Post by bearsinhouston on Mar 13, 2024 21:28:39 GMT -6
So, trying to be perfectly objective about this, I think the way Poles is doing it is the right way. As a fan that wants to see the Bears ascend ahead of the other conference teams, it hurts to see us threading water and maybe in some areas even getting worse. (we lost a decent DT and not seeing even a decent play at a replacement, but it's early).
But as much as it pains me to see other teams getting some useful players signed, the amounts paid are not sustainable in terms of building a team that way. You run out of cap before you put together a whole team that way. The draft really is the way to do it and then fill with one or two expensive players to make that run. So I don't like to live through it, but I get it.
In building the team with the number of picks we have, possibly doing a QB restart and being behind two teams in the conference, I see a long process building just from the draft. I think we are behind the eight ball. If JF is THE GUY, we stand a chance with a trade down or two to be able to fill the team out. If we use the first pick on a new QB, it sets us back in a way nut moves us forward in the most important way. But with the length of time and the number of people we need, we are going to start to age out of inexpensive contracts and then always trying to fill out more and more as people age out.
If you can pick well, and have your QB set, it can be done. But us going to look at Bo Nix, signals to me that we are not going for Williams and instead might be trying to both get a new QB AND trade down for picks. I don't like that AT ALL. Get the QB that you need and then worry about the rest of the team. If they are going to try a value play on a new QB when you have the first pick, that is complete stupidity. In that case, stick with JF and trade down. I like JF but am I sure he is the solution? I said it before. No, I'm not. Nor am I sure the solution is Williams. I just know one thing. If you feel there is a much better QB than JF, USE THE DAMN FIRST PICK AND DON'T LET HIM GET AWAY. If not, roll with JF, but on either one, you better be right.
So, trying to be perfectly objective about this, I think the way Poles is doing it is the right way. As a fan that wants to see the Bears ascend ahead of the other conference teams, it hurts to see us threading water and maybe in some areas even getting worse. (we lost a decent DT and not seeing even a decent play at a replacement, but it's early).
But as much as it pains me to see other teams getting some useful players signed, the amounts paid are not sustainable in terms of building a team that way. You run out of cap before you put together a whole team that way. The draft really is the way to do it and then fill with one or two expensive players to make that run. So I don't like to live through it, but I get it.
In building the team with the number of picks we have, possibly doing a QB restart and being behind two teams in the conference, I see a long process building just from the draft. I think we are behind the eight ball. If JF is THE GUY, we stand a chance with a trade down or two to be able to fill the team out. If we use the first pick on a new QB, it sets us back in a way nut moves us forward in the most important way. But with the length of time and the number of people we need, we are going to start to age out of inexpensive contracts and then always trying to fill out more and more as people age out.
If you can pick well, and have your QB set, it can be done. But us going to look at Bo Nix, signals to me that we are not going for Williams and instead might be trying to both get a new QB AND trade down for picks. I don't like that AT ALL. Get the QB that you need and then worry about the rest of the team. If they are going to try a value play on a new QB when you have the first pick, that is complete stupidity. In that case, stick with JF and trade down. I like JF but am I sure he is the solution? I said it before. No, I'm not. Nor am I sure the solution is Williams. I just know one thing. If you feel there is a much better QB than JF, USE THE DAMN FIRST PICK AND DON'T LET HIM GET AWAY. If not, roll with JF, but on either one, you better be right.
As far as the money is concerned, $100 million is $100 million. It’s exactly $100 million whether it is paid to extend one of your own players (Johnson) or to somebody you got in free agency or in a trade (e.g., Moore and Sweat).
The best GMs acquire star players by all 3 means, and, regardless the mix, the idea is to acquire more than other teams.
If Poles grand plan is to acquire fewer studs than other GMs by free agency, then he has to acquire more than them via draft/trades. Total = X+Y+Z.
So, trying to be perfectly objective about this, I think the way Poles is doing it is the right way. As a fan that wants to see the Bears ascend ahead of the other conference teams, it hurts to see us threading water and maybe in some areas even getting worse. (we lost a decent DT and not seeing even a decent play at a replacement, but it's early).
