Bears at the Browns. What do you think?

davidl
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Bears at the Browns. What do you think? Dec 18, 2023 10:37:05 GMT -6 JABF likes this

Post by davidl on Dec 18, 2023 10:37:05 GMT -6

Dec 18, 2023 9:12:45 GMT -6 JABF said:

Dec 17, 2023 23:21:38 GMT -6 davidl said:

Whether we keep Fields or not, I want Harrison with #1 pick. There is no excuse for not doing that. Draft Bo Nix with the second pick, if trading Fields. He could be a legit QB1. In reality, as you have shown, there is no sure-fire winners when drafting a QB. On the other hand, I am pretty damn confident that Harrison is Randy Moss 2.0 and Carter is Warren Sapp 2.0. Is Poles really going to screw around and miss on both?

I agree, and I sure want to see the Bears bring MHJ to Chicago. But if we have to draft a QB1, that is a game changer for this draft and I see no way the team can draft a QB who has a decent (decent not a hope and a prayer guy) - and still get MHJ. Not happening. And we sure as heck can't get that DL guy. That ship has sailed if we need a QB1 in this draft. Now, if we just want to draft anyone... a JAG in this draft at QB, sure, we can do that and get MHJ and the DL guy too. But the QB1 thing throws everything out of wack. MHJ will be a top-3 draft pick, and probably top-2. JMO. Certainly top-5. A top DL guy is going to be ~top-7 at least. If we trade Fields we could possibly get a 2nd round pick for him... certainly a 3rd round pick I would think. But it is so very very difficult to get a franchise QB in the top-10 of the first round (not a bust but a stud QB) and we've seen the percentages of busts at QB for non-first round QBs (in many posts here over the years on our messageboard)... once you get out of the first round it's almost impossible drafting a great QB.

So. Having to draft a QB1 in this draft closes the door on MHJ. That ship will have sailed and we are not on it.

That's why it may make sense to keep Fields. But do you "make" the new coaches roll with Fields? I just don't see any easy path to this all.

Sorry, but passing on Harrison at#1 is not an option. You just don’t do that. If I were a coach, I wouldn’t mind having Fields, Moore, Harrison, Kmet, our OL (with center added), and our top-5 running game.

Williams and Maye will almost certainly go ahead of Bo Nix, and I expect Nix will be there for our second pick, if Fields is traded. I have watched a few Oregon and Washington college games this year. Penix is also a good QB, but I prefer Nix. He’s a quick processor and athletic. He’s a legit QB1 prospect in my book.

Of course, it’s also possible that Williams is Mahomes 2.0. Like Mahomes, he can be a game-changer. Maybe Poles is “blown away” by him (or Maye), and trades Fields. But if that doesn’t work, I will be complaining here loudly for passing on Harrison. I see Nix (or Fields)as good enough alternatives that passing on Harrison is simply not worth it from risk/rewards probability assessments.

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AlexM
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Bears at the Browns. What do you think? Dec 18, 2023 10:43:19 GMT -6 via mobile JABF likes this

Post by AlexM on Dec 18, 2023 10:43:19 GMT -6

Dec 18, 2023 10:37:05 GMT -6 davidl said:

Dec 18, 2023 9:12:45 GMT -6 JABF said:

I agree, and I sure want to see the Bears bring MHJ to Chicago. But if we have to draft a QB1, that is a game changer for this draft and I see no way the team can draft a QB who has a decent (decent not a hope and a prayer guy) - and still get MHJ. Not happening. And we sure as heck can't get that DL guy. That ship has sailed if we need a QB1 in this draft. Now, if we just want to draft anyone... a JAG in this draft at QB, sure, we can do that and get MHJ and the DL guy too. But the QB1 thing throws everything out of wack. MHJ will be a top-3 draft pick, and probably top-2. JMO. Certainly top-5. A top DL guy is going to be ~top-7 at least. If we trade Fields we could possibly get a 2nd round pick for him... certainly a 3rd round pick I would think. But it is so very very difficult to get a franchise QB in the top-10 of the first round (not a bust but a stud QB) and we've seen the percentages of busts at QB for non-first round QBs (in many posts here over the years on our messageboard)... once you get out of the first round it's almost impossible drafting a great QB.

So. Having to draft a QB1 in this draft closes the door on MHJ. That ship will have sailed and we are not on it.

That's why it may make sense to keep Fields. But do you "make" the new coaches roll with Fields? I just don't see any easy path to this all.

Sorry, but passing on Harrison at#1 is not an option. You just don’t do that. If I were a coach, I wouldn’t mind having Fields, Moore, Harrison, Kmet, our OL (with center added), and our top-5 running game.

Williams and Maye will almost certainly go ahead of Bo Nix, and I expect Nix will be there for our second pick, if Fields is traded. I have watched a few Oregon and Washington college games this year. Penix is also a good QB, but I prefer Nix. He’s a quick processor and athletic. He’s a legit QB1 prospect in my book.

