Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2018 6:53:30 GMT -6
Should Chicago Bears value Adrian Amos as an elite safety?
by Khari Thompson1 week agoFollow @kdthompson5
Since coming into the league, the former 2015 fifth-rounder started all 16 games as a rookie and 14-of-15 games he played in 2016. During that time, he racked up a reputation as a guy who made all the easy plays, especially in the run game, but couldn’t make big plays in the passing game.
Decent, but nothing special.
With the Bears wanting playmakers at the position, the team drafted Alabama ball-hawk Eddie Jackson in the fourth round of the 2017 NFL Draft and signed veteran safety Quintin Demps, who posted six interceptions in 2016. Amos lost his starting spot largely because of his inability to impact the game by taking the ball.
Pro Football Focus
✔
@pff
Adrian Amos was one of the top safeties in the NFL in 2017!
5:16 AM - Jun 11, 2018
And Pro Football Focus, who has always loved Amos, took things a step further, grading him out as the second-best safety in the league last season (92.9). He made the site’s All-Pro First Team and was named as a player with a chance to become an elite player at his position.
Interesting.
Everything about the eye test with Amos suggests that he’s average to slightly above-average.
He won’t make “wow” plays too often, aside from busting someone in the chops for a highlight hit, but he’ll get the ball carrier on the ground. And he won’t defend many passes, but he’ll limit the damage of the receptions he allows.
Then again, PFF salivates over players who stack up good outcomes on plays, which therefore makes Amos a superstar by their metrics.
The question is: should we and the Chicago Bears view him that way?
In particular, the Bears will have to decide whether or not they want to lock up Amos on a long-term deal soon as he becomes a free agent after this year. Doubtless, they’ll want to keep him around. Why not? He’s a fifth-round pick that’s developed into a success story for the franchise?
But if Amos believes he deserves to be paid like an elite safety, will the Bears by that? Does his play, including his much-improved 2017, dictate that he treated as such? Or can the Bears find someone else that can do what he does just fine?
PROS; Always reliable
Whatever you may feel about PFF and how they come to their statistical measurements, one thing is for sure in regards to their assessment of Amos: they capture his reliability to a T.
In this case, I’m talking about the fact that while Amos typically won’t give you many splash plays, he’s usually not going to get you beat by doing something stupid or not being where he’s supposed to be. And as we’ve seen before, that’s not always a trait you count on Chicago Bears safeties possessing.
Just look at the metrics PFF highlighted when they listed Amos as a player on the cusp of elite status.
He ranked second in yards allowed per reception (7.1) and 15th in passer rating when targeted (81.8). He also flashed strong tackling ability on receptions, as he allowed just 3.50 yards after the catch per reception allowed, ranking fifth among safeties with at least 25 targets this past season.
Again, what does all this tell you?
It doesn’t scream that Amos is a ball-hawking wizard who uses incredible instinct to disrupt plays and re-route offensive game plans. Even though he earned the sixth-best coverage grade in the NFL via PFF last year, he only defended three passes all season.
It says that he keeps the play in front of him, runs to the ball and makes the tackle. If we’re being honest, that is more or less the basic nature of what a safety is supposed to do. And when he found himself in the right place at the right time to make a play on the ball, he made the most of it.
Plus, it’s not as if he didn’t make any good plays to knock down passes in 2018. In that aspect, he arguably looked better than he did at any previous point in his career.
Amos just does the little things right on a play-in, play-out basis. Plus, every once in a while, he shows he can barrel up a ball carrier and blast him for a home run hit with the best of them.
And with Eddie Jackson alongside him, Amos gets to play where he’s most comfortable: closer to the ball. In basic matchups, Amos plays the box safety role more often with Jackson roaming deep.
But when teams have big-time receiving threats at tight end and want to create matchup issues in Cover-1, Jackson, a former cornerback, can handle those responsibilities, with Amos’ only job to keep everything in front of him, which he excels at.
In short, Amos is in the perfect situation to thrive, and that’s evidenced in the strides we’ve seen in his game.
Still, let’s not get carried away here. Good grades and national love as a “secret superstar” aside, Amos is not a once-in-a-lifetime safety.
He isn’t yet the kind of impactful player that you circle on the chalkboard like “stay away from this guy” or “don’t lose sight of where he is on the field”. Not saying he can never be that, but he certainly isn’t that now.
And for all his ability to keep the ball in front of him, he still has his shortcomings when the ball is in flight.
Again, don’t be fooled by the passer rating thing, as Amos ranked 15th out of all safeties last season in rating when targeted (81.5). That’s not a product of him making many plays on the ball; it’s an offshoot of him limiting plays that are already made (which isn’t bad, of course).
