Jay was saying in the off-season that he and Loggains got together and threw out what didn't work well, and kept what did... like they tweaked things. LOL, maybe they threw out the good stuff by mistake :-)
No once they throw out what didn't work there was nothing left.
Ur on a roll JJ , and you need to stop it ( makin me laugh too hard ) .
LOL You're welcome to do that research if you'd like and give us a report on it but what Monsters posted will give you a rough idea and answer your question gbph.
I'll give it a shot. Using 2000-2016 as my basis.
By QB record (which is a stat I hate but others seem to value for some reason) here are the QBs over .500
21 players drafted in picks 1-5
Eli Manning (99-87) P.Rivers (93-70) Palmer (84-78) Ryan (76-53) Smith (70-53-1) Vick (61-51-1) Newton (46-34) Sanchez (37-35) Luck (36-22) V.Young (31-19)
So 9 out of 21 (I dropped Sanchez because....really?) 9/21=43%
Everyone else: 192 drafted with picks 6-end of draft
Here are the guys that I didn't put in that due to small numbers of games started I didn't include: Sieman, Garoppolo, Brissett, Drew Henson, Stephen McGee, Brock Osweiler, Dennis Dixon, AJ McMarron, Dak Prescott, Craig Krenzel, Drew Stanton, Tim Tebow, TJ Yates
If you want you include them thats 29/162=18%
and 138 of them never even got a start as an NFL QB.
I'm willing to use whatever stat to want to re-run the numbers.
Thank you for this Research and write up
In other words, the higher you draft, the better Chance you get yourself a good one. This should be seen for all positions.
I'm on the Kaaya Train. Guy can make the throws and he Looks smart and calm on the field. I don't care about those flashy athletic Highlight QBs. I want Kaaya
The next draft I would be happy with a QB and the rest being o-linemen and secondary. I really think the rest of the defense is going to be ok right now.
You dont think theres a huge problem at OLB emerging?
The next draft I would be happy with a QB and the rest being o-linemen and secondary. I really think the rest of the defense is going to be ok right now.
You dont think theres a huge problem at OLB emerging?
Finally someone else sees the problem our OLB position is going to have.
Houston has another ACL injury and may be gone next year Mcphee has a knee that can go out on him at any time
Young is getting old and to speculate I believe he got extended do to concerns with Mcphee.
Floyd has been very lack luster on defense so far.
Post by germansbombedph on Sept 30, 2016 2:32:56 GMT -6
you have an easier time to find a pass rusher than a QB.
Houston took the sure thing Clowney and look how for it has taken them. They could have had a starting QB added to Watt and Mercilus. They'd be much better. Same can be said for the Bears. You have Guards and Young WRs, you have Young RBs and your offense will be ready to add a QB for the future. I don't think Kaaya or Watson Needs to sit a year.
If we want a pass rusher, we can add one in round 2
you have an easier time to find a pass rusher than a QB.
Houston took the sure thing Clowney and look how for it has taken them. They could have had a starting QB added to Watt and Mercilus. They'd be much better. Same can be said for the Bears. You have Guards and Young WRs, you have Young RBs and your offense will be ready to add a QB for the future. I don't think Kaaya or Watson Needs to sit a year.
If we want a pass rusher, we can add one in round 2
Really?
How many Von Miller type Pass Rushers are in this years FA? Its very hard to find true difference maker pass rushers unless their contract expired, team can't afford them, or a HUGE injury concern ( Look at Mcphee )
Clowney isn't bad but he can't stay healthy but he is still a better option than Blake Bortles. Clowney may have a breakout season as well this year.
Lets just look at history of the greatest players to play plus present day:
Pass rushers w/10+ sacks last year: RK PLAYER TEAM SACK 1J.J. Watt, DE HOU 17.5 1st rd 11th pick 2 Khalil Mack, DE OAK 15.0 1st rd 5th pick 3 Ezekiel Ansah, DE DET 14.5 1st rd 5th pick 4 Carlos Dunlap, DE CIN 13.5 2nd rd 54th pick 5 Chandler Jones, LB NE 12.5 1st rd 21st pick 6 Muhammad Wilkerson, DE NYJ 12.0 1st rd 30th pick Whitney Mercilus, LB HOU 12.0 1st rd 26th pick 8 Geno Atkins, DT CIN 11.0 4th rd 120th pick Von Miller, LB DEN 11.0 1st rd 2nd pick Aaron Donald, DT LA 11.0 1st rd 13th pick Kawann Short, DT CAR 11.0 2nd rd 44th pick 12 Julius Peppers, LB GB 10.5 1st rd 2nd pick Everson Griffen, DE MIN 10.5 4th rd 100th pick Melvin Ingram, LB SD 10.5 1st rd 18th pick 15 Cameron Jordan, DE NO 10.0 1st rd 24th pick Michael Bennett, DE SEA 10.0 undrafted
All those guys highlighted came in the late 1st or 2nd-udfa. 7 of 16 were drafted in the top 1/2 of the 1st round. 5 were drafted after the first round where the Bears could get them, 4 were drafted in the late 1st round were you could easily move up to get them if the guy you wanted wouldn't be there. And one, like Brady, is an anomaly and was drafted late. So about 1/3rd of your top sacks producers come from outside the 1st round, and less then 1/2 come from the top 1/2 of the 1st round, and 1/4 come from a top 5 pick. So no it's not required to spend your high first pick on a pass rusher.