Of course, it’s also possible that Williams is Mahomes 2.0. Like Mahomes, he can be a game-changer. Maybe Poles is “blown away” by him (or Maye), and trades Fields. But if that doesn’t work, I will be complaining here loudly for passing on Harrison. I see Nix (or Fields)as good enough alternatives that passing on Harrison is simply not worth it from risk/rewards probability assessments.

Tbh its not something I can comment on, but its an interesting fact that rd1 WRs are more likely to be busts than QBs taken in round 1. Pretty incredible fact, but true.

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davidl
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Bears at the Browns. What do you think? Dec 18, 2023 10:50:03 GMT -6

Post by davidl on Dec 18, 2023 10:50:03 GMT -6

Dec 18, 2023 10:43:19 GMT -6 AlexM said:

Dec 18, 2023 10:37:05 GMT -6 davidl said:

Sorry, but passing on Harrison at#1 is not an option. You just don’t do that. If I were a coach, I wouldn’t mind having Fields, Moore, Harrison, Kmet, our OL (with center added), and our top-5 running game.

Williams and Maye will almost certainly go ahead of Bo Nix, and I expect Nix will be there for our second pick, if Fields is traded. I have watched a few Oregon and Washington college games this year. Penix is also a good QB, but I prefer Nix. He’s a quick processor and athletic. He’s a legit QB1 prospect in my book.

Of course, it’s also possible that Williams is Mahomes 2.0. Like Mahomes, he can be a game-changer. Maybe Poles is “blown away” by him (or Maye), and trades Fields. But if that doesn’t work, I will be complaining here loudly for passing on Harrison. I see Nix (or Fields)as good enough alternatives that passing on Harrison is simply not worth it from risk/rewards probability assessments.

Tbh its not something I can comment on, but its an interesting fact that rd1 WRs are more likely to be busts than QBs taken in round 1. Pretty incredible fact, but true.

True, but we are talking about Harrison, not every WR ever drafted in first round.

Limit your analysis to WRs drafted #2 overall in first round, because that’s where Harrison is going. Statistically, more WRs drafted top-10 make All Pro than any other position.

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Last Edit: Dec 18, 2023 10:57:52 GMT -6 by davidl

AlexM
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Bears at the Browns. What do you think? Dec 18, 2023 10:57:33 GMT -6 via mobile JABF likes this

Post by AlexM on Dec 18, 2023 10:57:33 GMT -6

Dec 18, 2023 10:50:03 GMT -6 davidl said:

Dec 18, 2023 10:43:19 GMT -6 AlexM said:

Tbh its not something I can comment on, but its an interesting fact that rd1 WRs are more likely to be busts than QBs taken in round 1. Pretty incredible fact, but true.

True, but we are talking about Harrison, not every WR ever drafted in first round.

Limit your analysis to WRs drafted #2 overall in first round, because that’s where Harrison is going.

I know. I want Harrison and Fields... But its important what offices want.
If we going QB, theres a chance we gonna have our second pick in top 5, so thats not a bad place to pick QB, after Jr.
Although, I still want Caleb, so... 😁

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davidl
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Bears at the Browns. What do you think? Dec 18, 2023 11:01:05 GMT -6

Post by davidl on Dec 18, 2023 11:01:05 GMT -6

Dec 18, 2023 10:57:33 GMT -6 AlexM said:

Dec 18, 2023 10:50:03 GMT -6 davidl said:

True, but we are talking about Harrison, not every WR ever drafted in first round.

Limit your analysis to WRs drafted #2 overall in first round, because that’s where Harrison is going.

I know. I want Harrison and Fields... But its important what offices want.
If we going QB, theres a chance we gonna have our second pick in top 5, so thats not a bad place to pick QB, after Jr.
Although, I still want Caleb, so... 😁

Did you watch USC/Notre Dame game?

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AlexM
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Bears at the Browns. What do you think? Dec 18, 2023 11:04:08 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by AlexM on Dec 18, 2023 11:04:08 GMT -6

Dec 18, 2023 11:01:05 GMT -6 davidl said:

Dec 18, 2023 10:57:33 GMT -6 AlexM said:

I know. I want Harrison and Fields... But its important what offices want.
If we going QB, theres a chance we gonna have our second pick in top 5, so thats not a bad place to pick QB, after Jr.
Although, I still want Caleb, so... 😁

Did you watch USC/Notre Dame game?

Yes. That game was an anomaly. Check other games. His throw is beautiful, love how high he holds the ball, not at hip like Justin, unf

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davidl
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Bears at the Browns. What do you think? Dec 18, 2023 11:35:39 GMT -6

Post by davidl on Dec 18, 2023 11:35:39 GMT -6

Dec 18, 2023 11:04:08 GMT -6 AlexM said:

Dec 18, 2023 11:01:05 GMT -6 davidl said:

Did you watch USC/Notre Dame game?