But as much as it pains me to see other teams getting some useful players signed, the amounts paid are not sustainable in terms of building a team that way. You run out of cap before you put together a whole team that way. The draft really is the way to do it and then fill with one or two expensive players to make that run. So I don't like to live through it, but I get it.
In building the team with the number of picks we have, possibly doing a QB restart and being behind two teams in the conference, I see a long process building just from the draft. I think we are behind the eight ball. If JF is THE GUY, we stand a chance with a trade down or two to be able to fill the team out. If we use the first pick on a new QB, it sets us back in a way nut moves us forward in the most important way. But with the length of time and the number of people we need, we are going to start to age out of inexpensive contracts and then always trying to fill out more and more as people age out.
If you can pick well, and have your QB set, it can be done. But us going to look at Bo Nix, signals to me that we are not going for Williams and instead might be trying to both get a new QB AND trade down for picks. I don't like that AT ALL. Get the QB that you need and then worry about the rest of the team. If they are going to try a value play on a new QB when you have the first pick, that is complete stupidity. In that case, stick with JF and trade down. I like JF but am I sure he is the solution? I said it before. No, I'm not. Nor am I sure the solution is Williams. I just know one thing. If you feel there is a much better QB than JF, USE THE DAMN FIRST PICK AND DON'T LET HIM GET AWAY. If not, roll with JF, but on either one, you better be right.
As far as the money is concerned, $100 million is $100 million. It’s exactly $100 million whether it is paid to extend one of your own players (Johnson) or to somebody you got in free agency or in a trade (e.g., Moore and Sweat).
The best GMs acquire star players by all 3 means, and, regardless the mix, the idea is to acquire more than other teams.
If Poles grand plan is to acquire fewer studs than other GMs by free agency, then he has to acquire more than them via draft/trades. Total = X+Y+Z.
Exactly. And my point was that FA does not seem to be they way he is doing it (and I understand). And as I mentioned, with limited draft capital (unless he trades down), I do not see him doing it in any short term venue, which means that his lower priced contracts start to expire as the timeline gets extended, so that makes it a losing race with draft capital. He has made some trades but typically these are fewer and far between and will not fill the pipeline.
Post by bearsinhouston on Mar 13, 2024 22:23:52 GMT -6
I just read this article. Say 11 hours ago but reading it, it is prior to FA starting
A short out take
At this point, I would say fans are completely justified in being disappointed by the early returns of this Free Agency period. I didn’t have super high expectations, but this has come in lower than I had expected. It’s also becoming apparent— At least to me— That Poles is going to take a Chris Ballard-like approach. He’s going to set his price points and not budge. Most of the time, it will present as cheap, while other times, it’ll leave folks scratching their head on who the team decides to spend money on.
I expected a little more aggression based on their lack of draft capital after Round 1. That doesn’t appear to be a worry for Poles, which leads me to believe that this is just going to be his Free Agency approach. Not expecting top-of-the-market names is an adjustment most fans should probably make. With all of this said, I tend to believe that this is just Poles’ approach to Free Agency as a whole and not indicative of where he feels like they are at in their perceived rebuild. By all accounts, the time to win is now. Anything short of nine wins will probably be viewed as a failure. The good news: We still have six weeks of Free Agency, pre-draft trades, and of course, late April’s draft where Chicago currently holds two of the Top 10 picks.
As far as the money is concerned, $100 million is $100 million. It’s exactly $100 million whether it is paid to extend one of your own players (Johnson) or to somebody you got in free agency or in a trade (e.g., Moore and Sweat).
The best GMs acquire star players by all 3 means, and, regardless the mix, the idea is to acquire more than other teams.
If Poles grand plan is to acquire fewer studs than other GMs by free agency, then he has to acquire more than them via draft/trades. Total = X+Y+Z.
