I'm only tossing out possibilities. AJ ended up betting on himself on a one year deal due somewhat to his lingering injuries as a Bear. Maclin parlayed one outstanding year in Philly into a 5 year deal with KC then his production declined every year since. Adams has played in 59 out of 64 games since his rookie year. He's yet to have a 1000 yard season but his catch % is over 60% so he's been both available and dependable.
Given the circumstances and two of our current WRs coming off of season ending injuries how far would you stretch for Robinson? Is he a guy you'd give $40 mil plus in guaranteed $$$ to or is $20-$30 mil more like it? Or would you offer a one year deal and for how much?
I'd give him around 30 mill guaranteed on a multi year deal. Robinson, prior to this season has been available. 16 games the two seasons prior. His drop rate is about 5%. When Bortles throws to him he's got a 118 qb rating. I'm not messing around with one year deals.
IF he's rehabbed and ready to go full throttle by the June OTAs I might go that high but what about if he's not and we're looking at a guy who may be on the PUP throughout camp? Then what?
We seem to be very enamored of a crop of WRs both in FA and the draft who come with all kinds of question marks and concerns attached. In fact some idiot even proposed a trade for Dez Bryant.
I'm not into helping other team offload their problems at our expense. Like I said in the thread about Landry with this years crop of WRs I'd advise both caution and patience. We need to be smart.
Robinson is my preferred big-name WR target. Has been all along. Jax didn’t tag him cuz they also have Lee to sign, used (wasted) big money on Bortles, and are pretty tight cap-wise with a lot of coin tied up in their D. AR is a true #1 WR who has produced even with crappy QB play and he’s young. His ACL was in week 1, not week 16, and from what I’ve read he will be 100% ready to go certainly by camp. ACL tears are not the huge red flag they used to be as reconstructive surgery has improved greatly over the last 20 years.
Robinson, Meredith, and White would be the outside WR crew. Wilson shouldn’t cost much and is rumored to be all but official coming to Chicago thanks to the Nagy connection. That obviates the need to re-sign Wright. Bellamy, Inman, and a day 3 pick (4th-5th round) can compete for the backup 1-2 spots with Wilson being the primary slot guy. That’s a huge improvement in top-line talent and depth over the dumpster fire we had last year.
And it it shouldn’t be all that expensive either. Robinson will obviously cost some money and I’d like to see Pace “stretch” there to get him. Wilson won’t cost much. Let Wright go and cut Wheaton. The net “cost” there really isn’t much and it eliminates the need to draft a WR in round 1 or 2.
Make it happen, Ryan.
Robinson is also my favorite. However, as you say, he will be expensive. Not sure Pace will do it. And then we cue up the "glad he didn't overpay" guys.
Oh yeah, I’m expecting that. Hey, #1 type WRs cost money. And we need one. Pace tried to draft one to replace Marshall (White) and whiffed. He had another shot potentially with Jeffery but he left likely because he didn’t see playoff potential and didn’t want to play receiver to Mike Glennon. That happened with other WRs we were interested in last year too. Robinson’s cost won’t be that much higher (few million) than what we offered Jeffery last year. Hopefully a better coaching staff and a talented young QB will be enough to convince AR to come here.
A 4-5 year deal that only guarantees $20-$25 mil is a $10-$12 mil a year deal for two years of guaranteed money. That's a far cry from the $40-$50 mil guarantees given to the top five. Davante Adams took a hometown discount to stay in GB for $30 mil and he wasn't coming off a major knee injury.
So....maybe Robinson will take a one year deal for $10 mil or less like Maclin and AJ did and then re-enters the FA market again in 2019. The bottom line is I feel Robinson is a situation we should approach cautiously and maybe we can. I'll be interested to see how Pace goes about FA because whoever he sets his sites on he normally gets done quickly.
You're comparing an ACL tear to a guy with chronic knee issues since college. They are not the same thing at all. Also Jacksonville didn't tag Lee either...so them not tagging Robinson doesn't really do much for me as a negative.
Yeah, I’ve even read posts (different site) comparing Robinson to McPhee! They both have “a bum knee”, you know!
