Screw it. I did a little research for all you guys who believe drafting a rookie even in the top 10 of the first round is going to guarantee you a guy who will play better than Brax in 2025, or even 2028.
Case in point: Ikem Ekwonu. Draft 6th overall in first round of 2022 draft. Got $27.5 million contract.
Braxton Jones drafted 5th round in 2022. Got $3.95 million contract.
So how have they done for the last three years? Ekwonu has 32 penalties and Brax has 26.
Ekwonu has give up 18 sacks. Brax has given up only 9. Ekwonu has 372 more snaps due to Brax's neck injury last year, so I calculated their rates:
If it makes you feel better I can change my arbitrary $20M to $17M?
Either way I wouldn't give him a second contract.
Why do you discount the significance of giving up pressures? Pressures break up plays, cause stupid decisions to happen and even turnovers. In some cases they're just as bad and sometimes worse than giving up a sack.
The idea is to give Caleb a clean pocket to work with and protect his blindside at LT.
Did you read what I said about “pressure”? A rusher can get close to a QB without disrupting his ability to complete the pass without a lot of scrambling around. That will go down statistically as a “pressure’. It is not a completely bullshit statistic, but should be taken with a grain of salt. On most plays, it is not nearly as consequential as penalties for holding or sacks.
If Brax continues to play at or better than his current level, he will get paid. Poles let Monty and Smith go, so it wouldn’t surprise me. Contrary to Ric, he is well above “average” by any reasonable standard.
I have no problem spending high draft picks on offensive linemen (and hope they do next year). The upside is having a young low-mileage player on a cheap rookie contract. The downside is that usually there are 1 or more seasons where the guy will be learning the game at the NFL level. If it is a good player he can still be really decent (maybe even better than that) the first year or two as he gets better and better. My favorite center from last year's draft was Zach Frazier from West Virginia. He slid almost to the 3rd round and the Steelers drafted him. He was a day-1 starter. I don't follow the Steelers, but I've read multiple articles about how Frazier is tearing it up at Center this season as a rookie. He has not allowed a single sack through 6 games so far. Not one. And his pass-pro score is decent at 63.8. His run blocking is a mind boggling 84.1. They say he is an absolute animal blocking, a holy terror beating up D linemen. They say he's just one savage dude. Can you imagine what our OL would be like right now with him at C, and on a rookie deal for 4 years?
Did you read what I said about “pressure”? A rusher can get close to a QB without disrupting his ability to complete the pass without a lot of scrambling around. That will go down statistically as a “pressure’. It is not a completely bullshit statistic, but should be taken with a grain of salt. On most plays, it is not nearly as consequential as penalties for holding or sacks.
If Brax continues to play at or better than his current level, he will get paid. Poles let Monty and Smith go, so it wouldn’t surprise me. Contrary to Ric, he is well above “average” by any reasonable standard.
I have no problem spending high draft picks on offensive linemen (and hope they do next year). The upside is having a young low-mileage player on a cheap rookie contract. The downside is that usually there are 1 or more seasons where the guy will be learning the game at the NFL level. If it is a good player he can still be really decent (maybe even better than that) the first year or two as he gets better and better. My favorite center from last year's draft was Zach Frazier from West Virginia. He slid almost to the 3rd round and the Steelers drafted him. He was a day-1 starter. I don't follow the Steelers, but I've read multiple articles about how Frazier is tearing it up at Center this season as a rookie. He has not allowed a single sack through 6 games so far. Not one. And his pass-pro score is decent at 63.8. His run blocking is a mind boggling 84.1. They say he is an absolute animal blocking, a holy terror beating up D linemen. They say he's just one savage dude. Can you imagine what our OL would be like right now with him at C, and on a rookie deal for 4 years?
I see this as a good argument for drafting a center in the first round instead of LT, especially if Bears are drafting around #20 or even lower. You can get a good center there, but not likely a LT as good as Brax.
I have no problem spending high draft picks on offensive linemen (and hope they do next year). The upside is having a young low-mileage player on a cheap rookie contract. The downside is that usually there are 1 or more seasons where the guy will be learning the game at the NFL level. If it is a good player he can still be really decent (maybe even better than that) the first year or two as he gets better and better. My favorite center from last year's draft was Zach Frazier from West Virginia. He slid almost to the 3rd round and the Steelers drafted him. He was a day-1 starter. I don't follow the Steelers, but I've read multiple articles about how Frazier is tearing it up at Center this season as a rookie. He has not allowed a single sack through 6 games so far. Not one. And his pass-pro score is decent at 63.8. His run blocking is a mind boggling 84.1. They say he is an absolute animal blocking, a holy terror beating up D linemen. They say he's just one savage dude. Can you imagine what our OL would be like right now with him at C, and on a rookie deal for 4 years?
I see this as a good argument for drafting a center in the first round instead of LT, especially if Bears are drafting around #20 or even lower. You can get a good center there, but not likely a LT as good as Brax.
