Post by bsbears on Apr 16, 2018 19:16:35 GMT -6
Here is link if you want to see Trade Value Charts.
bearsbarroom.com/bears-trade-back-2018-draft/
To Trade Back, Or Not To Trade Back! A Bears Barroom Look At Trading Picks In The 2018 NFL Draft
16
Apr, 2018
by John Santucci
To trade back, or not to trade back. That is the question. Whether ’tis nobler in the draft to follow one’s instinct, or suffer the barbs and derision of NFL pundits and social media keyboard warriors.
But hey man, this is the Barroom, and everything and nothing is sacred. It’s all fair game, and yet all is hallowed in Bears history and lore.
And these days, the prayer on the lips of Bears fans is, and has been for three years, “In Pace We Trust.”
So Bears fans: do you or don’t you trust Mr. Pace?
We are less than two weeks away from the 2018 NFL Draft. And while the Barroom is abuzz with opposing thoughts on taking a guard at #8 overall, I’m here wondering if Mr. Pace is ready to risk trading that #8 pick for more picks. I’m positive he wants that third round pick back…the one he sent to 49ers’ rookie general manager John Lynch so the Bears could move up in last year’s draft and secure their franchise quarterback, Mitchell Trubisky (the so-called “Pretty Boy Assassin”). I remember last year, after Mr. Pace traded up one spot to get Trubisky, there was some scorn and derision, some slings and arrows, from media and fans. Most of it was unhappiness or criticism concerning the move up of only one spot, how much the Bears gave up for that move, and whether or not Trubisky would have been there had the Bears’ stayed at their pick. But Pace was resolute: he wanted his franchise quarterback and he was right in thinking he wouldn’t be picking in the top 3 picks again anytime soon.
It turns out Mr. Pace was right. With a resurgent defense last season, the Bears finished 5-11, and now own the #8 overall pick. Furthermore, the #8 pick may fall out of the range of securing one of the top four quarterbacks in the 2018 NFL Draft. So it’s a damn good thing Mr. Pace secured his franchise quarterback last year, even if he had to trade up one spot to get him. I’ve got a feeling that more than a few glasses will be raised and more than a few shots will be knocked back in toasting Pace, Trubisky and Nagy everytime the Bears win. (Although knowing the Bears Barroom crowd a little bit, it’ll be every time the Bears score. To be honest, the Barroom doesn’t really need a good reason to knock back a few shots, amiright?)
So what would be a good value for this year’s #8 overall pick? And who are the Bears’ potential trade partners? Does Mr. Pace wait until Draft Day when the clock is ticking fast like thundering heartbeats? Does he entertain trade offers in these remaining days? The phone line should be open now, though it’s unlikely that Pace will be able to trade out of any of his picks before the draft. Sitting at 8, the draft likely has to unfold first. Can you feel the adrenaline yet?
According to the infamous “Jimmy Johnson Draft Pick Value Chart” (for an interactive version of the chart CLICK HERE) the Bears’ pick (#8 overall) is worth 1400 points. For reference, the Browns’ #1 overall pick is worth 3000 points, so the value drops off quickly, as the Bears’ pick (only seven picks later), is worth less than half of that Browns #1 overall pick.
This chart and a thorough explanation of how it works can be found at: harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/
While NFL teams are not bound to follow this chart, it’s become useful to GMs as a tool to help guide trade talks. The chart was devised by the Dallas Cowboys, and their finely-coiffed head coach, Jimmy Johnson in the 1990s, and it’s become the de facto standard for NFL teams to evaluate trades of draft picks. (And what good is a story that mentions Jimmy Johnson and doesn’t make note of his transcendent coiffure?)
So let’s try to deduce who might be looking at that #8 pick, shall we? Who might be buzzing Mr. Pace’s cell phone these next days leading up to, and during, the ticking seconds of the draft? Here are all of the Value Points for the Bears’ current picks (Profootballreference.com provides the team value graphics):
Let’s start with the team closest to the Bears’ pick, the Dolphins. The Dolphins are currently holding the #11 overall pick, so the Bears would only be trading back 3 spots, and could still get a very good player at #11. The Dolphins could be in the market for a quarterback this year, after a season-ending injury to the ineffective Ryan Tannehill, and season spent surviving Jay Cutler.