LOL, there’s a huge difference between a chronic arthritic knee and a repaired ACL in an otherwise healthy knee.
I'd love to see Robinson signed. I wonder if Pace is stinging a bit from criticism over his free agency woes so far as a GM, and consequently want to redeem himself this year and make a move like this. All I know is that the team needs to get better talent around Mitch Trubisky. Robinson could be a young guy who could be here longer term for when we (hopefully) can make a super bowl run with Trubisky. If they do sign him I hope they don't dink around with a shorter term deal. Lock him up so he's here to grow with T.
If not this guy, then Pace better have a rock solid plan "B" for getting serious talent around Trubisky, or I'm through with Pace. To compete, the Bears need a guy who can bring in the right talent BOTH in the draft AND free agency. That's his job. The Division is going to be pretty awesome this year... all 3 of our competitors are going to be tough this year. Even Detroit is going to be an improved team. I know not everyone here believes that. But I do. Bears gotta get it together with the roster talent. Or it will just be another failed year, with us ending up in last place in the NFCN, and one of the worst teams in the NFL - again.
I agree that i'm not the biggest fan of spending a ton of money on a hurt WR but what do we do with all this cap space?
There is no point on saving this cap space while we waste these next few years getting Howard on a bargain. Same with Floyd and Trubisky if they take the next step. We got a short window to front load big name players before our own big name players start demanding crazy money.
Its time to surround Trubisky with talent and let him prove to us if he's a franchise QB or not. This would also take a major need away from the team.
We have been shooting for second tier guys since Pace came here and it hasn't worked out. When do we try something new?
Any unused cap can be brought forward into 2019 so I'm not worried about that at all.
What does concern me is we have just 45 players signed which means we need to add 45 this spring. Some will be our own UFAs and RFAs. Some will be higher dollar UFAs from other teams and some may go to extensions for core players like Goldman and Amos and of course Fuller still needs to be signed as well.
Pace can easily front load contracts if chooses so that after 2-3 years there's little if any dead cap involved to interfere with future extensions for his top guys. Having lots of money to spend doesn't justify overspending and ending up with cap issues down the road and it can't buy you a championship. Many have tried that approach and failed.
Like it or not this is a reset in the middle of a rebuild and based on his previous mistakes in FA it won't pay for Pace to keep making them. No one is gonna be very forgiving of another FA cycle as poorly done as 2017 was.
Soul, but the good part about the CBA is that only the top 51 contracts count towards the CAP.
Honestly, I don't worry about the last times. Each person is an individual. We have a different QB and coaches to boot. I know you can't forget what happened, but at the same time it is not indicative of what it will be with a new player today.
But.....we have the same GM whose fortunes in FA have not been good or even average so I look for some caution.
In my world I'd tender Meredith, bring back Inman whose a dependable route runner and somewhat inexpensive, sign Albert Wilson, and shoot for one of the healthy second tier guys like Lee, Richardson, Moncrief, etc. We also have White returning and you just know Pace will want him to get one last shot and we have PS guys like Gentry.
This is one time when I feel Pace's approach to passing on the higher priced options and spreading the risk would make complete sense.
Word is Pace is still talking with Landry's agent about a trade but unless the deal favors us far more than Miami I would not do it.
I’m not sure I understand your logic here, Soul. So you’re saying that because Pace cheaped out and sucked in FA last year, he should continue cheaping out this year? I see it oppositely. Pace needs to bring in some real talent this year and worry a little less about pinching goddam pennies. Yes, I realize some “bargain players” are always part of filling out any roster but he should spend some serious coin at WR and OG and land us two quality starters.
The Bears receivers you mentioned are hardly an inspiring group to have faith in. White can’t be relied upon to even survive September. Inman and Gentry are fringe roster players at best. Only Meredith is truly worth keeping as a “starter”.
Im gonna be really pissed (yet again) at Pace if he doesn’t make a genuine, sincere effort to land Robinson. That means don’t cheap out, open your pocketbook, and pay the man. I’m sure any contract he signs is going to have some injury hedge in it—like, all/most of the guaranteed money being front-loaded into the first 2 years. It can be done.
