Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2018 13:22:54 GMT -6
5 boom-or-bust prospects for the 2018 NFL Draft
By Sam Monson • Mar 28, 2018
Every year, there are prospects that ‘wow’ talent evaluators and fans alike with their physical prowess or their immense production, but red flags and significant issues make them riskier prospects to actually draft and rely upon. Today, we take a look at five such players from the 2018 NFL Draft:
Arden Key – Edge – LSU
This is not a good draft for edge rush talent, and it wasn’t a good free agency period for it either, so this draft may see some players selected higher than they would in another year. In 2016, Key had 12 sacks, 13 hits and 29 hurries, but that came before bailing on the team before spring practice only to return and underwhelm in 2017.
Last season, he generated just 28 total pressures, 26 fewer than the season before, and struggled through injuries. Key also weighed in at 238-pounds at the combine despite standing 6-foot-5 in height. That is an alarming lack of bulk for a player hoping to see extensive time as an edge defender at the next level. As much as undersized pass-rushers have excelled in the past, they have typically been shorter players whose lack of overall mass is offset by being tightly packed and compact body types.
There are multiple red flags surrounding Key, but his 2016 pressure production was fantastic and in a draft without many truly talented edge rushers, he represents an interesting gamble for a team needing to address that hole in the roster.
Tyrell Crosby – OT – Oregon
Tyrell Crosby was a physical force at Oregon, relying on a size and strength advantage to overwhelm defenders at the point of attack. It worked to an impressive degree and he had two seasons with an overall PFF grade of 85.0 or better, and he ended last season at a career-best mark of 87.3. Crosby allowed just seven total pressures across 13 games and was a force in the run game.
The problem is, for a player who relied so much on size and strength, he tended to absorb defenders rather than overpower them and drive them out of the hole, which may call into question his biggest strength at the next level.
As good as his pass-blocking numbers were, they were skewed by the system at Oregon where the quick pass was king. On average, the ball came out of the quarterbacks hands in under 2.5 seconds at Oregon last year. At the Senior Bowl, Crosby did well against almost everybody, but struggled against Oklahoma’s Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, a smaller edge rusher who was able to get Crosby off balance and work under his typical leverage. The NFL isn’t stacked with smaller pass-rushers, but there are plenty of players that can target that weakness and exploit leverage mismatches to expose Crosby more as a pass blocker.
Big tackles bring an inherent tension between the positives that size brings and the negative side effect that size typically has on movement skills and agility. Crosby’s tape and numbers are impressive, but there will be concern about his capability of replicating it at the next level.
