Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2017 11:58:02 GMT -6
Bears Q&A: Can Mitch Trubisky attract an offensive-minded coach? Where is Ryan Pace?
Brad BiggsBrad BiggsContact ReporterChicago Tribune
Link: www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-bears-mitch-trubisky-ryan-pace-mailbag-20171220-story.html
The Tribune's Brad Biggs answers your Bears questions weekly.
Has Mitch Trubisky shown enough to attract the best offensive minds to the Bears’ coaching job? — @cubbbearjoe
Trubisky will certainly be an intriguing building block for potential head coaches to consider. It’s all relative to what other jobs are available. For instance, if Jim Caldwell is fired by the Lions, and if they fail to reach the playoffs, Matthew Stafford would be more attractive if you’re simply evaluating the quarterback. The Lions have better wide receivers in place too. But the coaches with the most interest in the Bears, should the job come available, will surely be all-in with Trubisky. I spoke with one coach who could be a candidate for top jobs in January this week and he told me he really likes what he’s seen from Trubisky this season. Everyone is going to have a different opinion but he’s done a nice job of taking care of the football and with better skill position players around him and an offseason to digest what he went through as a rookie, he can be a real positive for the franchise moving forward.
Will the Bears win more than five total division games in the span of the next five seasons? — @originaljohnny
Yes. This seems like a layup to me. Let’s put it this way, if they don’t win five NFC North games in the next five seasons, there will be a lot more heads that roll out of Halas Hall between now and then. Heck, if they don’t win more than 10 division games over the next five seasons, heads will roll.
John Fox most likely won’t be the head coach next year. But if the Bears lose to the lowly Browns, would that mean Ryan Pace is out the door as well? — @chadwmark
It’s all speculation at this point because the man with the juice, chairman of the board George McCaskey, has not been heard from. My hunch at this point is that Pace will be safe moving into 2018 and that the Bears will believe that first-round draft pick Mitch Trubisky has shown enough for him to get an opportunity to build around the quarterback and turn things around. Of course, that’s what made re-booting things at the start of Year 3 so darn awkward for everyone involved. Fox was put in a position where he had to win now with a rookie quarterback after a draft that, more than anything else, was pointing to the future not the present. I’ll repeat what I have said before: They should have cut bait with Jay Cutler much, much sooner than they did. They didn’t and here we are with two games remaining in Year 3 for the current regime and another disappointing season about to come to an end.
Kevin White's year on the PUP list meant that he didn't get an accrued season towards free agency in 2015. If the Bears decline his fifth-year option, would he become a restricted free agent in 2019? — @llwynllwyfenni
This is not correct. White is not delayed headed to free agency. The Bears will have to announce a decision on the fifth-year option in White’s contract this coming spring and it would be a stunning upset if they do not decline that option. That means White will likely be an unrestricted free agent at the conclusion of the 2018 season. That’s one of the major problems for the Bears. Since the institution of the fifth-year option in rookie contracts for firsyt-round draft picks with the Class of 2011, the Bears have picked up the option of only one player — right guard Kyle Long.
2011: Gabe Carimi, was traded before Bears had to make a call on fifth-year option
2012: Shea McClellin, declined fifth-year option
2013: Long, picked up fifth-year option
2014: Kyle Fuller, declined fifth-year option
2015: Kevin White, decision due in the spring
When you don’t hit on first-round draft picks and you don’t sign them to second contracts, you’re failing with some of the greatest resources available to teams.
Do the owners and the GM attend all the games or just a few of them? — @emgarcia1266
Yes. The McCaskeys are at every game – home and away – and the general manager attends every game. Team president Ted Phillips is at every game or nearly every game – home and away – as well.
Going into the year, it seemed to be a lock that this would be Kyle Fuller's last year in Chicago. He seems to have really elevated his play and has become a more than capable starter. What are the odds he is offered (and accepts) an extension? — @bburch715
I would say it is possible the Bears will consider attempting to re-sign Fuller but you’ve got to answer some major questions before you get close to that point. Who is the coach? Who is the defensive coordinator? Who is the defensive backs coach? How do they evaluate Fuller? None of us can answer any of those very important questions at this point. My guess is Fuller will look to sign elsewhere but a major shift inside the building and a lot of money can go a long way toward patching things up. That being said, there was a real disconnect between the player and the organization in 2016 and I don’t know if they can cross this bridge together. Fuller has been decent this year but let’s not overstate his performance in 2017. If he’s your No. 1 cornerback, I think you’re looking for an upgrade at that position.
Where’s Ryan Pace? Would love to see him come out and take charge like the Cardinals GM did. — @waynesyrek
Cardinals general manager Steve Keim does a regular radio hit with a show in Phoenix and earlier this week he said, “I’m disappointed, and the fact that we were eliminated from playoff contention is a disappointment. I apologize to our fans and everybody in our organization. Moving forward, we have a lot of work to do. It’s going to be a busy offseason. We’ll continue to evaluate this team the last two games and I promise the product on the field in 2018 will finish much stronger.”