Robinson is (looks like) available, he’s a true #1 which we don’t have, he’s produced even with a crappy QB, he’s free of behavioral issues, and he’s only 25. I don’t know what more you could ask for in a situation where all of us agree we need MAJOR HELP at WR. Robinson is a younger, quicker, non-crazy version of Brandon Marshall and god knows Trubisky could sure use a reliable, “security blanket” type of target like that.
We all know we gotta get MT some weapons. Robinson is a weapon.
You're comparing an ACL tear to a guy with chronic knee issues since college. They are not the same thing at all. Also Jacksonville didn't tag Lee either...so them not tagging Robinson doesn't really do much for me as a negative.
Yeah, I’ve even read posts (different site) comparing Robinson to McPhee! They both have “a bum knee”, you know!
LOL, there’s a huge difference between a chronic arthritic knee and a repaired ACL in an otherwise healthy knee.
? Well that's about as non-sequitur as it gets. Two different players playing two different positions with two different problems. I can't see a connection either nor have I ever made one between the two so I have no idea where butkus feels I have other than the same cautions to be considered with any injured player.
I mentioned Maclin and AJ. Where does McPhee come into this?
My point is simple. Let's look at our WR position past and present.
Past: We spent $10 mil on Eddie Royal as a slot guy knowing full well he was coming off injuries in two of the previous four seasons that had sapped his production. He played in a total of 18 out of 32 games for us and produced about 600 yards receiving over two seasons. I'd call that a busted FA signing.
Past: We spent our #7 overall pick in 2015 on White whose been unable to contribute much of anything for three seasons.
Past: Both White and Meredith were lost to injury last year and our top replacement Marcus Wheaton was also injured most of the year and finished with just 3 catches for 51 yards.
Present: So we have two of our supposed best prospects coming back off injuries and another who may well be released once we add some WR talent. We're looking at the possibility of spending big on yet another WR rehabbing from a similar injury to that which Meredith sustained so if we sign Robinson and tender Meredith theoretically our two top WRs would both be rehabbing from ACL injuries which leaves us with White and Wheaton as their backups.
Unless both are back to top form no later than July I'd say we're still in a pickle at WR if these guys can't practice and connect with Mitch in camp and preseason. I'm sure we'll also draft a WR but who and where and how prepared he'll be to start who can say right now. And then there's Inman only IF we resign him and Gentry on the PS and quite possibly we replace Wright with Albert Wilson.
I'm not saying don't pursue Robinson I'm just advising caution especially since JAX wasn't sure enough of his status to tag him. With two other big WRs coming off injuries, one of whom has yet to prove he even belongs in the NFL, and Wheaton whose so far been nearly useless. We already have to spend nearly $3 mil to tender Meredith and if we have to spend $30 mil guaranteed on Robinson he better damn well be able to play 16 games this year and play well.
I'm only tossing out possibilities. AJ ended up betting on himself on a one year deal due somewhat to his lingering injuries as a Bear. Maclin parlayed one outstanding year in Philly into a 5 year deal with KC then his production declined every year since. Adams has played in 59 out of 64 games since his rookie year. He's yet to have a 1000 yard season but his catch % is over 60% so he's been both available and dependable.
Given the circumstances and two of our current WRs coming off of season ending injuries how far would you stretch for Robinson? Is he a guy you'd give $40 mil plus in guaranteed $$$ to or is $20-$30 mil more like it? Or would you offer a one year deal and for how much?
I'd give him around 30 mill guaranteed on a multi year deal. Robinson, prior to this season has been available. 16 games the two seasons prior. His drop rate is about 5%. When Bortles throws to him he's got a 118 qb rating. I'm not messing around with one year deals.
Completely agree ^^^^
Also consider that Bortles is a very inaccurate thrower. Anyone who watches NFL football regularly can see that. Last year in the playoffs he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat on most of his attempts. Makes Robinson’s stats all the better knowing how hard Bortles makes it for his receivers.
Any unused cap can be brought forward into 2019 so I'm not worried about that at all.