He still doesn’t have great foot speed or quickness to mirror routes or recover when beaten. And he still has a tendency to misplay balls that he really should get his hands on.
When your own teammate busts you out and nicknames you “spatula hands” because you don’t catch footballs? That’s not just hilarious. That’s a bit telling.
Right now, Amos still must prove that he’s more than just a box safety in a perfect role. He certainly didn’t fit very well as a free safety in the years before Jackson arrived. Why? Because as good as he is at keeping plays in front of him, he just doesn’t have great range, anticipation or playmaking skills.
If he doesn’t make more of a leap this year, the Chicago Bears are really going to have to evaluate what he is as a player and decide whether or not they believe he can improve or not.
I’ll come right out and say it: I don’t believe Amos is an elite player. Before last year, he was average at best. Last year, he was really good. But we need to see more of that.
However, I’m going to withhold judgment on Amos’ future beyond this season for now. We haven’t seen him play yet in 2018, so we don’t know how much he may or may not improve.
After all, none of us thought Kyle Fuller would be as good as he was in 2017, and he surprised us with some major strides.
And, reaching back a few years ago, few of us probably thought of former Chicago Bears corner Tim Jennings as a potential All-Pro before 2012. For all his ability, he had similar playmaking issues that he rectified by sheer hard work, raising his game tremendously in seemingly no time.
So, it can happen for Amos. With the kind of chip on his shoulder he carries around, I won’t put it past him.
But we have to see it on the field. Because if the Chicago Bears had to decide between paying Amos like an elite safety (which he’s going to want) or letting him walk today, they might be closer to letting him walk than you’d think.
Next: Should Chicago Bears take a chance on these free agents?
I’d still lean toward him staying with the Chicago Bears, especially if someone like Deon Bush can’t potentially step up into that void. But make no mistake: this is Amos’ shot to prove that he’s as elite as some of the advanced numbers suggest he is. And he doesn’t show himself to be that player, he has no guarantees for next season.
by Khari Thompson1 week agoFollow @kdthompson5
The Chicago Bears will have a decision to make next season regarding Adrian Amos‘ future, and it hinges on whether or not they believe him to possibly be an elite safety in the NFL.
There may be no weirder player to evaluate on the Chicago Bears, and very few more interesting cases around the league, than safety Adrian Amos.
Since coming into the league, the former 2015 fifth-rounder started all 16 games as a rookie and 14-of-15 games he played in 2016. During that time, he racked up a reputation as a guy who made all the easy plays, especially in the run game, but couldn’t make big plays in the passing game.
Decent, but nothing special.
With the Bears wanting playmakers at the position, the team drafted Alabama ball-hawk Eddie Jackson in the fourth round of the 2017 NFL Draft and signed veteran safety Quintin Demps, who posted six interceptions in 2016. Amos lost his starting spot largely because of his inability to impact the game by taking the ball.
But then, when Demps broke his arm in Week 3 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Amos got another shot. And he responded by playing the best football of his career.
✔
@pff
Adrian Amos was one of the top safeties in the NFL in 2017!
5:16 AM - Jun 11, 2018
In 10 starts, Amos racked up a career-high in tackles, forced two fumbles and notched his first interception in big-time fashion, returning it for a touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens. And generally, his physicality and solid play complemented the rangy Jackson perfectly, forming a burgeoning safety tandem.
And Pro Football Focus, who has always loved Amos, took things a step further, grading him out as the second-best safety in the league last season (92.9). He made the site’s All-Pro First Team and was named as a player with a chance to become an elite player at his position.
Interesting.
Everything about the eye test with Amos suggests that he’s average to slightly above-average.
He won’t make “wow” plays too often, aside from busting someone in the chops for a highlight hit, but he’ll get the ball carrier on the ground. And he won’t defend many passes, but he’ll limit the damage of the receptions he allows.
Then again, PFF salivates over players who stack up good outcomes on plays, which therefore makes Amos a superstar by their metrics.
The question is: should we and the Chicago Bears view him that way?
In particular, the Bears will have to decide whether or not they want to lock up Amos on a long-term deal soon as he becomes a free agent after this year. Doubtless, they’ll want to keep him around. Why not? He’s a fifth-round pick that’s developed into a success story for the franchise?
But if Amos believes he deserves to be paid like an elite safety, will the Bears by that? Does his play, including his much-improved 2017, dictate that he treated as such? Or can the Bears find someone else that can do what he does just fine?
Here’s a look at what Amos is as a player and why the Chicago Bears should and should not consider indulging the thought of paying Amos like a top safety. Interestingly, both the pros and cons of this analysis stem from the same adjective, as you’ll see.