Centers seem to be a great R.O.I. pick due to the fact the best ones can usually be drafted in the 2nd round. Frazier was at #51 overall in the draft. This year's two top centers are projected as 2nd round picks. And my early favorite is Georgia's Jared Wilson who is projected as a 3rd round pick... but every different draft source seems to have these guys listed differently. This one is from Walter Football (LINK). So the actual draft order for centers could be very different.
This is why I do get frustrated with the Bears regarding the C position. Compared with may of the other team positions, the C is fairly easy to get a great one. And they can play for 10 or more seasons. The return on that kind of draft investment is amazingly good. Why wouldn't you fix the C position before this? LT is much more difficult to fix and much more costly in draft resources. And it's so much more difficult to get a good one.
I see this as a good argument for drafting a center in the first round instead of LT, especially if Bears are drafting around #20 or even lower. You can get a good center there, but not likely a LT as good as Brax.
Centers seem to be a great R.O.I. pick due to the fact the best ones can usually be drafted in the 2nd round. Frazier was at #51 overall in the draft. This year's two top centers are projected as 2nd round picks. And my early favorite is Georgia's Jared Wilson who is projected as a 3rd round pick... but every different draft source seems to have these guys listed differently. This one is from Walter Football (LINK). So the actual draft order for centers could be very different.
This is why I do get frustrated with the Bears regarding the C position. Compared with may of the other team positions, the C is fairly easy to get a great one. And they can play for 10 or more seasons. The return on that kind of draft investment is amazingly good. Why wouldn't you fix the C position before this? LT is much more difficult to fix and much more costly in draft resources. And it's so much more difficult to get a good one.
It gets down to whether you want to gamble that the center you want will still be there late second and how good he is compared to the top guard on your board. I’m not drafting LT in 2025, unless Brax craps the bed, as you say, for the remainder of the season. If his stats stay as good or better than Wright, clearly the IOL should be higher priority.
Centers seem to be a great R.O.I. pick due to the fact the best ones can usually be drafted in the 2nd round. Frazier was at #51 overall in the draft. This year's two top centers are projected as 2nd round picks. And my early favorite is Georgia's Jared Wilson who is projected as a 3rd round pick... but every different draft source seems to have these guys listed differently. This one is from Walter Football (LINK). So the actual draft order for centers could be very different.
This is why I do get frustrated with the Bears regarding the C position. Compared with may of the other team positions, the C is fairly easy to get a great one. And they can play for 10 or more seasons. The return on that kind of draft investment is amazingly good. Why wouldn't you fix the C position before this? LT is much more difficult to fix and much more costly in draft resources. And it's so much more difficult to get a good one.
It gets down to whether you want to gamble that the center you want will still be there late second and how good he is compared to the top guard on your board. I’m not drafting LT in 2025, unless Brax craps the bed, as you say, for the remainder of the season. If his stats stay as good or better than Wright, clearly the IOL should be higher priority.
Maybe that is the best route. I have no clue. Speaking of having no clue, I go back and forth on Braxton Jones. He is a great athlete, and also he comes across as a very bright young man... sharp guy mentally. He has great quickness and can get out to the 2nd level with ease on plays. But he does struggle with bull rushes. I just don't get that. You'd think that would be easier to clean up than most of the other issues OL struggle with. Quickness, fast-twitchy stuff, high football IQ... those are things you really can't improve. Not by much anyway. But strength/technique against a bull rush (I would think anyway) would be something fixable. He is 6 games into his 3rd season. Hopefully he finishes these last 11 games looking like a player worth keeping at LT.
Brax has looked better in recent games. And he only had the one game where he looked totally bad... and that was uncharacteristic bad for him. Maybe he was playing with some nagging injury or something. He also cleaned up the penalties and hasn't had any in a few games now. The entire OL looked rough in the beginning of the season so it wasn't only him having troubles.
Top LT's are getting $25 to $26 million dollars a year right now. While I'd love to have the best at every position on the team, that is not going to happen. If Brax is an average LT, not a bad one but a decent guy in that 12th to 16th ranking range. Then it may make sense to keep him with an appropriate level contract... looking over the LT contracts for this year, that would be somewhere around $18 mil/year for that level of LT. Maybe that route makes sense if Brax finishes these last 11 games looking as good as he has these most recent past 2 games.
I have a feeling we won't be drafting very high this year in the draft... maybe in the middle of the round area. I'd be tempted to use that 1st round pick on a guard if there is one that looks special. Then with that high 2nd round pick we have, grab the best C in the draft. Let Pryor and Murray fight it out for the other G position, assuming Jenkins is a goner next year.
A lot of 1st round LTs are such physical specimen freaks that they can make up for a lot with their power. Which is why they go in the first round.
You can live with some of the rookie bumps if the guy is a wall between the pass rusher and the QB.