Here’s the value of all of the Dolphins picks:
To move up to #8, the Dolphins would likely have to send the Bears their #11 pick and their 3rd round pick (#73). The total value of those two picks is 1475. The Bears #8 pick is worth 1400 points, so the Bears might have to send a pick back to the Dolphins, for example their second 4th round pick or their 5th round pick to get closer to that 1475 value. Mr. Pace likely wants his 3rd round pick back, so this trade could be very appealing to him. If either Lamar Jackson or Baker Mayfield are still on the board at 8, the chances that teams like the Dolphins will look to trade up are good.
Right after the Dolphins’ pick is the Bills’ pick, #12 overall. This year the Bills have two 1st round picks. They are also holding the #22 overall pick as well. After trading their starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor to the Browns, the Bills are very likely to trade up for one of the top 5 quarterbacks. As of today, the Bills starting quarterback is former Bengals backup A.J. McCarron.
Here are the Bills’ picks along with their values:
In order for the Bears to get both of the Bills’ first round picks, they would likely have to give back a pick along with their 1st round pick. The value of the Bills’ 2 picks is 1980, so the Bears would have to send their 2nd round pick to Buffalo and possibly another pick in order to get to a value of 1980. That doesn’t sound like too good a deal since the Bears would in essence be giving 3 picks for 2. If the Bills accepted our #8 pick and a lower pick, in essence two picks for two picks, perhaps Mr. Pace would consider it. The Bills have other picks to trade as well, and aren’t bound to trade both first round picks. A combination of picks with #12 overall could be an option here as it would mean the Bears would not be trading back too far from their #8 spot. An example would be the Bears #8 pick, valued at 1400, for the Bills #12 pick and #65 pick, valued in total at 1465. As well, the Bears could throw in a lower pick, but are bargaining from a position of advantage. You get the idea. Exciting isn’t it?
The Redskins may also be a possible trade partner. They may be a team looking for a quarterback to groom behind veteran signal caller Alex Smith. They let their former starting quarterback sign with the Vikings, saying goodbye to Kirk Cousins, who signed a monster contract with the Bears’ division rivals, the Vikings.
Here are the Redskins picks along with their values:
Like the Bears, the Redskins are without a third round pick (sent to the Chiefs for QB Alex Smith), so in addition to the #13 pick, they’d have to send a 2nd round pick, or a combination of other picks for the Bears’ #8 pick. The Redskins’ #13 pick and #44 pick are a total value of 1610. The Bears’ #8 pick and #105 pick are a total value of 1484, so the Redskins are looking like a poor trading partner for the Bears. Even if the Redskins offer picks 13, 109, 142, 163, 188, 231 and 241, they still can’t get to the value of the Bears #8 pick. The Redskins or Bears would likely have to delve into offering a 2019 draft pick in order to complete a trade.
The Cardinals present a better trading partner as far as finding equal value with the Bears’ picks. And they also might be looking for a quarterback in this draft. They parted ways with all of their quarterbacks this offseason. Carson Palmer retired, and the other quarterbacks were all free agents who have not yet been brought back. So, the Cards signed brittle, former Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford to start, and former Bears failed free agent Mike Glennon to back him up. That set-up doesn’t even look good on paper. The Cards are a Sam Bradford balky knee injury away from a Glennon start. Not a good thing.
Here’s the chart values of all the Cardinals draft picks:
The Cardinals #15 pick and #47 pick are worth 1480. The Bears’ #8 pick and #115 pick are worth 1464. We’re getting close. In essence the Bears would swap a 4th round pick for a 2nd round pick. The question is how far back will Mr. Pace go? Is he OK with a mid-first round pick?
Mr. Pace could also field calls from the Ravens and the Chargers who both have aging quarterbacks. But the team with the aging quarterback that’s most interesting farther back is the Patriots, who are holding two first round picks.