Guys like Brady/Bennett should be thrown out of the conversations, they are exceptions not rules. You are going to get your elite players in the first 3 rounds on a regular basis, sometimes the 4th. If you get anything exceptional outside of the 4th you are counting your lucky stars.
Post by germansbombedph on Sept 30, 2016 4:50:31 GMT -6
yep, that goes for every Position. You draft at the top and you get to pick the best at his Position coming out of college. Common Sense would tell me that it's normal to find guys like that earlier in the draft.
We don't have a QB, QB is the most important Position. QBs can win games almost by themselfs. Pretty easy decision what Position to take.
Pass rushers w/10+ sacks last year: RK PLAYER TEAM SACK 1J.J. Watt, DE HOU 17.5 1st rd 11th pick 2 Khalil Mack, DE OAK 15.0 1st rd 5th pick 3 Ezekiel Ansah, DE DET 14.5 1st rd 5th pick 4 Carlos Dunlap, DE CIN 13.5 2nd rd 54th pick 5 Chandler Jones, LB NE 12.5 1st rd 21st pick 6 Muhammad Wilkerson, DE NYJ 12.0 1st rd 30th pick Whitney Mercilus, LB HOU 12.0 1st rd 26th pick 8 Geno Atkins, DT CIN 11.0 4th rd 120th pick Von Miller, LB DEN 11.0 1st rd 2nd pick Aaron Donald, DT LA 11.0 1st rd 13th pick Kawann Short, DT CAR 11.0 2nd rd 44th pick 12 Julius Peppers, LB GB 10.5 1st rd 2nd pick Everson Griffen, DE MIN 10.5 4th rd 100th pick Melvin Ingram, LB SD 10.5 1st rd 18th pick 15 Cameron Jordan, DE NO 10.0 1st rd 24th pick Michael Bennett, DE SEA 10.0 undrafted
All those guys highlighted came in the late 1st or 2nd-udfa. 7 of 16 were drafted in the top 1/2 of the 1st round. 5 were drafted after the first round where the Bears could get them, 4 were drafted in the late 1st round were you could easily move up to get them if the guy you wanted wouldn't be there. And one, like Brady, is an anomaly and was drafted late. So about 1/3rd of your top sacks producers come from outside the 1st round, and less then 1/2 come from the top 1/2 of the 1st round, and 1/4 come from a top 5 pick. So no it's not required to spend your high first pick on a pass rusher.
Guys like Brady/Bennett should be thrown out of the conversations, they are exceptions not rules. You are going to get your elite players in the first 3 rounds on a regular basis, sometimes the 4th. If you get anything exceptional outside of the 4th you are counting your lucky stars.
Bennett is good but he isn't close to the best player to play that position while Brady is.
The players I listed are arguably the best players to play the game at that position mixed in with today's great players. Notice how 0 of them for OLB or DE are picked outside of the first?
With OLB and DEs its more about the athleticism of the player rather than the mental strength while with QB its the other way.
Wouldn't you rather have the best defensive prospect since Von Miller on your team rather than the 1-3 Deshawn?
1 Justin Houston, LB 22.0 3rd rd 70th pick 2 J.J. Watt, DE 20.5 1st rd 11th pick 3 Elvis Dumervil, LB 17.0 4th rd 126th pick 4 Mario Williams, DE 14.5 1st rd 1st pick Connor Barwin, DE 14.5 2nd rd 26th pick 6 Von Miller, LB 14.0 1st rd 2nd pick 7 Ryan Kerrigan, LB 13.5 1st rd 16th pick 8 Jason Pierre-Paul, DE 12.5 1st rd 15th pick 9 Everson Griffen, DE 12.0 4th rd 100th pick Terrell Suggs, LB 12.0 1st rd 10th pick 11 Cameron Wake, DE 11.5 UDFA 12 Paul Kruger, DE 11.0 2nd rd 57th pick Clay Matthews, LB 11.0 1st rd 26th pick 14 Robert Quinn, DE 10.5 1st rd 14th pick 15 Marcell Dareus, DT 10.0 1st rd 3rd pick Willie Young, LB 10.0 7th rd 213th pick DeMarcus Ware, LB 10.0 1st rd 11th pick Junior Galette, LB 10.0 UDFA
18 guys this time, only 2 top 5 picks, 9 top 1/2 picks, and 8 outside of the first round and 1 that could be easily traded back into the 1st to get(26th). So again you have a very small amount of top 5 picks, about 1/2 top 1/2 picks and a good portion coming outside of the 1st, and this time 2 UDFA's and a 7th. This idea that you HAVE to get pass rushers in the early 1st or let alone early 1st is not what is happening right now in the league.
