Allen Robinson will not be FT’d by Jax

Interesting perspective on Robinson's options as a UFA.

Allen Robinson will get great value in free agency
by Matt Verderame6 hours agoFollow @mattverderame



The Jacksonville Jaguars decided not to place their franchise tag on Allen Robinson, setting the receiver up for a significant payday.

On Tuesday, the Jaguars reportedly informed wide receiver Allen Robinson that they would not be using the franchise tag to retain him. Robinson missed all but the first offensive possession of 2017 with a torn ACL, casting a shadow over his impending free agency.

Perhaps it was the injury that made Jacksonville brass leery of keeping him around. Regardless, it’s the wrong decision for the team, but a blessing in disguise for the player.

Robinson is only 24 years old, and hitting a market without a bevy of star receivers alongside him. With the Miami Dolphins tagging Jarvis Landry, his biggest competition is Sammy Watkins.

Watkins, 25, caught 39 passes for 593 yards in 2017 despite playing on a high-flying Los Angeles Rams offense. Robinson dwarfed those numbers n 2015 and ’16, even while saddled with Blake Bortles.

When the NFL free agent tampering period begins on March 12, Robinson’s representation will be busy. There are a legion of teams with clear needs at receiver that also happen to have deep pockets, ranging from the San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears to the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers.

Although the NFL is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately proposition, Robinson’s 2015 campaign can’t be ignored. The former Penn State star went off for 80 receptions, 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. The following year, Jacksonville put nothing around him again, and he still totaled 73 catches for 883 yards and six touchdowns.

Now, Robinson can play his free agency one of two ways. He can go the Jeremy Maclin route, or he can try for long-term security at the potential expense of bigger money.

After tearing his ACL at training camp in 2013, Maclin signed a one-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles and balled out, notching career-highs of 1,318 yards and 10 scores. The following spring, Maclin signed a five-year, $55 million deal with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Robinson could absolutely take a lucrative one-year deal and show his talents, then cash in as a 25-year-old coming off a healthy season. He could also try to ink a four or five-year pact worth $20-25 million in guarantees, setting him up for life. However, that contract would be at a bit of a discounted rate because of the injury risk.

Either way, Robinson is in great position, with teams about to have a bidding war for his services.

A 4-5 year deal that only guarantees $20-$25 mil is a $10-$12 mil a year deal for two years of guaranteed money.  That's a far cry from the $40-$50 mil guarantees given to the top five.  Davante Adams took a hometown discount to stay in GB for $30 mil and he wasn't coming off a major knee injury.

So....maybe Robinson will take a one year deal for $10 mil or less like Maclin and AJ did and then re-enters the FA market again in 2019.  The bottom line is I feel Robinson is a situation we should approach cautiously and maybe we can.  I'll be interested to see how Pace goes about FA because whoever he sets his sites on he normally gets done quickly.

I have no idea if Robinson, Landry, Lee, etc will be resigned or not. I'd bet on Landry not being resigned though. I think there is friction with Gase, but the real reason is that they can't afford to keep him. You don't let a guy with that kind of production go if you can keep it from happening.

There are going to hopefully be some good WRs out there this year. Unfortunately, there are also several really WR needy teams out there that will be trying to get him. We are not a SB destination, but I have noted that Pace has a style that appeals to most players. He didn't do well last year, but I think he has more ammunition to try and reel them in this year.

Of course, it all depends on who the other team is, how much they are willing to pay and what the players priorities are. If they are strictly looking for coin and don't care where they go, there is only one way to sign them. I just can't wait for this to kick off.

I'm only tossing out possibilities.  AJ ended up betting on himself on a one year deal due somewhat to his lingering injuries as a Bear.  Maclin parlayed one outstanding year in Philly into a 5 year deal with KC then his production declined every year since.  Adams has played in 59 out of 64 games since his rookie year.  He's yet to have a 1000 yard season but his catch % is over 60% so he's been both available and dependable.

Given the circumstances and two of our current WRs coming off of season ending injuries how far would you stretch for Robinson?  Is he a guy you'd give $40 mil plus in guaranteed $$$ to or is $20-$30 mil more like it?  Or would you offer a one year deal and for how much?