PROS; Always reliable
Whatever you may feel about PFF and how they come to their statistical measurements, one thing is for sure in regards to their assessment of Amos: they capture his reliability to a T.
In this case, I’m talking about the fact that while Amos typically won’t give you many splash plays, he’s usually not going to get you beat by doing something stupid or not being where he’s supposed to be. And as we’ve seen before, that’s not always a trait you count on Chicago Bears safeties possessing.
Just look at the metrics PFF highlighted when they listed Amos as a player on the cusp of elite status.
He ranked second in yards allowed per reception (7.1) and 15th in passer rating when targeted (81.8). He also flashed strong tackling ability on receptions, as he allowed just 3.50 yards after the catch per reception allowed, ranking fifth among safeties with at least 25 targets this past season.
Again, what does all this tell you?
It doesn’t scream that Amos is a ball-hawking wizard who uses incredible instinct to disrupt plays and re-route offensive game plans. Even though he earned the sixth-best coverage grade in the NFL via PFF last year, he only defended three passes all season.
It says that he keeps the play in front of him, runs to the ball and makes the tackle. If we’re being honest, that is more or less the basic nature of what a safety is supposed to do. And when he found himself in the right place at the right time to make a play on the ball, he made the most of it.
Plus, it’s not as if he didn’t make any good plays to knock down passes in 2018. In that aspect, he arguably looked better than he did at any previous point in his career.
Amos just does the little things right on a play-in, play-out basis. Plus, every once in a while, he shows he can barrel up a ball carrier and blast him for a home run hit with the best of them.
And with Eddie Jackson alongside him, Amos gets to play where he’s most comfortable: closer to the ball. In basic matchups, Amos plays the box safety role more often with Jackson roaming deep.
But when teams have big-time receiving threats at tight end and want to create matchup issues in Cover-1, Jackson, a former cornerback, can handle those responsibilities, with Amos’ only job to keep everything in front of him, which he excels at.
In short, Amos is in the perfect situation to thrive, and that’s evidenced in the strides we’ve seen in his game.
CONS; “Only” reliable?
Still, let’s not get carried away here. Good grades and national love as a “secret superstar” aside, Amos is not a once-in-a-lifetime safety.
He isn’t yet the kind of impactful player that you circle on the chalkboard like “stay away from this guy” or “don’t lose sight of where he is on the field”. Not saying he can never be that, but he certainly isn’t that now.
And for all his ability to keep the ball in front of him, he still has his shortcomings when the ball is in flight.
Again, don’t be fooled by the passer rating thing, as Amos ranked 15th out of all safeties last season in rating when targeted (81.5). That’s not a product of him making many plays on the ball; it’s an offshoot of him limiting plays that are already made (which isn’t bad, of course).
He still doesn’t have great foot speed or quickness to mirror routes or recover when beaten. And he still has a tendency to misplay balls that he really should get his hands on.
When your own teammate busts you out and nicknames you “spatula hands” because you don’t catch footballs? That’s not just hilarious. That’s a bit telling.
Right now, Amos still must prove that he’s more than just a box safety in a perfect role. He certainly didn’t fit very well as a free safety in the years before Jackson arrived. Why? Because as good as he is at keeping plays in front of him, he just doesn’t have great range, anticipation or playmaking skills.
If he doesn’t make more of a leap this year, the Chicago Bears are really going to have to evaluate what he is as a player and decide whether or not they believe he can improve or not.
Outlook
I’ll come right out and say it: I don’t believe Amos is an elite player. Before last year, he was average at best. Last year, he was really good. But we need to see more of that.
However, I’m going to withhold judgment on Amos’ future beyond this season for now. We haven’t seen him play yet in 2018, so we don’t know how much he may or may not improve.
After all, none of us thought Kyle Fuller would be as good as he was in 2017, and he surprised us with some major strides.
And, reaching back a few years ago, few of us probably thought of former Chicago Bears corner Tim Jennings as a potential All-Pro before 2012. For all his ability, he had similar playmaking issues that he rectified by sheer hard work, raising his game tremendously in seemingly no time.
So, it can happen for Amos. With the kind of chip on his shoulder he carries around, I won’t put it past him.
But we have to see it on the field. Because if the Chicago Bears had to decide between paying Amos like an elite safety (which he’s going to want) or letting him walk today, they might be closer to letting him walk than you’d think.
Next: Should Chicago Bears take a chance on these free agents?
I’d still lean toward him staying with the Chicago Bears, especially if someone like Deon Bush can’t potentially step up into that void. But make no mistake: this is Amos’ shot to prove that he’s as elite as some of the advanced numbers suggest he is. And he doesn’t show himself to be that player, he has no guarantees for next season.