Here are the picks and values of the Patriots picks:
The Patriots could offer Mr. Pace their two first round picks and their 2nd third round pick (#23, #31, #95) for a total of 1480, for the Bears’ #8 pick. Three picks for one could be hard to pass up, plus Mr. Pace would also have a 3rd round pick again. As well, Mr. Pace might consider throwing in one of his two 4th round picks to finalize that deal.
But what about trading up? The hot rumor today is that the Colts are shopping the #6 overall pick and the Bears are interested:
If this rumor is true, the Bears may be targeting a player like Bradley Chubb or Quenton Nelson. Of course, Mr. Pace could just be doing his job and his due diligence. I never thought I’d say this, but could the fiery Puerto Rican Barkeep of the Bears Barroom actually be right? That the Bears agree with him and should trade up for a guard? Does Mr. Pace listen to Bears Hour Live? Probably not. But he should. The Guardfather would explode if Ryan Pace came on 100 Proof. (AirJer: can we set that up, please?)
So while Bears Girl is checking her vacation calendar in case Aldo explodes, let’s see what it might cost the Bears to move up two spots.
Here’s the value of all of the Colts draft picks:
The Colts’ #6 pick is worth 1600 points. That’s 200 points more than the Bears #8 pick. Both of the Bears’ 4th round picks don’t add up to the 200 point difference. But, the Bears and Colts could swap 2nd round picks, #39 for #49, and gain 100 points. They could then send their second 4th round pick (value of 64), their 5th round pick (value of 33) and their 7th round pick (value of 1.8) and be at 1598.8, which might be close enough.
Would Mr. Pace be comfortable with only 5 draft picks again this year? I think he would if it meant getting his guy. He’s traded up the previous two drafts. Exactly who is the Bears’ target this year remains a closely guarded secret (no pun intended, Aldo). Mr. Pace has always kept his cards close to the vest. But the Bears did in fact host the much-hyped Notre Dame guard for a pre-draft visit.
So Bears fans, while I humbly apologize for making you do math, I sincerely hope you’re enjoying the all the pre-Draft hype…the questions, the scouting reports, the banter and the arguments. To me, this has always been an exciting time of the season. It’s almost as exciting as game day, amiright? Let’s hear your thoughts on Twitter!
Cheers, Bears fans, and Bear Down!
bearsbarroom.com/bears-trade-back-2018-draft/
To Trade Back, Or Not To Trade Back! A Bears Barroom Look At Trading Picks In The 2018 NFL Draft
16
Apr, 2018
by John Santucci
To trade back, or not to trade back. That is the question. Whether ’tis nobler in the draft to follow one’s instinct, or suffer the barbs and derision of NFL pundits and social media keyboard warriors.
But hey man, this is the Barroom, and everything and nothing is sacred. It’s all fair game, and yet all is hallowed in Bears history and lore.
And these days, the prayer on the lips of Bears fans is, and has been for three years, “In Pace We Trust.”
So Bears fans: do you or don’t you trust Mr. Pace?
We are less than two weeks away from the 2018 NFL Draft. And while the Barroom is abuzz with opposing thoughts on taking a guard at #8 overall, I’m here wondering if Mr. Pace is ready to risk trading that #8 pick for more picks. I’m positive he wants that third round pick back…the one he sent to 49ers’ rookie general manager John Lynch so the Bears could move up in last year’s draft and secure their franchise quarterback, Mitchell Trubisky (the so-called “Pretty Boy Assassin”). I remember last year, after Mr. Pace traded up one spot to get Trubisky, there was some scorn and derision, some slings and arrows, from media and fans. Most of it was unhappiness or criticism concerning the move up of only one spot, how much the Bears gave up for that move, and whether or not Trubisky would have been there had the Bears’ stayed at their pick. But Pace was resolute: he wanted his franchise quarterback and he was right in thinking he wouldn’t be picking in the top 3 picks again anytime soon.
It turns out Mr. Pace was right. With a resurgent defense last season, the Bears finished 5-11, and now own the #8 overall pick. Furthermore, the #8 pick may fall out of the range of securing one of the top four quarterbacks in the 2018 NFL Draft. So it’s a damn good thing Mr. Pace secured his franchise quarterback last year, even if he had to trade up one spot to get him. I’ve got a feeling that more than a few glasses will be raised and more than a few shots will be knocked back in toasting Pace, Trubisky and Nagy everytime the Bears win. (Although knowing the Bears Barroom crowd a little bit, it’ll be every time the Bears score. To be honest, the Barroom doesn’t really need a good reason to knock back a few shots, amiright?)
