2024 QB Class QBase Evaluation Model (interesting read)

Here is what is says about Caleb:

Bust 28.9%
Adequate Starter 25.8%
Upper Tier 24.1%
Elite 21.2% (Hall of Fame level guy)

They have J.Daniels as a 37.7% bust risk.
J.J. McCarthy as a 45.9% bust risk.
They have Maye as a 49.2% bust risk.
Bo Nix as a 54.1% bust risk.
Michael Penix Jr. as a 68.2% bust risk.
Spencer Rattler as a 90.5% bust risk.

That's is so true.  Now, I don't know how accurate that model is, but the point is that there is no sure thing in the draft and never has been.   I do believe we have a legit shot at a great QB with him.  But it's a gamble.  Or, maybe a better description would be a calculated risk because there is some research and some supporting data behind the draft pick - but it's still a risk.  That's sports though.  This whole approach by Poles is different.  It feels different too.  Courtney Cronin, in that video describes it as "planning for more than one year"  and "it looks like they have a well thought out plan" - that's a quote too.  She talks about 2025 too.  At around the 30-minute mark she talks about the coaching change after the season ended was not the best move - that continuity and building on what has already been installed is something the Bears haven't done (like this) before.  It feels different (her words).  The cycling through coaches/GMs is not the way to create a successful situation.  They can't afford to be the "same old Bears" -"now they've made it through the big part of the storm" - "this iteration of the Bears feels different" and talks about the Caleb pick, new stadium coming, and basically talked the anti-meatball fan talk.  

I don't know if Caleb will pan out.  But I think this could be the beginning of something different than our failed past - Courtney said it looks like the Poles and Eberflus plan "looks like there are some legs to it" and it's beginning to look like it will come to fruition (her term).

Will this all work?  Don't know.  I like what I see so far though.  

His whole approach to the 

There are some legit ways around paywalls but I dont think they work inside a site (like Espn+ inside espn but I could be wrong).

12ft.io *some paywalls caught up to this

1ft.io

Spaywall

+1
Listening to the countless "experts" talk about the QB bust rate I come away with one common factor.  It matters greatly where these guys land when drafted.  Talent is one factor, but equally important is the environment that rookie QB is in (coaches and players).  If you don't have both factors you bust.  And this past week we've heard some talk about how it is nearly impossible to "fix" a QB who has been broken by the drafting team.  I know this seems incredibly basic, a "water is wet" statement, but so many Bears fans don't seem to grasp this.  They really fail to understand that the coaching and supporting talent matters... it is a critically make-or-break important factor.  And we've broken more than our share here in Chicago over the decades.  But fans write that off as "they drafted the wrong guy... so draft a new guy and count it all good."  It is delusional thinking... but it is what it is.  Meatball stuff.  JMO.