IMO, there is enough gap between Mond and all the QB prospects below him that I would consider drafting him in the second round and definitely the third, but none of the others until round six as a throwaway lottery ticket.
If you look at the mock drafts, there is a big gap after Sewell and Slater. The others bounce around all over the place. I am confident we can get one of them in the second round, so it is a waste to take one in first. If I am wrong, it will be clear by around #15, and I will not complain if Pace takes one, unless Bateman is still on the board at 20. Even in worst case scenario, Bears can get by with Leno and Ifedi at tackle in 2021.
IMO, there is enough gap between Mond and all the QB prospects below him that I would consider drafting him in the second round and definitely the third, but none of the others until round six as a throwaway lottery ticket.
If you look at the mock drafts, there is a big gap after Sewell and Slater. The others bounce around all over the place. I am confident we can get one of them in the second round, so it is a waste to take one in first. If I am wrong, it will be clear by around #15, and I will not complain if Pace takes one, unless Bateman is still on the board at 20. Even in worst case scenario, Bears can get by with Leno and Ifedi at tackle in 2021.
I think you are making a big mistake by assuming that mock drafts are accurate or determinative of where certain players will or should be drafted. I can assure you that they are wrong every single year. Beyond maybe the top-10 picks or so, mock drafts simply aren't accurate. By the time you get to the 2nd round, they're little more than guesswork.
I will be shocked if there aren't 4-5 OTs taken in the 1st round and 6-7 by the time the Bears 2nd round pick rolls around.
IMO, there is enough gap between Mond and all the QB prospects below him that I would consider drafting him in the second round and definitely the third, but none of the others until round six as a throwaway lottery ticket.
If you look at the mock drafts, there is a big gap after Sewell and Slater. The others bounce around all over the place. I am confident we can get one of them in the second round, so it is a waste to take one in first. If I am wrong, it will be clear by around #15, and I will not complain if Pace takes one, unless Bateman is still on the board at 20. Even in worst case scenario, Bears can get by with Leno and Ifedi at tackle in 2021.
I think you are making a big mistake by assuming that mock drafts are accurate or determinative of where certain players will or should be drafted. I can assure you that they are wrong every single year. Beyond maybe the top-10 picks or so, mock drafts simply aren't accurate. By the time you get to the 2nd round, they're little more than guesswork.
I will be shocked if there aren't 4-5 OTs taken in the 1st round and 6-7 by the time the Bears 2nd round pick rolls around. ————— I see mock drafts as general indicators where there is concensus that a player will be top 10-15. That is what I am saying about Sewell and Slater. If one of them slips to 20, I would grab him. If you are right and only 1 or 2 of the next 4-5 are still left at 20, then MAYBE take one depending on whether some other great prospect at some other position is available. Otherwise, I am taking the tackle in second round, Bateman in first round, and Mond in third. I also like Meinerz somewhere in middle rounds.
You framed it well. It could be that the QBs available at #20 (after a run on QBs this year that will be fierce) will still be there in the 2nd (maybe even the 3rd round). When you take the 5th or 6th QB in a draft it's usually a guy who will be a career backup at best, and more probably out of the NFL in a very few years (or sooner). This year (not every year but THIS year) the best OT available at #20 will be a stud. A guy who starts for you day-1 at that RT spot and can move to LT in 2022.
The question is which helps the team more? Probably the OT this year. Sure, drafting a 5th or 6th QB with our top pick will make some fans happy. It's throwing them a bone. But it doesn't sound like the guys people are amped up about in this year's QB class. It sure won't be Mac Jones, the guy a lot of us hoped might be there. His draft stock has really risen.
Mac Jones' stock has risen a lot it seems. Looks now like he's going #3. Since it but certain now that QBs are going 1-2-3, The odds of Bears getting one of the 1st rounders is pretty slim.
There's a slew of teams picking between 4 and 19 who either need a QB or are interested in one. Fields isn't getting out of the top-10 IMO which only leaves Lance. Maybe he will slip out of the top-10 due to his thin college resume at a small school.
Frankly I'd rather take Mond or Mills on Day 2 than trade-up for Lance. At least they played against major NCAA competition and won't cost us a pick.
I'm sanguine and realistic here--it would take a minor miracle for the Bears to find their answer at QB this offseason. We just pick too low and there's lots of QB-needy teams ahead of us.
I'm feeling that way too about this particular draft year. We can throw that #20 pick away on a LONG shot QB (one of the "leftover" guys still there when we draft, who most years would be a 2nd or 3rd or even later round pick. Or. We can spend that #20 pick on an OT who will be a stud, starting on day-1 at RT, and after a year, can be our LT. He'd be a guy far better than Leno in 2022 and beyond. We need an exit plan for Leno anyway so that in 2022 we can move on from him.
I've read the draft profiles and watched video of the top OTs in this draft and there will still be a couple left at #20 - especially with the run on QBs in this draft. Our guy will be there at #20. A stud. No he will not be the top guy, but he will CERTAINLY be in that next tier level (day 1 starter who will improve with experience).
Again, which player will have the greatest impact on our team long-term? A dumpster-dive QB who may not even turn out to be backup level? Or a day-1 starter at RT this year and LT in 2022 replacing Leno?
I just makes no sense to me to overdraft a QB from the talent that will fall to us at #20. Not when we can get a stud player instead. By all means draft a "development" QB in the 2nd round. The guy we get there will be a true 2nd round talent. Maybe we get lucky and the Bears actually do "develop" the guy. Mond would be a good one to target, but there are 3 to 5 guys who will be ~at that level of talent left. Just close your eyes and pick one... heck, round 3 will have some of those leftover guys available too. They will be no worse than what we'd draft at #20 of the 1st round THIS year anyway.
