Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2017 0:57:34 GMT -6
Mon Feb. 27, 2017
The Book on Draft Prospects, According to Mike Mayock
By; Peter King of SI.
Heading into the combine, the NFL Network analyst spreads the good word on the best quarterback, the deepest position group and more.
Never been a big combine fan. I’ve always felt it (in part) bastardizes the draft class by getting fans and some scouts and coaches all heated up when some average college player runs fast and jumps high in Indianapolis, and pushes that so-so player up the draft board. Gratuitously.
Stephen Hill. 2012. Georgia Tech receiver. Caught 49 passes in his college career. Big guy: 6'4", 215. Ran a 4.30 and 4.31 in the 40-yard dash at Indy. Much frothing over Hill around Lucas Oil Stadium. Jets traded second-, fifth- and seventh-round picks to move up to take Hill in the second round. Hill caught 45 NFL passes, total. Out of football now.
But it is the start of the draft season, and I do have an inordinate amount of respect for Mike Mayock, who cares so much about his craft and is not afraid to admit when he errs—as he did publicly and with much hand-wringing about thinking Johnny Manziel had turned his life around three years ago.
Mike Mayock is the lead analyst of the NFL Network’s draft coverage. So when he says this from his Pennsylvania bunker, taking a break on Friday from watching five game tapes of every prospect of import, I listen:
“This is as good and as deep a class as I’ve seen in a draft in several years—with the exception of quarterback and offensive line. Running backs and tight ends, top end and depth are outstanding. Tight ends—I haven’t seen a group like this in years. Wide receivers, very good. Defensively, it’s unbelievable. The edge rushers … we haven’t seen a group like this in a long, long time. You’ll be able to get a starting edge rusher in the fourth round that last year or most drafts you’d compare to an edge rusher in the second round. Cornerbacks and safeties, it’s the best I’ve seen in 10 years at least.”
Hmmm. With some Stephen Hill-ian perspective, let’s go over the Ten Things Mayock Thinks About the 2017 NFL scouting combine.
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• Mayock thinks he has no idea which quarterback is best. “Not a great class, but it doesn’t mean there isn’t talent there,” he said. “The talent at the top end is not ready to contribute anytime soon. Two or three years down road, though, is your owner patient? Your fan base patient?”
Mayock says put DeShone Kizer of Notre Dame, Mitch Trubisky of North Carolina, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and Texas Tech’s Pat Mahomes in any order. “I do top-five lists, and this was the toughest I ever remember at any position. An intriguing class, for different reasons. All have holes in their games, all a little inexperienced.” This was the best thing Mayock said: “I try to focus so that I am not mired in old-school philosophy. But one thing that really bothers me is a one-year starter at the quarterback position. I like Trubisky, but 13 college starts bothers me for a top 10-pick. Look at his bowl game against Stanford. Some great throws in the last two minutes. But also a throw on a wheel route that a DB returned for a pick-six. What’s he thinking?” Kizer, he says, is the most compelling. “I think he has the most upside, the highest ceiling. But he is 12-11 as a starter at Notre Dame. He played a lot of bad football with the game on the line in the fourth quarter this year. That is not acceptable. But he is 6'5", 235. He has that kind of prototypical franchise quarterback look, a Philip Rivers type … if he gets everything right.”
• Mayock thinks he is fascinated by Deshaun Watson. “The positives I love: 28-2 as a starter in the last two seasons, played his best when the lights were brightest, embraces the moment—and you cannot discount that. As you watch him play, what it really comes down to: He’s gonna have the same conversation in draft rooms as Jared Goff, Marcus Mariota, RG3, Johnny Manziel, all of these spread quarterbacks: Can he win from the pocket? I’ve done five games of his. When his post-snap look matches up with pre-snap, when he gets what he thinks he’s gonna get, he can make every throw with accuracy on all three levels, no question. When his post-snap look is different from pre-snap, he struggles.”
• Mayock thinks the backs are dreamy. “There are five backs this year that you can give a first-round grade,” he said, “and the average number of backs to go in the first round in the last five years is 1.2.” He has Florida State’s Dalvin Cook one and all-world Leonard Fournette of LSU two, because he thinks Cook’s a better all-around back and has been healthier. To get the value out of Fournette, he says, you must treat him like Ezekiel Elliott and plan for 25 touches a game. He also likes Alvin Kamara of Tennessee and thinks without the off-field problems Joe Mixon would be a first-round pick. With the problems? Maybe in the Tyreek Hill, fifth-round range.
• Mayock thinks Christian McCaffrey is a great match for the team picking 32nd. I said to Mayock, “Wouldn’t New England—where every game plan is a snowflake, so different and so diverse—be a perfect landing spot for McCaffrey?” The Patriots select last in the first round, and Mayock said: “I would be surprised if he lasted that long, but I am in 100 percent agreement with you. The NFL’s become a matchup league, and Christian McCaffrey is a matchup player. You can line him up anywhere: the I, slot, all the way out wide, sidecar to QB, he becomes a chess piece for a smart offensive mind. He will run 4.5 or better, and I’ve never seen him get caught from behind. He’s going to be a very good NFL player.”