Exactly. And my point was that FA does not seem to be they way he is doing it (and I understand). And as I mentioned, with limited draft capital (unless he trades down), I do not see him doing it in any short term venue, which means that his lower priced contracts start to expire as the timeline gets extended, so that makes it a losing race with draft capital. He has made some trades but typically these are fewer and far between and will not fill the pipeline.
That is the point I was trying to make.
The best GMs make smart moves in all three areas, not just draft. If you’re going to depend more on the draft than other GMs, then you need to be better than them in the draft. JABF says Poles is on a learning curve and will get better with more experience. Brax is the only guy he’s drafted so far who has performed significantly above his draft position. He needs more hits in rounds 3-5. And at the #1 he will miss on Carter, Stroud, and Harrison. That’s just fine if we are Super Bowl ready 2025-26. If not, Warren needs to take stock.
Exactly. And my point was that FA does not seem to be they way he is doing it (and I understand). And as I mentioned, with limited draft capital (unless he trades down), I do not see him doing it in any short term venue, which means that his lower priced contracts start to expire as the timeline gets extended, so that makes it a losing race with draft capital. He has made some trades but typically these are fewer and far between and will not fill the pipeline.
That is the point I was trying to make.
The best GMs make smart moves in all three areas, not just draft. If you’re going to depend more on the draft than other GMs, then you need to be better than them in the draft. JABF says Poles is on a learning curve and will get better with more experience. Brax is the only guy he’s drafted so far who has performed significantly above his draft position. He needs more hits in rounds 3-5. And at the #1 he will miss on Carter, Stroud, and Harrison. That’s just fine if we are Super Bowl ready 2025-26. If not, Warren needs to take stock.
And again.... in the draft he has 5 picks and a lot of needs. The first being a possible QB which limits his ability to trade down with the first pick. (But that is me - he may trade down and pick a different QB). That leaves him 4 picks and lots of needs. It is hard to gain using the draft like that. You can trade down with pick 9, but then he loses out on some important positions, and he has to hit on the others he traded down for. My point is I don't see much progress in FA (again, I understand his strategy in FA, so I get that), I see real challenges in his position in the draft, and I don't see trades as getting him too far up the river either.
You have mentioned using and being smart using all three tools, and I have said that I understand and agree, but do not see a clear path with FA progress and his options in the draft, given the needs and give and takes he needs to make there. Of course, as I always say, "we'll see what happens". I just see choppy waters.
The best GMs make smart moves in all three areas, not just draft. If you’re going to depend more on the draft than other GMs, then you need to be better than them in the draft. JABF says Poles is on a learning curve and will get better with more experience. Brax is the only guy he’s drafted so far who has performed significantly above his draft position. He needs more hits in rounds 3-5. And at the #1 he will miss on Carter, Stroud, and Harrison. That’s just fine if we are Super Bowl ready 2025-26. If not, Warren needs to take stock.
And again.... in the draft he has 5 picks and a lot of needs. The first being a possible QB which limits his ability to trade down with the first pick. (But that is me - he may trade down and pick a different QB). That leaves him 4 picks and lots of needs. It is hard to gain using the draft like that. You can trade down with pick 9, but then he loses out on some important positions, and he has to hit on the others he traded down for. My point is I don't see much progress in FA (again, I understand his strategy in FA, so I get that), I see real challenges in his position in the draft, and I don't see trades as getting him too far up the river either.
You have mentioned using and being smart using all three tools, and I have said that I understand and agree, but do not see a clear path with FA progress and his options in the draft, given the needs and give and takes he needs to make there. Of course, as I always say, "we'll see what happens". I just see choppy waters.
JABF will be the first to remind you that it all doesn’t have to get done in 2024. He gives Poles til 2026 to be Super Bowl ready. I’m giving him 4 years, and I hope Warren is on that timeline.
If we get Odunze at #9 and Williams is immortal Mahomes 2.0, Poles doesn’t need to be genius GM to get there. Just fill a few holes on defense by 2025. That’s the optimistic scenario. We have all seen the alternative scenario for the last 30+ years.