Mac Jones' stock has risen a lot it seems. Looks now like he's going #3. Since it but certain now that QBs are going 1-2-3, The odds of Bears getting one of the 1st rounders is pretty slim.
There's a slew of teams picking between 4 and 19 who either need a QB or are interested in one. Fields isn't getting out of the top-10 IMO which only leaves Lance. Maybe he will slip out of the top-10 due to his thin college resume at a small school.
Frankly I'd rather take Mond or Mills on Day 2 than trade-up for Lance. At least they played against major NCAA competition and won't cost us a pick.
I'm sanguine and realistic here--it would take a minor miracle for the Bears to find their answer at QB this offseason. We just pick too low and there's lots of QB-needy teams ahead of us.
I'm feeling that way too about this particular draft year. We can throw that #20 pick away on a LONG shot QB (one of the "leftover" guys still there when we draft, who most years would be a 2nd or 3rd or even later round pick. Or. We can spend that #20 pick on an OT who will be a stud, starting on day-1 at RT, and after a year, can be our LT. He'd be a guy far better than Leno in 2022 and beyond. We need an exit plan for Leno anyway so that in 2022 we can move on from him.
I've read the draft profiles and watched video of the top OTs in this draft and there will still be a couple left at #20 - especially with the run on QBs in this draft. Our guy will be there at #20. A stud. No he will not be the top guy, but he will CERTAINLY be in that next tier level (day 1 starter who will improve with experience).
Again, which player will have the greatest impact on our team long-term? A dumpster-dive QB who may not even turn out to be backup level? Or a day-1 starter at RT this year and LT in 2022 replacing Leno?
I just makes no sense to me to overdraft a QB from the talent that will fall to us at #20. Not when we can get a stud player instead. By all means draft a "development" QB in the 2nd round. The guy we get there will be a true 2nd round talent. Maybe we get lucky and the Bears actually do "develop" the guy. Mond would be a good one to target, but there are 3 to 5 guys who will be ~at that level of talent left. Just close your eyes and pick one... heck, round 3 will have some of those leftover guys available too. They will be no worse than what we'd draft at #20 of the 1st round THIS year anyway. —— I agree with most of this except to my eye (and I have seen tapes of them all), Mond has more potential than Trask, Newman, Mills. He outplayed all of them in the senior bowl and I think his faults are correctable, as he has the physical tools to play as starter. That is about all you can ask for at this point in his career.
Something else to consider is if we don’t go qb at 20 and the team is equal to, or better than, the 2020 team when do you expect to draft lower than at 20 without giving up draft choices to move up? Only way would be to regress and that’s a potential job killer for Nagy and Pace.
Something else to consider is if we don’t go qb at 20 and the team is equal to, or better than, the 2020 team when do you expect to draft lower than at 20 without giving up draft choices to move up? Only way would be to regress and that’s a potential job killer for Nagy and Pace.
Unless they aren't really "on the hot seat" at all this year. We don't know but the fact that George and Teddy were incredibly evasive (flat out refused to say) when asked the remaining length of Pace's contract suggests they may have more leash than we otherwise assumed.
As I've posted a million times, it makes no sense to keep P/N for "one more year" (i.e., "hot seat"), if there wasn't a realistic chance for a quick turnaround/improvement. With no cap space or high picks, seems to me that chance is remote. Especially with a very tough schedule coming up on paper.
Which QB do you want them to draft at 20? I asked this before. Which QB A) might reasonably be expected to be available at 20 AND B) would offer an immediate upgrade for 2021? Answer: NONE as far as I can see at this point.
I will be shocked if there aren't 4-5 OTs taken in the 1st round and 6-7 by the time the Bears 2nd round pick rolls around. ========= So, here is my bottomline question for you: If you believed that Bateman will be a sure fire All-Pro and not likely to still be available on second round, are you still drafting a tackle at 20?
Something else to consider is if we don’t go qb at 20 and the team is equal to, or better than, the 2020 team when do you expect to draft lower than at 20 without giving up draft choices to move up? Only way would be to regress and that’s a potential job killer for Nagy and Pace.
Unless they aren't really "on the hot seat" at all this year. We don't know but the fact that George and Teddy were incredibly evasive (flat out refused to say) when asked the remaining length of Pace's contract suggests they may have more leash than we otherwise assumed.
As I've posted a million times, it makes no sense to keep P/N for "one more year" (i.e., "hot seat"), if there wasn't a realistic chance for a quick turnaround/improvement. With no cap space or high picks, seems to me that chance is remote. Especially with a very tough schedule coming up on paper.
Which QB do you want them to draft at 20? I asked this before. Which QB A) might reasonably be expected to be available at 20 AND B) would offer an immediate upgrade for 2021? Answer: NONE as far as I can see at this point.
Jones, Trask or Mond. I don’t expect Jones to be there but one never knows. And if we’re better than 8-8 we’re screwed next draft and thereafter unless we give up draft choices to move up.
I will be shocked if there aren't 4-5 OTs taken in the 1st round and 6-7 by the time the Bears 2nd round pick rolls around. ========= So, here is my bottomline question for you: If you believed that Bateman will be a sure fire All-Pro and not likely to still be available on second round, are you still drafting a tackle at 20?
Of course not. If I had perfect knowledge, I'd take the player that will have the greatest career production for my team. No one has perfect knowledge, not even close, though. I'm sure Pace thought Kevin White was gonna be a 10-year baller for the Bears when he took him.