Last season we ranked #11 in the NFL in rushing yards (LINK). Forte, an incredible talent, is gone. The Oline will be changed... Matt Slauson is gone and Cody Whitehair is a green-as-a-gourd rookie. Larsen and Massie are in the mix now. We will have a RB by committee running game with Lanford/Carey/Howard. OL depth is not so hot either.
How will all of this shake out? Will we be about the same (11th in the NFL)?
Or will be we better or worse?
It will be fun to re-visit this thread at the end of the season and see how our predictions panned out.
I would be content if we make it around the same, so 10th place
Me too. But my gut feeling is that we will actually do better than that 115 YPG of last season. For two reasons.
1. The run blocking should be better. 2. We will sustain drives a bit better due to the run game being more of a threat in short yardage situations (I know, I must sound like I'm on drugs this morning when I say this :-) 3. I think Fox will double-down on the run game this year, and the unit will be better executing it too.
I would be content if we make it around the same, so 10th place
Me too. But my gut feeling is that we will actually do better than that 115 YPG of last season. For two reasons.
1. The run blocking should be better. 2. We will sustain drives a bit better due to the run game being more of a threat in short yardage situations (I know, I must sound like I'm on drugs this morning when I say this :-) 3. I think Fox will double-down on the run game this year, and the unit will be better executing it too.
LOL, maybe this is just a pipe dream though :-)
JABF, it's possible for us to do better than 115 YPG and still not be a top 10 rushing team as it's not a static benchmark. I also don't think it's unlikely we have more carries this year but fewer overall yards as we transition into a new blocking scheme and a mostly reconfigured offensive line.
With that said, I'm skeptical of The Log and his offensive play calling abilities. He's known as a predictable play caller who likes to run the ball but in looking at his brief stint as an OC for the Titans the overall number of carries was not far off that of other teams in the NFL despite having a healthy and young Chris Johnson.
The 2012-13 Titans ran the ball 378 times and threw the ball 539 times (318 receptions) The 2015-16 Bears ran the ball 468 times and threw the ball 519 times (334 receptions)
Projecting this team's year end stats is difficult as it's so dependent on health and success. Last year, I think the main reason we ran the ball so much was because of the epidemic to our receiving core. I think the number of carries this year declines if we have more health at WR. Having fewer rushing attempts though doesn't necessarily mean fewer yards. In fact, within reason it can often mean more yards as defenses are respecting the passing game allowing fewer initial contact points for RBs and their blockers.
In short, I think we run the ball less (probably closer to 400 carries), pass the ball more, and fall on the league rushing board to around 11-15.
Me too. But my gut feeling is that we will actually do better than that 115 YPG of last season. For two reasons.
1. The run blocking should be better. 2. We will sustain drives a bit better due to the run game being more of a threat in short yardage situations (I know, I must sound like I'm on drugs this morning when I say this :-) 3. I think Fox will double-down on the run game this year, and the unit will be better executing it too.
LOL, maybe this is just a pipe dream though :-)
JABF, it's possible for us to do better than 115 YPG and still not be a top 10 rushing team as it's not a static benchmark. I also don't think it's unlikely we have more carries this year but fewer overall yards as we transition into a new blocking scheme and a mostly reconfigured offensive line.
With that said, I'm skeptical of The Log and his offensive play calling abilities. He's known as a predictable play caller who likes to run the ball but in looking at his brief stint as an OC for the Titans the overall number of carries was not far off that of other teams in the NFL despite having a healthy and young Chris Johnson.
The 2012-13 Titans ran the ball 378 times and threw the ball 539 times (318 receptions) The 2015-16 Bears ran the ball 468 times and threw the ball 519 times (334 receptions)
Projecting this team's year end stats is difficult as it's so dependent on health and success. Last year, I think the main reason we ran the ball so much was because of the epidemic to our receiving core. I think the number of carries this year declines if we have more health at WR. Having fewer rushing attempts though doesn't necessarily mean fewer yards. In fact, within reason it can often mean more yards as defenses are respecting the passing game allowing fewer initial contact points for RBs and their blockers.
