The more I think about it, the more I agree with this ^^^^^
The difference in talent or potential from the late-3rd to the upper-4th is generally minimal. I have no problem Pace sticking at 87 if there's a guy there he really really likes but if the board looks meh I'd sure rather have 3 4ths than 1 3rd and 1 4th.
Not postimg this because I disagree with you. I am not a big fan of trading down just to trade down. Frankly, this year I could really go either way. Basically I would be looking for depths and prospects, which aren't always the same thing.
I'd actually slide more towards your position this year. This is from 2015 by the way:
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
The difference in talent or potential from the late-3rd to the upper-4th is generally minimal. I have no problem Pace sticking at 87 if there's a guy there he really really likes but if the board looks meh I'd sure rather have 3 4ths than 1 3rd and 1 4th.
Not postimg this because I disagree with you. I am not a big fan of trading down just to trade down. Frankly, this year I could really go either way. Basically I would be looking for depths and prospects, which aren't always the same thing.
I'd actually slide more towards your position this year. This is from 2015 by the way:
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
Those numbers are fascinating with the positional breakdown. The difference between 3rd and 4th round is substantial for some positions, yet other positional success is not so much of a dropoff. I agree with you that you don't trade down just to trade down. Pace and our scouting department will do the right thing and not trade down unless they feel they can get the guys they want and need in spite of a tradedown. LOL, with Pace he may do anything - trade up, trade down, or just stand pat :-)
Not postimg this because I disagree with you. I am not a big fan of trading down just to trade down. Frankly, this year I could really go either way. Basically I would be looking for depths and prospects, which aren't always the same thing.
I'd actually slide more towards your position this year. This is from 2015 by the way:
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
Those numbers are fascinating with the positional breakdown. The difference between 3rd and 4th round is substantial for some positions, yet other positional success is not so much of a dropoff. I agree with you that you don't trade down just to trade down. Pace and our scouting department will do the right thing and not trade down unless they feel they can get the guys they want and need in spite of a tradedown. LOL, with Pace he may do anything - trade up, trade down, or just stand pat :-)
I really really hope Pace isn't entertaining trading up. Any significant move would almost certainly require trading away a 2nd round pick from next year. If he does that, he better be really freaking sure of who he's targeting. Consider that draft picks, even high 1st rounders, bust all the time for all variety of reasons, that seems like a reckless and terrible risk to take under the circumstances. It's not like we desperately need a QB or pass rusher.
Just let the draft come to you, Ryan. And if there's no one there at 87 who is all that great of a value, trade down and raid the 4th round 3 times.