The Las Vegas oddsmakers have their over/under at 60.5 as Mills draft position. That means the odds are that the Bears could just stay at 52 and still get him. Mills is wrong QB and wrong round, but it smells like Pace/Nagy are too fearful of losing in this draft that they go for the big reach.
Nothing wrong with calling it "Tier 3". He's saying Lawrence and Wilson are Tier 1 (surefire 1st 2 picks) and the Tier 2 guys are the only ones that could possibly fall past #3. He's just splitting the top-5 QBs into 2 tiers instead of 1, doesn't matter.
At this point, I suspect that Pace/Nagy are after Mond > Mills (assuming the top-5 QBs go early and are out-of-reach). Which ever of those two it is and whichever each one of us may favor, neither is worth the #20 pick and I say that knowing that QBs do tend to get "overdrafted".
Both of them are projects. Both of them have significant holes in their games.
I can understand the idea that one (or both) of them may get snagged before the Bears pick again at #52. So if that's the fear then Pace needs to make a move to get a pick in the early 2nd. I laid out a realistic scenario to do that with Jacksonville but it not's the only way. I would rather make a deal that gives away a small point advantage than stand pat at #20 and overdraft either of them.
Regardless, the #20 pick has value (as does the 5th year option it brings) so Pace better not squander it.
Nothing wrong with calling it "Tier 3". He's saying Lawrence and Wilson are Tier 1 (surefire 1st 2 picks) and the Tier 2 guys are the only ones that could possibly fall past #3. He's just splitting the top-5 QBs into 2 tiers instead of 1, doesn't matter.
At this point, I suspect that Pace/Nagy are after Mond > Mills (assuming the top-5 QBs go early and are out-of-reach). Which ever of those two it is and whichever each one of us may favor, neither is worth the #20 pick and I say that knowing that QBs do tend to get "overdrafted".
Both of them are projects. Both of them have significant holes in their games.
I can understand the idea that one (or both) of them may get snagged before the Bears pick again at #52. So if that's the fear then Pace needs to make a move to get a pick in the early 2nd. I laid out a realistic scenario to do that with Jacksonville but it not's the only way. I would rather make a deal that gives away a small point advantage than stand pat at #20 and overdraft either of them.
Regardless, the #20 pick has value (as does the 5th year option it brings) so Pace better not squander it.
They cannot afford to come out of second round without a QB. I think that is what is driving their calculation.
No risk= draft Mills in first round moderate risk= trade up in second round high risk= pick 52 in second round
I understand why you see it the opposite direction, but your job is not on the line in 2021, but theirs depends on finding a QB that they can sell to McCaskey as the potential Bears future franchise QB. They have decided that Mills is that guy, and if all the top-5 are gone early on draft night, these guys will be sweating blood and in panic mode at 20. That is what I worry about.
Nothing wrong with calling it "Tier 3". He's saying Lawrence and Wilson are Tier 1 (surefire 1st 2 picks) and the Tier 2 guys are the only ones that could possibly fall past #3. He's just splitting the top-5 QBs into 2 tiers instead of 1, doesn't matter.
At this point, I suspect that Pace/Nagy are after Mond > Mills (assuming the top-5 QBs go early and are out-of-reach). Which ever of those two it is and whichever each one of us may favor, neither is worth the #20 pick and I say that knowing that QBs do tend to get "overdrafted".
Both of them are projects. Both of them have significant holes in their games.
I can understand the idea that one (or both) of them may get snagged before the Bears pick again at #52. So if that's the fear then Pace needs to make a move to get a pick in the early 2nd. I laid out a realistic scenario to do that with Jacksonville but it not's the only way. I would rather make a deal that gives away a small point advantage than stand pat at #20 and overdraft either of them.
Regardless, the #20 pick has value (as does the 5th year option it brings) so Pace better not squander it.
They cannot afford to come out of second round without a QB. I think that is what is driving their calculation.
No risk= draft Mills in first round moderate risk= trade up in second round high risk= pick 52 in second round
I understand why you see it the opposite direction, but your job is not on the line in 2021, but theirs depends on finding a QB that they can sell to McCaskey as the potential Bears future franchise QB. They have decided that Mills is that guy, and if all the top-5 are gone early on draft night, these guys will be sweating blood and in panic mode at 20. That is what I worry about.