Pace doesn’t do regular media appearances during the season, or the offseason for that matter. I’m sure when he meets with media at the end of this season, he will express similar frustration with the way this season has panned out for the Bears. But let me ask you this? Would hearing Pace use the exact words Keim used last week or the week before really make you feel any differently about the current situation? I can promise you he’s disappointed with the team’s record right now and the record the team has had since he took over as GM in 2015. He knew a rebuild was necessary and committed for the long haul. At this point, how much weight can we put in words? It’s going to take results – not words and not just action – for the Bears to prove they’ve turned things around. Would hearing the GM vent like fans are venting help? I suppose folks would like to hear the man express some of the same emotions they are feeling but ultimately talk is just that. Let’s see results.
I’m curious as to who you think the Bears will cut this offseason? Personally, I see them releasing Mike Glennon, Bobby Massie and Markus Wheaton for sure with their big cap numbers but there are a couple guys on the bubble I was wondering what your take was on them. Like Pernell McPhee? To me he has been a huge bust with his inability to stay healthy and lack of production. He counts almost $8 million against the cap. Then there’s Jerrell Freeman, to me he’s not that expensive and a good player but the obvious knock is the suspension. I think they should hold onto him unless they draft an inside linebacker high or sign a notable free agent. In my opinion, Nick Kwiatkoski hasn’t been anything special and doesn’t seem like the long-term answer at ILB for the Bears. — Jonathan L., Parts Unknown
For starters, I am going to disagree with you about Massie. Is he guaranteed a spot on the 2018 roster? Maybe not, but Massie has been much more consistent this season than he was a year ago. Massie is a relative bargain for 2018 as well especially when you consider how the salaries for right tackles have really shot up in the last couple years with some now commanding in excess of $9 million per season. Massie has one year remaining on his contract and he is due a base salary of $4.25 million with a $1 million roster bonus due on March 16, the third day of the new league year. He also has a $250,000 roster bonus ($15,625 per game he is on the 46-man gameday roster) and a $100,000 workout bonus. Add it all up and we’re talking about $5.6 million for an experienced right tackle. Keeping Massie would allow the Bears to focus resources on some other areas which are much greater needs. I agree that Glennon is a strong candidate to be released after the season and I would be surprised if the Bears do not cut ties with McPhee and Freeman. I disagree that Freeman is a good player and coming off two suspensions now, there’s no way the Bears will want to move forward with him. I’ve heard whispers that Freeman could retire. Wheaton could certainly be a candidate to be released and possibly safety Quintin Demps as well. A lot of it is going to depend on what happens with the coaching staff. I’m not sure what will happen with outside linebacker Willie Young. He’s signed for one more season at the modest price of $4.5 million for next season. Young might actually have more value for the Bears if they were to transition back to a 4-3 defense. There’s a lot to consider at the end of the season and the Bears will be flush with salary cap space. With a couple of these moves we’ve outlined, they will have even more cap space.
If Vic Fangio is gone after this season, who are some of the top candidates for defensive coordinator? — @gumm006
That all depends if they have a new head coach and what the new head coach wants to do, right? Then, you’ve got to consider what possible options are available, meaning not under contract to another team. Keep in mind that coaches under contract to other teams cannot force their way out of a deal even if it means promotion from being a position coach to a coordinator. Let’s wait and see what shakes out. My expectation right now is Fangio will likely head elsewhere but you never know.
How does the Bears’ budget for assistant coaches compare to the rest of the league? They lack experience and competence in a lot of spots and I'm wondering if that's because ownership puts all their money in the head coach and not the staff? — @ricomuscatel
No one publishes the salaries for head coaches, let alone assistant coaches. I can tell you that has been a concern in the recent past for the team but I’d also point out that defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is believed to be one of the highest-paid in his position in the league. I’d also point out that when the Bears had Rod Marinelli as defensive coordinator and Mike Martz as offensive coordinator with Mike Tice as the offensive line coach, that was probably one of the better compensated assistant staffs in the league.
Is Lamarr Houston a viable source of pass rush for 2018, or is he just a player that is shining in garbage time? – Doug E., Hawthorn Woods, Ill.
I would be surprised if the Bears consider Houston, who turns 31 in June, for their plans in 2018. He’s giving them a solid effort here in the closing weeks and was a smart addition when attrition created gaping holes because he knows the scheme. But they need some younger blood when it comes to edge rushers.
What really are the odds of the Bears hiring a college head coach such as David Shaw or Jim Harbaugh? — @sportsnewsacess
I don’t think the odds are high that the Bears will hire a head coach from the college ranks and truthfully you don’t see a lot of those moves from year to year. A lot of them have failed too. According to USA Today, Shaw was paid $5.68 million at Stanford this season, this seventh-highest figure in the NCAA. Jim Harbaugh’s salary according to USA Today is $7.004 million. That means the Bears would have to throw a ton of money at them to even get them to consider budging from their current positions. I imagine if the Bears are in the market for a new coach, and most expect that to happen, they will consider ALL possibilities, including the college ranks. But my guess is it’s more likely a new coach would come from the NFL.
Where will next year's backup center come from — NFL draft or free agency? — @conradsomm
There’s probably about 15 other positions, including backup spots, that need to be sorted out before we get to that. Let’s tackle some of the MAJOR questions facing the organization before we get to this. Hey, I believe the backup offensive linemen are important and the current situation the team is in (Kyle Long on injured reserve and Josh Sitton and Tom Compton both knocked out of last Saturday’s game) underscores that. I’d be surprised if Hroniss Grasu is the backup center next season but I didn’t think he would make the current roster until Eric Kush went down with a season-ending hamstring injury during training camp.