Okay, and I can give you plenty of examples on the other side of the coin. Paris Johnson was the hot shot LT in 2023. He had 8 sacks and 12 penalties his rookie year. We could have that in 2025, which would be way worse than anything Brax has done.
As far as physical size and power, you won’t find many equal to Darnell Wright. Yet his rookie year was — what should I say? — something less than spectacular. I think even Ric would agree.
So then - are we going to pretend GMs have no input in who they draft? Because if I remember right, Paris Johnson Jr was considered the top prospect in a very weak draft for LT, and overall was over inflated because of the lack of talent. Meanwhile, you have a ton of linemen who were all higher rated than Johnson overall that came out in the 2024 draft and are mostly killing it.
You don't just plug and play a guy because he's what's available when you need to draft one. Scouting and GM smarts matter as well.
I have questions about Warren myself. I was very much in his camp until he developed what I think is almost an obsession on a lakefront stadium. It is almost like he is living in a dream world where he is repeating what he considers his big success in Minnesota.
+1 LOL, he's beginning to remind me of that old movie, "The Caine Mutany" where Captain Queeg wanted a quart of strawberries so badly that he has a paranoia mental breakdown... that line from the old movie, “Ah, but the strawberries!” could be an apt description of Warren now, "Ah, but the Lakefront"
I still think (hope) its all by design to get a better deal from Arlington Heights.
Okay, and I can give you plenty of examples on the other side of the coin. Paris Johnson was the hot shot LT in 2023. He had 8 sacks and 12 penalties his rookie year. We could have that in 2025, which would be way worse than anything Brax has done.
As far as physical size and power, you won’t find many equal to Darnell Wright. Yet his rookie year was — what should I say? — something less than spectacular. I think even Ric would agree.
So then - are we going to pretend GMs have no input in who they draft? Because if I remember right, Paris Johnson Jr was considered the top prospect in a very weak draft for LT, and overall was over inflated because of the lack of talent. Meanwhile, you have a ton of linemen who were all higher rated than Johnson overall that came out in the 2024 draft and are mostly killing it.
You don't just plug and play a guy because he's what's available when you need to draft one. Scouting and GM smarts matter as well.
Right, so why the hell should Poles go into the 2025 draft with the idea that he’s gotta draft whatever LT is still on the board when the Bears are on the clock with the 20-something pick? It’s ludicrous.
It gets down to whether you want to gamble that the center you want will still be there late second and how good he is compared to the top guard on your board. I’m not drafting LT in 2025, unless Brax craps the bed, as you say, for the remainder of the season. If his stats stay as good or better than Wright, clearly the IOL should be higher priority.
Maybe that is the best route. I have no clue. Speaking of having no clue, I go back and forth on Braxton Jones. He is a great athlete, and also he comes across as a very bright young man... sharp guy mentally. He has great quickness and can get out to the 2nd level with ease on plays. But he does struggle with bull rushes. I just don't get that. You'd think that would be easier to clean up than most of the other issues OL struggle with. Quickness, fast-twitchy stuff, high football IQ... those are things you really can't improve. Not by much anyway. But strength/technique against a bull rush (I would think anyway) would be something fixable. He is 6 games into his 3rd season. Hopefully he finishes these last 11 games looking like a player worth keeping at LT.
Brax has looked better in recent games. And he only had the one game where he looked totally bad... and that was uncharacteristic bad for him. Maybe he was playing with some nagging injury or something. He also cleaned up the penalties and hasn't had any in a few games now. The entire OL looked rough in the beginning of the season so it wasn't only him having troubles.
Top LT's are getting $25 to $26 million dollars a year right now. While I'd love to have the best at every position on the team, that is not going to happen. If Brax is an average LT, not a bad one but a decent guy in that 12th to 16th ranking range. Then it may make sense to keep him with an appropriate level contract... looking over the LT contracts for this year, that would be somewhere around $18 mil/year for that level of LT. Maybe that route makes sense if Brax finishes these last 11 games looking as good as he has these most recent past 2 games.
I have a feeling we won't be drafting very high this year in the draft... maybe in the middle of the round area. I'd be tempted to use that 1st round pick on a guard if there is one that looks special. Then with that high 2nd round pick we have, grab the best C in the draft. Let Pryor and Murray fight it out for the other G position, assuming Jenkins is a goner next year.
I’m fine with that plan. Of course, free agency could change it. Looking at Brax physiology, these guys who are immovable have a lot of their body weight in the lower half — legs and butt — creating a low center of gravity. Brax is the opposite. He does not have thick legs, and he’s got the smallest butt of any LT. That is great for blocking speed rushers and leading sweeps, but a disadvantage with bull rushers. I’m guessing there’s a limit to how much weight training can modify a guy’s God-given physique— butkus would know more about that than me. On the other side of the line, we have the opposite. Wright is as big and strong as a bull, but will always be challenged by elite speed rushers. For now, I’m okay with both of them on my 2025 Super Bowl ready team if we can have studs at the interior positions.