Post by Deleted on Jan 1, 2018 9:16:34 GMT -6
10 thoughts on the Bears' 5-11 season and what's next at Halas Hall
Brad BiggsBrad BiggsContact ReporterChicago Tribune
Link: www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-bears-john-fox-10-thoughts-20171231-story.html
10 thoughts after the Chicago Bears closed out the 2017 season in what was likely the final game for coach John Fox with a 23-10 loss Sunday to the NFC North champion Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.
1. My expectation is the Bears will announce that coach John Fox has been relieved of his duties with one year remaining on his contract Monday morning. My hunch is Fox will be given an opportunity to meet with his players and from there things will be in motion at Halas Hall. Players will be making their way out and into the offseason, and I fully expect general manager Ryan Pace and perhaps chairman of the board George McCaskey to hold a media session at some point during the day. Some have wondered out loud if this will be pushed back a day or two because of the holiday and I say no way. Pace needs to move on with business, the most important business he’s had since being hired three years ago, and that’s to run a coaching search to identify the 16th coach in franchise history. Yes, this is assuming Pace retains his job — but all signs I’ve picked up so far point in that very direction.
Pace needs to take his turn in front of the cameras and microphones, something that Fox has done five times per week all season long. He’s got to share his vision for the future and at the same time explain his part in the organization’s 14-34 record over the past three seasons. What’s gone right? What’s gone wrong? What needs to be fixed and in what order? You would expect a key talking point for Pace to be the experience young players have received this season and there’s definite truth to that. The Bears also played a lot of young players in 2016 and perhaps more than you would think in 2015. They don’t have the results to show for it yet. He will, no doubt, hit on the invaluable experience that quarterback Mitch Trubisky gained as a rookie and highlight the rest of the draft class with running back Tarik Cohen and free safety Eddie Jackson making some contributions with faith in tight end Adam Shaheen moving ahead to next season. I think Pace has to take some ownership for the health issues that have plagued the roster. The Bears can’t dump that all on Fox’s plate and, at the minimum, I would expect changes in the strength and conditioning staff in 2018. A lot of people have submitted for changes to the training staff and that could be on the table too but the first issue the Bears have to determine is why the players are getting injured. The trainers get them when they’re injured and the Bears have had too many players injured.
Although Pace doesn’t hold a lot of media sessions, he usually does pretty well. This is going to be a challenging one for him and I’m curious to see how he performs. If he does well, he’s got the chance to maybe win over some of the fans that are on the fence about the job he has done and have been advocating for more sweeping changes at Halas Hall. He’s got to be real, he’s got to be decisive and he’s got to spell out a plan that sounds not only achievable but daring as well. He’s got to be humble and he’s got to clearly spell out some of the improvements that are going to be made. Broad generalizations that sound great but are thin on detail — those don’t work as well. Pace has a lot of work ahead in the coming weeks, work that can shift the fortunes of the franchise as the Bears are now tied for the third-longest playoff drought in the NFL after the Bills broke their 17-year drought. Buffalo wasn’t the only club to get off the schneid. The Rams, Jaguars and Titans all ended significant postseason droughts. Those four teams, the Bills included, accounted for four of the league’s six-longest playoff droughts entering this season. The Browns haven’t been to the playoffs since 2002 and it’s been 2007 since the Buccaneers reached the postseason. Next up are the Bears and Jets in 2010. Let’s hear what Pace has to say.
2. Probably the most popular question I’ve gotten on social media and my weekly mailbag in the last two weeks has been about defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Is there a chance Fangio could be hired as head coach? Is there a scenario in which Fangio, who is coming out of contract, could remain in his current role and agree to work for a new head coach?
Let me just say I think Fangio would be ecstatic at the opportunity to become a head coach and it would not surprise me if Pace interviews him for the position. I also would not be surprised if Fangio gets at least one head-coaching interview elsewhere.
I believe the Bears’ preference is to hire a head coach with an offensive background, but they would be foolish to not consider coaches from all backgrounds and Fangio has done excellent work on defense with a roster that is still in need of more playmakers (and improved health). Fangio needs to have a plan on offense and would likely need to convince Pace that he can bring a talented and impressive offensive coordinator into Halas Hall to completely revamp that side of the ball. One source suggested to me that Fangio might be able to get paired up with Rams offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, who might just be allowed to leave Los Angeles by coach Sean McVay provided it is for a coordinator position that includes play-calling responsibilities. Obviously, McVay is the one calling the plays for the Rams right now. In that scenario, perhaps Fangio has a shot and you maintain stability on that side of the ball.
In the event the Bears hire an offensive-minded head coach, I think the chances of retaining Fangio are reduced but I wouldn’t rule it out. He’s believed to be the second-highest paid defensive coordinator in the NFL right now, probably behind only Wade Phillips of the Rams, and if the Bears bucked up in a big way – who knows – maybe they could get Fangio to stay. He’d certainly pair better with a head coach with an offensive background as that kind of the relationship would offer him more autonomy on defense. A dream scenario has to be luring Jim Harbaugh away from the University of Michigan and having him and Fangio get the old band back together.
14 potential head-coaching candidates for the Bears
The Bears are expected to begin their third search for a head coach since 2013, and there’s no question they will put an emphasis on finding someone with an offensive background who can bring out the talents of quarterback Mitch Trubisky. But just because they will prioritize an offensive coach doesn’t rule out coaches with other backgrounds.