If the Bears lose, is John Fox gone? — @benjaminjenkin8
If you’re talking about losing this coming Sunday to the Browns, no. I do not believe the Bears will fire Fox next week if the team loses to the Browns. What’s the point in firing a coach after a Week 16 game? There really isn’t a head-start advantage to starting the search process a week early and the McCaskeys do not strike me as the kind of people that are going to go to Halas Hall on Christmas Day to call a coach in and relieve him of his position. Maybe I’m wrong, but that seems quite unlikely to me.
Seems to me, the worst quality of the Bears is their conservative, predictable offense. Is there a way any reporter can get to the bottom of who really is responsible for it, John Fox or Dowell Loggains? – Jordan Q., Parts Unknown
I’d say the worst quality of the offense is the lack of ability to score. They rank 28th in the league in scoring right now at 16.7 points per game. They lack explosive ability on offense and that leads to the lack of scoring. They lack playmakers and, yes, they can be predictable. Reality is everyone involved with the organization has their fingerprints on the lack of production.
Isn’t Jordan Howard Pro Bowl caliber? — @warbingerjc
Howard ranks second in the NFC with 1,069 yards rushing but the three backs selected to the conference’s Pro Bowl squad were the Rams’ Todd Gurley (1st, 1,187 yards), the Saints’ Mark Ingram (3rd, 1,045 yards) and the Saints’ Alvin Kamara (10th, 652 yards). It’s not just about rushing totals. Let’s look at the rushing and receiving totals, then total offense.
Rushing:
Gurley 1,187 yards, 4.6 yards per carry, 13 rushing touchdowns
Ingram 1,045 yards, 5.1 yards per carry, 11 rushing touchdowns
Kamara 652 yards, 6.6 yards per carry, 7 rushing touchdowns
Howard 1,069 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, 7 rushing touchdowns
Receiving:
Gurley 54 receptions, 630 yards, 11.7 yards per reception, 4 receiving touchdowns
Ingram 51 receptions, 375 yards, 7.4 yards per reception, 0 receiving touchdowns
Kamara 68 receptions, 684 yards, 10.1 yards per reception, 5 receiving touchdowns
Howard 22 receptions, 120 yards, 5.5 yards per reception, 0 receiving touchdowns
Total offense:
Gurley 1,817 yards total offense, 17 touchdowns
Ingram 1,420 yards total offense, 11 touchdowns
Kamara 1,456 yards total offense, 12 touchdowns
Howard 1,189 yards total offense, 7 touchdowns
These numbers point to Gurley, Ingram and Kamara being more worthy than Howard. That being said, I would say there is a good chance one or more of those running backs winds up bowing out of the Pro Bowl and that could open up a spot for Howard. We’ll have to see how it shakes out. The biggest difference is that the other three backs are much more productive as a receiver out of the backfield than Howard.
We all know free agents are only temporary stopgaps. Why are people so angry at Ryan Pace’s pro personnel decisions as if a GM who picks up free agents on team friendly deals is bad? He said from the beginning, “we build through the draft.” Isn’t he delivering on his promise that way? — @justabearfan
Yes and no. You can make a case the Bears haven’t built much to this point when you consider they won three games last season and are stuck on four wins this season with two weeks to go. Defensive end Akiem Hicks has been a terrific addition via free agency and inside linebacker Danny Trevathan has been a key player in the middle of the defense. Right tackle Bobby Massie has been solid this season and with the exception of some recent penalties by cornerback Prince Amukamara, I think he’s helped improve the defense. The issue is there has been a lot of money invested in some players that have provided very little in return. Mike Glennon, Markus Wheaton, Eddie Royal, Marcus Cooper, Quintin Demps, Antrel Rolle, Alan Ball have pulled in a lot of money and offered little in return. You can make a strong case that Pernell McPhee was a poor signing for the Bears and I don’t know that they’re getting appropriate value from tight end Dion Sims, who was signed for $10 million guaranteed. A good GM has to strike a balance between the draft and free agency and find hits in all areas. No one is going to be perfect and you make the valid and important point that the free-agent misses Pace has made have not affected the club long-term. That being said, I think the Bears need to evaluate a little of their approach in free agency with a goal of achieving better returns on their investments. The coaches play a part in this too.
What is the main reason the Bears can hardly win any games this year? — @blizzdog
You must be new around here.
How would you rank Chicago’s offseason free-agent signings based on their performances thus far this season? — @jackjova
I am assuming you are asking me to rank the free-agent additions that have been made to the roster for this season. I’ll rank the March signings according to the production and the contract in order of best signing to worst signing: Kendall Wright, Prince Amukamara, Dion Sims, Benny Cunningham, Tom Compton, Quintin Demps, Mark Sanchez, John Jenkins, Markus Wheaton, Marcus Cooper, Mike Glennon. The Bears have to hope a similar list at this time next year is more top heavy with significant contributors.
