Poles playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers!
Jan 3, 2024 7:23:34 GMT -6
AlexM, shark86, and 2 more like this
Post by butkus3595 on Jan 3, 2024 7:23:34 GMT -6
I found this interesting tweet from Nick Whalen analyzing the scenario the Bears have to work through regarding Fields and the #1 pick. It illuminated some things for me, including the idea that resetting the QB salary clock is some sort of huge savings. Give it a read:
Justin Fields vs drafting a rookie QB 1.01 debate
This will be quite long, but I believe you will learn something.
1) $$$ and resetting for the rookie QB contract
Fields will be in year 4 of a rookie contract in 2024
vs
Rookie QB will be in year 1 of the contract in 2024
-They both will have a 5th-year option
In this thought experiment, we'll assume a rookie QB is worth a 2nd NFL contract. The contractual disadvantage is paying Fields the 2nd contract 3 years earlier than paying the rookie, but both would get paid.
-However, if the QB is the 1.01 draft pick. Then a rookie contract would be double the $$$ than Justin Fields had to sign.
-If a 1st round player makes a Pro Bowl(in years 1-3) the 5th year option is raised about $8 million. Fields did not make a Pro Bowl but this is an unknown for the rookie QB.
Estimate: Justin Fields gets a 4-year contract extension is roughly $45M per year. Better than Daniel Jones, but not Justin Herbert level.
The difference between the estimated Justin Fields extension vs rookie 1.01 contract:
2024 = Fields would make $1M less than the rookie 2025 = $16.3M(Fields' 5th year option)
2026 = $35M
2027 = $32.9M
2028 = $15-$22M(against the rookies 5th yr option)
2029 = Rookie QB signed extension > Fields' extension signed years prior(contracts increase over time)
Summary: Justin Fields' extension would be more expensive than the rookie's contract in 3 of the next 6 years.
2) The Trade Package
Staying with Fields would mean trading the 1.01.
Drafting a rookie would mean trading Fields.
Last year, Chicago traded the 1.01 for:
DJ Moore(1st value)
9th overall
2023 2nd rounder
2024 1st rounder(1.01 overall)
2025 2nd rounder
The Sam Darnold trade netted:
2nd rounder
4th rounder
6th rounder
We can agree that Caleb Williams/Drake Maye are better prospects than Bryce Young/CJ Stroud, which would increase the price of the 1.01 versus last year. The price for the 1.01 would increase if Chicago traded with a team with the 1.05 pick or later.
One aspect to remember with trading the 1.01 is that team will likely take time to win with a rookie QB. Acquiring future 1st round picks from a team with a rookie QB will likely net more top 10 picks.
1st overall pick QBs and the teams draft pick the following year:
Bryce Young = 1.01
Trevor Lawrence = 1.01
Joe Burrow = 1.05
Kyler Murray = 1.08
Baker Mayfield = 1.17(traded it for OBJ)
Jared Goff = 1.05
Jameis Winston = 1.11
Andrew Luck = 1.24
Cam Newton = 1.09
Sam Bradford = 1.14
Matt Stafford = 1.02
JaMarcus Russell = 1.04
Alex Smith = 1.06
Overall, the rough difference between trading Fields or trading the 1.01 is at least the value of three 1st round picks(two of which are likely to be top 10 draft picks).
3) $$$ difference including the trade package
The one aspect of a trade back that's getting overlooked is the $$$ saved from the positional player standpoint.
Lets assume that Chicago would get a return of three 1st round picks for the 1.01 and two of those 1sts were the 1.05(averaging of a top 10 pick) and the 1.20 pick.
2023 1.05 pick Devon Witherspoon = $7.75 million per year for 4 years(I'm using averages to make this more simple) + 5th year option of $13-$22 million per year.
2023 1.20 pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba = $3.6 million per year
7.75 x 2 = 15.5 + 3.6 = $19.1 million
$52.5 for 5th year options
(I'll be using 2024 free agency numbers from @pff_Brad for these examples. Also, follow Brad. Very smart guy)
I'll select not the best free agents, but still solid to good players to make this realistic.
WR Mike Evans projected at $23 million/yr
DT Leonard Williams projected at $17.25 million/yr
CB Chidobe Awuzie projected at $13.75 million/yr
Cost of signing three free agents = $54 million/yr
Cost of three 1st round picks = $19.1 million/yr
Difference is $34.9 million over 4 years
-Which is actually MORE of a savings than the difference between the estimated Justin Fields extension vs 1.01 rookie QB contract I discussed earlier.