So what would be a good value for this year’s #8 overall pick? And who are the Bears’ potential trade partners? Does Mr. Pace wait until Draft Day when the clock is ticking fast like thundering heartbeats? Does he entertain trade offers in these remaining days? The phone line should be open now, though it’s unlikely that Pace will be able to trade out of any of his picks before the draft. Sitting at 8, the draft likely has to unfold first. Can you feel the adrenaline yet?
According to the infamous “Jimmy Johnson Draft Pick Value Chart” (for an interactive version of the chart CLICK HERE) the Bears’ pick (#8 overall) is worth 1400 points. For reference, the Browns’ #1 overall pick is worth 3000 points, so the value drops off quickly, as the Bears’ pick (only seven picks later), is worth less than half of that Browns #1 overall pick.
This chart and a thorough explanation of how it works can be found at: harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/
While NFL teams are not bound to follow this chart, it’s become useful to GMs as a tool to help guide trade talks. The chart was devised by the Dallas Cowboys, and their finely-coiffed head coach, Jimmy Johnson in the 1990s, and it’s become the de facto standard for NFL teams to evaluate trades of draft picks. (And what good is a story that mentions Jimmy Johnson and doesn’t make note of his transcendent coiffure?)
So let’s try to deduce who might be looking at that #8 pick, shall we? Who might be buzzing Mr. Pace’s cell phone these next days leading up to, and during, the ticking seconds of the draft? Here are all of the Value Points for the Bears’ current picks (Profootballreference.com provides the team value graphics):
Let’s start with the team closest to the Bears’ pick, the Dolphins. The Dolphins are currently holding the #11 overall pick, so the Bears would only be trading back 3 spots, and could still get a very good player at #11. The Dolphins could be in the market for a quarterback this year, after a season-ending injury to the ineffective Ryan Tannehill, and season spent surviving Jay Cutler.
Here’s the value of all of the Dolphins picks:
To move up to #8, the Dolphins would likely have to send the Bears their #11 pick and their 3rd round pick (#73). The total value of those two picks is 1475. The Bears #8 pick is worth 1400 points, so the Bears might have to send a pick back to the Dolphins, for example their second 4th round pick or their 5th round pick to get closer to that 1475 value. Mr. Pace likely wants his 3rd round pick back, so this trade could be very appealing to him. If either Lamar Jackson or Baker Mayfield are still on the board at 8, the chances that teams like the Dolphins will look to trade up are good.
Right after the Dolphins’ pick is the Bills’ pick, #12 overall. This year the Bills have two 1st round picks. They are also holding the #22 overall pick as well. After trading their starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor to the Browns, the Bills are very likely to trade up for one of the top 5 quarterbacks. As of today, the Bills starting quarterback is former Bengals backup A.J. McCarron.
Here are the Bills’ picks along with their values:
In order for the Bears to get both of the Bills’ first round picks, they would likely have to give back a pick along with their 1st round pick. The value of the Bills’ 2 picks is 1980, so the Bears would have to send their 2nd round pick to Buffalo and possibly another pick in order to get to a value of 1980. That doesn’t sound like too good a deal since the Bears would in essence be giving 3 picks for 2. If the Bills accepted our #8 pick and a lower pick, in essence two picks for two picks, perhaps Mr. Pace would consider it. The Bills have other picks to trade as well, and aren’t bound to trade both first round picks. A combination of picks with #12 overall could be an option here as it would mean the Bears would not be trading back too far from their #8 spot. An example would be the Bears #8 pick, valued at 1400, for the Bills #12 pick and #65 pick, valued in total at 1465. As well, the Bears could throw in a lower pick, but are bargaining from a position of advantage. You get the idea. Exciting isn’t it?
The Redskins may also be a possible trade partner. They may be a team looking for a quarterback to groom behind veteran signal caller Alex Smith. They let their former starting quarterback sign with the Vikings, saying goodbye to Kirk Cousins, who signed a monster contract with the Bears’ division rivals, the Vikings.