• Mayock thinks the lesser wideouts will be very good pros. He’s like everyone: Mike Williams (Clemson), Corey Davis (Western Michigan) and John Ross (Washington) are the cream. But at the Senior Bowl, Mayock fell in love with two great-hands guys: Cooper Kupp of Eastern Washington and Zay Jones of East Carolina. “Every year, when Eastern Washington played a PAC-12 school, Cupp dominated, so that eliminated any question to me about level of competition,” Mayock said. “Zay Jones … what hands. No fear.”
• Mayock thinks the edge guys could set a record this year. It’s not surprising to say seven or eight defensive linemen could go in the first round. But seven or eight pass-rushers in the first round? That’s a great class. Mayock said he would be surprised if the Browns do not stick at number one and take Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett, who at 252 pounds is six pounds heavier than Von Miller was at the combine six years ago, and was just as impactful around the corner as Miller was in college. The first pick, Mayock thinks, will be one of two players: Garrett or Alabama defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. That leads us to a non-first-rounder, but one of Mayock’s favorites …
• Mayock is a Philly guy, so forgive him for this, but he thinks the hidden gem in the edge class and maybe the draft is a guy from his ’hood (Villanova). The son of a chemist from Uganda and economist from Ivory Coast, rusher Tanoh Kpassagnon (repeat after me: TAWN-o pass-N-yoh) had 21 tackles for loss at the I-AA level last year. “He has no idea what he’s doing,” said Mayock, “but he was really good at the Senior Bowl, and it’ll be interesting to see what he runs. Lots of teams love him.” Look for him to go in the late-second-round range.
• Mayock thinks J.J. Watt’s brother could sneak into the first round. “He could,” Mayock said. Wisconsin linebacker T.J. Watt declared early for the draft after one very good pass-rush season (15.5 tackles for loss, including 11.5 sacks). Like his brother, T.J. is a Tazmanian Devil in terms of motor, but Mayock compares him to another frenetic player. “The easy comparison is [Green Bay’s] Clay Matthews. He’s an edge rusher who fits best into a 3-4 system. He has a similar game to Clay—an edge who can drop in coverage and has a motor that just won’t stop.”
• Mayock thinks the defensive backfield will be fascinating in Indy. Think of these two Swiss army-knife players: Jabrill Peppers of Michigan and UConn’s Obi Melifonwu. Peppers was king of the versatile guys going into the Senior Bowl—he is probably the third safety in the crop, and could play nickel or even a light linebacker. But Melifonwu could run in the low 4.4s, and if he does, the buzz will start about trying him at corner. That’s crazy talk, a 6'4", 219-pound guy playing NFL corner, but imagine the matchup nightmare he’d be if he had the quickness to cover quick-twitch tall receivers. Of course, no one in the NFL does that, and even the 6'1" Jalen Collins got beaten on dig routes and double-moves in the Super Bowl by Tom Brady. So no one knows if the college safety could transition to cornerback. But as Mayock said. “I know NFL guys who think, ‘I’d love to try him [at corner]. Let’s see if he fails.’ That’s where the NFL is going. A big, very athletic guy, and instead of thinking him automatically as a safety who may be able to play linebacker, now we’re thinking of him as a safety who just might be able to play cornerback.”
• Mayock thinks the elephant in the room might be best off being out of the room. Two elephants, actually. Quarterback Chad Kelly and running back Joe Mixon, in particular, are two good prospects who won’t be in Indianapolis because they’ve had major disciplinary and/or criminal problems off the field. “Remember Michael Sam?” Mayock said. “For him it was a circus at the combine. Here is what I think is going on, and it’s worth a conversation. I almost think it’s an advantage Mixon won’t be there. He won’t get poked and prodded from 5 in the morning to midnight for two days at the combine. He won’t deal with all the questions from all the teams. We know Joe Mixon is gonna be in the NFL next year. Tyreek Hill went in the fifth round last year, after all his trouble in college, and the Chiefs got away with one, and he’s been clean off the field since the draft. Every team will vet him.”
Mixon punched a woman in the face in 2014 and was kicked off the Oklahoma team for the season. He did later return, but the video of the incident has haunted him and caused the NFL to ban him from the combine. Albert Breer of The MMQB spoke to Mixon, who said he was not upset about being excluded from the combine. “It’s not in my hands, to make that decision,” Mixon told Breer. “At the end of the day, I respect the NFL not inviting me. And I’ve got another opportunity to show what I can do, at the pro day … They came up with a decision. And like I said, I respect it.”
Breer will write in-depth about Mixon later this week here at The MMQB. For now, be ready to get inundated by combine talk. Mayock and NFL Network will bring the event into living rooms Friday through Monday, beginning at 9 a.m.
We’ll have staffers of The MMQB on hand, writing later this week. We’ve got some good stories working, so check back often.