What does concern me is we have just 45 players signed which means we need to add 45 this spring. Some will be our own UFAs and RFAs. Some will be higher dollar UFAs from other teams and some may go to extensions for core players like Goldman and Amos and of course Fuller still needs to be signed as well.
Pace can easily front load contracts if chooses so that after 2-3 years there's little if any dead cap involved to interfere with future extensions for his top guys. Having lots of money to spend doesn't justify overspending and ending up with cap issues down the road and it can't buy you a championship. Many have tried that approach and failed.
Like it or not this is a reset in the middle of a rebuild and based on his previous mistakes in FA it won't pay for Pace to keep making them. No one is gonna be very forgiving of another FA cycle as poorly done as 2017 was.
Soul, but the good part about the CBA is that only the top 51 contracts count towards the CAP.
I know that Jim but motm was asking what we would do with all of our cap money and all I was saying is that's the least of our concerns. Spending it well is what does concern me since we often failed to do it.
But.....we have the same GM whose fortunes in FA have not been good or even average so I look for some caution.
In my world I'd tender Meredith, bring back Inman whose a dependable route runner and somewhat inexpensive, sign Albert Wilson, and shoot for one of the healthy second tier guys like Lee, Richardson, Moncrief, etc. We also have White returning and you just know Pace will want him to get one last shot and we have PS guys like Gentry.
This is one time when I feel Pace's approach to passing on the higher priced options and spreading the risk would make complete sense.
Word is Pace is still talking with Landry's agent about a trade but unless the deal favors us far more than Miami I would not do it.
I’m not sure I understand your logic here, Soul. So you’re saying that because Pace cheaped out and sucked in FA last year, he should continue cheaping out this year? I see it oppositely. Pace needs to bring in some real talent this year and worry a little less about pinching goddam pennies. Yes, I realize some “bargain players” are always part of filling out any roster but he should spend some serious coin at WR and OG and land us two quality starters.
The Bears receivers you mentioned are hardly an inspiring group to have faith in. White can’t be relied upon to even survive September. Inman and Gentry are fringe roster players at best. Only Meredith is truly worth keeping as a “starter”.
Im gonna be really pissed (yet again) at Pace if he doesn’t make a genuine, sincere effort to land Robinson. That means don’t cheap out, open your pocketbook, and pay the man. I’m sure any contract he signs is going to have some injury hedge in it—like, all/most of the guaranteed money being front-loaded into the first 2 years. It can be done.
Robinson is (looks like) available, he’s a true #1 which we don’t have, he’s produced even with a crappy QB, he’s free of behavioral issues, and he’s only 25. I don’t know what more you could ask for in a situation where all of us agree we need MAJOR HELP at WR. Robinson is a younger, quicker, non-crazy version of Brandon Marshall and god knows Trubisky could sure use a reliable, “security blanket” type of target like that.
We all know we gotta get MT some weapons. Robinson is a weapon.
OK, tell me why players like the second tier guys I've mentioned, tendering Meredith whom everyone seems to agree is a good WR, and bringing back a tall FA we got a glimpse of who runs great routes and gets open is "cheaping out".
I guess we see it quite differently MP. I see more talent than you do but talent that was being hamstrung in a dog shit offense.
What we need more than anything is a quantity of talent at WR so we can avoid what happened when injuries trashed us last year. With both Meredith and White coming back from injuries and neither having a long history of top production we need more than one high priced top shelf WR we're gonna risk a season on having been fully recovered from an ACL injury.
Give the nature of Nagy's offense which features RBs and TEs in much of the passing game I even question the immediate need for a true #1 WR let alone an injured one. I'm only advocating caution when it comes to spending big on any of these UFAs and to be honest I'd prefer we sign guys like Wilson and a couple of the second tier guys who have shown good skills like Richardson, Lee, and Moncrief to getting in a bidding war for one guy.
I'd rather go into camp with a half dozen guys who can and have played productively and have upside than to risk it all on one UFA or draftee. WR is only one position out of several that needs an infusion of talent. If we weren't staring down the need for a top LG, three starting CBs, an ILB, a team of edge rushers, and at least one good DL I might approach it differently but once I look at that reality how I budget FA takes on a whole new look.