I do not find it easy to determine how much of the Bears' offensive woes can be directly pinned on Dowell Loggains, given their myriad problems. Nonetheless, it seems to me that he deserves a good bit of blame, and I hope he and John Fox are gone next year. Here's my thought experiment: Let's say that Adam Gase was never hired as the head coach of Miami and was still running his offense here in Chicago as the offensive coordinator. All else staying the same, how much better do you think the Bears' offense would look? Do you think the Bears could actually be an eight-win team, even with all the injuries and inexperience? — Peter M., Chicago
I appreciate the well thought out question but this goes pretty deep into a hypothetical that isn’t really reasonable. I say that because if the Dolphins did not hire Gase after the 2015 season, I think it’s pretty fair to say another team would have scooped him up. Would Gase be considered a better option than Loggains? Sure. But the Bears didn’t have a great record with Gase when he was in town and ultimately the NFL is a players’ league. The teams with the best players generally win on Sundays. Can coaching make a difference? No doubt about it. But elite quarterback play is the biggest factor in the outcome of games and that is why the Bears are hoping like heck Mitch Trubisky develops into the kind of star they project. I find it impossible to believe the Bears could have been an eight-win team last season with all of the injuries and they’re so short on firepower this season, I don’t know if the reincarnation of Don Coryell on offense could coax eight wins out of this bunch this year.
What’s the Bears biggest need in the draft and what position do u predict they draft first? — @micah01009149
Their biggest need is wide receiver. Their next biggest needs are cornerback and edge rusher. It’s impossible to say which position will be drafted first. Some believe there might be only one wide receiver worthy of a first-round pick in the draft this coming spring. The Bears need to get an impact player no matter which direction they go. Here’s some good news: We could see two or three quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 and the more quarterbacks that are drafted, the more premium talent at other positions will be there for the Bears to consider.
If the Bears want a top quality coaching candidate don’t they need to either sign Ryan Pace to an extension or fire him? — @occamsdragon
Pace’s status with a contract that runs through the 2019 season will certainly be a factor for head-coaching candidates to consider. As I said above, it’s impossible to say what is going to happen with the GM right now but I tend to think he is safe moving ahead to 2018. Has he done enough at this point to justify signing him beyond 2019? I think even Pace would admit the record of the team doesn’t justify an extension. We’ll see what pans out.
Could the Bears be severely holding back Mitch Trubisky’s development? I took a look at Carson Wentz's rookie season and he had three two-interception games and one three-interception game with 607 passing attempts for the year. For sure, every QB is different but it seems the Bears are preventing him from making mistakes when he can learn from them and one thing about Trubisky is he has picked things up as the season has progressed. — Elijah, Chicago
“Severely” holding back his development? I think that’s probably a little over the top. I agree, it would have been nice to see Trubisky have the chance to cut things loose a little bit more this season but I don’t know that his rookie season is going to be a negative for him moving forward. He’s had a great attitude about everything that he has encountered and barring something unexpected, he will have 12 starts under his belt at the end of the season. Will he get 607 passing attempts? No. He’s only got 271 attempts to this point so he probably finishes with somewhere around 325 or so. That’s a lot of action for a rookie quarterback. The biggest challenge Trubisky will face in the offseason is learning a new offense after what is an expected coaching change.
Water cooler opinion has the Bears taking a WR like Calvin Ridley or Courtland Sutton with their 1st pick in the 2018 draft, but I think there's real danger in putting too many eggs in the Mitch Trubisky basket. You don't have to do much digging to see that impact receivers can be found throughout draft weekend. I think the wobbly state of the Bears’ 3rd down defense indicates a more pressing need for a dynamic pass rusher opposite Leonard Floyd. I've lost count of all the times Bears' opponents have flipped the field and, at best, put the Bears' offense in unfavorable field position to begin drives. Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford aren't going anywhere, which is why nabbing a guy like NC State's Bradley Chubb or LSU's Arden Key makes sense to me in the first round. Your thoughts? — David D., Rogers Park
I’m always an advocate when it comes to the opportunity to add an impact pass rusher. No question the Bears need to add some more juice to their pass rush and they need more from Floyd in 2018 when he starts his third season. I don’t think it’s a longshot at all that the Bears could go after a pass rusher with their first-round pick. There is also a bust factor that comes with first-round wide receivers. Look at what the top wide receivers from this past draft have done. Not a whole lot. I could easily see the Bears targeting a pass rusher, a cornerback or perhaps even an offensive lineman in the first round.
How many place kickers are the Bears currently paying? Could it be four? Connor Barth, Roberto Aguayo, Cairo Santos and Mike Nugent. If one of the reasons Robbie Gould was cut was money, how can this be saving any money? Ryan Pace and John Fox completely mismanaged this one. — Dennis D., Parts Unknown
The Bears are currently paying two kickers – Santos and Nugent – and it is my belief both are making the minimum salary for their experience. Barth is no longer being paid. His deal included $155,000 guaranteed and that ran out well before he was released. The Bears were also on the hook for the vast majority of the $428,000 guarantee they inherited with Aguayo when they made the mistake of claiming him off waivers from the Buccaneers. Aguayo spent time on Carolina’s practice squad and it’s my belief the minimal money he received from the Panthers reduced by a small amount what the Bears were required to pay him. I don’t think the Gould move was really based on money and, yes, it’s been well established that the Bears made an error at kicker.
bmbiggs@chicagotribune.com
Twitter @bradbiggs
Brad BiggsBrad BiggsContact ReporterChicago Tribune
Link: www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-bears-mitch-trubisky-ryan-pace-mailbag-20171220-story.html
The Tribune's Brad Biggs answers your Bears questions weekly.
