Joint practices with Colts

weneedmorelinemen
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Joint practices with Colts Aug 18, 2023 20:22:49 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by weneedmorelinemen on Aug 18, 2023 20:22:49 GMT -6

Aug 18, 2023 19:33:06 GMT -6 JABF said:

Aug 18, 2023 17:33:39 GMT -6 weneedmorelinemen said:

There is only one ancient poster who would want that. That's good old 63BearsFan. Man, that guy had a different take on players

+1
LOL, he was a character for sure. What the heck was that convoluted "formula" he used to preach to us? I can't remember except for the fact he was a true zealot. Stubborn old coot.

I had forgotten about that, but it was the Dominant Unit Theory (DUT).

Top 5 offense, or top 5 defense, and you could compete for a SB or some nonsense He had something else for having a top 10 O and D. It was something stupid like DU10 or something. It's been, what, 18 years now. Gah.

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Joint practices with Colts Aug 19, 2023 8:54:20 GMT -6 weneedmorelinemen and bears40 like this

Post by JABF on Aug 19, 2023 8:54:20 GMT -6

Aug 18, 2023 20:22:49 GMT -6 weneedmorelinemen said:

Aug 18, 2023 19:33:06 GMT -6 JABF said:

+1
LOL, he was a character for sure. What the heck was that convoluted "formula" he used to preach to us? I can't remember except for the fact he was a true zealot. Stubborn old coot.

I had forgotten about that, but it was the Dominant Unit Theory (DUT).

Top 5 offense, or top 5 defense, and you could compete for a SB or some nonsense He had something else for having a top 10 O and D. It was something stupid like DU10 or something. It's been, what, 18 years now. Gah.

LOL - all I remember is that he was fanatical about his theory, and it was totally Greek to me... I couldn't understand it. Lot's of lengthy posts about it. We DID have quite a menagerie of posters on that old CBMB didn't we? :-)

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brasilbear
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Joint practices with Colts Aug 19, 2023 9:58:24 GMT -6 weneedmorelinemen and Whisky Beer Bob like this

Post by brasilbear on Aug 19, 2023 9:58:24 GMT -6

spend more time thinking about it than I should have this morning.

SPOILER: Click to show

Basically (if I remember it right) he noticed that teams with a top 5 OFF unit or top 5 DEF unit in points scored or points allowed made the playoffs at a higher rate than teams with out a top 5 unit. His conclusion was that you needed a top 5 unit to make the playoffs. He never called it a guarantee but he acted/posted as if it was a sure thing. When challenged he amended it to say a top 5 on either side of the ball OR two top ten units would guarantee a playoff spot. He also claimed at being the top team at stopping the run regardless of anything else would get you into the playoff. he claimed Ted Washington was a sure thing HOFer.

Related to his was his claim that PS and PA were better predictors of playoff teams than wins. This is the fatal flaw. He refused to consider that division winners make the playoff, and each year some division sends a team to the playoffs that is inferior to multiple other teams that didn't make it.

The problem was....his theory was descriptive not predictive but he acted as if it was predictive. Playoff teams, being the better teams, tend to have DEF and OFF units in the top 10. But teams each year ranked top 5 on OFF or DEF don't make the playoffs. [\spoiler]

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dachuckster
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Joint practices with Colts Aug 19, 2023 10:41:53 GMT -6

Post by dachuckster on Aug 19, 2023 10:41:53 GMT -6

Aug 19, 2023 9:58:24 GMT -6 brasilbear said:

spend more time thinking about it than I should have this morning.

SPOILER: Click to show

Basically (if I remember it right) he noticed that teams with a top 5 OFF unit or top 5 DEF unit in points scored or points allowed made the playoffs at a higher rate than teams with out a top 5 unit. His conclusion was that you needed a top 5 unit to make the playoffs. He never called it a guarantee but he acted/posted as if it was a sure thing. When challenged he amended it to say a top 5 on either side of the ball OR two top ten units would guarantee a playoff spot. He also claimed at being the top team at stopping the run regardless of anything else would get you into the playoff. he claimed Ted Washington was a sure thing HOFer.

Related to his was his claim that PS and PA were better predictors of playoff teams than wins. This is the fatal flaw. He refused to consider that division winners make the playoff, and each year some division sends a team to the playoffs that is inferior to multiple other teams that didn't make it.

The problem was....his theory was descriptive not predictive but he acted as if it was predictive. Playoff teams, being the better teams, tend to have DEF and OFF units in the top 10. But teams each year ranked top 5 on OFF or DEF don't make the playoffs.

I've worked on similar kinds of stats multiple times.

I view a team's offensive and defensive rankings as minimum standards for potentially being in the playoffs. Nothing guarantees being in the playoffs except by winning more games than every other team in your division.

But it I believe that if you are in the top 5 offense and top 10 defense you will be in the playoffs something like 90% of the time and you will be in the 2nd round of the payoffs (either by winning the 1st round or by have a 1st round bye) at almost the same frequency (90%). Again, nothing guarantees a playoff berth besides winning more games than everyone else in your division.

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brasilbear
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Joint practices with Colts Aug 19, 2023 11:53:28 GMT -6

Post by brasilbear on Aug 19, 2023 11:53:28 GMT -6

Aug 19, 2023 10:41:53 GMT -6 dachuckster said:

Aug 19, 2023 9:58:24 GMT -6 brasilbear said:

spend more time thinking about it than I should have this morning.