Here are thumbnails of 14 candidates the Bears might consider. (Brad Biggs)
Whatever the situation is, I believe Fangio will have multiple opportunities elsewhere. Some people I have spoken to strongly believe he will be the top choice of Packers coach Mike McCarthy to replace Dom Capers. It makes perfect sense. Fangio can pick up the 3-4 that Green Bay has in place and put his spin on it. He’s familiar with the division. It would be a no-brainer. I’ve had others rattle off the Ravens, where Dean Pees is expected to retired as defensive coordinator, Raiders, where it’s believed Jon Gruden will be seeking a defensive mastermind, as real possibilities. Also consider the possibilities in Philadelphia if Jim Schwartz, the Eagles defensive coordinator, departs to become a head coach again. I wouldn’t rule out Fangio to Philadelphia. Yes, Fangio could easily convert to a 4-3 coordinator. One more possible destination? Don’t rule out the 49ers. Fangio was the top choice by Kyle Shanahan a year ago and the 49ers wound up hiring Robert Saleh for the job when it was determined they couldn’t get Fangio. Could Shanahan reconfigure his staff? You certainly can’t rule that out. Interestingly, Fangio and Saleh are represented by the same agent. There’s a lot of intrigue with Fangio and it’s for good reason.
3. There’s a real human element to coaching staffs being fired and that’s part of the job that they all know and understand when they sign up for the profession. The position coaches, the assistant position coaches, the quality control assistants and even the coordinators make a fraction of what the head coach earns. Some of these coaches are younger guys with families and they’re forced to scramble to find the next spot. It’s not easy but it’s part of the business. You would think there is a chance that maybe one or two of the coaches currently in the building could remain in place. Yes, if Fangio was to become head coach, there could be more than one or two but Fangio is probably a bit of a longshot right now. What position coaches might be able to stick around? Pure speculation here but I think the Bears like tight ends coach Frank Smith. I believe they’re high on the work defensive line coach Jay Rodgers has done the past couple years. Those two jump out and perhaps offensive line coach Jeremiah Washburn if he’s got perhaps some type of connection with the new head coach. A lot of teams view the offensive coach as the most important of the position coaches and so he’d probably have to be tied in somehow. As far as offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains, three sources say they believe offensive he will reunite with Adam Gase in Miami. We’ll have to wait and see what shakes out, but all three were pretty confident that happens.
4. The No. 1 potential free-agent wide receiver won’t be reaching the open market in March as the Packers finalized a four-year extension for Davante Adams on Friday. Adams signed a $58 million, four-year extension that will reportedly pay him $32 million in the first two years of the deal. The contract makes Adams the highest-paid receiver in Green Bay and the annual average of $14.5 million ranks fourth in the NFL behind Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green. General manager Ted Thompson has a strong record of keeping the club’s best players in place and that’s what happened here. It sure would have been interesting had we gotten to March without a deal being done because the Packers have been hesitant to use the franchise tag and had things gone that far, maybe Adams would have made it to free agency. The timing is interesting because Adams held a ton of leverage entering a Week 17 game he will not suit up for because of a concussion. But there’s a real draw to being able to catch passes from Rodgers and that’s certainly helped Thompson build the roster over the years. Take slightly more money to play elsewhere with a quarterback that isn’t nearly as good or stay with the club that drafted and developed you with one of the very best passers in the game?
The Bears, as everyone knows, must completely overhaul the depth chart at wide receiver. That starts with identifying what they have on their own roster right now – complementary players, at best – and then forecasting ahead to the draft where top-end talent looks to be thin right now based on multiple scouts I have chatted with over the last few months. More on some draft chatter a little later on.
What will be available in free agency with Adams and Alshon Jeffery (contract extended by the Eagles) taken off the market?
Jarvis Landry of the Dolphins, Sammy Watkins of the Rams and Paul Richardson of the Seahawks project as the top three according to one pro personnel director I chatted with on Saturday during a nifty weather delay at O’Hare. And there is a big drop off after that.
“Landry and Sammy are the top guys and I like Sammy more because he’s a bigger guy whereas Landry is really a slot receiver,” the pro director said. “Now, he’s a damn good one and he will change the culture of your team because he is one damn tough son of a gun. You need guys like that. I think the Rams probably wind up re-signing Sammy. My hunch is he wants to stay with Los Angeles and if that happens you’re left with Landry and Paul Richardson and I would go with Landry between those two all day long.
“Richardson kind of reminds me of Ted Ginn earlier in his career. He’s still trying to come into his own a little bit and he’s been affected by injuries. Look at their frames, they’re built similarly. (Richardson) has been dinged up. Ginn has put on some weight now since he came in, filled out a little as far as his legs and his chest, and he’s never really been a full-time starter. More of a complementary guy for you.
“There’s just not going to be a lot out there, you know. We’ll have to see who gets cut, who the cap casualties are. But right now off the top of my head, I can’t see a difference-maker getting released. Even Landry, at the end of the day, we’re talking about a slot receiver.
“Maybe Randall Cobb has to re-do his contract in Green Bay or, who knows, maybe he winds up being a cap cut but we’re talking about another slot receiver and one that’s not as good as Landry. I think Landry becomes a free agent but like I said, I think Watkins is re-signed by the Rams. They have the money and the cap space to do it. They’ve got to sign Aaron Donald but they’ll probably let Trumaine Johnson walk because they’ve already tagged him twice. He’s OK but you just can’t trust him to show up every game.
“Watkins doesn’t have the numbers you’re asking me about (39 receptions, 593 yards, eight touchdowns) because they’re a balanced team. He doesn’t need to be Superman. They’ve got the MVP of the league, or the guy that probably should be MVP running the ball there. (Robert) Woods has had a good year and (Cooper) Kupp has had a good year. That’s because teams are playing Watkins deep and it’s opened up the stuff underneath and the run game. You have to pay for that, OK? He’s getting the double and the high safety to his side. What does that is open up Kupp for an option route and a bend route and Woods for a dig. The run game flourishes because if you play eight in the box, they’re gonna hit you deep. He means a lot to them and that’s why I think they pay him.”
