Post by brasilbear on Aug 31, 2016 13:59:10 GMT -6
Part 1 of 3 articles (last two not online yet)
Using their own stat (DVOA--which measure success per play as its metric) they are trying to see what makes a Super Bowl winner.
This first article looked at balanced teams v unbalanced teams. Nothing here we didn't know. I'm interested in the next two articles that will focus directly on OFF and DEF.
A few quotes:
Most of the dominant units that carried teams to championships were not built in one season. It can take years to put that type of talent together. There is also the idea of "learning to win" in the playoffs, where the intensity and importance of each moment is intensified...So it makes sense that most of these Super Bowl teams were relevant in previous seasons as well. Twenty-one of the winners and 18 of the losers were in the playoffs in the previous season...Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, but three times is a pattern. Nearly three-quarters of these Super Bowl teams were relevant for three-plus seasons. While some teams may be able to catch lightning in a bottle, getting to the Super Bowl is usually just a great achievement for a team that has already done good things in past seasons.
Winning the Super Bowl is a process, and most teams will not succeed by skipping steps. Signing a bunch of free agents is not likely to turn your 6-10 finish into hoisting the Lombardi Trophy the next year -- though it might in a couple of years, if you continue to build in the draft and make some other good choices. When I start to write a team's essay in Football Outsiders Almanac, I first consider what kind of team we are looking at. If it's a Jeff Fisher special that is always stuck near 8-8, then I focus on what the team needs to do to make the playoffs. Don't worry about the Super Bowl. Advance one tier and make the playoffs. If I was writing about Marvin Lewis, who can get Cincinnati to the playoffs but never win there, then I would focus on finishing games in January against the better competition. Take one step at a time. Respect the process.
So much has to go right for a team to win one Super Bowl, including health and some good luck or fortuitous bounces of the football. But the teams that win have already put in a lot of work to get to the point where they have a shot at the championship.
Using their own stat (DVOA--which measure success per play as its metric) they are trying to see what makes a Super Bowl winner.
This first article looked at balanced teams v unbalanced teams. Nothing here we didn't know. I'm interested in the next two articles that will focus directly on OFF and DEF.
A few quotes:
Most of the dominant units that carried teams to championships were not built in one season. It can take years to put that type of talent together. There is also the idea of "learning to win" in the playoffs, where the intensity and importance of each moment is intensified...So it makes sense that most of these Super Bowl teams were relevant in previous seasons as well. Twenty-one of the winners and 18 of the losers were in the playoffs in the previous season...Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, but three times is a pattern. Nearly three-quarters of these Super Bowl teams were relevant for three-plus seasons. While some teams may be able to catch lightning in a bottle, getting to the Super Bowl is usually just a great achievement for a team that has already done good things in past seasons.
Winning the Super Bowl is a process, and most teams will not succeed by skipping steps. Signing a bunch of free agents is not likely to turn your 6-10 finish into hoisting the Lombardi Trophy the next year -- though it might in a couple of years, if you continue to build in the draft and make some other good choices. When I start to write a team's essay in Football Outsiders Almanac, I first consider what kind of team we are looking at. If it's a Jeff Fisher special that is always stuck near 8-8, then I focus on what the team needs to do to make the playoffs. Don't worry about the Super Bowl. Advance one tier and make the playoffs. If I was writing about Marvin Lewis, who can get Cincinnati to the playoffs but never win there, then I would focus on finishing games in January against the better competition. Take one step at a time. Respect the process.
So much has to go right for a team to win one Super Bowl, including health and some good luck or fortuitous bounces of the football. But the teams that win have already put in a lot of work to get to the point where they have a shot at the championship.