Has Mitch Trubisky shown enough to attract the best offensive minds to the Bears’ coaching job? — @cubbbearjoe
Trubisky will certainly be an intriguing building block for potential head coaches to consider. It’s all relative to what other jobs are available. For instance, if Jim Caldwell is fired by the Lions, and if they fail to reach the playoffs, Matthew Stafford would be more attractive if you’re simply evaluating the quarterback. The Lions have better wide receivers in place too. But the coaches with the most interest in the Bears, should the job come available, will surely be all-in with Trubisky. I spoke with one coach who could be a candidate for top jobs in January this week and he told me he really likes what he’s seen from Trubisky this season. Everyone is going to have a different opinion but he’s done a nice job of taking care of the football and with better skill position players around him and an offseason to digest what he went through as a rookie, he can be a real positive for the franchise moving forward.
Will the Bears win more than five total division games in the span of the next five seasons? — @originaljohnny
Yes. This seems like a layup to me. Let’s put it this way, if they don’t win five NFC North games in the next five seasons, there will be a lot more heads that roll out of Halas Hall between now and then. Heck, if they don’t win more than 10 division games over the next five seasons, heads will roll.
John Fox most likely won’t be the head coach next year. But if the Bears lose to the lowly Browns, would that mean Ryan Pace is out the door as well? — @chadwmark
It’s all speculation at this point because the man with the juice, chairman of the board George McCaskey, has not been heard from. My hunch at this point is that Pace will be safe moving into 2018 and that the Bears will believe that first-round draft pick Mitch Trubisky has shown enough for him to get an opportunity to build around the quarterback and turn things around. Of course, that’s what made re-booting things at the start of Year 3 so darn awkward for everyone involved. Fox was put in a position where he had to win now with a rookie quarterback after a draft that, more than anything else, was pointing to the future not the present. I’ll repeat what I have said before: They should have cut bait with Jay Cutler much, much sooner than they did. They didn’t and here we are with two games remaining in Year 3 for the current regime and another disappointing season about to come to an end.
Kevin White's year on the PUP list meant that he didn't get an accrued season towards free agency in 2015. If the Bears decline his fifth-year option, would he become a restricted free agent in 2019? — @llwynllwyfenni
This is not correct. White is not delayed headed to free agency. The Bears will have to announce a decision on the fifth-year option in White’s contract this coming spring and it would be a stunning upset if they do not decline that option. That means White will likely be an unrestricted free agent at the conclusion of the 2018 season. That’s one of the major problems for the Bears. Since the institution of the fifth-year option in rookie contracts for firsyt-round draft picks with the Class of 2011, the Bears have picked up the option of only one player — right guard Kyle Long.
2011: Gabe Carimi, was traded before Bears had to make a call on fifth-year option
2012: Shea McClellin, declined fifth-year option
2013: Long, picked up fifth-year option
2014: Kyle Fuller, declined fifth-year option
2015: Kevin White, decision due in the spring
When you don’t hit on first-round draft picks and you don’t sign them to second contracts, you’re failing with some of the greatest resources available to teams.
Do the owners and the GM attend all the games or just a few of them? — @emgarcia1266
Yes. The McCaskeys are at every game – home and away – and the general manager attends every game. Team president Ted Phillips is at every game or nearly every game – home and away – as well.
Going into the year, it seemed to be a lock that this would be Kyle Fuller's last year in Chicago. He seems to have really elevated his play and has become a more than capable starter. What are the odds he is offered (and accepts) an extension? — @bburch715
I would say it is possible the Bears will consider attempting to re-sign Fuller but you’ve got to answer some major questions before you get close to that point. Who is the coach? Who is the defensive coordinator? Who is the defensive backs coach? How do they evaluate Fuller? None of us can answer any of those very important questions at this point. My guess is Fuller will look to sign elsewhere but a major shift inside the building and a lot of money can go a long way toward patching things up. That being said, there was a real disconnect between the player and the organization in 2016 and I don’t know if they can cross this bridge together. Fuller has been decent this year but let’s not overstate his performance in 2017. If he’s your No. 1 cornerback, I think you’re looking for an upgrade at that position.
Where’s Ryan Pace? Would love to see him come out and take charge like the Cardinals GM did. — @waynesyrek
Cardinals general manager Steve Keim does a regular radio hit with a show in Phoenix and earlier this week he said, “I’m disappointed, and the fact that we were eliminated from playoff contention is a disappointment. I apologize to our fans and everybody in our organization. Moving forward, we have a lot of work to do. It’s going to be a busy offseason. We’ll continue to evaluate this team the last two games and I promise the product on the field in 2018 will finish much stronger.”
