Post by davidl on Feb 18, 2023 22:32:28 GMT -6
So you are cherry-picking just one of his statistics he uses. You could apply his whole formula to Mooney and see where he comes out. Who cares?
Getting to the point, what do YOU want Poles to TRY to do about the WR situation in free agency and the draft? Trade for a veteran WR1? Draft a WR no lower than round two? None of the above?
Not cherry picking. Most of the "stats" he chose are garbage for trying to analyze route running. AdOT? The player doesn't control what plays are called or what the skill of his QB is. Route Versatility...this isn't even a stat, and again is impacted by the offense overall. Ditto for Yards Per Route Run, and target rate. And I'd love to apply his formula...except he never provides it. He just names random stats that he looked at to make a determination. He never said how he weighted them, how they went into his determination, or anything close to revealing how his "analysis" was formulated.
I'd be fine with all of the above. I'd like to see them acquire Jakobi Meyers in FA, but I also wouldn't mind them going for a vet receiver like Higgins or Ayiuk from SF in a trade. As for the draft, I'm more concerned about WHO the receiver is that they draft than the round they do it in. I have no idea how the draft is going to fall, so I have no idea what talent will be available when, so I'm not gonna bitch and moan if the Bears draft a receiver in round 3 if its someone I like.
I've tried making this point numerous times: unlike you, I don't care HOW Poles improves the receiving corp...I just care that he DOES it...and I don't care what that looks like, as long as it doesn't hamper the teams ability to be consistently good long term.
Higgins and Aiyuk would obviously be improvements. They are both young players and would cost a lot in future draft picks and are probably not even available in 2023 on acceptable terms. The rumor is that the Bengals will cut Mixon to help pay for Higgins.
My question about acquiring a veteran WR1 was more about DHop, Evans, Adams, Allen, Thomas, Cooks, etc. I think Poles could get one of these guys for a second round pick, or, if released, buy them off the FA market at an acceptable price. The HOW you go about acquiring a veteran FA makes a HUGE difference both in terms of the qualify player you get, the price you have to pay for him, and the length of his contract. All these guys named would be an improvement over the receivers we have now, but just saying “I want improvement, and I don’t care how it’s done” seems to render the HOW irrelevant in terms of the considerations I mention here as well as the opportunity costs of deploying resources to improve WR versus other possible uses of those resources. That’s why I care a lot about HOW Poles approaches the problem, even if you don’t.
This becomes even more obvious in the case of the draft. We could do the Colts trade and use the #4 to draft JSN for Fields. Fields just said in a press conference that (naturally) he would love the Bears to draft JSN. But that means we don’t get Anderson/Carter. I suppose it could happen, but I would be shocked, unless the Bears draft lower than #4.
Another theoretical possibility is to draft a WR in the 4th round and get lucky, but do you really want Poles to wait that long, especially if he fails to get a veteran WR1 prior to the draft? I don’t.
I expect JSN, Johnston, and Addison to be gone in the first round. However, there will surely be some very good slot receiver candidates drafted in the top half of the second round (Boutte, Downs, Dell). They will likely be gone if Poles waits until rounds 3-6 to draft a receiver. We all want Poles to try, but HOW he tries is not unrelated to the probability of success. There are no guarantees, but the probability of success, in general, is higher in second round than later. That is why I asked you whether you want Poles to TRY to get a quality WR no later than the second round. The PFF guys say that the historical probability of getting a quality receiver in rounds 1,2 is 80%, but it drops off to 65% in third round.
When you say HOW doesn’t matter except how it harms the team’s ability to be consistently good long-term, that is precisely WHY the HOW does matter. It’s possible we even agree here. That would be a novelty.