SPOILER: Click to show

Basically (if I remember it right) he noticed that teams with a top 5 OFF unit or top 5 DEF unit in points scored or points allowed made the playoffs at a higher rate than teams with out a top 5 unit. His conclusion was that you needed a top 5 unit to make the playoffs. He never called it a guarantee but he acted/posted as if it was a sure thing. When challenged he amended it to say a top 5 on either side of the ball OR two top ten units would guarantee a playoff spot. He also claimed at being the top team at stopping the run regardless of anything else would get you into the playoff. he claimed Ted Washington was a sure thing HOFer.

Related to his was his claim that PS and PA were better predictors of playoff teams than wins. This is the fatal flaw. He refused to consider that division winners make the playoff, and each year some division sends a team to the playoffs that is inferior to multiple other teams that didn't make it.

The problem was....his theory was descriptive not predictive but he acted as if it was predictive. Playoff teams, being the better teams, tend to have DEF and OFF units in the top 10. But teams each year ranked top 5 on OFF or DEF don't make the playoffs.

I've worked on similar kinds of stats multiple times.

I view a team's offensive and defensive rankings as minimum standards for potentially being in the playoffs. Nothing guarantees being in the playoffs except by winning more games than every other team in your division.

But it I believe that if you are in the top 5 offense and top 10 defense you will be in the playoffs something like 90% of the time and you will be in the 2nd round of the payoffs (either by winning the 1st round or by have a 1st round bye) at almost the same frequency (90%). Again, nothing guarantees a playoff berth besides winning more games than everyone else in your division.

That is the proper way to look at those stats. Unless your division is terrible, you aren't making the playoffs with OFF and DEF ranked outside the top 10. Its a minimum standard. Its descriptive, not predictive. Obviously, I check the Bears rankings each week. But I'm more concerned about their position in the division standings.

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dachuckster
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Joint practices with Colts Aug 19, 2023 13:29:23 GMT -6 JABF and brasilbear like this

Post by dachuckster on Aug 19, 2023 13:29:23 GMT -6

Aug 19, 2023 11:53:28 GMT -6 brasilbear said:

Aug 19, 2023 10:41:53 GMT -6 dachuckster said:

I've worked on similar kinds of stats multiple times.

I view a team's offensive and defensive rankings as minimum standards for potentially being in the playoffs. Nothing guarantees being in the playoffs except by winning more games than every other team in your division.

But it I believe that if you are in the top 5 offense and top 10 defense you will be in the playoffs something like 90% of the time and you will be in the 2nd round of the payoffs (either by winning the 1st round or by have a 1st round bye) at almost the same frequency (90%). Again, nothing guarantees a playoff berth besides winning more games than everyone else in your division.

That is the proper way to look at those stats. Unless your division is terrible, you aren't making the playoffs with OFF and DEF ranked outside the top 10. Its a minimum standard. Its descriptive, not predictive. Obviously, I check the Bears rankings each week. But I'm more concerned about their position in the division standings.

Like I said, I did this research about three times over the year. There has been changes in what levels were required to hit that 90% chance of going past the 1st round of the playoffs.

The top 5 offense and top 10 defense has only been true for the last 10 years or so. If you go back 15 - 20 years, the relative values for the offensive and defensive rankings basically flipped. It went to top 5 defense and top 10 offense. The difference was the rule changes for the protection of QBs and defenseless receivers.

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weneedmorelinemen
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Joint practices with Colts Aug 19, 2023 19:53:04 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by weneedmorelinemen on Aug 19, 2023 19:53:04 GMT -6

Aug 19, 2023 9:58:24 GMT -6 brasilbear said:

spend more time thinking about it than I should have this morning.

SPOILER: Click to show

Basically (if I remember it right) he noticed that teams with a top 5 OFF unit or top 5 DEF unit in points scored or points allowed made the playoffs at a higher rate than teams with out a top 5 unit. His conclusion was that you needed a top 5 unit to make the playoffs. He never called it a guarantee but he acted/posted as if it was a sure thing. When challenged he amended it to say a top 5 on either side of the ball OR two top ten units would guarantee a playoff spot. He also claimed at being the top team at stopping the run regardless of anything else would get you into the playoff. he claimed Ted Washington was a sure thing HOFer.

Related to his was his claim that PS and PA were better predictors of playoff teams than wins. This is the fatal flaw. He refused to consider that division winners make the playoff, and each year some division sends a team to the playoffs that is inferior to multiple other teams that didn't make it.

The problem was....his theory was descriptive not predictive but he acted as if it was predictive. Playoff teams, being the better teams, tend to have DEF and OFF units in the top 10. But teams each year ranked top 5 on OFF or DEF don't make the playoffs. [\spoiler]

Oh wow, the memories of the Duds47/ 63Bearsfan arguments are surfacing.

I want to say one of the arguments of DUT being a pointless stat was comparing it to the idea that teams that run the ball more than 20 times win more games. Like just executing 20 runs doesn't get you the win. It's being up and killing the clock by running the ball is the driving factor.

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Post by weneedmorelinemen on Aug 18, 2023 20:22:49 GMT -6

Post by JABF on Aug 19, 2023 8:54:20 GMT -6

Post by brasilbear on Aug 19, 2023 9:58:24 GMT -6

Post by dachuckster on Aug 19, 2023 10:41:53 GMT -6

Post by brasilbear on Aug 19, 2023 11:53:28 GMT -6

Post by dachuckster on Aug 19, 2023 13:29:23 GMT -6

Post by weneedmorelinemen on Aug 19, 2023 19:53:04 GMT -6