Here are the Redskins picks along with their values:
Like the Bears, the Redskins are without a third round pick (sent to the Chiefs for QB Alex Smith), so in addition to the #13 pick, they’d have to send a 2nd round pick, or a combination of other picks for the Bears’ #8 pick. The Redskins’ #13 pick and #44 pick are a total value of 1610. The Bears’ #8 pick and #105 pick are a total value of 1484, so the Redskins are looking like a poor trading partner for the Bears. Even if the Redskins offer picks 13, 109, 142, 163, 188, 231 and 241, they still can’t get to the value of the Bears #8 pick. The Redskins or Bears would likely have to delve into offering a 2019 draft pick in order to complete a trade.
The Cardinals present a better trading partner as far as finding equal value with the Bears’ picks. And they also might be looking for a quarterback in this draft. They parted ways with all of their quarterbacks this offseason. Carson Palmer retired, and the other quarterbacks were all free agents who have not yet been brought back. So, the Cards signed brittle, former Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford to start, and former Bears failed free agent Mike Glennon to back him up. That set-up doesn’t even look good on paper. The Cards are a Sam Bradford balky knee injury away from a Glennon start. Not a good thing.
Here’s the chart values of all the Cardinals draft picks:
The Cardinals #15 pick and #47 pick are worth 1480. The Bears’ #8 pick and #115 pick are worth 1464. We’re getting close. In essence the Bears would swap a 4th round pick for a 2nd round pick. The question is how far back will Mr. Pace go? Is he OK with a mid-first round pick?
Mr. Pace could also field calls from the Ravens and the Chargers who both have aging quarterbacks. But the team with the aging quarterback that’s most interesting farther back is the Patriots, who are holding two first round picks.
Here are the picks and values of the Patriots picks:
The Patriots could offer Mr. Pace their two first round picks and their 2nd third round pick (#23, #31, #95) for a total of 1480, for the Bears’ #8 pick. Three picks for one could be hard to pass up, plus Mr. Pace would also have a 3rd round pick again. As well, Mr. Pace might consider throwing in one of his two 4th round picks to finalize that deal.
But what about trading up? The hot rumor today is that the Colts are shopping the #6 overall pick and the Bears are interested:
If this rumor is true, the Bears may be targeting a player like Bradley Chubb or Quenton Nelson. Of course, Mr. Pace could just be doing his job and his due diligence. I never thought I’d say this, but could the fiery Puerto Rican Barkeep of the Bears Barroom actually be right? That the Bears agree with him and should trade up for a guard? Does Mr. Pace listen to Bears Hour Live? Probably not. But he should. The Guardfather would explode if Ryan Pace came on 100 Proof. (AirJer: can we set that up, please?)
So while Bears Girl is checking her vacation calendar in case Aldo explodes, let’s see what it might cost the Bears to move up two spots.
Here’s the value of all of the Colts draft picks:
The Colts’ #6 pick is worth 1600 points. That’s 200 points more than the Bears #8 pick. Both of the Bears’ 4th round picks don’t add up to the 200 point difference. But, the Bears and Colts could swap 2nd round picks, #39 for #49, and gain 100 points. They could then send their second 4th round pick (value of 64), their 5th round pick (value of 33) and their 7th round pick (value of 1.8) and be at 1598.8, which might be close enough.
Would Mr. Pace be comfortable with only 5 draft picks again this year? I think he would if it meant getting his guy. He’s traded up the previous two drafts. Exactly who is the Bears’ target this year remains a closely guarded secret (no pun intended, Aldo). Mr. Pace has always kept his cards close to the vest. But the Bears did in fact host the much-hyped Notre Dame guard for a pre-draft visit.
So Bears fans, while I humbly apologize for making you do math, I sincerely hope you’re enjoying the all the pre-Draft hype…the questions, the scouting reports, the banter and the arguments. To me, this has always been an exciting time of the season. It’s almost as exciting as game day, amiright? Let’s hear your thoughts on Twitter!
Cheers, Bears fans, and Bear Down!