Landry has 391 receptions since entering the league in 2014 and has 103 catches for 895 yards this season. Richardson has posted career-highs this season with 44 catches for 703 yards and six touchdowns. He combined for only 51 receptions in his first three seasons. After these guys, one potential target is Allen Robinson, but he is headed to free agency after suffering a torn ACL in his left knee on his first reception of this season in Week 1. I think Robinson could still be a pretty attractive free agent and you can’t rule out the Bears making a run at hime. Some think Robinson, who had 80 catches for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2015, will re-sign in Jacksonville. One thing to keep in mind with Robinson: He’s only 24. Then there’s Terrelle Pryor, who took a $6 million, one-year deal to gamble on himself with the Redskins and didn’t produce much. He suffered an ankle injury in Week 2 and wound up on injured reserve in November after having arthroscopic surgery. Pryor was plagued by dropped passes and wound up with 20 catches for 240 yards and one touchdown.
One more thing to remember when it comes to wide receivers and free agency: The Bears couldn’t get any takers last year because their quarterback situation was a total unknown. They’ve got the quarterback situation resolved now and I think Trubisky and a wide open depth chart allows them to attract some guys along with those big checks that come along with free agency.
5. Kudos to Rich Campbell for nailing the Bears’ draft situation. They’re picking eighth in the first round, up one slot than they projected to be thanks to the 49ers closing out the season on fire with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. San Francisco got to 6-10 leaving the Bears in a three-way tie that they lost. Still, they’re picking ahead of the 49ers now and were likely to be behind them and selecting ninth if San Francisco had lost on Sunday.
This is a good spot to be in the draft with the seven picks ahead of the Bears as follows: 1. Browns, 2. Giants, 3. Colts, 4. Browns (from Texans), 5. Broncos, 6. Jets, 7. Buccaneers. The Browns, Giants, Broncos and Jets all have quarterback issues. Maybe one of those teams solves the issue in free agency. You could have two and maybe even three quarterbacks drafted in the first seven picks. I kind of doubt there will be three go that high right now and maybe there’s only one, you never know, but from the Bears’ perspective, the more the merrier. That pushes elite talent at the other positions to the Bears.
Provided the Bears hold at No. 8, it will be the first time they have selected from that spot since 2001 when they chose Michigan wide receiver David Terrell. The other No. 8 picks in Bears’ history:
1976 Dennis Lick, OT, Wisconsin
1973 Wally Chambers, DT, Eastern Kentucky
1952 Jim Dooley, HB, Miami
1944 Roy Evans, HB, Kansas
1937 Les McDonald, end, Nebraska
It’s interesting to see what the No. 8 pick has produced in the last decade. There are some pretty good players on this list and some pretty big misses.
2017 Panthers, Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
2016 Titans, Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
2015 Falcons, Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
2014 Browns, Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
2013 Rams, Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
2012 Dolphins, Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
2011 Titans, Jake Locker, QB, Washington
2010 Raiders, Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
2009 Jaguars, Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
2008 Jaguars, Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
Conklin (OT), Gilbert (CB), Austin (WR) and McClain (LB) were the first players at their position group selected in their respective classes. McCaffrey (RB), Beasley (edge rusher), Locker (QB) and Harvey (DE) were the second players at their position group selected in their respective classes. Finally, Tannehill (QB) and Monroe (OT) were the third players at their position group selected in their respective classes. I include that you offer a little recent data on what you can expect from that draft position.
6. A little more draft chatter as we’re in 2018 and it’s definitely time to focus ahead – and not back – with the Bears. I’ve talked to a number of college scouts throughout the season and none of them have been super excited about the crop of wide receivers that will be available. But a college scouting director that I caught up with Saturday evening painted a more optimistic picture than some of the others I’ve talked too so far. He feels pretty good about Alabama’s Calvin Ridley and SMU’s Courtland Sutton. Some I’ve talked to have knocked Ridley’s hands and a couple scouts I have spoken to are lukewarm on Sutton and like him as a No. 2 receiver.
The scouting director I caught up with called Ridley and Sutton both studs but reiterated what others have said when he called it a thin class in terms of top-end talent.
“That’s not always a bad thing,” he said. “You can still get good value mid- to late. You don’t always have to blow it up up top. You can always get something done in the third our fourth (rounds).”
Common sense dictates the Bears will be in the market for pass rushers and cornerbacks in the draft as well. As usual, you’re going to have to get good cover corners with size in the top two rounds or they will all be gone. The scouting director was pretty high on the crop of edge rushers for the draft and provided a name to keep an eye on for the Senior Bowl – Texas-San Antonio’s Marcus Davenport. The school lists Davenport at 6-foot-6, 250 pounds, and he had 7 ½ sacks and 15 ½ tackles for loss last season.
“If this kid isn’t the talk of the Senior Bowl I’ll be shocked,” the director said. “You are going to start hearing a lot about this kid.”
Plenty more to come but it was interesting to encounter a guy who likes Ridley and Sutton both and had a small-school name to provide for the Senior Bowl later this month.
7. There is some level of uncertainty for the Bears regarding the future for left guard Josh Sitton. The 31-year-old just finished his 10th season and missed the final three games with a right ankle injury. Sitton was injured against the Lions when center Hroniss Grasu fell back over Sitton’s right leg. His contract runs through the 2018 season and the Bears have an option in Sitton’s contract that must be executed between Feb. 9 — five days after Super Bowl LII — and March 9 — five days before the start of the new league year. The option is for $8 million — $7.4 million in base salary with a $500,000 roster bonus and a $100,000 workout bonus.
I asked Sitton where he’s at right now and he went from “day-to-day” to sounding relatively confident he would be back next season. The new coaching staff will certainly have a say in personnel issues. Hard to handicap this one right now. Sitton might not be the player he once was in Green Bay, but he was a Pro Bowl replacement last season and he remains elite in pass blocking because he’s technically sound and has tremendous football IQ. He can anticipate what is coming and where it is coming from. Losing Sitton would only add to the list of parts the Bears need to add this offseason. As we’ve seen, they’re too short right now on the offensive line and were really stung when they lost interior swing man Eric Kush to a torn hamstring in training camp.
