Interesting stat motm. I mean it does make sense that many teams w/ quick turnarounds have a worse record in year two simply because unlike the previous season, we'll play at least two games against division champs instead of 4th ranked teams.
I think it goes w/out saying that a team that won 12 games out of 16 will likely struggle to win 12 again, the next year, espeically in a worst to 1st situation. Doesn't mean they are going to decline though. If they win 9-10 games and make the playoffs again(which is all that really matters) did they decline? I think you could say that a 9-10 win season vs a 1st place schedule is more impressive then a 12 win season vs a last place schedule, if both make the playoffs. If the Bears win a playoff game next year, or 2. Did they decline; even if they didn't win as many games?
I consider myself more of a realist. I don't look at things from a negative perspective all the time but when the stats show that teams with 7 or more wins follow the next season with an average of 3.5 loses you can't ignore those facts. Everyone here seems to think a team will get better every year no matter what while ignoring other things.
Our defense has to start over with a new DC. Its going to take the first part of the season just for the players to gel with our new coordinator. We're having a much harder schedule compared to last year. Going to lose some key players in FA.
Its really hard to say we can equal our performance from last year unless Trubisky takes that next step. That is the big unknown factor ( Injuries aside ).
I hope we do make the playoffs and I hope we go to the Super Bowl but right now. The stats are not on our side.
The hook on this graph is the "equal or better record" the following year.
Here's a couple links for some of the top one year turnaround teams LINK1 LINK2
Some mentions from the links...
2004 PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-10 TO 15-1) Well yeah they probably aren't going to get 15-1 or 16-0 the following year... BUT they did win a SB in 2005 with a shittier record, and then another one 3 years later.
1999 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (3-13 TO 13-3) Still made the playoffs in 2000...they did dip in 2001 when Edgerrin James only played 6 games, but managed 9 playoff appearances and 2 SB appearances after that.
2008 MIAMI DOLPHINS (1-15 TO 11-5) Didn't do crap after this year but i do believe this year was just a weird coincidence. This was the first year of the WildCat.
Take it for what you will, but the better perspective would be "teams success" for the following 2-3 years or more, rather than the "equal or better record" the following year. Like JABF said, even though he compares to NE lol, but they don't need a better record to have more success next year.
Kind of the point i was saying. i'll take less wins and playoff wins/sb over 15-1 and no limited playoff ins or no sb. Bears got to but didn't win in the playoffs, if they don't win as many games but get a playoff win or 2 it's a better season. 1yr change doesn't mean much, it's the next several years that matter. If they are getting to and winning playoff games then they are better off, even if they never top 12 wins in that timeframe.
and context matters. like you pointed out, miami that was the year after the wildcat, which was never going to be sustainable. Indy lost their primary RB. And 13-15 wins is going to be hard to match/get better then no matter the team.
You are already hoping we lose more games next year. Are you a closet packers fan hoping to jinx us?
You are an interesting person brother. If you need to talk to someone send me a PM, Ill give you my number we can chat if you want?
either the most epic troll ever, or the most pessimistic/negative fan I've ever known. Reminds me of my father in law(not a Bears fan really not a NFL fan) would walk in to the guys watching the game, make a few negative comments, kill the vibe then walk out. In laws said he has always been like that; just a giant vibe killer.
people like your father in law are why i watch the game at home when i can. lol
Post by brasilbear on Feb 13, 2019 13:49:02 GMT -6
This to me is one of those obvious things that people only post to be able to some how claim they predicted it. Bears went 12-4 last season and should (in theory) have a "harder "schedule next season. They also were relatively uninjured this season. Of course they might not go 12-4 again. But winning the division and going 11-5 really doesn't indicate a decline. Neither would 10-6 and winning the division.
We really shouldn't have to explain stuff like this on the board. But what you we expect from people who believe that Hoyer>Rogers and Glennon>Trubisky.