4) Injuries, retirement, off the field, etc
This is the downside to athletics, life, accidents, and mistakes.
Only 12 NFL QBs have started all 16 games in 2023.
8 started every game in 2022
11 in 2021
-Some may have sat out the final game for playoff purposes, but the best ability is availability.
Players could get suspended, have legal issues, or just decide to retire.
This is one of the aspects that favors the trade package(multiple players) > rookie QB.
-It's better to not have all of your eggs in one basket for this category.
5) Locker room, Leadership, and Momentum.
The Bears locker room has verbally supported Justin Fields and wants him back as their leader. All of the pre-draft rumors of Fields work ethic were not proven to be factual. Removing a QB and leader from a team for a perceived upgrade may or may not work, but chemistry with teammates/locker room/culture is on the upswing in Chicago right now.
Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 games, which includes two double digit leads they lost in the 4th Q. Do you chance that positive momentum with a QB change?
6) Team building philosophy
It has been long argued that a team "Has to get an elite QB to win in the NFL"
-The elite QBs of the NFL (Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Burrow) have all had struggles this season
-Meanwhile, building up the team around the QB has worked in SF, DET, DAL, PHI, BAL, MIA. I'm not saying those QBs aren't good, but I don't think most of them would be placed above the four I mentioned above.
So why are the best QBs not the best teams this year?
I have two potential theories
1) The mega QB contracts have stripped away assets able to be spent on the rest of the roster.
2) The NFL is playing much more 2 high safety coverage, which takes away some of the QBs abilities to make big plays and forces the rest of the team to execute.
-It could be a combination of both as well
-But when looking at the best teams in the NFL this year, they have better defenses, OL/DL, and weapons than the top QBs in the NFL.
So should teams be trying to build in a way where the QB carries the team or build up the best overall team?
7) Playing the odds
Fields has been a middle of the road overall QB since the middle of 2022-now, but was below average prior to that. He could improve, but we know at least he's not Zach Wilson/Mac Jones level bad. A Rookie QB has a range of outcomes to be elite or a bust. I'm sure most dismiss the idea that either of these rookie QBs wouldn't be great, but we generally overrate every young player.
A Rookie QB could be among starting QBs in the NFL:
This will be quite long, but I believe you will learn something.
1) $$$ and resetting for the rookie QB contract
Fields will be in year 4 of a rookie contract in 2024
vs
Rookie QB will be in year 1 of the contract in 2024
-They both will have a 5th-year option
In this thought experiment, we'll assume a rookie QB is worth a 2nd NFL contract. The contractual disadvantage is paying Fields the 2nd contract 3 years earlier than paying the rookie, but both would get paid.
-However, if the QB is the 1.01 draft pick. Then a rookie contract would be double the $$$ than Justin Fields had to sign.
-If a 1st round player makes a Pro Bowl(in years 1-3) the 5th year option is raised about $8 million. Fields did not make a Pro Bowl but this is an unknown for the rookie QB.
Estimate: Justin Fields gets a 4-year contract extension is roughly $45M per year. Better than Daniel Jones, but not Justin Herbert level.
The difference between the estimated Justin Fields extension vs rookie 1.01 contract:
2024 = Fields would make $1M less than the rookie 2025 = $16.3M(Fields' 5th year option)
2026 = $35M
2027 = $32.9M
2028 = $15-$22M(against the rookies 5th yr option)
2029 = Rookie QB signed extension > Fields' extension signed years prior(contracts increase over time)
Summary: Justin Fields' extension would be more expensive than the rookie's contract in 3 of the next 6 years.
2) The Trade Package
Staying with Fields would mean trading the 1.01.
Drafting a rookie would mean trading Fields.
Last year, Chicago traded the 1.01 for:
DJ Moore(1st value)
9th overall
2023 2nd rounder
2024 1st rounder(1.01 overall)
2025 2nd rounder
The Sam Darnold trade netted:
2nd rounder
4th rounder
6th rounder
We can agree that Caleb Williams/Drake Maye are better prospects than Bryce Young/CJ Stroud, which would increase the price of the 1.01 versus last year. The price for the 1.01 would increase if Chicago traded with a team with the 1.05 pick or later.
One aspect to remember with trading the 1.01 is that team will likely take time to win with a rookie QB. Acquiring future 1st round picks from a team with a rookie QB will likely net more top 10 picks.
