Post by ptisme on Aug 19, 2024 8:50:35 GMT -6
JABF: "We need ptisme to give us the scoop on this year's GB team. I always appreciate his info each year."
These used to be easy a few years ago. I always knew the offense would be good with Rodgers and a set of known players around him. I always knew we had a terrible "bend but don't break(but they always broke at the worst time)" defensive coordinator. The Bears and Lions were awful and the Vikings were meh. Easy pick: double digit wins and a crushing loss in the playoffs. But now the Lions are really good and the Bears have the potential to be really good. Lots of variables in this division this year and no one knows who will come out on top. Lot's has to go right for all four teams.
For the Packers things have drastically changed the last two years. Gone are the old, slow skill position players that were buddies with the QB. Gone is the crappy, passive DC. This is now the youngest team in the league with tons of potential thanks to some great recent drafts. We have a QB that had an amazing second half of the year (will it translate?) and young players all over the place that developed as the season went on. So i will base this review mostly on how the team played the second half with the assumption that some of the players will take a step forward and some a step back. Green Bay has the youngest team in the league so previewing them and betting on them is almost like investing in a volatile penny stock. Could they be the next Tesla or flounder ala Crispy Cream? Also we can't predict injuries which could drastically affect outcomes.
A. Areas for concern: 1. Backup quarterback: Both back up quarterbacks looked terrible in Denver(keeping in mind Denver played their starters into the second quarter and GB rested it's top 31 players). The rookie Pratt has looked good in camp prior to this week, but do you want to go into the season with a rookie 7th rounder as your backup? They probably need to trade for a vet and hope they can put Pratt on the PS.
B. Kicker: The competition at kicker kind of looks like "we'll take the least crappy kicker in camp as our guy". They are both around 80 percent in camp. Not good enough for a team with playoff aspirations. A missed FG cost them the playoff game last year. It's possible the starting kicker week one isn't on the team currently.
C. Special teams: GB always has poor special teams and they went out and paid Rich Bisaccia as the highest paid ST coordinator in the league 2 years ago. Last season would have been nice to work into acceptable area but it didn't happen. The GM has made the ST a priority and has actually been keeping more players that are ST only rather than just throwing developmental prospects on teams. Honestly I'd be pleased with the 17th ranked ST in the league. I'm not asking you to win us games just stop losing us games. This team seems to have a special teams curse.
D. Backup offensive tackle: The packers starting offensive line is set. But the backup tackles they were developing haven't been good. If one of the tackles get injured they are going to have to move Jenkins out to play tackle which will mess up two spots(they do have decent interior depth). They drafted Jordan Morgan in the first round but he looks to have won the RG spot. They may have to give him reps at tackle.
Defense:
The Packers hired Jeff Hafley to run the defense this year. Previously under Barry they played a ton of quarters and zone. Miscommunication was rampant and they just could never get off the field and turnovers were few. Barry would always point to the Packers being top 10 in scoring defense but it was only because other teams partook in 8-10 min drives every time. The run defense was historically bad. Last season the packers had the worst safety combo in the league which didn't help matters. So what's changed and why are we all excited up here in cheese land?
Hafley believes in an attack style defense with CB's that excel in man to man defense. This wouldn't have worked last year with our previous safeties. Enter Xavier Mckinny. He excels at playing both deep and near the line of scrimmage. They also drafted a couple promising safeties including Javon Bullard who has had a good camp. Hafley wants the safeties to be interchangeable so the offense doesn't know who's coming up and who's staying back. They have that now.
On paper this looks to be a really good defense with unending pass rushers(Gary, Preston Smith, Enagbare and VanNess), middle linebackers that can absolutely attack and fly(Quay Walker and Edge Cooper), and very talented defensive backs. You'll see a ton of single high. This style defense will be susceptible to big plays but should also be able to create big turnovers and get off the field on third down. On paper they have young studs at every level of this defense (emphasis: ON PAPER).
Offense: The discussion has to start with Jordan Love. He was incredible the second half of last year. Probably the best in the league over the last 8 games (yes there was the SFO playoff hiccup in the monsoon). It's hard to imagine he'd take a step back with the same personnel around him and coaching. The game really slowed down for him last year starting with the Pittsburgh game. He's gotten really good at reading defenses, moving LB's and Safeties with his eyes, and improved cadence. His deep ball (struggled last year) looks to be amazing in camp. The concern on offense will be the running game. MLF wants to be a run first offense but the starting line (and backups) are more finesse and are better at pass blocking. This wasn't a problem when Aaron Jones was healthy because he could run through a sliver of day light. But Jones is gone and we just don't know how Josh Jacobs and Marshawn Lloyd will look in this offense (can they even stay healthy?). The passing offense is a different story. This team is stacked with playmakers at both WR and TE. GB doesn't have a Justin Jefferson at WR but their 4th best receiver is going to be way better than anyone else's 4th best DB. As previously mention the Oline is amazing at pass blocking. I believe the offense will put up a lot of points and Love will be in the MVP conversation.
It's really amazing Love was able to throw for 32 touchdowns and 4,000 yards last season when he spent the majority of the game sitting on the bench watching a gassed and confused defense give up long drive after long drive. His numbers have the potential to sky rocket this year with more opportunities. Look at it this way: If GB's attack defense is great they will get turnovers and stop people on downs and the offense gets the ball back quickly. IF GB's aggressive style new defense is terrible and gives up big chunk plays and easy scores Love gets the ball back. He will have way more possessions this year and the potential is there for him to put up huge numbers if he plays the way he did the last 8 games of 2024.
But like all four teams, things have to go right. We need to avoid the injury bug, the defense needs to be what we think it is on paper, young players need to keep taking steps forward, and can we find a fucking kicker?
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