Notice I am NOT asking when will he be at his ceiling. This is a totally different question. When will they be able to realistically predict what his ceiling is in the NFL? When will they know they need to begin the process to bring in another QB, or will confidently know Mitch is "The Guy" who will lead us to a Super Bowl championship?
And I only picked after this season because they really have no other choice. Honestly they know now.
Its a trick question. They knew what his ceiling was before they drafted him. the question should be when and if he can reach that ceiling. They cannot know that know, kid was to inexperienced coming out of college. It normallly takes 48 NFL games(3yrs) to know what you have in a player, and that's w/2-3 years of college starting. Mitch hasn't had 3yrs , and only had 1yr college experience.
Again, I'll point out it's why I didn't think he should be the first taken, and was on the fense w/him and Watson as the guy I would want. Also wanted them to trade back and garner more picks; but most of all I wanted them to get their guy and not settle on someone else. All reports were Mitch had the higher upside, but was super raw, Watson was day 1 ready but had some questions about his cieling.
And I only picked after this season because they really have no other choice. Honestly they know now.
Its a trick question. They knew what his ceiling was before they drafted him. the question should be when and if he can reach that ceiling. They cannot know that now, kid was too inexperienced coming out of college. It normallly takes 48 NFL games(3yrs) to know what you have in a player, and that's w/2-3 years of college starting. Mitch hasn't had 3yrs , and only had 1yr college experience. Again, I'll point out it's why I didn't think he should be the first taken, and was on the fence w/him and Watson as the guy I would want. Also wanted them to trade back and garner more picks; but most of all I wanted them to get their guy and not settle on someone else. All reports were Mitch had the higher upside, but was super raw, Watson was day 1 ready but had some questions about his ceiling.
That is a critically important point. Ryan Pace knowingly chose to go with a guy who was more inexperienced than a typical draftee QB. Even an experienced college QB is a roll of the dice. Going with a raw QB like Mitch added more risk to the move.
And I so agree with you in that he shouldn't have been the first taken, because even if Mitch does eventually, in some future season, turn out to be good - there will have been seasons lost while he is being "developed" to where he can lead an offense at a super bowl level.
That's a problem.
Why draft a super raw kid like that? Drafting a solid QB is a tough enough task without saddling yourself with that burden.
I realize hindsight is 20/20 and not fair to go down that road. But I wish Nagy could have had input into picking his guy. I don't think he would have picked Mitch.
It's like the Bears are cursed when it comes to QB here in Chicago.
Its a trick question. They knew what his ceiling was before they drafted him. the question should be when and if he can reach that ceiling. They cannot know that now, kid was too inexperienced coming out of college. It normallly takes 48 NFL games(3yrs) to know what you have in a player, and that's w/2-3 years of college starting. Mitch hasn't had 3yrs , and only had 1yr college experience. Again, I'll point out it's why I didn't think he should be the first taken, and was on the fence w/him and Watson as the guy I would want. Also wanted them to trade back and garner more picks; but most of all I wanted them to get their guy and not settle on someone else. All reports were Mitch had the higher upside, but was super raw, Watson was day 1 ready but had some questions about his ceiling.
That is a critically important point. The Ryan Pace knowingly chose to go with a guy who was more inexperienced than a typical draftee QB. Even an experienced college QB is a roll of the dice. Going with a raw QB like Mitch added more risk to the move.
And I so agree with you in that he shouldn't have been the first taken, because even if Mitch does eventually, in some future season, turn out to be good - there will have been seasons lost while he is being "developed" to where he can lead an offense at a super bowl level.
That's a problem.
Why draft a super raw kid like that? Drafting a solid QB is a tough enough task without saddling yourself with that burden.
I realize hindsight is 20/20 and not fair to go down that road. But I wish Nagy could have had input into picking his guy. I don't think he would have picked Mitch.
It's like the Bears are cursed when it comes to QB here in Chicago.
Again to be fair, the Bears/Pace weren't the only ones looking at taking Mitch first, they just won out on the ability to do so. Actually saw some tweets recently that said KC was willing to trade Mahomes and a first for Mitch to the Bears that draft night. So you now have Cle and KC and Chicago all looking at Mitch as the primary qb to take.