1st overall pick QBs and the teams draft pick the following year:
Bryce Young = 1.01
Trevor Lawrence = 1.01
Joe Burrow = 1.05
Kyler Murray = 1.08
Baker Mayfield = 1.17(traded it for OBJ)
Jared Goff = 1.05
Jameis Winston = 1.11
Andrew Luck = 1.24
Cam Newton = 1.09
Sam Bradford = 1.14
Matt Stafford = 1.02
JaMarcus Russell = 1.04
Alex Smith = 1.06
Overall, the rough difference between trading Fields or trading the 1.01 is at least the value of three 1st round picks(two of which are likely to be top 10 draft picks).
3) $$$ difference including the trade package
The one aspect of a trade back that's getting overlooked is the $$$ saved from the positional player standpoint.
Lets assume that Chicago would get a return of three 1st round picks for the 1.01 and two of those 1sts were the 1.05(averaging of a top 10 pick) and the 1.20 pick.
2023 1.05 pick Devon Witherspoon = $7.75 million per year for 4 years(I'm using averages to make this more simple) + 5th year option of $13-$22 million per year.
2023 1.20 pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba = $3.6 million per year
7.75 x 2 = 15.5 + 3.6 = $19.1 million
$52.5 for 5th year options
(I'll be using 2024 free agency numbers from @pff_Brad for these examples. Also, follow Brad. Very smart guy)
I'll select not the best free agents, but still solid to good players to make this realistic.
WR Mike Evans projected at $23 million/yr
DT Leonard Williams projected at $17.25 million/yr
CB Chidobe Awuzie projected at $13.75 million/yr
Cost of signing three free agents = $54 million/yr
Cost of three 1st round picks = $19.1 million/yr
Difference is $34.9 million over 4 years
-Which is actually MORE of a savings than the difference between the estimated Justin Fields extension vs 1.01 rookie QB contract I discussed earlier.
4) Injuries, retirement, off the field, etc
This is the downside to athletics, life, accidents, and mistakes.
Only 12 NFL QBs have started all 16 games in 2023.
8 started every game in 2022
11 in 2021
-Some may have sat out the final game for playoff purposes, but the best ability is availability.
Players could get suspended, have legal issues, or just decide to retire.
This is one of the aspects that favors the trade package(multiple players) > rookie QB.
-It's better to not have all of your eggs in one basket for this category.
5) Locker room, Leadership, and Momentum.
The Bears locker room has verbally supported Justin Fields and wants him back as their leader. All of the pre-draft rumors of Fields work ethic were not proven to be factual. Removing a QB and leader from a team for a perceived upgrade may or may not work, but chemistry with teammates/locker room/culture is on the upswing in Chicago right now.
Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 games, which includes two double digit leads they lost in the 4th Q. Do you chance that positive momentum with a QB change?
6) Team building philosophy
It has been long argued that a team "Has to get an elite QB to win in the NFL"
-The elite QBs of the NFL (Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Burrow) have all had struggles this season
-Meanwhile, building up the team around the QB has worked in SF, DET, DAL, PHI, BAL, MIA. I'm not saying those QBs aren't good, but I don't think most of them would be placed above the four I mentioned above.
So why are the best QBs not the best teams this year?
I have two potential theories
1) The mega QB contracts have stripped away assets able to be spent on the rest of the roster.
2) The NFL is playing much more 2 high safety coverage, which takes away some of the QBs abilities to make big plays and forces the rest of the team to execute.
-It could be a combination of both as well
-But when looking at the best teams in the NFL this year, they have better defenses, OL/DL, and weapons than the top QBs in the NFL.
So should teams be trying to build in a way where the QB carries the team or build up the best overall team?
7) Playing the odds
Fields has been a middle of the road overall QB since the middle of 2022-now, but was below average prior to that. He could improve, but we know at least he's not Zach Wilson/Mac Jones level bad. A Rookie QB has a range of outcomes to be elite or a bust. I'm sure most dismiss the idea that either of these rookie QBs wouldn't be great, but we generally overrate every young player.
A Rookie QB could be among starting QBs in the NFL:
Elite
Good
Average
Below Average
Bust
Most recent top 3 overall NFL draft picks at QB:
Young
Stroud
Lawrence
Wilson
Lance
Burrow
Murray
Baker
Darnold
Trubisky
Goff
Wentz
Winston
Bortles
Luck
RGIII
Newton
Bradford
Stafford
Ryan
Russell
etc
You can determine the odds of a 2024 rookie QB after assessing that list.
However, I would say a rookie QB's odds of being in the good to elite tiers are better than Fields' based on some of his NFL struggles.
