Post by chicago66 on Dec 8, 2020 17:58:40 GMT -6
Very preliminary of course but Kmet looks to have some real potential too. Dude has hands and wheels, just needs to learn the finer points.
If Ryan Pace had drafted like this in 2015-2017, we wouldn't be talking about a 6 game losing streak meltdown and yet another lost season.
Pace was learning on the job, the team knew that, the fans knew that, and we all knew the team was going to be shit for at least 2 years after he got the job anyways. 2016 he got Whitehair, Nkwit, Bush DHC and Howard 2 starters and 3 role players in 9 picks. 2017 got 2 starters out of 5 picks. really all you can expect out of a draft w/5 picks. He did a fine job in 2016 and 2017.
You don't need to just hit early, or late. You just need to hit. He's done that. He wiffed on qb, name the teams that haven't that pick top 5.
Here is a list of qb's taken in the top 5 picks from 2000-2018(allowing 3 years of growth the norm expectations for a qb)
1 CLE Baker Mayfield
3 NYJ Sam Darnold
2 CHI Mitchell Trubisky
1 LAR Jared Goff
2 PHI Carson Wentz
1 TAM Jameis Winston
2 TEN Marcus Mariota
3 JAX Blake Bortles
1 IND Andrew Luck
2 WAS Robert Griffin III
1 CAR Cam Newton
1 STL Sam Bradford
1 DET Matthew Stafford
5 NYJ Mark Sanchez
3 ATL Matt Ryan
1 OAK JaMarcus Russell
3 TEN Vince Young
1 SFO Alex Smith
1 SDG Eli Manning
4 NYG Philip Rivers
1 CIN Carson Palmer
1 HOU David Carr
3 DET Joey Harrington
1 ATL Michael Vick
12 busts
3 NYJ Sam Darnold
2 CHI Mitchell Trubisky
1 LAR Jared Goff
2 PHI Carson Wentz
1 TAM Jameis Winston
2 TEN Marcus Mariota
3 JAX Blake Bortles
1 IND Andrew Luck
2 WAS Robert Griffin III
1 CAR Cam Newton
1 STL Sam Bradford
1 DET Matthew Stafford
5 NYJ Mark Sanchez
3 ATL Matt Ryan
1 OAK JaMarcus Russell
3 TEN Vince Young
1 SFO Alex Smith
1 SDG Eli Manning
4 NYG Philip Rivers
1 CIN Carson Palmer
1 HOU David Carr
3 DET Joey Harrington
1 ATL Michael Vick
12 busts
7 just guys
5 guys that got their team to a SB
5 guys that got their team to a SB
Basically you have a 50-50 shot getting a qb that can actually help your team if you are picking a qb in the top 5, and about a 1 and 5 of a qb that will actually get you to the SB. I'm betting the #'s are similar for non qb's also, if you are picking top 5 chances are you are such a bad team that it wouldn't have mattered who you picked they would struggle. Even a great one like Luck couldn't fix his team, and they were so bad he was forced into retirement 6 years later.
You need to rethink your theories on the draft and how useful top picks are, they aren't much better guarantees for any team good or bad and there is a strong shot you are going to pick the wrong player top 10 or bottom 10. The draft is about getting a few starters and a few backups, and after the draft it really doesn't matter where you got them from.
Pace has been better then he's been given credit for.
+1000