Again, I cannot state this enough, I'm 100% sure that Mahomes isn't dropping 5k yards and 40-50td's in Chicago. He doesn't have the talent around him, he doesn't have the system in place day 1 and he doesn't get the chance to sit 1yr and just learn how the system is played w/all those players. Would he be better then Mitch, probably, or maybe he's another Cutler that doesn't live up to his ceiling tossing tons of turn overs b/c he's playing year one in Loggains O w/no NFL WR talent, and then learning a new O system w/all the talent around him learning the system w/him; and that talent isn't as good as KC.
Would Mitch be doing 4-5k in yards and 40-50 td's in KC? No, but my guess is he's doing 3-4k and 25-35 td's, he sits and learns for a year and gets all those weapons to throw to that already know where they are supposed to be. This stuff is way to fluid to say as simple as x great player is going to be great anywhere they go. It just doesn't work that way in football.
I expect 1 of 2 possible scenarios to happen at the end of this season:
1. After Pace and Nagy evaluate Trubisky's 2019 season they will see that he is going to be able to reach a ceiling here that is solid. If this scenario happens then no worries for Pace/Nagy, they just continue to upgrade the supporting talent around Mitch (OL, TE, whatever). Then they sit back and watch Mitch continue to show improvement in 2020 and beyond. Bears got 'er done at QB.
2. After Pace and Nagy evaluate Trubisky's 2019 season they will see that he is not going to be able to reach a ceiling here that is solid. If this 2nd scenario happens then it creates bigtime worries for Pace/Nagy. They will know at that point that the Bears do not have a franchise QB on the roster and the monumental task of getting one, now continues. Easier said than done. It's like searching for the Holy Grail and never finding it.
Pace drafted Trubisky knowing he was extra-raw as a draftee, but believed he had a high ceiling. Believing is nice, but all draftee QBs are a roll of the dice to some extent and many bust at the NFL level - even if they are not extra-raw like Trubisky was, so Pace is watching to see if his QB pick, will in fact, have that hoped for ceiling Pace had on draft day 3 years ago. Hope isn't the same as evidence. After a 3-year body of work is completed at the end of this season, Pace and Nagy will review the hard evidence of Trubisky's production and growth - or lack of it. They will have a much more accurate estimate of his ceiling than back on draft day when Nagy wasn't even a Bear's coach.
Clarity will come at the end of this season. The remaining games are important for Mitch to show evidence - hard evidence - of his potential here in Chicago.
To me the potential challenge with Mitch comes up with the next contract. They knew going in about his lack of overall experience, where they may have failed is understanding if he’d be “the guy”, or not, in time for the contract.
Post by paytonisgod on Oct 10, 2019 19:55:02 GMT -6
The problem I'm seeing with Mitch is that it's going to be very hard to find the ceiling because he so inconsistent. Sometimes he makes incredible throws or plays and other times he'll do something stupid or even terrible.
So the question becomes how much inconsistency can they tolerate? How much good does he need to show to counter the bad? How much bad is just too much regardless of the good?
I know people don't want to hear it but Mitch right now is very much like Cutler (although thankfully less turnover prone so far). Frustratingly inconsistent with the occasional flashes of brilliance. On the upside Mitch has the advantage of more talent both on field and off which help flatten out some of his valleys. He's also not being asked to carry the offense by himself.
This doesn't mean we can't get to the Super Bowl with him. Far worse QBs have got their teams in the Super Bowl. Recent struggles aside the Bears have what looks like a pretty solid all around team. But it does mean the rest of team is going to have to be good enough to make up for his deficiencies.
One positive is that Mitch will face a lot of the best teams in these final 11 games. It's an opportunity to see how he responds. The bye week came at a good time this year considering the team needs to reset and clean some things up. I keep thinking the OL will play better than it has. That should help the run game which helps Mitch. I'll bet Nagy will help with better play calling.
To me the potential challenge with Mitch comes up with the next contract. They knew going in about his lack of overall experience, where they may have failed is understanding if he’d be “the guy”, or not, in time for the contract.
This coming offseason is the first MT would be eligible for an extension. Barring a miracle turnaround this season, that's not gonna happen. They're gonna do what they did with Floyd--exercise the 5th year option (which can later be rescinded for any reason except injury) and kick the can down the road a year.
After the 2020 season you can't delay any longer and a decision has to made one way or another. Problem is, I don't see how they can generate any real competition at the QB position between now and then to make that a truly fair and genuine choice. I have no problem giving MT a 4th year but it sure would be nice if somehow that 4th year wasn't just handed to him and he had to beat out a competitor and prove himself.
I guess that's a nice way of saying that Mitch, unless he really ramps up the rest of this season, hasn't shown enough to be handed the keys going forward.