Now calculate the trade package:
2024 top 10 NFL Draft pick(likely top 5)
+
2025 top 10 NFL Draft pick
+
2026 middle of the 1st NFL Draft pick
The likelihood is all three draft picks won't hit, but two top 10 draft picks have increased odds.
Could assume something like:
1 = Very good player
1 = Good player
1 = bust
8) The bottom line with odds
Lets look at how different scenarios would look if Chicago moved on from Justin Fields:
Rookie QB plays worse than Fields =
-This is a major LOSS for Chicago
Rookie QB plays the same as Fields =
-This is a still a loss for Chicago because while the QB play is the same, they'll miss out on extra team production from the trade package(for the 1.01)
Rookie QB plays slightly better than Fields =
-This still would be a loss because the three 1st round picks package would likely make up for the slightly worse QB play
Rookie QB plays like a top 5 NFL QB =
-Major win for Chicago
Rookie QB plays like a top 10 QB and Fields plays like a top 10 QB for another team =
-This would be a major loss for Chicago in terms of the fanbase and point to coaching
Rookie QB plays like a top 10 QB and Fields plays like a QB20 or worse for another team =
-This would be a win for Chicago and felt like they made the correct decision
Other scenarios where Chicago keeps Fields:
Fields plays in QB10 range and rookie QB plays in QB10 range for another team =
-win for Chicago
Fields plays in the QB15 range and rookie QB plays in the QB10 range for another team =
-Likely doesn't feel good, but likely a push with the package of draft picks making up the difference
Fields plays in the QB15-20 range and rookie QB plays
top 5 QB for another team =
-The Bears would have a major loss and feel like a cursed QB franchise
Overall, Chicago is in a great position because either way they're setup for more success in the future with how GM Ryan Poles is building this team. They have an extra 2024 1st and 2025 2nd to help complete this roster and lots of cap space. Poles is playing the Madden franchise mode we all wish we could for an NFL team.
In the end, I'm trusting Ryan Poles with the decision.
Good
Average
Below Average
Bust
Most recent top 3 overall NFL draft picks at QB:
Young
Stroud
Lawrence
Wilson
Lance
Burrow
Murray
Baker
Darnold
Trubisky
Goff
Wentz
Winston
Bortles
Luck
RGIII
Newton
Bradford
Stafford
Ryan
Russell
etc
You can determine the odds of a 2024 rookie QB after assessing that list.
However, I would say a rookie QB's odds of being in the good to elite tiers are better than Fields' based on some of his NFL struggles.
Now calculate the trade package:
2024 top 10 NFL Draft pick(likely top 5)
+
2025 top 10 NFL Draft pick
+
2026 middle of the 1st NFL Draft pick
The likelihood is all three draft picks won't hit, but two top 10 draft picks have increased odds.
Could assume something like:
1 = Very good player
1 = Good player
1 = bust
8) The bottom line with odds
Lets look at how different scenarios would look if Chicago moved on from Justin Fields:
Rookie QB plays worse than Fields =
-This is a major LOSS for Chicago
Rookie QB plays the same as Fields =
-This is a still a loss for Chicago because while the QB play is the same, they'll miss out on extra team production from the trade package(for the 1.01)
Rookie QB plays slightly better than Fields =
-This still would be a loss because the three 1st round picks package would likely make up for the slightly worse QB play
Rookie QB plays like a top 5 NFL QB =
-Major win for Chicago
Rookie QB plays like a top 10 QB and Fields plays like a top 10 QB for another team =
-This would be a major loss for Chicago in terms of the fanbase and point to coaching
Rookie QB plays like a top 10 QB and Fields plays like a QB20 or worse for another team =
-This would be a win for Chicago and felt like they made the correct decision
Other scenarios where Chicago keeps Fields:
Fields plays in QB10 range and rookie QB plays in QB10 range for another team =
-win for Chicago
Fields plays in the QB15 range and rookie QB plays in the QB10 range for another team =
-Likely doesn't feel good, but likely a push with the package of draft picks making up the difference
Fields plays in the QB15-20 range and rookie QB plays
top 5 QB for another team =
-The Bears would have a major loss and feel like a cursed QB franchise
Overall, Chicago is in a great position because either way they're setup for more success in the future with how GM Ryan Poles is building this team. They have an extra 2024 1st and 2025 2nd to help complete this roster and lots of cap space. Poles is playing the Madden franchise mode we all wish we could for an NFL team.
In the end, I'm trusting Ryan Poles with the decision.