In short, I think we run the ball less (probably closer to 400 carries), pass the ball more, and fall on the league rushing board to around 11-15.
That makes sense (fewer carries) for the reasons you point out. But let me ask you this. If we are more consistently successful executing run plays (granted, a big "if" there) couldn't we end up with more run plays due to longer drives being sustained? My dream would be to have the Bears sustain drives better. Move the chains better. Due to a better success running the ball, rather than just calling a bunch of run plays due to injured receivers, and a bunch of dead drives and 3-and-outs killing us.
I won't try to predict it because to me the entire OL is too unsettled yet to have a feel for how well they grasp and can execute that zone scheme. We have the right RBs for it now but the OL still needs to create the running lanes for them and the backs need to have the vision and the burst to take advantage of them.
Fox prefers to run the ball and control the TOP and in Loggains I think he actually has more of the type of OC he prefers. Loggains may be less creative than Gase was because he seems to be more of a throw back type OC who depends more on perfect execution than raw deception as far as his schemes and play calling goes.
I think the hiring of another old school type taskmaster in CJ as a WR coach was also another Fox inspired move. I think the offensive players are gonna get schooled in some football fundamentals and be consistently faced with evaluations on how well they execute the basics of running their plays. For once I think these younger players will get the coaching they need to develop correctly.
There's one more wild card in play now that could also come into play. No doubt Pace has an interest in Josh Sitton or he wouldn't have asked him in for a serious talk less than 24 hours after he was released. If they can come to terms with him he adds another element to that OL now and for the foreseeable future. Even at age 30 if he's healthy he has several more years of productive play in him and maybe more if he can move to OC which may be on Pace's mind. Or they play him at OG which mean Long could once again move to OT. He's being paid like one now.
This deal with Sitton is worth keeping an eye on. I would have thought we'd have had to wait 'til next spring to get a shot at a vet OL in FA but this could be and early gift. I just don't know yet.
...This deal with Sitton is worth keeping an eye on. I would have thought we'd have had to wait 'til next spring to get a shot at a vet OL in FA but this could be and early gift. I just don't know yet.
I've been checking my Twitter feed all afternoon waiting for news to break. I'm extremely excited about this possibility as it projects to really stabilize the situation on the O-Line.
The addition of a vet stud guard really creates a lot of mix and match possibilities and creates a great buffer in the event of injuries.
I think it's a move Pace needs to make especially with Long's shoulder the way it is and the unfortunate ACL tear to Grasu. This is falling into Pace's lap. To Pace's credit, he's done a good job of keeping money available to easily make a move like this to secure a positional weakness.
I know there are a lot of kinks to work out and Sitton is 30 years old, but OL who are relatively healthy can play effectively into their mid 30s. I'm in favor of the move. Still, admittedly, I have limited knowledge of the situation. I'll trust Pace to make the right call.
Last season we ranked #11 in the NFL in rushing yards (LINK). Forte, an incredible talent, is gone. The Oline will be changed... Matt Slauson is gone and Cody Whitehair is a green-as-a-gourd rookie. Larsen and Massie are in the mix now. We will have a RB by committee running game with Lanford/Carey/Howard. OL depth is not so hot either.
How will all of this shake out? Will we be about the same (11th in the NFL)?
Or will be we better or worse?
It will be fun to re-visit this thread at the end of the season and see how our predictions panned out.
What rushing game because Forte damn sure was any kind of rushing RB, sure he is by far the best over all Running Back in the NFL last year, but that doesn't make him an AP by a very long shot.
Post by xaosgorilla on Sept 5, 2016 2:28:03 GMT -6
I agree with blueshoes. Also, Loggains is unlikely to have the same reputation within the team as Gase had. Couple that with Fox being a conservative/defensive minded coach and that makes it highly likely that there will be more run attempts.