I hear what you are saying but...
If Pace/Nagy "job is on the line", then they shouldn't be making these picks this draft. They should have been let go in January. Neither Mills nor Mond (nor Lance nor Fields nor Jones) is gonna rescue the 2021 Bears season. Putting a gun to Pace's head in effect and telling him "you better draft Dan Marino or you're out" when he has no plausible shot at a "Tier-1 QB" is beyond dumb. Gotta give him and Nagy 3 years if you are gonna give him one. There's no point in giving him a 2nd QB pick if you aren't patient enough to see it through.
Secondly, I highly doubt Mills will get drafted before #52. The guy is a project. He has had some injuries. And he has only 11-12 college starts under his belt. He's talented but uber-raw and will need a year bare minimum on the bench before he can start. All that hurts his value and I can't see him going that early (guess I'll eat my words if he does). Mond, on the other hand, has way more college experience and less of an injury history so yeah I could easily see him going early 2nd round. It's very rare for more than 5 QBs to get drafted in the 1st.
Just want Ryan Pace to CALM DOWN and not get twitchy.
Post by brasilbear on Apr 23, 2021 11:18:28 GMT -6
1. I don't think 2021 is a make or break season for Pace/Nagy. The wheels are going to have to come off Trestman-like for them to get canned. I think we are looking at 2 years plus for both of them.
2. I'm not saying they won't draft Mills but I haven't seen anything linking them to Mills.
1. I don't think 2021 is a make or break season for Pace/Nagy. The wheels are going to have to come off Trestman-like for them to get canned. I think we are looking at 2 years plus for both of them.
2. I'm not saying they won't draft Mills but I haven't seen anything linking them to Mills.
3. I'm hoping for an OT and/or trade down.
1. I agree. No point giving Pace a 2nd bite at the QB-apple unless you have the patience to see it through. That means 2 years minimum, probably 3. Once the decision was made in January to stick with this regime, then you gotta STICK WITH it.
2. Bears weren't linked to Trubisky at all. It was all hush-hush back then. This time they have been at every QBs pro-day in a public way and DeFelippo worked out Mills personally. I think they've been linked to every QB prospect from Wilson down to Franks.
3. Me too. Those are the two most obvious choices at #20 unless there's a big run on OTs ahead of them.
1. I don't think 2021 is a make or break season for Pace/Nagy. The wheels are going to have to come off Trestman-like for them to get canned. I think we are looking at 2 years plus for both of them.
2. I'm not saying they won't draft Mills but I haven't seen anything linking them to Mills.
3. I'm hoping for an OT and/or trade down.
1. I agree. No point giving Pace a 2nd bite at the QB-apple unless you have the patience to see it through. That means 2 years minimum, probably 3. Once the decision was made in January to stick with this regime, then you gotta STICK WITH it.
2. Bears weren't linked to Trubisky at all. It was all hush-hush back then. This time they have been at every QBs pro-day in a public way and DeFelippo worked out Mills personally. I think they've been linked to every QB prospect from Wilson down to Franks.
3. Me too. Those are the two most obvious choices at #20 unless there's a big run on OTs ahead of them.
I'd prefer almost everyone other than Mills, just the lack of experience has soured me on him.
1. I agree. No point giving Pace a 2nd bite at the QB-apple unless you have the patience to see it through. That means 2 years minimum, probably 3. Once the decision was made in January to stick with this regime, then you gotta STICK WITH it.
2. Bears weren't linked to Trubisky at all. It was all hush-hush back then. This time they have been at every QBs pro-day in a public way and DeFelippo worked out Mills personally. I think they've been linked to every QB prospect from Wilson down to Franks.
3. Me too. Those are the two most obvious choices at #20 unless there's a big run on OTs ahead of them.
I'd prefer almost everyone other than Mills, just the lack of experience has soured me on him.
Fair enough. It's a legit criticism and red flag, no question. That's why no way I'd spend a 1st on him and think he will make it #52 comfortably.
For each of these guys I've read some critiques that are encouraging and also some very scathing.
Jones is un-athletic to the point that he will get massacred behind anything but an All-Pro OL. Fields runs too much and had some real clunker games last year vs Northwestern, Indiana, and Clemson Lance has only 1 year of college production and played against very weak competition at ND St. Mond can't make NFL throws outside the hashes and struggles making progressions