“I’ve taken things day-by-day for the past couple years,” Sitton said. “I feel really good. I would say that if I had to answer your question, I definitely see myself playing football for the next couple years. Definitely see myself playing. I don’t feel like this is my last season.”
It’s too early to tell when fellow guard Kyle Long will be mended. He underwent neck surgery in December and hinted on social media that it was the first of three surgeries he would be having. One would figure he’s got shoulder surgery and perhaps hand surgery ahead based on injuries that plagued him this season. Being without Sitton could leave the Bears exposed and they will have to make a decision sooner rather than later. The new staff will likely have a say in the process and the Bears have to make a decision before free agency.
8. There is a lot of heavy lifting to do when it comes to the roster and a lot of big moves to be made, but keep in mind all three specialists are coming out of contract and headed to free agency. Bigger dominoes will fall this offseason, but the Bears need to determine what they are doing at kicker, punter and long snapper. Mike Nugent banged through a 55-yard field goal in the loss but he’s 35 (turns 36 in March) and I’d expect the team would have younger options in mind first. The sense I get is the Bears would like to re-sign Cairo Santos, who they added in late November only to lose him to a groin muscle injury. Santos has undergone sports hernia surgery and is on the mend. He’ll get a job somewhere and it could be with the Bears.
Punter Pat O’Donnell had a career-best gross average of 47.0 yards this season and tied his career-best with a net of 39.7. He dropped 27 punts inside the 20-yard line and had only six touchbacks. With just slightly better coverage, he easily would have had a net over 40.
Now that’s he’s headed to free agency, I asked him if a dome or weather would factor in his thinking.
“It’s different in that regard,” O’Donnell said. “You could probably put up better numbers inside or in warmer weather but at the end of the day, I’m really happy here and whatever is going to happen is going to happen. I let the agent take care of that.”
We’ll see what happens with O’Donnell moving forward and keep an eye on Santos.
9. We’ve known the Bears’ opponents for the 2018 season for a while. Now we can note that the schedule will include four opponents (Vikings, Rams, Patriots, Bills) that will be coming off a playoff appearance and that means five games against 2017 playoff teams (they will play the Vikings twice). They faced four opponents in 2017 that participated in the 2016 playoffs – Atlanta, Detroit, Green Bay and Pittsburgh. It’s also interesting to note that right now it looks like there will be potentially three opponents for next season that have new head coaches. The Giants already have an opening and the Lions and Cardinals could both be headed in that direction.
2018 home games: Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle, New England, New York Jets, Tampa Bay
2018 road games: Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota, Arizona, San Francisco, Buffalo, Miami, New York Giants
10. By my count the Bears had a total of 27 players spend time on the practice squad this season. The figure was 30 in each of the first two seasons under Pace, so the turnover happened at a similar rate. Ten of those 27 players spent time on the 53-man roster. Last season, the Bears had 14 of the 30 practice squad players reach the 53-man roster and in 2015 it was 13 of 30. The glass half-full way of looking at that is the Bears have signed some players they feel have picked up what they were doing in practice and been able to contribute. The glass half-empty way of looking at it is the Bears have had far too many injuries that have necessitated a slew of roster moves that has, in the process, eroded roster depth. Seven of the 27 practice squad players that came through were wide receivers with Tanner Gentry and Tre McBride the only two to reach the 53.
10a. Cornerback Kyle Fuller is – far and away – the biggest free agent the Bears have to handle this offseason. Something worth keeping in mind about Fuller. He and Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson, also expected to be one of the top free agent cornerbacks, are both represented by Lagardere Unlimited, the agency headed up by veteran agent Joel Segal. Add New England’s Malcolm Butler to the list of projected top available cornerbacks. I’ve got to think some way, somehow the Bears wind up with one of those three … or try like heck to.
10b. The Vikings signed long snapper Jeff Overbaugh on Tuesday after he flew in on Monday (Christmas Day) for a workout on Tuesday. Their long snapper Kevin McDermott was placed on injured reserve with a dislocated left shoulder and Overbaugh won a tryout. The reason I mention this is because it looked like Overbaugh was going to be the long snapper for the Bears late in preseason after Patrick Scales suffered a torn ACL and before Andrew DePaolo was brought in. Overbaugh trained with former Bears long snapper Pat Mannelly in the past and credited that with keeping him on the path to landing a job. Get this: Overbaugh had 11 tryouts this season before signing with the Vikings. That means more than one-third of the NFL brought him in for a look. Now, he’s got a chance to collect playoff checks with the Vikings.
10c. The Bears opened training camp saying tight end was one of the strengths on the roster. The new coaching staff has to find a way to get more out of this group. A lot of folks have chimed in about second-round pick Shaheen and he needs to develop more but 15 catches for 180 yards and one touchdown from Dion Sims, who was signed for $10 million guaranteed in an $18 million, three-year deal? That doesn’t quite get it done.
10d. The Bears finished the season with eight interceptions. That ties the franchise-low that was set in 2015 and then repeated again last season. Twenty-four interceptions in three seasons? Put those defensive backs to work on the Jugs machine. On the flip side, they had 42 sacks, the most since the 2001 team totaled 48.
10e. Lack of attention to detail? Yes, that was the 2017 Bears. They were called for 115 penalties, the most by a Bears team since they had 124 in 2004. Opponents were called for 118 penalties this season.
10f. Most underappreciated move of the year? That has to be signing left tackle Charles Leno to a $38 million, four-year extension that included $21.5 million guaranteed. The market for offensive tackles in free agency is a hot mess and Leno would have commanded $11 million per year, maybe more had he played out the deal and headed to free agency. He chose security and that’s a wise move, especially for a former seventh-round draft pick that didn’t have a big signing bonus to fall back on if something went awry.
