Post by brasilbear on Dec 19, 2022 11:15:53 GMT -6
Re-doing my trade down post, only Bears trading their pick, no players no future picks:
Lions: Bears receive 1.5 and 1.18
Cardinals: Bears receive 1.4, 2.3(35 over all), 3.4(68)
Colts: Bears receive 1.6, 2.6(38) + more picks to make up 480 points of value
For everyone else, its going to take 1sr, 2nd, 3rd rounders + future picks to make up the value.
Big difference in value between #2 and #3.
I don't think the Lions will trade with the Bears and I'm not sure the Cards will draft a QB. If I can find a site that gives me the value of future picks, I'll do some more figuring.
EDIT: Apparently future picks are discounted by one round in the same spot of the round they are from. IE 5th pick first round, from next years draft is assigned the value of the 2nd round 5th pick. It is also assumed that teams will be picking in the same position. So for examples, trading for Colts 2024 first round would assign that first rounder the same value as the 2023 second round pick, and because the Colts are drafting 6th in 2023, that value would be 2024 second round 6th pick. Did I get that right?
Post by brasilbear on Dec 20, 2022 17:06:38 GMT -6
Random Terrible Thought I Had Today:
Here is the draft order for the first 15 teams. Bold are team that might be in the market for a QB and might be willing to trade up. IF Houston takes a QB first, that means everyone behind the Bears is looking at QB2. I'm wondering if that makes the 3rd pick the more valuable one. Chicago isn't taking a QB, and it should be common knowledge. It will take less to trade with Seattle than Chicago (significantly less according to the charts.)
1 Houston 2 Chicago 3 Seattle (DEN) 4 Detroit (LAR) 5 Arizona 6 Indianapolis 7 Atlanta 8 Carolina 9 Philadelphia (NO) 10 Las Vegas 11 Jacksonville 12 Houston (CLE) 13 Pittsburgh 14 Green Bay 15 Seattle
The one trade I'm laughing about is this one: "...Texans trade the 13th overall pick, a second and third-rounder, and next year’s first and third-round picks to the Bears for the No. 2 overall." All that so they can draft #1 and #2? Seems really far fetched, like someone figured out that the math worked and then ran with it. Dropping to 13th would remove them from any of the top DL-men, top WRs and top OTs.
won't go into specifics, here's how i see it playing out
2 big name WR's in FA, Agholor, Shepard, JuJu, something along those lines so fans will be happy 3 OL, RT, OC, LG.
Def DT someone w/moderate success and young like Poona Ford DE similar, like Donte Fowler Jr.
draft, Jalen Carter, Andre Carter, OLB, Darnell Washington TE
fans cheer as the team again punted on the O, but at least Poles tried to hide the fact.
Explain how redoing the offensive line and signing two of the better free agent receivers and drafting the best tight end is "punting on the O".
The fact that you don't know says a lot. It's what Lovie and Angelo did, how did that work out long term? It's not a long term solution, it never works. Want to build around your your qb, you attack the OL and receivers in the draft and FA, is far to often fools gold. They are going to give their young qb nothing but cast offs and retreads, after the previous year investing nothing in the draft and giving him cast offs and retreads. All while over investing in the def again.
B/c that's the HC he hired, which was also a mistake. They all compound on top of eachother. Currently not 1 non replacement level WR or TE or OL on the roster. But hey lets spend another draft fixing that def, b/c those elite defenses are what win championships, not the franchise qb's and their high powered O's built around young explosive players
Wasting not 1 but 2 years of their qb's rookie contract is not just a poor play, it's damn near inexcusable.
Explain how redoing the offensive line and signing two of the better free agent receivers and drafting the best tight end is "punting on the O".
The fact that you don't know says a lot. It's what Lovie and Angelo did, how did that work out long term? It's not a long term solution, it never works. Want to build around your your qb, you attack the OL and receivers in the draft and FA, is far to often fools gold. They are going to give their young qb nothing but cast offs and retreads, after the previous year investing nothing in the draft and giving him cast offs and retreads. All while over investing in the def again.
B/c that's the HC he hired, which was also a mistake. They all compound on top of eachother. Currently not 1 non replacement level WR or TE or OL on the roster. But hey lets spend another draft fixing that def, b/c those elite defenses are what win championships, not the franchise qb's and their high powered O's built around young explosive players
Wasting not 1 but 2 years of their qb's rookie contract is not just a poor play, it's damn near inexcusable.
So you can't explain it. Got it. And why are you so friggen worked up about something that hasn't happened yet and you have no friggen clue will happen? Just admit it, Poles can't do anything that will make you happy. He's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't for you. Do you get miserable like this with everything when you think something...or is this just a Bears thing. Either way, you must be a joy at parties.
The fact that you don't know says a lot. It's what Lovie and Angelo did, how did that work out long term? It's not a long term solution, it never works. Want to build around your your qb, you attack the OL and receivers in the draft and FA, is far to often fools gold. They are going to give their young qb nothing but cast offs and retreads, after the previous year investing nothing in the draft and giving him cast offs and retreads. All while over investing in the def again.
B/c that's the HC he hired, which was also a mistake. They all compound on top of eachother. Currently not 1 non replacement level WR or TE or OL on the roster. But hey lets spend another draft fixing that def, b/c those elite defenses are what win championships, not the franchise qb's and their high powered O's built around young explosive players
Wasting not 1 but 2 years of their qb's rookie contract is not just a poor play, it's damn near inexcusable.