Yes. That game was an anomaly. Check other games. His throw is beautiful, love how high he holds the ball, not at hip like Justin, unf

I have checked other games. He’s a very good prospect, but is he THAT much better than all the others to justify not taking Harrison at #1 and one of these other Heisman finalists at #5? That is the question, and my answer is “no”.

I look at college QBs in their big games under extreme pressure, because that is what they face in NFL. With everything on the line, Nix and Penix played well in their head-to-head matchup.

i haven’t looked at all of them, but I like Nix. His 40/3 ratio TD/INT. I have always considered that ratio as a good indicator.

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Last Edit: Dec 18, 2023 11:50:35 GMT -6 by davidl

bearsfaninaz
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Bears at the Browns. What do you think? Dec 18, 2023 16:11:11 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by bearsfaninaz on Dec 18, 2023 16:11:11 GMT -6

Dec 18, 2023 11:35:39 GMT -6 davidl said:

Dec 18, 2023 11:04:08 GMT -6 AlexM said:

Yes. That game was an anomaly. Check other games. His throw is beautiful, love how high he holds the ball, not at hip like Justin, unf

I have checked other games. He’s a very good prospect, but is he THAT much better than all the others to justify not taking Harrison at #1 and one of these other Heisman finalists at #5? That is the question, and my answer is “no”.

I look at college QBs in their big games under extreme pressure, because that is what they face in NFL. With everything on the line, Nix and Penix played well in their head-to-head matchup.

i haven’t looked at all of them, but I like Nix. His 40/3 ratio TD/INT. I have always considered that ratio as a good indicator.

I agree. MHJ number 1 and let's hope Maye at 5 or if he's gone then trade back and get Nix and a 2nd.

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davidl
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Bears at the Browns. What do you think? Dec 18, 2023 17:01:33 GMT -6

Post by davidl on Dec 18, 2023 17:01:33 GMT -6

Dec 18, 2023 16:11:11 GMT -6 bearsfaninaz said:

Dec 18, 2023 11:35:39 GMT -6 davidl said:

I have checked other games. He’s a very good prospect, but is he THAT much better than all the others to justify not taking Harrison at #1 and one of these other Heisman finalists at #5? That is the question, and my answer is “no”.

I look at college QBs in their big games under extreme pressure, because that is what they face in NFL. With everything on the line, Nix and Penix played well in their head-to-head matchup.

i haven’t looked at all of them, but I like Nix. His 40/3 ratio TD/INT. I have always considered that ratio as a good indicator.

I agree. MHJ number 1 and let's hope Maye at 5 or if he's gone then trade back and get Nix and a 2nd.

I will be very surprised if Maye is there at #5. If you trade back very far in the first round, you could miss on all of the top-3 QBs. I don’t want to risk that just for a second round pick.

If we are getting rid of Fields, we need a QB1 prospect who looks to have a higher ceiling than Fields. Otherwise, it is much better to keep Fields and use the two picks ourselves.

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bearsfaninaz
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Bears at the Browns. What do you think? Dec 18, 2023 18:55:52 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by bearsfaninaz on Dec 18, 2023 18:55:52 GMT -6

Dec 18, 2023 17:01:33 GMT -6 davidl said:

Dec 18, 2023 16:11:11 GMT -6 bearsfaninaz said:

I agree. MHJ number 1 and let's hope Maye at 5 or if he's gone then trade back and get Nix and a 2nd.

I will be very surprised if Maye is there at #5. If you trade back very far in the first round, you could miss on all of the top-3 QBs. I don’t want to risk that just for a second round pick.

If we are getting rid of Fields, we need a QB1 prospect who looks to have a higher ceiling than Fields. Otherwise, it is much better to keep Fields and use the two picks ourselves.

Pretty sure NE goes QB probably Williams. Leaving Cardinals who probably won't draft QB because of Murray's contract, and Washington who might draft a QB. So at that point we'd have to worry about a team leap frogging us. Giants could at 7 or Falcons at 10 but anyone else there have to give a haul to move back farther IMO.

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Bears at the Browns. What do you think?

Post by davidl on Dec 18, 2023 10:37:05 GMT -6

Post by AlexM on Dec 18, 2023 10:43:19 GMT -6

Post by davidl on Dec 18, 2023 10:50:03 GMT -6

Post by AlexM on Dec 18, 2023 10:57:33 GMT -6

Post by davidl on Dec 18, 2023 11:01:05 GMT -6

Post by AlexM on Dec 18, 2023 11:04:08 GMT -6

Post by davidl on Dec 18, 2023 11:35:39 GMT -6

Post by bearsfaninaz on Dec 18, 2023 16:11:11 GMT -6

Post by davidl on Dec 18, 2023 17:01:33 GMT -6

Post by bearsfaninaz on Dec 18, 2023 18:55:52 GMT -6