10g. Hope everyone had a great New Year’s celebration. Thanks for following along with 10 thoughts this season.
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Brad BiggsBrad BiggsContact ReporterChicago Tribune
Link: www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-bears-john-fox-10-thoughts-20171231-story.html
10 thoughts after the Chicago Bears closed out the 2017 season in what was likely the final game for coach John Fox with a 23-10 loss Sunday to the NFC North champion Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.
1. My expectation is the Bears will announce that coach John Fox has been relieved of his duties with one year remaining on his contract Monday morning. My hunch is Fox will be given an opportunity to meet with his players and from there things will be in motion at Halas Hall. Players will be making their way out and into the offseason, and I fully expect general manager Ryan Pace and perhaps chairman of the board George McCaskey to hold a media session at some point during the day. Some have wondered out loud if this will be pushed back a day or two because of the holiday and I say no way. Pace needs to move on with business, the most important business he’s had since being hired three years ago, and that’s to run a coaching search to identify the 16th coach in franchise history. Yes, this is assuming Pace retains his job — but all signs I’ve picked up so far point in that very direction.
Pace needs to take his turn in front of the cameras and microphones, something that Fox has done five times per week all season long. He’s got to share his vision for the future and at the same time explain his part in the organization’s 14-34 record over the past three seasons. What’s gone right? What’s gone wrong? What needs to be fixed and in what order? You would expect a key talking point for Pace to be the experience young players have received this season and there’s definite truth to that. The Bears also played a lot of young players in 2016 and perhaps more than you would think in 2015. They don’t have the results to show for it yet. He will, no doubt, hit on the invaluable experience that quarterback Mitch Trubisky gained as a rookie and highlight the rest of the draft class with running back Tarik Cohen and free safety Eddie Jackson making some contributions with faith in tight end Adam Shaheen moving ahead to next season. I think Pace has to take some ownership for the health issues that have plagued the roster. The Bears can’t dump that all on Fox’s plate and, at the minimum, I would expect changes in the strength and conditioning staff in 2018. A lot of people have submitted for changes to the training staff and that could be on the table too but the first issue the Bears have to determine is why the players are getting injured. The trainers get them when they’re injured and the Bears have had too many players injured.
Although Pace doesn’t hold a lot of media sessions, he usually does pretty well. This is going to be a challenging one for him and I’m curious to see how he performs. If he does well, he’s got the chance to maybe win over some of the fans that are on the fence about the job he has done and have been advocating for more sweeping changes at Halas Hall. He’s got to be real, he’s got to be decisive and he’s got to spell out a plan that sounds not only achievable but daring as well. He’s got to be humble and he’s got to clearly spell out some of the improvements that are going to be made. Broad generalizations that sound great but are thin on detail — those don’t work as well. Pace has a lot of work ahead in the coming weeks, work that can shift the fortunes of the franchise as the Bears are now tied for the third-longest playoff drought in the NFL after the Bills broke their 17-year drought. Buffalo wasn’t the only club to get off the schneid. The Rams, Jaguars and Titans all ended significant postseason droughts. Those four teams, the Bills included, accounted for four of the league’s six-longest playoff droughts entering this season. The Browns haven’t been to the playoffs since 2002 and it’s been 2007 since the Buccaneers reached the postseason. Next up are the Bears and Jets in 2010. Let’s hear what Pace has to say.
2. Probably the most popular question I’ve gotten on social media and my weekly mailbag in the last two weeks has been about defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Is there a chance Fangio could be hired as head coach? Is there a scenario in which Fangio, who is coming out of contract, could remain in his current role and agree to work for a new head coach?
Let me just say I think Fangio would be ecstatic at the opportunity to become a head coach and it would not surprise me if Pace interviews him for the position. I also would not be surprised if Fangio gets at least one head-coaching interview elsewhere.
I believe the Bears’ preference is to hire a head coach with an offensive background, but they would be foolish to not consider coaches from all backgrounds and Fangio has done excellent work on defense with a roster that is still in need of more playmakers (and improved health). Fangio needs to have a plan on offense and would likely need to convince Pace that he can bring a talented and impressive offensive coordinator into Halas Hall to completely revamp that side of the ball. One source suggested to me that Fangio might be able to get paired up with Rams offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, who might just be allowed to leave Los Angeles by coach Sean McVay provided it is for a coordinator position that includes play-calling responsibilities. Obviously, McVay is the one calling the plays for the Rams right now. In that scenario, perhaps Fangio has a shot and you maintain stability on that side of the ball.
In the event the Bears hire an offensive-minded head coach, I think the chances of retaining Fangio are reduced but I wouldn’t rule it out. He’s believed to be the second-highest paid defensive coordinator in the NFL right now, probably behind only Wade Phillips of the Rams, and if the Bears bucked up in a big way – who knows – maybe they could get Fangio to stay. He’d certainly pair better with a head coach with an offensive background as that kind of the relationship would offer him more autonomy on defense. A dream scenario has to be luring Jim Harbaugh away from the University of Michigan and having him and Fangio get the old band back together.
14 potential head-coaching candidates for the Bears
The Bears are expected to begin their third search for a head coach since 2013, and there’s no question they will put an emphasis on finding someone with an offensive background who can bring out the talents of quarterback Mitch Trubisky. But just because they will prioritize an offensive coach doesn’t rule out coaches with other backgrounds.