Pace doesn’t do regular media appearances during the season, or the offseason for that matter. I’m sure when he meets with media at the end of this season, he will express similar frustration with the way this season has panned out for the Bears. But let me ask you this? Would hearing Pace use the exact words Keim used last week or the week before really make you feel any differently about the current situation? I can promise you he’s disappointed with the team’s record right now and the record the team has had since he took over as GM in 2015. He knew a rebuild was necessary and committed for the long haul. At this point, how much weight can we put in words? It’s going to take results – not words and not just action – for the Bears to prove they’ve turned things around. Would hearing the GM vent like fans are venting help? I suppose folks would like to hear the man express some of the same emotions they are feeling but ultimately talk is just that. Let’s see results.
I’m curious as to who you think the Bears will cut this offseason? Personally, I see them releasing Mike Glennon, Bobby Massie and Markus Wheaton for sure with their big cap numbers but there are a couple guys on the bubble I was wondering what your take was on them. Like Pernell McPhee? To me he has been a huge bust with his inability to stay healthy and lack of production. He counts almost $8 million against the cap. Then there’s Jerrell Freeman, to me he’s not that expensive and a good player but the obvious knock is the suspension. I think they should hold onto him unless they draft an inside linebacker high or sign a notable free agent. In my opinion, Nick Kwiatkoski hasn’t been anything special and doesn’t seem like the long-term answer at ILB for the Bears. — Jonathan L., Parts Unknown
For starters, I am going to disagree with you about Massie. Is he guaranteed a spot on the 2018 roster? Maybe not, but Massie has been much more consistent this season than he was a year ago. Massie is a relative bargain for 2018 as well especially when you consider how the salaries for right tackles have really shot up in the last couple years with some now commanding in excess of $9 million per season. Massie has one year remaining on his contract and he is due a base salary of $4.25 million with a $1 million roster bonus due on March 16, the third day of the new league year. He also has a $250,000 roster bonus ($15,625 per game he is on the 46-man gameday roster) and a $100,000 workout bonus. Add it all up and we’re talking about $5.6 million for an experienced right tackle. Keeping Massie would allow the Bears to focus resources on some other areas which are much greater needs. I agree that Glennon is a strong candidate to be released after the season and I would be surprised if the Bears do not cut ties with McPhee and Freeman. I disagree that Freeman is a good player and coming off two suspensions now, there’s no way the Bears will want to move forward with him. I’ve heard whispers that Freeman could retire. Wheaton could certainly be a candidate to be released and possibly safety Quintin Demps as well. A lot of it is going to depend on what happens with the coaching staff. I’m not sure what will happen with outside linebacker Willie Young. He’s signed for one more season at the modest price of $4.5 million for next season. Young might actually have more value for the Bears if they were to transition back to a 4-3 defense. There’s a lot to consider at the end of the season and the Bears will be flush with salary cap space. With a couple of these moves we’ve outlined, they will have even more cap space.
If Vic Fangio is gone after this season, who are some of the top candidates for defensive coordinator? — @gumm006
That all depends if they have a new head coach and what the new head coach wants to do, right? Then, you’ve got to consider what possible options are available, meaning not under contract to another team. Keep in mind that coaches under contract to other teams cannot force their way out of a deal even if it means promotion from being a position coach to a coordinator. Let’s wait and see what shakes out. My expectation right now is Fangio will likely head elsewhere but you never know.
How does the Bears’ budget for assistant coaches compare to the rest of the league? They lack experience and competence in a lot of spots and I'm wondering if that's because ownership puts all their money in the head coach and not the staff? — @ricomuscatel
No one publishes the salaries for head coaches, let alone assistant coaches. I can tell you that has been a concern in the recent past for the team but I’d also point out that defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is believed to be one of the highest-paid in his position in the league. I’d also point out that when the Bears had Rod Marinelli as defensive coordinator and Mike Martz as offensive coordinator with Mike Tice as the offensive line coach, that was probably one of the better compensated assistant staffs in the league.
Is Lamarr Houston a viable source of pass rush for 2018, or is he just a player that is shining in garbage time? – Doug E., Hawthorn Woods, Ill.
I would be surprised if the Bears consider Houston, who turns 31 in June, for their plans in 2018. He’s giving them a solid effort here in the closing weeks and was a smart addition when attrition created gaping holes because he knows the scheme. But they need some younger blood when it comes to edge rushers.
What really are the odds of the Bears hiring a college head coach such as David Shaw or Jim Harbaugh? — @sportsnewsacess
I don’t think the odds are high that the Bears will hire a head coach from the college ranks and truthfully you don’t see a lot of those moves from year to year. A lot of them have failed too. According to USA Today, Shaw was paid $5.68 million at Stanford this season, this seventh-highest figure in the NCAA. Jim Harbaugh’s salary according to USA Today is $7.004 million. That means the Bears would have to throw a ton of money at them to even get them to consider budging from their current positions. I imagine if the Bears are in the market for a new coach, and most expect that to happen, they will consider ALL possibilities, including the college ranks. But my guess is it’s more likely a new coach would come from the NFL.
Where will next year's backup center come from — NFL draft or free agency? — @conradsomm
There’s probably about 15 other positions, including backup spots, that need to be sorted out before we get to that. Let’s tackle some of the MAJOR questions facing the organization before we get to this. Hey, I believe the backup offensive linemen are important and the current situation the team is in (Kyle Long on injured reserve and Josh Sitton and Tom Compton both knocked out of last Saturday’s game) underscores that. I’d be surprised if Hroniss Grasu is the backup center next season but I didn’t think he would make the current roster until Eric Kush went down with a season-ending hamstring injury during training camp.