So you can't explain it. Got it. And why are you so friggen worked up about something that hasn't happened yet and you have no friggen clue will happen? Just admit it, Poles can't do anything that will make you happy. He's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't for you. Do you get miserable like this with everything when you think something...or is this just a Bears thing. Either way, you must be a joy at parties.
We all get worked up here about the Bears, over different stuff. We don't all agree on how best to fix the team. And that's okay. LOL, Ric has strong views, but so do a number of the guys here - me included. It would be pretty boring if we all agreed on everything here.
The fact that you don't know says a lot. It's what Lovie and Angelo did, how did that work out long term? It's not a long term solution, it never works. Want to build around your your qb, you attack the OL and receivers in the draft and FA, is far to often fools gold. They are going to give their young qb nothing but cast offs and retreads, after the previous year investing nothing in the draft and giving him cast offs and retreads. All while over investing in the def again.
B/c that's the HC he hired, which was also a mistake. They all compound on top of eachother. Currently not 1 non replacement level WR or TE or OL on the roster. But hey lets spend another draft fixing that def, b/c those elite defenses are what win championships, not the franchise qb's and their high powered O's built around young explosive players
Wasting not 1 but 2 years of their qb's rookie contract is not just a poor play, it's damn near inexcusable.
So you can't explain it. Got it. And why are you so friggen worked up about something that hasn't happened yet and you have no friggen clue will happen? Just admit it, Poles can't do anything that will make you happy. He's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't for you. Do you get miserable like this with everything when you think something...or is this just a Bears thing. Either way, you must be a joy at parties.
so you have no reading comprehension got it. see how that works? so easy. thanks for the not conversation.
Here is the draft order for the first 15 teams. Bold are team that might be in the market for a QB and might be willing to trade up. IF Houston takes a QB first, that means everyone behind the Bears is looking at QB2. I'm wondering if that makes the 3rd pick the more valuable one. Chicago isn't taking a QB, and it should be common knowledge. It will take less to trade with Seattle than Chicago (significantly less according to the charts.)
1 Houston 2 Chicago 3 Seattle (DEN) 4 Detroit (LAR) 5 Arizona 6 Indianapolis 7 Atlanta 8 Carolina 9 Philadelphia (NO) 10 Las Vegas 11 Jacksonville 12 Houston (CLE) 13 Pittsburgh 14 Green Bay 15 Seattle
The one trade I'm laughing about is this one: "...Texans trade the 13th overall pick, a second and third-rounder, and next year’s first and third-round picks to the Bears for the No. 2 overall." All that so they can draft #1 and #2? Seems really far fetched, like someone figured out that the math worked and then ran with it. Dropping to 13th would remove them from any of the top DL-men, top WRs and top OTs.
Yeah, some of these mock drafts are insane.
The Seahawks will take Anderson or Carter (whichever one the Bears don’t take).
You are never going to get either of these future superstars in this draft class, if you trade down to 6-8. However, if they do trade down, they should draft WR. But if they go strict BPA, it might be Murphy there.
Houston will take Young at #1, and will have a choice of good players at #13. No reason to trade up with the Bears.
The upcoming game between the Rams and Broncos could decide whether Seahawks are #3 or #4. If they are #4 and want Stroud, then they might trade with the Bears to get ahead of the Rams, assuming Goff is not the long-term QB for the Lions. That could give us an extra shot at a WR.
Here is the draft order for the first 15 teams. Bold are team that might be in the market for a QB and might be willing to trade up. IF Houston takes a QB first, that means everyone behind the Bears is looking at QB2. I'm wondering if that makes the 3rd pick the more valuable one. Chicago isn't taking a QB, and it should be common knowledge. It will take less to trade with Seattle than Chicago (significantly less according to the charts.)
1 Houston 2 Chicago 3 Seattle (DEN) 4 Detroit (LAR) 5 Arizona 6 Indianapolis 7 Atlanta 8 Carolina 9 Philadelphia (NO) 10 Las Vegas 11 Jacksonville 12 Houston (CLE) 13 Pittsburgh 14 Green Bay 15 Seattle
The one trade I'm laughing about is this one: "...Texans trade the 13th overall pick, a second and third-rounder, and next year’s first and third-round picks to the Bears for the No. 2 overall." All that so they can draft #1 and #2? Seems really far fetched, like someone figured out that the math worked and then ran with it. Dropping to 13th would remove them from any of the top DL-men, top WRs and top OTs.
Yeah, some of these mock drafts are insane.
The Seahawks will take Anderson or Carter (whichever one the Bears don’t take).
You are never going to get either of these future superstars in this draft class, if you trade down to 6-8. However, if they do trade down, they should draft WR. But if they go strict BPA, it might be Murphy there.
Houston will take Young at #1, and will have a choice of good players at #13. No reason to trade up with the Bears.
The upcoming game between the Rams and Broncos could decide whether Seahawks are #3 or #4. If they are #4 and want Stroud, then they might trade with the Bears to get ahead of the Rams, assuming Goff is not the long-term QB for the Lions. That could give us an extra shot at a WR.
The math changes every week as the draft positions change. I hope if the Bears do trade down, they get the haul people are expecting.