Here are thumbnails of 14 candidates the Bears might consider. (Brad Biggs)
Whatever the situation is, I believe Fangio will have multiple opportunities elsewhere. Some people I have spoken to strongly believe he will be the top choice of Packers coach Mike McCarthy to replace Dom Capers. It makes perfect sense. Fangio can pick up the 3-4 that Green Bay has in place and put his spin on it. He’s familiar with the division. It would be a no-brainer. I’ve had others rattle off the Ravens, where Dean Pees is expected to retired as defensive coordinator, Raiders, where it’s believed Jon Gruden will be seeking a defensive mastermind, as real possibilities. Also consider the possibilities in Philadelphia if Jim Schwartz, the Eagles defensive coordinator, departs to become a head coach again. I wouldn’t rule out Fangio to Philadelphia. Yes, Fangio could easily convert to a 4-3 coordinator. One more possible destination? Don’t rule out the 49ers. Fangio was the top choice by Kyle Shanahan a year ago and the 49ers wound up hiring Robert Saleh for the job when it was determined they couldn’t get Fangio. Could Shanahan reconfigure his staff? You certainly can’t rule that out. Interestingly, Fangio and Saleh are represented by the same agent. There’s a lot of intrigue with Fangio and it’s for good reason.
3. There’s a real human element to coaching staffs being fired and that’s part of the job that they all know and understand when they sign up for the profession. The position coaches, the assistant position coaches, the quality control assistants and even the coordinators make a fraction of what the head coach earns. Some of these coaches are younger guys with families and they’re forced to scramble to find the next spot. It’s not easy but it’s part of the business. You would think there is a chance that maybe one or two of the coaches currently in the building could remain in place. Yes, if Fangio was to become head coach, there could be more than one or two but Fangio is probably a bit of a longshot right now. What position coaches might be able to stick around? Pure speculation here but I think the Bears like tight ends coach Frank Smith. I believe they’re high on the work defensive line coach Jay Rodgers has done the past couple years. Those two jump out and perhaps offensive line coach Jeremiah Washburn if he’s got perhaps some type of connection with the new head coach. A lot of teams view the offensive coach as the most important of the position coaches and so he’d probably have to be tied in somehow. As far as offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains, three sources say they believe offensive he will reunite with Adam Gase in Miami. We’ll have to wait and see what shakes out, but all three were pretty confident that happens.
4. The No. 1 potential free-agent wide receiver won’t be reaching the open market in March as the Packers finalized a four-year extension for Davante Adams on Friday. Adams signed a $58 million, four-year extension that will reportedly pay him $32 million in the first two years of the deal. The contract makes Adams the highest-paid receiver in Green Bay and the annual average of $14.5 million ranks fourth in the NFL behind Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green. General manager Ted Thompson has a strong record of keeping the club’s best players in place and that’s what happened here. It sure would have been interesting had we gotten to March without a deal being done because the Packers have been hesitant to use the franchise tag and had things gone that far, maybe Adams would have made it to free agency. The timing is interesting because Adams held a ton of leverage entering a Week 17 game he will not suit up for because of a concussion. But there’s a real draw to being able to catch passes from Rodgers and that’s certainly helped Thompson build the roster over the years. Take slightly more money to play elsewhere with a quarterback that isn’t nearly as good or stay with the club that drafted and developed you with one of the very best passers in the game?
The Bears, as everyone knows, must completely overhaul the depth chart at wide receiver. That starts with identifying what they have on their own roster right now – complementary players, at best – and then forecasting ahead to the draft where top-end talent looks to be thin right now based on multiple scouts I have chatted with over the last few months. More on some draft chatter a little later on.
What will be available in free agency with Adams and Alshon Jeffery (contract extended by the Eagles) taken off the market?
Jarvis Landry of the Dolphins, Sammy Watkins of the Rams and Paul Richardson of the Seahawks project as the top three according to one pro personnel director I chatted with on Saturday during a nifty weather delay at O’Hare. And there is a big drop off after that.
“Landry and Sammy are the top guys and I like Sammy more because he’s a bigger guy whereas Landry is really a slot receiver,” the pro director said. “Now, he’s a damn good one and he will change the culture of your team because he is one damn tough son of a gun. You need guys like that. I think the Rams probably wind up re-signing Sammy. My hunch is he wants to stay with Los Angeles and if that happens you’re left with Landry and Paul Richardson and I would go with Landry between those two all day long.
“Richardson kind of reminds me of Ted Ginn earlier in his career. He’s still trying to come into his own a little bit and he’s been affected by injuries. Look at their frames, they’re built similarly. (Richardson) has been dinged up. Ginn has put on some weight now since he came in, filled out a little as far as his legs and his chest, and he’s never really been a full-time starter. More of a complementary guy for you.
“There’s just not going to be a lot out there, you know. We’ll have to see who gets cut, who the cap casualties are. But right now off the top of my head, I can’t see a difference-maker getting released. Even Landry, at the end of the day, we’re talking about a slot receiver.
“Maybe Randall Cobb has to re-do his contract in Green Bay or, who knows, maybe he winds up being a cap cut but we’re talking about another slot receiver and one that’s not as good as Landry. I think Landry becomes a free agent but like I said, I think Watkins is re-signed by the Rams. They have the money and the cap space to do it. They’ve got to sign Aaron Donald but they’ll probably let Trumaine Johnson walk because they’ve already tagged him twice. He’s OK but you just can’t trust him to show up every game.
“Watkins doesn’t have the numbers you’re asking me about (39 receptions, 593 yards, eight touchdowns) because they’re a balanced team. He doesn’t need to be Superman. They’ve got the MVP of the league, or the guy that probably should be MVP running the ball there. (Robert) Woods has had a good year and (Cooper) Kupp has had a good year. That’s because teams are playing Watkins deep and it’s opened up the stuff underneath and the run game. You have to pay for that, OK? He’s getting the double and the high safety to his side. What does that is open up Kupp for an option route and a bend route and Woods for a dig. The run game flourishes because if you play eight in the box, they’re gonna hit you deep. He means a lot to them and that’s why I think they pay him.”