If the Bears lose, is John Fox gone? — @benjaminjenkin8
If you’re talking about losing this coming Sunday to the Browns, no. I do not believe the Bears will fire Fox next week if the team loses to the Browns. What’s the point in firing a coach after a Week 16 game? There really isn’t a head-start advantage to starting the search process a week early and the McCaskeys do not strike me as the kind of people that are going to go to Halas Hall on Christmas Day to call a coach in and relieve him of his position. Maybe I’m wrong, but that seems quite unlikely to me.
Seems to me, the worst quality of the Bears is their conservative, predictable offense. Is there a way any reporter can get to the bottom of who really is responsible for it, John Fox or Dowell Loggains? – Jordan Q., Parts Unknown
I’d say the worst quality of the offense is the lack of ability to score. They rank 28th in the league in scoring right now at 16.7 points per game. They lack explosive ability on offense and that leads to the lack of scoring. They lack playmakers and, yes, they can be predictable. Reality is everyone involved with the organization has their fingerprints on the lack of production.
Isn’t Jordan Howard Pro Bowl caliber? — @warbingerjc
Howard ranks second in the NFC with 1,069 yards rushing but the three backs selected to the conference’s Pro Bowl squad were the Rams’ Todd Gurley (1st, 1,187 yards), the Saints’ Mark Ingram (3rd, 1,045 yards) and the Saints’ Alvin Kamara (10th, 652 yards). It’s not just about rushing totals. Let’s look at the rushing and receiving totals, then total offense.
Rushing:
Gurley 1,187 yards, 4.6 yards per carry, 13 rushing touchdowns
Ingram 1,045 yards, 5.1 yards per carry, 11 rushing touchdowns
Kamara 652 yards, 6.6 yards per carry, 7 rushing touchdowns
Howard 1,069 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, 7 rushing touchdowns
Receiving:
Gurley 54 receptions, 630 yards, 11.7 yards per reception, 4 receiving touchdowns
Ingram 51 receptions, 375 yards, 7.4 yards per reception, 0 receiving touchdowns
Kamara 68 receptions, 684 yards, 10.1 yards per reception, 5 receiving touchdowns
Howard 22 receptions, 120 yards, 5.5 yards per reception, 0 receiving touchdowns
Total offense:
Gurley 1,817 yards total offense, 17 touchdowns
Ingram 1,420 yards total offense, 11 touchdowns
Kamara 1,456 yards total offense, 12 touchdowns
Howard 1,189 yards total offense, 7 touchdowns
These numbers point to Gurley, Ingram and Kamara being more worthy than Howard. That being said, I would say there is a good chance one or more of those running backs winds up bowing out of the Pro Bowl and that could open up a spot for Howard. We’ll have to see how it shakes out. The biggest difference is that the other three backs are much more productive as a receiver out of the backfield than Howard.
We all know free agents are only temporary stopgaps. Why are people so angry at Ryan Pace’s pro personnel decisions as if a GM who picks up free agents on team friendly deals is bad? He said from the beginning, “we build through the draft.” Isn’t he delivering on his promise that way? — @justabearfan
Yes and no. You can make a case the Bears haven’t built much to this point when you consider they won three games last season and are stuck on four wins this season with two weeks to go. Defensive end Akiem Hicks has been a terrific addition via free agency and inside linebacker Danny Trevathan has been a key player in the middle of the defense. Right tackle Bobby Massie has been solid this season and with the exception of some recent penalties by cornerback Prince Amukamara, I think he’s helped improve the defense. The issue is there has been a lot of money invested in some players that have provided very little in return. Mike Glennon, Markus Wheaton, Eddie Royal, Marcus Cooper, Quintin Demps, Antrel Rolle, Alan Ball have pulled in a lot of money and offered little in return. You can make a strong case that Pernell McPhee was a poor signing for the Bears and I don’t know that they’re getting appropriate value from tight end Dion Sims, who was signed for $10 million guaranteed. A good GM has to strike a balance between the draft and free agency and find hits in all areas. No one is going to be perfect and you make the valid and important point that the free-agent misses Pace has made have not affected the club long-term. That being said, I think the Bears need to evaluate a little of their approach in free agency with a goal of achieving better returns on their investments. The coaches play a part in this too.
What is the main reason the Bears can hardly win any games this year? — @blizzdog
You must be new around here.
How would you rank Chicago’s offseason free-agent signings based on their performances thus far this season? — @jackjova
I am assuming you are asking me to rank the free-agent additions that have been made to the roster for this season. I’ll rank the March signings according to the production and the contract in order of best signing to worst signing: Kendall Wright, Prince Amukamara, Dion Sims, Benny Cunningham, Tom Compton, Quintin Demps, Mark Sanchez, John Jenkins, Markus Wheaton, Marcus Cooper, Mike Glennon. The Bears have to hope a similar list at this time next year is more top heavy with significant contributors.
