michael Penix Jr. as a 68.2% bust risk.
Spencer Rattler as a 90.5% bust risk.

So we have only 45% chance of getting something better than “adequate”? That seems low. I’d go with motm’s data — 70% for Williams. If he’s just “adequate”, Poles drafted the wrong guy. Odds are at least one of these guys will be good. Penix at 68% bust seems a little high. I rate Nix as high as MCCarthy, if not higher, although JJ will go #4 in the draft.

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bearsinhouston
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2024 QB Class QBase Evaluation Model (interesting read) Apr 13, 2024 10:09:22 GMT -6 Whisky Beer Bob likes this

Post by bearsinhouston on Apr 13, 2024 10:09:22 GMT -6

Apr 13, 2024 9:36:40 GMT -6 davidl said:

Apr 12, 2024 17:22:29 GMT -6 JABF said:

Here is what is says about Caleb:

Bust 28.9%
Adequate Starter 25.8%
Upper Tier 24.1%
Elite 21.2% (Hall of Fame level guy)

They have J.Daniels as a 37.7% bust risk.
J.J. McCarthy as a 45.9% bust risk.
They have Maye as a 49.2% bust risk.
Bo Nix as a 54.1% bust risk.
Michael Penix Jr. as a 68.2% bust risk.
Spencer Rattler as a 90.5% bust risk.

So we have only 45% chance of getting something better than “adequate”? That seems low. I’d go with motm’s data — 70% for Williams. If he’s just “adequate”, Poles drafted the wrong guy. Odds are at least one of these guys will be good. Penix at 68% bust seems a little high. I rate Nix as high as MCCarthy, if not higher, although JJ will go #4 in the draft.

Pick your facts. LOL, isn't that what makes them opinions? None of these numbers are facts anyway. JAGs rating system they pulled out of their butt bone.

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davidl
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2024 QB Class QBase Evaluation Model (interesting read) Apr 13, 2024 10:27:48 GMT -6

Post by davidl on Apr 13, 2024 10:27:48 GMT -6

Apr 13, 2024 10:09:22 GMT -6 bearsinhouston said:

Apr 13, 2024 9:36:40 GMT -6 davidl said:

So we have only 45% chance of getting something better than “adequate”? That seems low. I’d go with motm’s data — 70% for Williams. If he’s just “adequate”, Poles drafted the wrong guy. Odds are at least one of these guys will be good. Penix at 68% bust seems a little high. I rate Nix as high as MCCarthy, if not higher, although JJ will go #4 in the draft.

Pick your facts. LOL, isn't that what makes them opinions? None of these numbers are facts anyway. JAGs rating system they pulled out of their butt bone.

Motm’s 70% number is not an opinion. It is a fact.

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bearsfaninaz
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2024 QB Class QBase Evaluation Model (interesting read) Apr 13, 2024 10:45:07 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by bearsfaninaz on Apr 13, 2024 10:45:07 GMT -6

Apr 12, 2024 20:59:01 GMT -6 billymurray said:

Apr 12, 2024 18:52:01 GMT -6 bearsinhouston said:

so 54.7% he is adequate or worse and 45.3% he is upper tier or above. Goes to show how big a crapshoot a new QB is

Yep. What a crap shoot it is picking a QB. Best one of late was the last guy drafted!
Here are the others.. (Is Trubisky hurting Maye lol)

Drake Maye
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) 49.2%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A) 25.6%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) 16.3%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 8.9%

Jayden Daniels
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) 37.7%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A) 27.2%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) 20.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 14.4%

JJ McCarthy
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) 45.9%
Adequate Starter(0-0.75 TDYAR/A)26.3%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) 17.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 10.1%

Bo Nix
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) 54.1%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A) 24.4%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) 14.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 6.9%

Michael Penix Jr
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) 68.2%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A) 19.4%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) 9%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 3.5%

Spencer Rattler
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A) 90.5%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A) 7.1%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A) 1.9%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A) 0.5%

I'd love to see the formula. 1 year wonder in Daniels, throwing to 2 1st round WRs, has a better chance being elite than a 3 year starter in a pro system who was coached by a winning NFL coach and NFL QB?

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2024 QB Class QBase Evaluation Model (interesting read)

Post by davidl on Apr 13, 2024 9:36:40 GMT -6

Post by bearsinhouston on Apr 13, 2024 10:09:22 GMT -6

Post by davidl on Apr 13, 2024 10:27:48 GMT -6

Post by bearsfaninaz on Apr 13, 2024 10:45:07 GMT -6