Landry has 391 receptions since entering the league in 2014 and has 103 catches for 895 yards this season. Richardson has posted career-highs this season with 44 catches for 703 yards and six touchdowns. He combined for only 51 receptions in his first three seasons. After these guys, one potential target is Allen Robinson, but he is headed to free agency after suffering a torn ACL in his left knee on his first reception of this season in Week 1. I think Robinson could still be a pretty attractive free agent and you can’t rule out the Bears making a run at hime. Some think Robinson, who had 80 catches for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2015, will re-sign in Jacksonville. One thing to keep in mind with Robinson: He’s only 24. Then there’s Terrelle Pryor, who took a $6 million, one-year deal to gamble on himself with the Redskins and didn’t produce much. He suffered an ankle injury in Week 2 and wound up on injured reserve in November after having arthroscopic surgery. Pryor was plagued by dropped passes and wound up with 20 catches for 240 yards and one touchdown.
One more thing to remember when it comes to wide receivers and free agency: The Bears couldn’t get any takers last year because their quarterback situation was a total unknown. They’ve got the quarterback situation resolved now and I think Trubisky and a wide open depth chart allows them to attract some guys along with those big checks that come along with free agency.
5. Kudos to Rich Campbell for nailing the Bears’ draft situation. They’re picking eighth in the first round, up one slot than they projected to be thanks to the 49ers closing out the season on fire with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. San Francisco got to 6-10 leaving the Bears in a three-way tie that they lost. Still, they’re picking ahead of the 49ers now and were likely to be behind them and selecting ninth if San Francisco had lost on Sunday.
This is a good spot to be in the draft with the seven picks ahead of the Bears as follows: 1. Browns, 2. Giants, 3. Colts, 4. Browns (from Texans), 5. Broncos, 6. Jets, 7. Buccaneers. The Browns, Giants, Broncos and Jets all have quarterback issues. Maybe one of those teams solves the issue in free agency. You could have two and maybe even three quarterbacks drafted in the first seven picks. I kind of doubt there will be three go that high right now and maybe there’s only one, you never know, but from the Bears’ perspective, the more the merrier. That pushes elite talent at the other positions to the Bears.
Provided the Bears hold at No. 8, it will be the first time they have selected from that spot since 2001 when they chose Michigan wide receiver David Terrell. The other No. 8 picks in Bears’ history:
1976 Dennis Lick, OT, Wisconsin
1973 Wally Chambers, DT, Eastern Kentucky
1952 Jim Dooley, HB, Miami
1944 Roy Evans, HB, Kansas
1937 Les McDonald, end, Nebraska
It’s interesting to see what the No. 8 pick has produced in the last decade. There are some pretty good players on this list and some pretty big misses.
2017 Panthers, Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
2016 Titans, Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
2015 Falcons, Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
2014 Browns, Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
2013 Rams, Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
2012 Dolphins, Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
2011 Titans, Jake Locker, QB, Washington
2010 Raiders, Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
2009 Jaguars, Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
2008 Jaguars, Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
Conklin (OT), Gilbert (CB), Austin (WR) and McClain (LB) were the first players at their position group selected in their respective classes. McCaffrey (RB), Beasley (edge rusher), Locker (QB) and Harvey (DE) were the second players at their position group selected in their respective classes. Finally, Tannehill (QB) and Monroe (OT) were the third players at their position group selected in their respective classes. I include that you offer a little recent data on what you can expect from that draft position.
6. A little more draft chatter as we’re in 2018 and it’s definitely time to focus ahead – and not back – with the Bears. I’ve talked to a number of college scouts throughout the season and none of them have been super excited about the crop of wide receivers that will be available. But a college scouting director that I caught up with Saturday evening painted a more optimistic picture than some of the others I’ve talked too so far. He feels pretty good about Alabama’s Calvin Ridley and SMU’s Courtland Sutton. Some I’ve talked to have knocked Ridley’s hands and a couple scouts I have spoken to are lukewarm on Sutton and like him as a No. 2 receiver.
The scouting director I caught up with called Ridley and Sutton both studs but reiterated what others have said when he called it a thin class in terms of top-end talent.
“That’s not always a bad thing,” he said. “You can still get good value mid- to late. You don’t always have to blow it up up top. You can always get something done in the third our fourth (rounds).”
Common sense dictates the Bears will be in the market for pass rushers and cornerbacks in the draft as well. As usual, you’re going to have to get good cover corners with size in the top two rounds or they will all be gone. The scouting director was pretty high on the crop of edge rushers for the draft and provided a name to keep an eye on for the Senior Bowl – Texas-San Antonio’s Marcus Davenport. The school lists Davenport at 6-foot-6, 250 pounds, and he had 7 ½ sacks and 15 ½ tackles for loss last season.
“If this kid isn’t the talk of the Senior Bowl I’ll be shocked,” the director said. “You are going to start hearing a lot about this kid.”
Plenty more to come but it was interesting to encounter a guy who likes Ridley and Sutton both and had a small-school name to provide for the Senior Bowl later this month.
7. There is some level of uncertainty for the Bears regarding the future for left guard Josh Sitton. The 31-year-old just finished his 10th season and missed the final three games with a right ankle injury. Sitton was injured against the Lions when center Hroniss Grasu fell back over Sitton’s right leg. His contract runs through the 2018 season and the Bears have an option in Sitton’s contract that must be executed between Feb. 9 — five days after Super Bowl LII — and March 9 — five days before the start of the new league year. The option is for $8 million — $7.4 million in base salary with a $500,000 roster bonus and a $100,000 workout bonus.
I asked Sitton where he’s at right now and he went from “day-to-day” to sounding relatively confident he would be back next season. The new coaching staff will certainly have a say in personnel issues. Hard to handicap this one right now. Sitton might not be the player he once was in Green Bay, but he was a Pro Bowl replacement last season and he remains elite in pass blocking because he’s technically sound and has tremendous football IQ. He can anticipate what is coming and where it is coming from. Losing Sitton would only add to the list of parts the Bears need to add this offseason. As we’ve seen, they’re too short right now on the offensive line and were really stung when they lost interior swing man Eric Kush to a torn hamstring in training camp.