Post by britishbearfan on Feb 13, 2019 13:56:37 GMT -6
It definitely feels like there are more risks to the downside than upside. As others have said we will have a new defensive coaching staff, a tougher schedule and probably a weaker roster and more players out injured.
On the other hand MT10 will have another year's experience and the offense in general will have another year with Nagy which will mitigate this somewhat.
I also believe that factors like how you train and how you build your roster have a big impact on injuries. So I'm hopeful that we will continue to see a better injury record under Nagy than we saw with Fox.
Overall, I'm pretty hopeful that we will have another strong season.
Well, I look at our schedule next year & it might be as tough as anyone's but the more I think about it, the more I think we'll be just as good next year, if not better (as long as we stay relatively healthy). Let's start by taking a look at our (4) loses last year.
Week 1 Bears 23 Packers 24 We blew a 20pt lead in the 3rd quarter against a HOF QB on the road on national TV. IMHO, this team hadn't learned how to close out a game like this yet. GB got the momentum going & we couldn't seem to make the one play to close them out. Fuller dropped gift INT the would've clenched the game comes to mind.
Week 6 Bears 28 Phins 31 OT We started slow in the game but came on big time in the 3rd quarter. If memory serves me correctly we took a 21-13 lead & had a TD called back on a horrible call on a "pick play" on the goal line when #47 on the Dolphins initiated the contact on Burton. Instead of a TD & a 28-13 lead early 4th quarter, Trubisky throws a pick in the end zone of the next play. The defense forgets how to tackle in the heat & we lose in OT.
Week 7 NE 38 Bears 31 We had a 10pt lead but had a KO returned for a TD & a blocked punt returned for a TD & still lost the game by a yard! I think Cohen also had a big fumble stopping a good drive in the 4th.
Week 13 Bears 27 NYG 30 We start the game with our backup QB giving up a pick six but led 14-7 & were dominating late in the 1st half but due to some questionable time management decisions & a Barkley run where half the team seemed to whiff on him we lost momentum right before the end of the half. Showing the true character of this team, we fight back from a 13 pt deficit in the 4th quarter to force OT on the last play of regulation but lose again in OT.
We were never close to being blown out. We could've & probably should've won most if not all those games. I think with another year in Naggy's system this offense could be really good & a lot more consistent. Trubisky should take another big step & if he does this team could be scary good. I think the defense could take a small step back early but might be better as the year goes on than they were this year after getting comfortable in a similar but slightly more aggressive scheme. Also, with the majority of our starters back (if not all) & a few key additions thru FA & the draft, there is no reason we can't be better next season. That doesn't necessarily mean we will win 12 games or more but be a more explosive & deeper team.
Naggy has taught this team how to win & to expect to win. He's made football in Chicago fun again for the players & us fans. Something we haven't had here for several years. He's still learning to be a head coach & should get better & better as well. I, for one, am more excited to be a Bear fan than I have been in years. GO BEARS!
Just by default thanks to different schedules and injury luck, I'd project the Bears to be a 10/11 win team. Improving from a 12-4 team is incredibly tough to do so I would slightly lower my expectations if I were a Bears fan. You never know the NFL, crazy things can happen and the Bears could wind back up with a losing record in 2019.
One team that the one chart in the earlier post must have is the Jaguars... their recent stretch form 2016-2018: 2016: 3-13 (6 straight losing seasons) 2017: 10-6 2018: 5-11
Compare that to the Bears: 2017: 5-11 (4 straight losing seasons) 2018: 12-4 2019: ? - ?
Not that I think the Bears are going to fall off the map like Jacksonville did. I just can't help but remember how confident people were in the Jags before they totally collapsed... of course, the Bears don't have Blake Bortles as their QB and an incompetent HC in Doug Marrone, and while I'm not all that confident in Trubisky, he's not a ticking time bomb like Bortles. I'll have more to say once the preseason concludes and I know what the Bears 53 man roster will look like.