I do not find it easy to determine how much of the Bears' offensive woes can be directly pinned on Dowell Loggains, given their myriad problems. Nonetheless, it seems to me that he deserves a good bit of blame, and I hope he and John Fox are gone next year. Here's my thought experiment: Let's say that Adam Gase was never hired as the head coach of Miami and was still running his offense here in Chicago as the offensive coordinator. All else staying the same, how much better do you think the Bears' offense would look? Do you think the Bears could actually be an eight-win team, even with all the injuries and inexperience? — Peter M., Chicago
I appreciate the well thought out question but this goes pretty deep into a hypothetical that isn’t really reasonable. I say that because if the Dolphins did not hire Gase after the 2015 season, I think it’s pretty fair to say another team would have scooped him up. Would Gase be considered a better option than Loggains? Sure. But the Bears didn’t have a great record with Gase when he was in town and ultimately the NFL is a players’ league. The teams with the best players generally win on Sundays. Can coaching make a difference? No doubt about it. But elite quarterback play is the biggest factor in the outcome of games and that is why the Bears are hoping like heck Mitch Trubisky develops into the kind of star they project. I find it impossible to believe the Bears could have been an eight-win team last season with all of the injuries and they’re so short on firepower this season, I don’t know if the reincarnation of Don Coryell on offense could coax eight wins out of this bunch this year.
What’s the Bears biggest need in the draft and what position do u predict they draft first? — @micah01009149
Their biggest need is wide receiver. Their next biggest needs are cornerback and edge rusher. It’s impossible to say which position will be drafted first. Some believe there might be only one wide receiver worthy of a first-round pick in the draft this coming spring. The Bears need to get an impact player no matter which direction they go. Here’s some good news: We could see two or three quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 and the more quarterbacks that are drafted, the more premium talent at other positions will be there for the Bears to consider.
If the Bears want a top quality coaching candidate don’t they need to either sign Ryan Pace to an extension or fire him? — @occamsdragon
Pace’s status with a contract that runs through the 2019 season will certainly be a factor for head-coaching candidates to consider. As I said above, it’s impossible to say what is going to happen with the GM right now but I tend to think he is safe moving ahead to 2018. Has he done enough at this point to justify signing him beyond 2019? I think even Pace would admit the record of the team doesn’t justify an extension. We’ll see what pans out.
Could the Bears be severely holding back Mitch Trubisky’s development? I took a look at Carson Wentz's rookie season and he had three two-interception games and one three-interception game with 607 passing attempts for the year. For sure, every QB is different but it seems the Bears are preventing him from making mistakes when he can learn from them and one thing about Trubisky is he has picked things up as the season has progressed. — Elijah, Chicago
“Severely” holding back his development? I think that’s probably a little over the top. I agree, it would have been nice to see Trubisky have the chance to cut things loose a little bit more this season but I don’t know that his rookie season is going to be a negative for him moving forward. He’s had a great attitude about everything that he has encountered and barring something unexpected, he will have 12 starts under his belt at the end of the season. Will he get 607 passing attempts? No. He’s only got 271 attempts to this point so he probably finishes with somewhere around 325 or so. That’s a lot of action for a rookie quarterback. The biggest challenge Trubisky will face in the offseason is learning a new offense after what is an expected coaching change.
Water cooler opinion has the Bears taking a WR like Calvin Ridley or Courtland Sutton with their 1st pick in the 2018 draft, but I think there's real danger in putting too many eggs in the Mitch Trubisky basket. You don't have to do much digging to see that impact receivers can be found throughout draft weekend. I think the wobbly state of the Bears’ 3rd down defense indicates a more pressing need for a dynamic pass rusher opposite Leonard Floyd. I've lost count of all the times Bears' opponents have flipped the field and, at best, put the Bears' offense in unfavorable field position to begin drives. Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford aren't going anywhere, which is why nabbing a guy like NC State's Bradley Chubb or LSU's Arden Key makes sense to me in the first round. Your thoughts? — David D., Rogers Park
I’m always an advocate when it comes to the opportunity to add an impact pass rusher. No question the Bears need to add some more juice to their pass rush and they need more from Floyd in 2018 when he starts his third season. I don’t think it’s a longshot at all that the Bears could go after a pass rusher with their first-round pick. There is also a bust factor that comes with first-round wide receivers. Look at what the top wide receivers from this past draft have done. Not a whole lot. I could easily see the Bears targeting a pass rusher, a cornerback or perhaps even an offensive lineman in the first round.
How many place kickers are the Bears currently paying? Could it be four? Connor Barth, Roberto Aguayo, Cairo Santos and Mike Nugent. If one of the reasons Robbie Gould was cut was money, how can this be saving any money? Ryan Pace and John Fox completely mismanaged this one. — Dennis D., Parts Unknown
The Bears are currently paying two kickers – Santos and Nugent – and it is my belief both are making the minimum salary for their experience. Barth is no longer being paid. His deal included $155,000 guaranteed and that ran out well before he was released. The Bears were also on the hook for the vast majority of the $428,000 guarantee they inherited with Aguayo when they made the mistake of claiming him off waivers from the Buccaneers. Aguayo spent time on Carolina’s practice squad and it’s my belief the minimal money he received from the Panthers reduced by a small amount what the Bears were required to pay him. I don’t think the Gould move was really based on money and, yes, it’s been well established that the Bears made an error at kicker.
bmbiggs@chicagotribune.com
Twitter @bradbiggs