“I’ve taken things day-by-day for the past couple years,” Sitton said. “I feel really good. I would say that if I had to answer your question, I definitely see myself playing football for the next couple years. Definitely see myself playing. I don’t feel like this is my last season.”
It’s too early to tell when fellow guard Kyle Long will be mended. He underwent neck surgery in December and hinted on social media that it was the first of three surgeries he would be having. One would figure he’s got shoulder surgery and perhaps hand surgery ahead based on injuries that plagued him this season. Being without Sitton could leave the Bears exposed and they will have to make a decision sooner rather than later. The new staff will likely have a say in the process and the Bears have to make a decision before free agency.
8. There is a lot of heavy lifting to do when it comes to the roster and a lot of big moves to be made, but keep in mind all three specialists are coming out of contract and headed to free agency. Bigger dominoes will fall this offseason, but the Bears need to determine what they are doing at kicker, punter and long snapper. Mike Nugent banged through a 55-yard field goal in the loss but he’s 35 (turns 36 in March) and I’d expect the team would have younger options in mind first. The sense I get is the Bears would like to re-sign Cairo Santos, who they added in late November only to lose him to a groin muscle injury. Santos has undergone sports hernia surgery and is on the mend. He’ll get a job somewhere and it could be with the Bears.
Punter Pat O’Donnell had a career-best gross average of 47.0 yards this season and tied his career-best with a net of 39.7. He dropped 27 punts inside the 20-yard line and had only six touchbacks. With just slightly better coverage, he easily would have had a net over 40.
Now that’s he’s headed to free agency, I asked him if a dome or weather would factor in his thinking.
“It’s different in that regard,” O’Donnell said. “You could probably put up better numbers inside or in warmer weather but at the end of the day, I’m really happy here and whatever is going to happen is going to happen. I let the agent take care of that.”
We’ll see what happens with O’Donnell moving forward and keep an eye on Santos.
9. We’ve known the Bears’ opponents for the 2018 season for a while. Now we can note that the schedule will include four opponents (Vikings, Rams, Patriots, Bills) that will be coming off a playoff appearance and that means five games against 2017 playoff teams (they will play the Vikings twice). They faced four opponents in 2017 that participated in the 2016 playoffs – Atlanta, Detroit, Green Bay and Pittsburgh. It’s also interesting to note that right now it looks like there will be potentially three opponents for next season that have new head coaches. The Giants already have an opening and the Lions and Cardinals could both be headed in that direction.
2018 home games: Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle, New England, New York Jets, Tampa Bay
2018 road games: Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota, Arizona, San Francisco, Buffalo, Miami, New York Giants
10. By my count the Bears had a total of 27 players spend time on the practice squad this season. The figure was 30 in each of the first two seasons under Pace, so the turnover happened at a similar rate. Ten of those 27 players spent time on the 53-man roster. Last season, the Bears had 14 of the 30 practice squad players reach the 53-man roster and in 2015 it was 13 of 30. The glass half-full way of looking at that is the Bears have signed some players they feel have picked up what they were doing in practice and been able to contribute. The glass half-empty way of looking at it is the Bears have had far too many injuries that have necessitated a slew of roster moves that has, in the process, eroded roster depth. Seven of the 27 practice squad players that came through were wide receivers with Tanner Gentry and Tre McBride the only two to reach the 53.
10a. Cornerback Kyle Fuller is – far and away – the biggest free agent the Bears have to handle this offseason. Something worth keeping in mind about Fuller. He and Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson, also expected to be one of the top free agent cornerbacks, are both represented by Lagardere Unlimited, the agency headed up by veteran agent Joel Segal. Add New England’s Malcolm Butler to the list of projected top available cornerbacks. I’ve got to think some way, somehow the Bears wind up with one of those three … or try like heck to.
10b. The Vikings signed long snapper Jeff Overbaugh on Tuesday after he flew in on Monday (Christmas Day) for a workout on Tuesday. Their long snapper Kevin McDermott was placed on injured reserve with a dislocated left shoulder and Overbaugh won a tryout. The reason I mention this is because it looked like Overbaugh was going to be the long snapper for the Bears late in preseason after Patrick Scales suffered a torn ACL and before Andrew DePaolo was brought in. Overbaugh trained with former Bears long snapper Pat Mannelly in the past and credited that with keeping him on the path to landing a job. Get this: Overbaugh had 11 tryouts this season before signing with the Vikings. That means more than one-third of the NFL brought him in for a look. Now, he’s got a chance to collect playoff checks with the Vikings.
10c. The Bears opened training camp saying tight end was one of the strengths on the roster. The new coaching staff has to find a way to get more out of this group. A lot of folks have chimed in about second-round pick Shaheen and he needs to develop more but 15 catches for 180 yards and one touchdown from Dion Sims, who was signed for $10 million guaranteed in an $18 million, three-year deal? That doesn’t quite get it done.
10d. The Bears finished the season with eight interceptions. That ties the franchise-low that was set in 2015 and then repeated again last season. Twenty-four interceptions in three seasons? Put those defensive backs to work on the Jugs machine. On the flip side, they had 42 sacks, the most since the 2001 team totaled 48.
10e. Lack of attention to detail? Yes, that was the 2017 Bears. They were called for 115 penalties, the most by a Bears team since they had 124 in 2004. Opponents were called for 118 penalties this season.
10f. Most underappreciated move of the year? That has to be signing left tackle Charles Leno to a $38 million, four-year extension that included $21.5 million guaranteed. The market for offensive tackles in free agency is a hot mess and Leno would have commanded $11 million per year, maybe more had he played out the deal and headed to free agency. He chose security and that’s a wise move, especially for a former seventh-round draft pick that didn’t have a big signing bonus to fall back on if something went awry.
10g. Hope everyone had a great New Year’s celebration. Thanks for following along with 10 thoughts this season.
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