Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2016 6:54:29 GMT -6
I'll give it a shot. Using 2000-2016 as my basis.
By QB record (which is a stat I hate but others seem to value for some reason) here are the QBs over .500
21 players drafted in picks 1-5
Eli Manning (99-87)
P.Rivers (93-70)
Palmer (84-78)
Ryan (76-53)
Smith (70-53-1)
Vick (61-51-1)
Newton (46-34)
Luck (36-22)
V.Young (31-19)
So 9 out of 21 (I dropped Sanchez because....really?) 9/21=43%
Everyone else: 192 drafted with picks 6-end of draft
Brady 172-51
Wilson 47-19
Rogers 84-40
Roethlisberger 115-57
Dalton 51-28
Flacco 78-47
Bridgewater 17-11
Kaeperenick 27-20
Brees 124-95
Pennington 44-37
Foles 19-16
Grossman 25-22
Q.Carter 18-16
Garrard 39-37
Orton 42-40
Schaub 47-45
Thats all she wrote folks: 16/192=8%
Here are the guys that I didn't put in that due to small numbers of games started I didn't include: Sieman, Garoppolo, Brissett, Drew Henson, Stephen McGee, Brock Osweiler, Dennis Dixon, AJ McMarron, Dak Prescott, Craig Krenzel, Drew Stanton, Tim Tebow, TJ Yates
If you want you include them thats 29/162=18%
and 138 of them never even got a start as an NFL QB.
I'm willing to use whatever stat to want to re-run the numbers.
Thank you for this Research and write up
In other words, the higher you draft, the better Chance you get yourself a good one. This should be seen for all positions.
I'm on the Kaaya Train. Guy can make the throws and he Looks smart and calm on the field. I don't care about those flashy athletic Highlight QBs. I want Kaaya
What are their total wins vs losses and their win percentage. What's the average number of wins, the median number, and the standard deviation for each group that way? Looking at or ranking based on total wins is deceptive. For instance.
In group one Eli has the most wins but both Luck and Young have a better winning percentage 62% than the rest and Young hasn't played since 2011. Palmer's winning % is 52% vs Cutler's at 50% but Palmer has been on playoff teams for several years whereas Cutler has been on losers. Prior to that Cutler would have looked better.
Brady's winning % is the highest of all (77%) and he was a 6th round pick. Wilson is next at 71% and he was a 3rd round pick followed by Rodgers (24th pick) and Big Ben (11th pick) at 67%. From this viewpoint QBs not taken in the top 5 are better based on winning % and this is even close to a thorough analysis.
I don't mean to discredit what bb did only say that this way of looking at doesn't tell us any more than we already know which is the chances of finding a more talented QB are better the higher you draft but exactly where to draft them it does not predict. You'd have to go far deeper into it and that still wouldn't tell you all you might want to know.
Like Eli has won only 53% of his starts but he's won two SB vs Cutler whose won 50% of his starts but no SB. What conclusion can you draw from that? Is Eli that much better or is it that he played on two very very good teams Cutler has not played on and if they switched teams what then? Eli forced a trade for Rivers when he was drafted by SD. Rivers has the better winning % but Eli won two SBs.
Everything is clearer in hindsight and I haven't analyzed the top ten from each group like I indicated above but at a glance to the top QBs from group II have a better winning % than those in group I so based on that it would tell you NOT to take one in the top five.